Education, Technology, and an Uncertain Future
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A keynote for the 2016 April 28th BC school cash suite user group. Take a trip to the history of knowledge storage, transmission, and sharing. Look at the history, current state, and near future of education. Reflect on the current state of technology based on artificial narrow intelligence and then speculate about an exponentially changed and disrupted future.
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Education, Technology, and an Uncertain Future
- 1. Education, Technology, and an Uncertain Future Brian Kuhn Director of Technology and CIO Vancouver School Board bkuhn@vsb.bc.ca / @bkuhn My Coordinates… http://www.shift2future.com http://www.slideshare.net/bkuhn http://www.linkedin.com/in/kuhnbrian April 28, 2016 BC School Cash Suite User Group
- 2. We live in unprecedented times! istockphoto.com # 17723170
- 3. People, even children, aren’t really afraid of change. They’re afraid of not being prepared for the change.(Lead with a Story, Paul Smith, p. 29)
- 9. Vannevar Bush envisioned the memex as a device in which individuals would compress and store all of their books, records, and communications, "mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed and flexibility." The memex would provide an "enlarged intimate supplement to one's memory"
- 10. Vannevar Bush envisioned the memex as a device in which individuals would compress and store all of their books, records, and communications, "mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed and flexibility." The memex would provide an "enlarged intimate supplement to one's memory"
- 12. "In times of change learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." - Eric Hoffer
- 14. “There’s no competitive advantage today in knowing more than the person next to you. The world doesn’t care what you know. What the world cares about is what you can do with what you know.”, Tony Wagner – Why School? (Kindle 468)
- 24. Transforming
- 25. “If you can dream it, you can do it” “Fantasy is the Mother of invention” “Hands-on wins Hands-down” Thomas Zimmerman, IBM Scientist Transforming
- 27. I know how to bake a plain cake
- 28. I know how to bake a plain cake We can bake a variety of cakes
- 29. Internet BigOven found 23,191 Cakes Desserts recipes
- 31. Machines at your Service
- 32. Direction Maps are a Game Changer for Travelers
- 33. Street View gives Travelers an Advanced Glimpse
- 34. Learn a language! I'm tired of that smile
- 36. Real time language translation!
- 37. Buying a used bike from a guy’s driveway… E-Transfer
- 38. Blended Reality
- 39. COG · NI · TIVE / käg-nə-tiv (adjective): of, relating to or involving conscious mental activities (such as thinking, understanding, learning and remembering) Jeopardy Game Health Care Education Cooking
- 48. “Because we live in a society increasingly shaped by tech. Automation will take over many of the tasks previously assigned to people. And the youth of today (and tomorrow) will have no problem transitioning into that situation.”https://medium.com/the-wtf-economy/this-is-your-life-in-10-years-time-67b4ec88a4b2#.x82rawuf9
- 49. Be a Fearless Learner Be Aware of and Embrace Change Be Flexible and Adaptable What does this all mean for us?
Editor's Notes
- 1.0 Intro Thank-you for this opportunity to share some thoughts with you about … I must confess that speaking to a group of accountants is a little scary for me - I seem to get in trouble with accountants, I suppose that's my rebel side of not being likely to follow all the rules; hopefully you will accept me anyways I think in fast changing times like ours, it is super important to be a continuous learner It's increasingly important to know how to solve problems, discover answers, and solutions
- 0.5 We live in unprecedented times Anyone feel that technology is driving a little bit of change? Having troubles keeping up? Me too! I believe education is key to preparing young people, all of us, for our future It's important to be a future oriented thinker since what you and I know to be impossible today will inevitably be different tomorrow
- 2.0 Not afraid of change, afraid of not being prepared Technology and education are major drivers of change There really is no stopping the momentum We can do better though at helping people prepare for and adapt to change How many times have you been forced to change how you do your work, or use new and different tools? At the VSB we are implementing a new phone system however it isn't just a phone anymore, it's a new way of communicating using software and a phone Just before Christmas we provided new phones with a note saying all they had to do was longingly look at their new phone and later in January they would get switched over… We prepared people through fun timely communication, limiting the # of things they would need to know initially, we trained them, and now support them People have adopted and adapted quickly and painlessly People were not afraid, they anticipated the change, and as it progressed, people learned to work differently but at different paces We need to really think about how best to prepare people for the rapidly changing world we live in…
- 0.5 Written memory 6000 years ago people transmitted knowledge by word of mouth - what a generation knew in their heads could carry forward, albeit not reliably Once the technology of writing systems were developed (chiseling in stone - I took this pic in Delphi Greece), they discovered recorded memory - game changer for building knowledge bases - knowledge recording exceeds and transcends the humans alive at a given time Accuracy of records improved dramatically
- 0.5 Printed memory With the invention of Gutenberg's printing press in the 1400's, derived from agricultural wooden screw presses, the stories of thousands were able to be set down on paper (recorded memory). Literature spread to the masses for the first time in an efficient, durable way, shoving Europe headlong into the original information age – the Renaissance, however it wiped out many jobs (the Monk copiers). This is the great ancestor to the Internet!
