The document provides an overview of the state of the US economy from the perspective of a Federal Reserve economist. It notes tepid growth is likely in the second half of 2012 along with high unemployment and weak housing. Some recent positive signs include declining initial jobless claims and increases in capital goods orders and manufacturing activity. However, structural unemployment remains a concern. Wages have decelerated despite productivity growth. Inflation has risen recently due to temporary factors but is expected to gradually decline. The Fed has taken unprecedented actions to provide liquidity and stimulate the economy through policies like quantitative easing.
Tim Pulido, President & CEO with 30 years of restaurant industry experience, presents his outlook for 2012 and the brand strategies necessary to win in the New Normal.
What will be the impact of changes in financial market regulation on employment? Based on insights recently published in the ILO's Global Employment Trends 2012, this presentation provides empirical results on the impact changes in banking regulation, international financial transaction taxes and regulation of securities markets might have on job creation, job destruction and employment growth.
Chris Caton, Chief Economist at BT Financial Group, presented his economic preview for AIM NSW & ACT this week. "Share markets are still slightly cheap" is just one of the key findings. Read more in the attached slide show.
Tim Pulido, President & CEO with 30 years of restaurant industry experience, presents his outlook for 2012 and the brand strategies necessary to win in the New Normal.
What will be the impact of changes in financial market regulation on employment? Based on insights recently published in the ILO's Global Employment Trends 2012, this presentation provides empirical results on the impact changes in banking regulation, international financial transaction taxes and regulation of securities markets might have on job creation, job destruction and employment growth.
Chris Caton, Chief Economist at BT Financial Group, presented his economic preview for AIM NSW & ACT this week. "Share markets are still slightly cheap" is just one of the key findings. Read more in the attached slide show.
Contingent Labor White Paper May 2011 Linked Intbokowy
Contingent labor is one of the most overlooked and mismanaged resources. Companies that are effective in managing contingent labor have a more flexible workforce, pay markup rates half the industry average, and have fewer suppliers to manage. Many organizations lack the ability to manage this category across business units and regions due to lack of visibility, clear reporting and leadership. To address this opportunity, Cost & Capital Partners has published a category sourcing guide to provide an overview of how companies can gain control over contingent labor and unlock the benefits promised.
Transaction Intelligence (TI) Monthly report for June, 2012. This report provides a brief overview of the overall outsourcing market activity for the month and includes the following:
• Trailing three-month average of outsourcing deals
• Split of outsourcing deals by function and industry vertical
• Geographical split and analysis of the level of deal activity
• Key outsourcing deals signed in June 2012
We would be happy to receive your feedback on this report and/or on the TI offering.
Some Observations on Trade Relations between Austria and TurkeyAykut Kibritçioğlu
The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) hosted a joint international conference in cooperation with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in Vienna on March 18, 2013. The conference took place from 2:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. at the Kassensaal of the OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna. The topic of this conference was "Turkish-Austrian economic relations in a European and international context". The panel was chaired by Dr. Ewald Nowotny. The panelists were: Murat Çetinkaya (CBRT), Amb. Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Dr. Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG) and Prof. Dr. Aykut Kibritçioğl.
For more information on the panel, you may visit:
http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/oenb-20130318.html
This is the latest Malaysia SMEs Census. The report consist of total number of companies in Malaysia, total SMEs in Malaysia (small, medium, micro), the SMEs main sectors, total SMEs by states, SMEs productivity, wages, data on women-owned SMEs, access to financing, ICT utilization among SMEs and marketing activities in SMEs.
Contingent Labor White Paper May 2011 Linked Intbokowy
Contingent labor is one of the most overlooked and mismanaged resources. Companies that are effective in managing contingent labor have a more flexible workforce, pay markup rates half the industry average, and have fewer suppliers to manage. Many organizations lack the ability to manage this category across business units and regions due to lack of visibility, clear reporting and leadership. To address this opportunity, Cost & Capital Partners has published a category sourcing guide to provide an overview of how companies can gain control over contingent labor and unlock the benefits promised.
