"Introduction to New Economic Research, commissioned by Asia Matters, Outlining Asia’s Trade Potential for Ireland" Marc Coleman, Economics Editor, Newstalk, speaking at the Asia Ireland Trade & Investment Summit during Asia Business Week Dublin 2014

1. ASIA BUSINESS WEEK DUBLIN
Asia Ireland Trade and Investment Summit
5 June 2014
Unlocking Asia’s Trade Potential for Ireland
Marc Coleman,
Economics Editor, Newstalk

5. The Scale of
Opportunity in Asia

6. 1,324
1,241
313
242
177
150
126
95
89
70
48
29
7
5
5
1,038
- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
CHINA
INDIA
UNITED STATES
INDONESIA
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
JAPAN
PHILLIPINES
VIETNAM
THAILAND
SOUTH KOREA
MALAYSIA
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
IRELAND
THE "NEXT 11"
Population (millions)
Aside from China and India,
the “Next 11”, ie the 11
next most populated
Countries have a combined
Population of 1,038,000,000 people
Source: Penn tables.

7. 784
496
142
110
62
53
50
49
40
35
24
12
4
3
2
443
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
CHINA
INDIA
UNITED STATES
INDONESIA
JAPAN
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
VIETNAM
THAILAND
PHILLIPINES
SOUTH KOREA
MALAYSIA
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
IRELAND
THE "NEXT 11"
Workforce (millions)
Source: Penn tables.
China’s workforce exceeds those of
India, Indonesia and the US put together

8. 51,644
42,646
38,569
36,705
30,427
27,522
13,469
8,491
8,069
4,339
3,602
3,521
3,448
2,473
1,554
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
SINGAPORE
UNITED STATES
HONG KONG
IRELAND
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
MALAYSIA
THAILAND
CHINA
INDONESIA
INDIA
PHILLIPINES
VIETNAM
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
GDP per capita (PPP - 2005 US$)
Middle Income
High
Income
Low income
Source: Penn tables.

9. Bangladesh 27.3
China 48.1
Hong Kong 31.9
India 31.7
Indonesia 28.6
Japan 25.3
Malaysia 35.5
Pakistan 15.4
Phillipines 22.8
Singapore 42.8
South Korea 31.7
Thailand 29.0
United States 17.0
Vietnam 30.6
Savings as a share of GDP
annual average 2001-2011
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014

10. Asia: A story of
convergence

11. -5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Asia is a clear Convergence story
Growth from 2008 - 2011 & GDP per capita
GDPPC (2005
US$)
GDP 2008-
2011
Hong Kong 38,569 7.2%
Japan 30,427 -1.6%
South Korea 27,522 9.0%
Malaysia 13,469 7.5%
Thailand 8,491 8.1%
China 8,069 20.4%
Indonesia 4,339 17.8%
India 3,602 25.0%
Philippines 3,521 13.4%
Vietname 3,448 24.5%
Pakistan 2,473 11.7%
Bangladesh 1,554 17.2%
Source: Penn Tables

13. Just one example:
• 2006-2011: Indian airline passengers double
from 73m to 144m
• India’s Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
have just sanctioned Abu Dhabi based Etihad to
take a 24 per cent stake in Jet Airways
• And who is a key supplier of Etihad?

14. Upholstery Carpet
Donegal based Botany Weaving have 80 % of Indian market for
airline upholstery fabrics and 50 % of Chinese market

15. Telephone lines
Cell
subscriptions
Hong Kong 61.29 229.24
South Korea 61.42 109.43
Malaysia 15.69 141.33
Thailand 9.51 127.29
China 20.2 80.76
Indonesia 15.39 114.22
India 2.51 69.92
Philippines 4.07 106.51
Vietnam 11.22 147.66
Pakistan 3.24 67.06
Bangladesh 0.62 62.82
Source: Asian Development Bank, 2014

16. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Internet users per 100 & GDPPC
Already there:
HK, SK, ML
On there way:
TH, CH, PH, VT
Queueing to get started: BG, PK, IND, INDON
GDPPC (2005 US$) Internet users
Hong Kong 38,569 72.8
South Korea 27,522 84.1
Malaysia 13,469 65.8
Thailand 8,491 26.5
China 8,069 42.3
Indonesia 4,339 15.36
India 3,602 12.58
Philippines 3,521 36.24
Vietnam 3,448 39.49
Pakistan 2,473 9.96
Bangladesh 1,554 6.3
Source: Penn tables, Asian

17. Ireland’s potential in Asia

19. Sources:
- IMF
- CSO
- Penn tables
Our trade
in 2013
(€m)
Share of
countries
listed
(%)
Rel. size of
countries
listed
(GDP)
(%)
Avge export
growth
fcst 2014-19
(%)
Total export
growth fcst
2014-19
(%)
Implied
export
total 2019
(€m)
Implied growth
for exports
(€m)
Bangladesh 5.5 0.1% 1.0% 12.1% 123.3% 12.4 6.8
China 1418.2 26.2% 44.2% 6.3% 53.4% 2175.5 757.3
Hong Kong 525.2 9.7% 1.1% 7.8% 68.8% 886.5 361.3
India 281.3 5.2% 18.5% 8.7% 78.9% 503.2 221.9
Indonesia 75.6 1.4% 4.3% 6.2% 52.2% 115.1 39.5
Japan 1692.0 31.2% 15.9% 5.0% 41.0% 2385.7 693.7
Malaysia 197.7 3.6% 1.6% 3.8% 130.2% 455.1 257.4
Pakistan 28.4 0.5% 1.8% 5.2% 142.6% 68.9 40.5
Philippines 79.8 1.5% 1.4% 10.1% 96.0% 156.4 76.6
Singapore 559.9 10.3% 1.1% 6.6% 56.7% 877.4 317.5
South Korea 321.4 5.9% 5.4% 9.7% 90.6% 612.6 291.2
Thailand 137.6 2.5% 2.4% 4.2% 33.8% 184.1 46.5

24. GDPPC (2005 US$) Household cons. % GDP
Singapore 51,644 33.1%
United
States 42,646 75.9%
Hong Kong 38,569 62.6%
Japan 30,427 59.5%
South Korea 27,522 51.0%
Malaysia 13,469 52.0%
Thailand 8,491 52.8%
China 8,069 27.9%
Indonesia 4,339 58.0%
India 3,602 51.8%
Philippines 3,521 75.8%
Vietnam 3,448 47.5%
Pakistan 2,473 71.0%
Bangladesh 1,554 70.7%
Source: Penn tables, Asian Development Bank 2014
Household consumption as % of GDP
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014

37. Inflation Current A/C GG Gross debt GG primary balance
Bangladesh 7.1% 2.6% 41.8% -1.2%
China 2.5% 2.1% 22.4% ?
Honk Kong 4.3% 3.1% 33.8% 0.6%
India 8.1% -2.0% 66.6% -2.7%
Indonesia 8.1% -3.3% 26.0% -2.2%
Japan 1.4% 0.7% 243.0% -7.6%
Malaysia 3.2% 3.8% 58.2% -2.7%
Pakistan 5.9% -1.0% 60.1% -3.5%
Phillipines 4.1% 3.5% 38.3% 2.4%
Singapore 2.0% 18.4% 103.8% 5.5%
South Korea 1.1% 5.8% 36.7% 0.1%
Thailand 1.7% -2.8% 45.3% 0.6%
United States 1.2% -2.3% 104.5% -4.1%
Vietnam 6.0% 6.6% 55.0% -4.3%
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2014

38. Culture
Strategy

41. CONCLUSION
• Asia’s macro economic potential is astounding
• Asia small share in our exports means we are significantly underselling
• Strategies need to be targeted to specific country conditions
• Modest but clear penetration for indigenous goods mean it can be don
• Sectoral / demographic research can unlock potential
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