- 0.5 Connected voices Morse code was an early form of radio (wireless signalling) I visited Signal Hill in St. John's Newfoundland where the first Morse code message was sent between Europe and North America - as I stood there and contemplated what those inventors were thinking it was amazing they could have imagined it working out radio brought “wireless” communications; now signals with meaning could be sent through the air over long distances to anyone.
- 0.5 Shared experiences When I was 8, we got our first 12" B&W TV with 3 channels the impact of TV was first realized during the mid-1900s. U.S. citizens had been reading about the civil rights struggle for decades but when TV came along viewers saw the civil rights struggle live on the TV news and the country amassed political pressure to take action to change things. Information and knowledge through TV made large geographic gaps, smaller and connected people to shared experiences
- 0.5 Rise of the Machines Thomas Watson (IBM, 1940s) said "I think there is a world market for about five computers", I think he underestimated Computers have changed the world and created a future no one could have foreseen This was the birth of real multipurpose general computing (thinking) machines and thus a digital revolution was born The phenomenon most of us fail to see is the leveraging up that independent inventions and developments create and the exponential increase in complexity and capability that results when they come together - we'll cover more of this later
- 1.0 Memex --> Google We think that Wikipedia and the search engine were created in our lifetime, well the ideas that became Google and Wikipedia were written about and described in 1945 as 'the memex' Since then , the birth of the Internet some 35 years ago has led to billions of connected computing devices and people and has really become the global brain and memory system Do you find that more and more that the Internet and your devices are extensions of your memory? Do you still remember and punch in phone numbers or do you say 'call Mom'?
- 1.0 Memex --> Google We think that Wikipedia and the search engine were created in our lifetime, well the ideas that became Google and Wikipedia were written about and described in 1945 as 'the memex' Since then , the birth of the Internet some 35 years ago has led to billions of connected computing devices and people and has really become the global brain and memory system Do you find that more and more that the Internet and your devices are extensions of your memory? Do you still remember and punch in phone numbers or do you say 'call Mom'?
- 0.5 Think outside the box Which leads us to Education… Education has been the greatest technology of history Education or more specifically, learning is a technology to rewire the brain Education combined with information technology continuously recreates society at exponential speed We must increasingly think outside the box to be able to grapple with the increasing complexity of our world
- 1.0 In times of change… I'm now 52 years old… I remember early in the school district phase of my career, observing the Director of Finance, a man in his early 50s, holding on to very paper-based and from my young 27 year old perspective, very inefficient and non-tech ways He was obviously a smart man, well educated, successful but unwilling to unlearn and relearn He was soon to be let go and replaced with a more progressive individual This experience struck me as I said to myself, 'that will never happen to me, I will always be willing to learn and adapt' - so far so good, I've not been let go yet! My point is that with the pace of change we are now experiencing, if we do not unlearn and relearn constantly we too run the risk of being declared obsolete
- 0.5 Factory learning? I remember my classrooms looking similar to this one, well my classrooms were in color but… The rows are consistent, the heavily prescribed rote learning and memorization, where kids were 'cranked' out like a standardized product This most recent model of education is about 150 years old and was designed to do just that It was meant to prepare people to participate in a democracy, to follow rules and schedules, and to do repetitive tasks efficiently and for long periods of time
- 1.0 No competitive advantage in knowing more… I think generally, those who know how to put into good use what they know are people who also know a lot of stuff, at least about a narrow field But, it is interesting that who we think are 'smart' people are those who can just pop out answers at will like on Jeopardy However IBM set out to design and build a machine, Watson, to win Jeopardy, which it did in 2011 against the two best human winners in history My wife and I watch Jeopardy and it is amazing how people can store up so much information and respond with right answers quickly as they do - I suck at Jeopardy by the way… We consider successful Jeopardy players to be smart people but if a machine can consume all known knowledge structured and unstructured and algorithmically search it for answers calculating a statistical probability of them being correct in micro seconds, perhaps this isn't representative of smart any more
- 0.5 Upgrade thinking The pace of change in education systems is very slow Some have said education is the last system to be truly disrupted by the digital revolution rolling through the world
- 1.0 BC new curriculum I am not an educator and thus am not an expert on current or the new BC curriculum However, from a technologists and a future-orientated perspective, I like what I've read and heard For some teachers the changes that are coming will inevitably be daunting while for others they will say, "I've been teaching this way for years" The greatest change may be at the secondary level where teaching and learning is often within subject silos and as coverage models where the belief is that students need to learn a whole lot of stuff just in case they need to know it one day The new curriculum is designed to be more open ended, based on big ideas, core competencies, and more flexibility for teachers to shape the learning in ways that are meaningful to their students and to enable more student choice Again, this is happening now in many classrooms, but with a new curriculum the goal is that this model becomes the new normal