Transaction Intelligence (TI) Monthly report for June, 2012. This report provides a brief overview of the overall outsourcing market activity for the month and includes the following:
• Trailing three-month average of outsourcing deals
• Split of outsourcing deals by function and industry vertical
• Geographical split and analysis of the level of deal activity
• Key outsourcing deals signed in June 2012
We would be happy to receive your feedback on this report and/or on the TI offering.
Some Observations on Trade Relations between Austria and TurkeyAykut Kibritçioğlu
The Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) hosted a joint international conference in cooperation with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in Vienna on March 18, 2013. The conference took place from 2:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. at the Kassensaal of the OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna. The topic of this conference was "Turkish-Austrian economic relations in a European and international context". The panel was chaired by Dr. Ewald Nowotny. The panelists were: Murat Çetinkaya (CBRT), Amb. Ayşe Sezgin (MFA), Dr. Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer (VIG) and Prof. Dr. Aykut Kibritçioğl.
For more information on the panel, you may visit:
http://kibritcioglu.com/iktisat/oenb-20130318.html
This is the latest Malaysia SMEs Census. The report consist of total number of companies in Malaysia, total SMEs in Malaysia (small, medium, micro), the SMEs main sectors, total SMEs by states, SMEs productivity, wages, data on women-owned SMEs, access to financing, ICT utilization among SMEs and marketing activities in SMEs.
Organizational values should turn into real attitudes and behaviours grounded in everyday life and interaction with different stakeholder groups.
Clear and decided focus on stakeholders and creation of value for all stakeholder groups in line with their needs and expectations is a key element for building the reputation of many companies in the near future.
Values frequently expressed in different formats and through different communication media should first be experienced within the organization, be integrated into its brand history and company history. They can’t simply be improvised to be used as a short-lived tool in the communication games.
In this sense, CaixaBank is a leading organization in the Spanish banking market for promoting the model of social entities committed to commercial innovation and social and cultural activity through creation of value which includes not only purely economic or mercantile dimensions. It can be read in this document the values that guide its behaviour in the market and the society.
It is more and more important to be coherent between what is said and done and consistent with the company’s beliefs in order to develop a long lasting and successful project.
Four elements should be borne in mind in order to align culture and reputation, and make sure engagement translates into trust: vision and values, identification of stakeholders, monitoring and balanced scorecards and improved organizational processes.
The action plans implemented by Repsol show how important organizational culture is. It is, indeed, one of the aspects that best describes corporate reputation. Idea and personality are the most emotional part of the brand, while culture, vision, values and attributes reflect the rational aspect of what Repsol means for its stakeholders.
Engagement that leads to trust may be achieved by companies through demonstrating their commitment to the creation not only of economic value, but also social value. The social aspect represents both an opportunity and reputational risk, which should be measured, evaluated and considered.
In order to achieve a strong position in the market, a company first has to legitimize its intention to enter, operate and stay in this market. This task comes before building reputation and is accomplished through demonstrating the willingness to create not only economic, but also social value in the country.
“Doing good by being good” is a saying that accurately captures the prevailing perspective and foreseeable future for corporate reputation. Social commitments that companies undertake and try to live up to is a reflection of this trend which implies that alongside economic results, the social impact is a factor that determines ultimate brand value.
Gas Natural Fenosa stands as an of this new panorama, where activities undertaken by a company should be beneficial both for the company and the society.
Insight Corporate Excellence
Can Spain benefit from the strong position of successful Spanish companies abroad by reinforcing and launching its own brand during the crisis? What tools can be used to achieve this, in what sectors and what would be the basis for the project titled Spain?
In order to reconstruct Spain’s brand abroad, apart from improving the reputation by changing the country’s internal reality, it is necessary to align prestige and recognition achieved by the brands of Spanish companies abroad with the country itself, creating synergies and sharing meanings and values between the two.
But in order to achieve this, it is also necessary to improve the brand of Spain. Only by doing this it will be possible to restore the reputation damaged in the last years due to the economic crisis. Besides, it is important to improve the “hard” aspects of the reputation, such as quality, innovation and productivity – in all these elements Spain still lags behind.
