CREATING A ‘DEMAND-DRIVEN’ SYSTEM:An analysis of the early effects of Australia’spolicy for growing participation andattai...
The Australian Higher Education Changes•   Targets for expansion:    – 40% attainment (age 25-34) by 2025       – Rising t...
Themes for policy change• Expand the supply of graduates• Universities to compete for students based on quality and nature...
The impact of the changes• Undergraduate places• Access by socio economic background• Balance of disciplines• Size of univ...
Undergraduate places, 2007 to 2012 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000      0           2007   2008   2009   2...
Growth in Government funded undergraduateplaces 2009 to 2012                    2009      2010      2011      2012Actual p...
Low Socio-Economic Status Enrolments     120,000                                                                 25.0%    ...
Commencing Student Load 2007-2011    Domestic Undergraduate by selected Broad Field of Education35,00030,00025,00020,00015...
Change in Commencing Student Load 2009-2011        Domestic Undergraduate by selected Broad Field of Education            ...
Growth by location of university250,000200,000150,000                                Inner urban                          ...
Relationship size to growth60%50%40%30%20%10% 0%       0   5,000   10,000     15,000   20,000   25,000-10%
The impact of the changes• Undergraduate places• Access by socio economic background• Balance of disciplines• Size of univ...
Implications from further expansion• ‘quality’ of who enters  – 40% attainment means a wide range of students    – Most in...
A scheme for the future or half way tosomewhere else?• Assumption that Government can fund all demand• Options for highly ...
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Creating a ‘demand-driven’ system: An analysis of the early effects of Australia’s policy for growing participation and attainment - Conor King

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  • Creating a ‘demand-driven’ system: An analysis of the early effects of Australia’s policy for growing participation and attainment - Conor King

    1. 1. CREATING A ‘DEMAND-DRIVEN’ SYSTEM:An analysis of the early effects of Australia’spolicy for growing participation andattainment.Mr Conor KingExecutive DirectorInnovative Research Universities (IRU)Professor Richard JamesPro Vice-Chancellor andDirector of the Centre for the Study ofHigher EducationThe University of Melbourne
    2. 2. The Australian Higher Education Changes• Targets for expansion: – 40% attainment (age 25-34) by 2025 – Rising to mid 30%s from 29% already – 20% access for lower socio economic group by 2020• Mechanisms: – No limits to Government funded places – Low SES loading – National quality assurance system – Information for students
    3. 3. Themes for policy change• Expand the supply of graduates• Universities to compete for students based on quality and nature of provision – Course, location, prestige, teaching style• Quality regulation of adequate provision and measures of achievement beyond the base
    4. 4. The impact of the changes• Undergraduate places• Access by socio economic background• Balance of disciplines• Size of universities• Location of university• Intra-city competition
    5. 5. Undergraduate places, 2007 to 2012 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    6. 6. Growth in Government funded undergraduateplaces 2009 to 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012Actual places 439,468 464,524 482,371 506,0042009 target 417,912 417,912 417,912 417,912Growth against2009 target 5% 11% 15% 21%Growth over 2009 6% 10% 15%
    7. 7. Low Socio-Economic Status Enrolments 120,000 25.0% 100,000 20.0% 80,000 16.8% 15.0% 16.1% 16.1% 16.2% 16.5% 60,000 10.0% 40,000 20,000 5.0% 0 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Low SES % of TotalSource: http://www.deewr.gov.au/Notes: Domestic Undergraduate students only. SES classification isdetermined based on student’s permanent post code.
    8. 8. Commencing Student Load 2007-2011 Domestic Undergraduate by selected Broad Field of Education35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000 5,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sciences Health Creative Arts Engineering
    9. 9. Change in Commencing Student Load 2009-2011 Domestic Undergraduate by selected Broad Field of Education Health 17.3% Engineering 15.2% Sciences 14.9% Creative Arts 10.4% OVERALL 10.1% Agriculture, Environment 8.9% Architecture, Building 7.5% Management, Commerce 7.0% Society and Culture 6.9% Education 3.7%Source: http://www.deewr.gov.au/
    10. 10. Growth by location of university250,000200,000150,000 Inner urban Other capital metropolitan100,000 Provincial Rural remote 50,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    11. 11. Relationship size to growth60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000-10%
    12. 12. The impact of the changes• Undergraduate places• Access by socio economic background• Balance of disciplines• Size of universities• Location of university• Intra-city competition
    13. 13. Implications from further expansion• ‘quality’ of who enters – 40% attainment means a wide range of students – Most in top 30% school leavers now applying – 25% of recent growth – Many in 40-70 percentiles applying: nearly all school completers – Mature age come with range of educational experiences• Quality of outcomes – Challenges hierarchy of university over vocational – Value from non-trade skills for middle to lower achievers
    14. 14. A scheme for the future or half way tosomewhere else?• Assumption that Government can fund all demand• Options for highly resourced courses using higher student charges• Individual choice as guide to future skills mix – Workforce planning – Supporting the unpredictable

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