- 1.0 Transformation I always say that if technology or any new tool enters a classroom or workspace and things don't change, what was the point of bringing in the tool? With any change initiative, we need to start small and grow the reach of the change There is a stage where we are preparing, learning, experimenting, trying, and growing our knowledge but we are cautious, we don't want to upset the norm so it actually feels like more work to us After gaining experience and confidence, we can go deeper, make small permanent changes, and adapt, we see benefits to doing things in new ways Finally after much perseverance and growing comfort with uncertainty, we transform our practices to something completely different and impossible without our new tools Transformation should be the ultimate goal when introducing new tools so as to maximize their benefits
- 1.0 Preparing - Labs Computer labs have been around for decades in schools They were an economical model for introducing computer education especially back in the 80s and 90s when computers were $5000 a piece They have been beneficial in teaching basic computer / digital literacy such as word processing, spreadsheets, presentations, then Internet searching, etc. Some schools have tried to connect their use to in-context learning from classrooms but this has had mixed results When students only get a 45 minute field trip to the lab per week (if their teacher is comfortable doing so or there is a computer teacher), not much will change in how they learn Imagine if schools had pencil labs. How much writing might students be doing? In a world of abundant funding, we may keep a computer lab just for computer literacy work to help students raise their computer skills but we don't live in that world so this model is starting to fade as more adaptive embedded models are introduced
- 1.5 Preparing - IWBs A more recent technological wave involving interactive white boards, most commonly Smart Boards, has spread through our schools I worked with a group of K-5 teachers a few years back for two years to help them explore the use of IWBs in their classrooms and to adapt their pedagogy These are very difficult tools to learn how to use effectively - teachers need to be willing and able to significantly change the design of their lessons Some benefits are student engagement but when you uncover how most of these are used, they could simply be projectors onto white boards at far less cost Again in a world of abundant funding for these tools and several years of intense prod-d, these can become effective teaching tools and some of the time, effective tools for student use in their learning Share example of teaching K/1s to count to 10 For most, the greatest benefit here is the ability to make teaching and learning visible which only requires a projector, wireless connectivity, and a whiteboard or screen
- 2.5 Exploring - tablets As technology has moved into classrooms closer to the learning action and into the hands of kids, learning in context has become more likely Schools usually start on this journey by buying carts of iPads and sharing them amongst all teachers on a bookable basis The bookable model isn't a lot better than the computer lab in that students and teachers only get access to these powerful tools in limited and scheduled chunks of time, but again cost is a significant limiter to broader access Access equity is a challenge but essential to this stage of transformation Students need ready access to these tools or they will be caught between two worlds, the traditional and the new Imagine if you had to share your smartphone or your computer with numerous colleagues. How likely is it that you would depend on the technology to get your job done? You would have to use alternatives such as paper, calculators, dictionaries, physical books, and then when you get access to tech, switch methods for a while then back again… This is what we expect teachers and students to do when we give occasional access to new tools - it's just not practical to expect significant transformation An example of an adapted learning process is book studies using iPads… Kids are grouped and read a common book individually They use the iPads or other computers to research additional information on the author, the setting or history written about, etc. to get a well-rounded perspective Through a Google Doc, OneNote document, or other collaborative tool, they record their thoughts and learnings from the book - this can occur from home or school They develop a script together to develop scenes, characters, and the story line they want to share They use cardboard, playdough, and other props to create their characters and scenes They use iStopMotion apps on the iPads to record them playing out the scene of their book summary; they add voice overs, and edit their product until satisfied and save it to an iMovie, perhaps on the school portal or to Youtube They share their book summary Claymation movies with their classmates, teachers, and if on YouTube, with their parents and family members This process generates a lot of diverse learning with simple tools Contrast this to the exciting book summaries you and I wrote and turned in for a mark…
- 0.5 Exploring - laptops Laptops have some benefits over tablets but also some deficiencies They are easier to use for sophisticated writing and creation of documents such as reports, spreadsheets, presentations, blogs, and they are used within the classroom in-context But their programs are usually not as intuitive and easy to use as apps on tablets like iPads Not every student needs access to their own laptop; learning to cooperate and collaborate while working through projects and assignments together is beneficial Having a combination of tablets and laptops is ideal as part of a digital tool bag
- 0.5 Pencil labs - BYOD? At some point powerful digital tools will become a school supply for most As the cost declines, it will be normal for students to bring their own devices to school - many are doing so now and it's increasing Those students who cannot afford this, Districts and schools will need to step in to provide the needed access - but this will make it easier to ensure equitable access - provide for those most in need
- 1.5 BYOD Currently, in most classrooms personal technology is either banned or teacher controlled (can only use it when the teacher says they can and for specific tasks) It needs to become as common as a pen, paper, calculator, protractor, crayon, ruler, and any number of other school supplies When students own their technology and they know that their learning depends on it working, they will need more control over when they use it and for what to realize the greatest value Things change significantly though for the teacher - no longer can they prescribe the specific tool, app, or program, rather they will need to become comfortable with a diverse digital tool composite and become focussed on the learning process rather than the physical or digital tools Share example of serendipitous use at TL meeting (angle of keyboard for surface)