Can Spain benefit from the strong position of successful Spanish companies abroad by reinforcing and launching its own brand during the crisis? What tools can be used to achieve this, in what sectors and what would be the basis for the project titled Spain?
In order to reconstruct Spain’s brand abroad, apart from improving the reputation by changing the country’s internal reality, it is necessary to align prestige and recognition achieved by the brands of Spanish companies abroad with the country itself, creating synergies and sharing meanings and values between the two.
But in order to achieve this, it is also necessary to improve the brand of Spain. Only by doing this it will be possible to restore the reputation damaged in the last years due to the economic crisis. Besides, it is important to improve the “hard” aspects of the reputation, such as quality, innovation and productivity – in all these elements Spain still lags behind.
Management of intangibles should create new corporate brands, integrate media analysis into the reputation management process and adjust reputation strategies to the new digital reality. It is also important to take into account how important social networks, recommendations and experience are to demonstrate the value of a company.
Agbar Group, for example, a company based in Spain and operating in many other countries, had to launch a new strategy to improve its reputation and recognition in the water supply sector, which has lots of reputational risks due to the different conflicts related to water: poverty, diseases, mortality, privatization, water saving, technologies and the environment.
Thus, Agbar decided to face the challenge by launching a new strategy, adjusting the business model, monitoring risks related to the sector and creating a new brand, Aqualogy, able to unite reputational value created by different stakeholders: customers, employees, citizens, companies and institutions.
The company launched a communication plan aiming to strengthen the brand and position itself as an infrastructure manager but also as a developer of innovations in the area of water management and solutions to the global water problems. In line with this plan, the company launched several projects to promote a new corporate culture and turn its employees into brand ambassadors. These projects aim to achieve the following objectives:
Penetration/recognition
Esteem/emotion
Leadership/international exposure
Relevance/differentiation
Another important trend in the area of Corporate Reputation is to find out the feelings of stakeholders and to ensure that they identify themselves with companies on the Internet. TNS consulting firm carried out a research to map the scope of stakeholders’ interests that create the reputation of a brand. To do so, it is important to take into account the following three aspects:
Topics and opinions about the company on the Internet
Strengths and weaknesses of its reputation
Communication channels and networks
The scale of the impact on reputation depends on whether the opinion about the brand is positive or negative, and on the number of channels that discuss an issue related to the company.
The most effective tool of strengthening corporate reputation is developing a permanent strategy of differentiation, creating shared value and implementing on-going performance measurement, both offline and online.
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Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Baird Perspective on Uniform Industry: Good NewsDavid Crace
Robert W Baird is the premier financial institution tracking the uniform market. Here is their May Perspective on the outlook for uniform market and the industries we serve. It's good news!
Special thanks to Andrew Wittmann at Baird for allowing us to post.
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
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"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
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Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxmy Pandit
Explore the world of the Taurus zodiac sign. Learn about their stability, determination, and appreciation for beauty. Discover how Taureans' grounded nature and hardworking mindset define their unique personality.
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Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
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Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
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What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
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As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
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As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
3. The outlook
Tepid growth likely
Recent data suggest growth of 2-2.5% in second half
High unemployment for a while—Structural?
Housing likely to be weak for some time
Elevated inflation (how to interpret recent rises?)
Concern over developments in Europe
70000 500
Some recent positive signs 67500 400
65000 300
Initial claims down, capital goods 62500 Cap. Goods orders 200
orders up, ISM up a bit 60000 Initial Claims 100
ISM index
Suggests continued slow growth 57500
2011:Jan 2011:May
0
2011:Sep
3
4. (cats and dogs living together—a sign
of the Apocalypse)
4
5. 4.5
4.0
GDP growth
3.5
Long-run sustainable growth
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2009:Q3 2010:Q1 2010:Q3 2011:Q1
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics 5
6. Labor markets
400 11
3-month average change in employment
Civilian unemployment rate, % of labor
200 10
0 9
-200 8
force
Employment growth
-400 Total Private 7
August 0 17
-600 June-Aug avg 35 83 6
3-mo. Avg. change, total employment
-800 3-mo. Avg. change, private employment 5
Unemployment rate (right scale)
-1000 4
2008:Jan 2008:Sep 2009:May 2010:Jan 2010:Sep 2011:May
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment, initial claims), Haver Analytics 6
7. Peak-to-trough employment declines during the recession
were large and widespread, across almost all sectors
Government
Leisure and hospitality
Educ. And Health
Prof. and Bus. Services
Financial
Information
Transportation
MV
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Construction
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics Percent 7
8. Wages have decelerated noticeably over the
past two years
Despite rather strong productivity growth
4.5 8.0
4 7.0
3.5 6.0
3 5.0
Avg. hourly earnings
2.5 4.0
ECI (right scale)
2 3.0
Productivity growth
1.5 2.0
1 1.0
0.5 0.0
0 -1.0
2006:Q1 2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
8
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics , Haver Analytics
9. Likely some increase in structural
unemployment
But most of the rise has been due to very weak
demand
However, a prolonged state of weak demand
could turn cyclical unemployment into structural
unemployment
This is a risk to monitor
9
10. I know you were expecting me to huff and puff and all that.
But it is the 21st century, so I’m just going to foreclose on you.
And then roast you with a nice honey glaze.
10
11. Housing
1800 20
Single-family sales (left)
1600 Single-family permits 15
National house price index excl. distressed sales (Core Logic, right scale)
1400 10
including distressed sales (right scale)
12-month pctg. change
1200 5
Thousands
1000 0
800 -5
600 -10
400 -15
200 -20
0 -25
2006:Jan 2008:Jan 2010:Jan
Sources: Census Bureau (permits), National Association of Realtors (home sales), Core Logic (house price indexes), Haver Analytics 11
12. Low housing demand, sizable vacant stock
1/3-1/2 of existing home sales are REO, etc.
Why is demand weak?
Unemployment
Fear of job loss
Low and falling house prices
Weak house price expectations mute demand
Low house prices affect equity
What will help?
We will return to this
12
13. Eliminates
Equity position as of 2011:Q2
(Core Logic)
some down
payments
and thus
weakens
22.5
Negative equity
sales
5
72.5 Near-negative Limits or
Positive equity
eliminates
refinancing
options
Sources: Core Logic 13
14. Real residential investment spending
900
800
Historical data
700 Macro Advisers Forecast
600
500
400
300
2004:Q1 2006:Q1 2008:Q1 2010:Q1 2012:Q1
Sources: Census Bureau, Macroeconomic Advisers 14
15. 24.0
Sovereign spreads over comparable German rates
Greece
19.0 Ireland
Portugal
14.0 Spain
Italy
9.0
4.0
-1.0
20080101 20080729 20090224 20090922 20100420 20101116 20110614
Sources: Reuters, Haver Analytics 15
16. Both overall and so-called “core” measures have risen
of late
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1 Core CPI, 3-mo. Chg
0.5 Core CPI, 6-mo. Chg.
Core CPI, 12-mo. Chg.
0 Cleveland Fed weighted median, year-over-year
-0.5
2005:Jan 2006:Jan 2007:Jan 2008:Jan 2009:Jan 2010:Jan 2011:Jan
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (weighted median), Haver Analytics 16
17. Many temporary factors—auto prices
(Japan), energy, food—have led to spikes in overall
inflation
But no acceleration in wages—2/3 of production cost
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 ECI (right scale)
1.5 Avg. hourly earnings
1
0.5
0
2006:Q1 2008:Q1
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics , Haver Analytics
2010:Q1 17
18. Commodity price pressures are easing
We will see a gradual decline in inflation to
somewhere between 1 and 2%
160
150 Copper
140 Wheat
Index, Jan 2011 = 100
130 Oil
120 Cotton
110
100
90 Jan. 2011
80
70
60
20110103 20110214 20110328 20110509 20110620 20110801 20110912
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Haver Analytics 18
19. 14.0 Civilian unemployment rates
RI
12.0 US
CT
10.0
New England
8.0 MA
ME
6.0 NH
VT
4.0
… although
2.0 the states
vary
0.0 significantly
2007:Jan 2007:Jul 2008:Jan 2008:Jul 2009:Jan 2009:Jul 2010:Jan 2010:Jul 2011:Jan
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 19
20. 280
House prices indexes, 1995=100
Boston (Case-Shiller)
260
NE (FHFA)
240
Index, 1995:Q1=100
US (Case-Shiller)
220 CT (FHFA)
200
180
160
140
120
100
1995:Q1 1998:Q1 2001:Q1 2004:Q1 2007:Q1 2010:Q1
Sources: Case-Shiller, FHFA, Haver Analytics 20
21. 6 Delinquent 90 days or more, % of all mortgages
RI
5 US
NE
4 CT
3
2
1
0
2007:Q1 2008:Q1 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1
Sources: Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Haver Analytics 21
22. HAMP has not worked as well as hoped, HARP has
not worked as well as hoped, Hope for Homeowners
didn’t work at all
HAMP-UP has had very limited take-up
What to do?