- 1.5 Transforming learning I am asked regularly about how classroom design needs to be adapted to the technological realm It is quite simple actually, but learning must be more embedded within projects and problem solving and less prescribed, more choice for students There needs to be lots of places to brainstorm (whiteboards - perhaps all walls should be this), wireless connectivity, projection to one or more places with wireless (eg, AppleTV) connection for students and teachers, and movable desks/tables, and chairs Ideally there could be quiet spaces for individual or small group use, caves some call these to focus in on deep work Furniture matters - easily reconfigured, tables and chairs on wheels, a couch or bean bag chairs, etc. - welcoming, supportive of small groups Students should be allowed to bring any device and encouraged to share in their small groups Share example of g7 class at L'ecole Billingue Teacher outlines big goals/ideas, students make choices on how and what to do Projects Passions projects Genius hours (like Google's 20% time) They choose to use school or personal technology based on their own decisions and needs Regularly sharing their work with each other, the teacher, and other audiences
- 2.0 Thomas Zimmerman: dream, fantasy, invent, do (40+ patents) STEMpleton Last year I spent time at Templeton Secondary talking to STEM students about one of their projects Through various generations and failures, they created and programmed a vehicle, controlled wirelessly, to drive through the school with a live video feed streamed to their laptop; they designed a container for the electronics using 3D software and printed prototypes on a 3D printer until they got it right They learned science, technology, engineering, and math through their projects Leaders immerged amongst these engaged learners Their teacher said "Brian, they have no idea how much physics they've learned this year"
- 0.5 Technology today… I suggest that most of us take for granted the amazing stuff we use and enjoy resulting from human progress Reminds me of a Louis CK sketch: a guy is texting on his phone… what the heck, why, ah come on… Give it a second, it's going to space and back ANI: artificial narrow (weak) intelligence Specialization in one area A Chess champion AI cannot advise you on what stocks to buy, you'll get a blank stare ANI is actually pretty amazing though, let's look at a few day to day examples
- 0.5 Cakes: Growth of knowledge through connection, a catalyst to innovation Think about how much one person can learn and know on their own, no groups, no Internet Now that person collaborates with others, those they can meet and connect with in the physical world
- 0.5 Cakes: Growth of knowledge through connection, a catalyst to innovation Think about how much one person can learn and know on their own, no groups, no Internet Now that person collaborates with others, those they can meet and connect with in the physical world
- 0.5 Cakes: Internet connection We now all can tap into the Global brain of knowledge We can all learn to bake all possible cakes Connections + collaboration = knowledge explosion = the invention of amazing things
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- 1.5 Language: coping in real time (video: 1.0) Google Translator Use phone to translate text from one language to another Use phone to translate speech
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- 1.5 Hololens (video: 1.15) 3D blended reality Any one here a Star Trek fan? I see this as the precursor to the holodeck - think of the learning applications that will enable https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=hololens+case+western https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBs471Ki8HE
- 1.0 Cognitive computing In 2011, IBM Watson won $1M on Jeopardy! against former winners Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings.[3][6] Watson is now used for decisions in lung cancer treatment and now 90% of nurses in the field who use Watson follow its guidance Watson was sent to the Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine of Case Western Reserve University, to increase its health expertise and assist medical professionals in treating patients Chef Watson creates recipes that apparently taste good from whatever raw materials you have available Watson is being trained to provide guidance to teachers and students, to relieve teachers of the data burden so they can focus on the relationship, really know their students, and guide and support them
- 2.0 Home robots: JIBO (video 1.45) Robots used to be big, complex, dangerous machines but newer robots are taught to perform tasks the same way we might train a new employee and are friendlier, less expensive, and don't require task specific programming We have kid friendly robots in some schools now that students as young as 8 or 9 can program to recognize faces, perform tasks such as finding and picking up things, speaking, etc. For your home, there are autonomous vacuum cleaners, lawn cutters, etc. and soon Jibo… https://www.jibo.com/faq
- 0.5 Future? It's getting difficult to predict the future, well we can't actually, but there is a lot of speculation about what's coming I belong to the World Future Society and there are a lot of interesting ideas about what's next and how to be prepared for it A lot of futurists are now talking about the workerless future and how to prepare for and adapt to that reality
- 0.5 Human Progress: past to today Early progress took 1000s of years to create interesting things The past few hundred years, perhaps since the 1400's and the invention of the printing press, things have gotten pretty interesting Think about invention in your lifetime, remarkable isn't it But, we generally think things will continue much the same as they have with incremental changes We are not expecting anything significantly different or miraculous
- 0.5 Human Progress: today to the future Suddenly, things get very interesting Rapid compounding exponential change sneaks up on and surprises us Our future will be nothing like our past!