Forbearance for unemployed/economically stressed
homeowners
Expedite unavoidable foreclosures
Incentives to convert owner-occupied stock to rental stock
House price insurance that limits exposure to severe price
declines
Limit late “push-backs” by Fannie/Freddie (e.g. after 2 or 3
years)
More dramatic measures?
22
24. Quick tour of our liquidity and alternative
monetary policy efforts
The Crisis evolved in two phases:
1. Liquidity crisis (shortage of short-term funds)
2. Macro crisis
Made more complicated by the Zero Lower Bound
We responded to the two phases with two
types of tools
Lending to institutions that couldn’t get short-term
funds
Pursuing policies to lower longer-term interest rates
(QE1, QE2, “Twist”)
24
25. Enormous effort to fix short-term credit markets
(“liquidity”)
1200
Assets on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
1000
CB Swaps CPFF TAF
800
Billions of $
600
400
200
0
2009:Jan 2009:May 2009:Sep 2010:Jan 2010:May 2010:Sep
Sources: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 Release, Haver Analytics 25
26. Target federal funds rate
6
5
4
3
2
1
At the “zero lower bound”
0
2007:Jan 2008:Jan 2009:Jan 2010:Jan
Sources: Haver Analytics 26
27. Liquidity policies phase out, macro stimulus
policies phase in, viz our balance sheet
3000000
Agency and MBS
2500000
CB Swaps
2000000
CPFF
1500000 TAF
Treasuries
1000000
500000
0
2008:Jan 2008:Jul 2009:Jan 2009:Jul 2010:Jan 2010:Jul 2011:Jan 2011:Jul
Sources: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 Release, Haver Analytics 27
28. We’re stuck at the ZLB
How do we normally affect the economy?
By moving the federal funds rate
This in turn affects key borrowing rates:
Auto loans
Mortgages
Business loans
Education loans
Also effects equity valuations, the exchange value of
the dollar
When stuck at the ZLB, pursue policies to
affect these rates directly
28
29. Leaves size of balance sheet the same
Sell short-term Treasuries, buy long-term
Goal: to lower long-term interest rates
Fed Balance Sheet: Assets
Before Twist After Twist
Short-term Treasury securities $535B $135B
(3 years or less, incl. Bills)
Long-term Treasury securities $567B $967B
(6 years or greater)
Mortgage-backed securities $995B $995B
Likely effects
Lower long-term rates (15-25bps)—pretty confident
Spur spending, increase jobs 0.5-0.7M—less confident
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma/sysopen_accholdings.html 29
30. Re-investing maturing/prepaid MBS back into MBS
Reverse some of the widening spread between
mortgage rates and Treasuries
5.5 2.4
5.0 2.2
4.5
30-year fixed rate mortgage (left scale) 2.0
4.0
3.5 Spread, 30-year mortage over 10-year Treasury (right scale) 1.8
3.0 1.6
2.5
2.0 1.4
1.5 1.2
20110103 20110228 20110425 20110620 20110815
Sources: Federal Reserve Board H.15 Release (10-year Treasury yield), NY Times (30-year mortgage rate), Haver Analytics 30
31. It has been a fascinating period
The Fed has done things it never did before
To accomplish two goals:
Keep financial markets working, so that business can
continue
To directly stimulate the economy, to create
economic growth and employment
31