- 0.5 Intelligence: Distorted view I remember researching early artificial intelligence methods when I was a computer programmer working for fisheries and oceans Canada Back then, in the mid-80s, a rules based approach was the leading model for AI and it was less than impressive AI research stalled for decades and then with increases in computing power, decades of computer science development in algorithms and brain understanding, big data, and a connected world, AI has progressed significantly Estimates are that AI computers are reaching the level of a monkey in their reasoning abilities
- 0.5 How long until power of computers are the same as human brain The development of computing power started out quite slow But, the doubling effect every 18 months of computing power and the halving of the relative cost has caused computing power to sneak up on us It seems that for a long time that computing capacity is increasing but not in revolutionary ways, then suddenly it is greater than our brain When it reaches the power of one brain, it will not take long to be double that, quadruple, and eventually be greater than all brains put together, and then what…
- 0.5 Intelligence: Reality Suddenly, what seems like an impossibility or magical becomes reality, in our lifetime Suddenly computers are more intelligent than the smartest human… all humans Exponential change will have caught up to and surpassed us Things are going to change much faster than our brains anticipate they will We should get ready for many surprises
- 1.0 Robotics and automation As machines gain power and 'intelligence', they increasingly encroach upon work that was previously thought only possible for humans to do The Food Channel's Food Factory has great examples of what humans are relegated to in factories in an automated workplace The economic recovery since the 2008 crash has often been called the jobless recovery due to more machine automation using robots and (narrow) AI; outsourced jobs are coming back, to the machines Machines are getting to be very good at pattern recognition, recommendations, and advising Robots are becoming general purpose, agile, flexible, and learners We need to think about how to best prepare our children for a future where machines increasingly take on more of our work For example, in spite of the radiologist’s training of at least thirteen additional years beyond high school where the primary focus of the job is to analyze and evaluate visual images, it is conceptually quite easy to envision this job being automated; Radiologists are responsible for: Obtaining quality medical images with a technologist's help Reading and analyzing images to make diagnoses Recording imaging data and patient records Communicating with other physicians Delivering radiation therapy as part of a treatment plan Prescribing medications and consulting with patients Think about the advent of driverless cars - the impacts to taxi, bus, and truck drivers, car ownership, health care, insurance, death rates, # of docs, nurses, pharmacies, insurance companies, dealerships, manufacturers, parking garages and parking spaces… this one revolutionary development will transform many industries and while being amazing, safer, a time saver, etc., it will destroy many jobs…
- 0.5 Automation take over, the youth will transition My wife and I visited the Munich Museum of Science and Technology (took this pic there) – talk about the vast changes through time in so many industries We are most adaptable when we are very young As we get older, we need to remember what it is like to be young and full of possibility and then continuously learn to adapt as technology pushes change further
- 1.0 What does this all mean for us? There's a book I read "Race against the Machine" The premise is that ultimately we can't beat machines at their own game We have to differentiate ourselves and focus on what is truly human We should prepare ourselves and our kids to be… (the statements on the slide) There may actually be that utopian future for us spoken of long ago where more of our time will be available to care for others and enjoy more leisure time Time will tell… Until then I will be off to Spain to practice my leisure time and be better prepared for a utopian future Thank-you for being such a kind audience, I hope you enjoy the rest of your conference together!