The document provides an economic update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It includes:
1) A summary of FOMC forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation rates for 2012-2014 which generally predict moderate economic growth and contained inflation.
2) Data and charts on components of the economy such as consumption, investment, manufacturing, and lending which show recent trends and fluctuations.
3) The Philadelphia Fed's current and leading economic activity indexes for April 2012 which indicate differing growth predictions across regions in the next 6 months.
Below is the latest resale market figures for August in Greater Toronto Area which inlcude both the 416 and 905 region. There has been a reduction in Sales for August from last year at this time however it should be noted that last year was the second highest year in the history of the Toronto Real Estate Board. Personally I continue to be quite bullish about the Toronto market as I am noticing more the ever, a more suburban City turning into a more urban City: Larger population and immigration, making homes more expensive and expanding upward.
Article Corporate Excellence
In the 21st century, big corporations need a sustainability and differentiation model as products and services offered to customers by different companies are becoming more and more similar. In this context, companies understand that their strategy should be focused on intangibles, such as the brand, communication, public affairs, etc. Reputation is turning into the field of competition for companies, countries and institutions. In order to successfully navigate in this new reputation-focused economy, we need leaders capable to understand the new environment, who possess deep knowledge of the expectations of the stakeholders.
This new role, a Chief Reputation Officer, is discussed in the research titled The Chief Reputation Officer, a New Model of Corporate Reputation, carried out by the University of Malaga.
The debate over excellence, reputation, CSR and their impact on performance rages in the academic and professional communities.
Professionals responsible for intangible assets and those in charge of finance are a good reflection of this dual reality that frequently makes Board members and Management Committees take difficult decisions that don’t benefit both parts the same way.
In 2013, a research was held in Japan in order to shed light to explain the mechanisms that affect financial performance and, more specifically, identify which of these mechanisms are related to corporate reputation. It concluded that corporate value is constituted by four factors: organizational value, social value, business value and commercial value. Eventually, those companies that pay more attention to organizational and social value achieve greater commercial and business value.
This document analyzes the factors that constitute those values and the steps needed to improve reputation. It also explains relations between different factors of corporate reputation and financial performance in mathematical terms.
Innovation is the factor that truly relates corporate reputation to business success. The factors that improve both economic results and reputation are the ability to lure resources and expand internationally. That’s why companies need to bring best talent and state-of-the-art technologies on board.
In this document, it is explained the case of ING Direct in Australia to show the contribution of corporate reputation to financial results.
By using Net Promoter Score (NPS) (an index developed by U.S.-based Professor Reichheld which stands for a positive or negative correlation between the number of promoters and the number of detractors), ING Direct was able to measure the impact of its brand strategy on the Australian market. The company achieved a high recommendation level reflected in the exponential growth of deposits, funds and assets.
Good economic results impact reputation and sustain it over time. However, as in the example of ING Direct and many other companies, a good reputation is able to improve financial results as well as the competitive and economic position.
Below is the latest resale market figures for August in Greater Toronto Area which inlcude both the 416 and 905 region. There has been a reduction in Sales for August from last year at this time however it should be noted that last year was the second highest year in the history of the Toronto Real Estate Board. Personally I continue to be quite bullish about the Toronto market as I am noticing more the ever, a more suburban City turning into a more urban City: Larger population and immigration, making homes more expensive and expanding upward.
Article Corporate Excellence
In the 21st century, big corporations need a sustainability and differentiation model as products and services offered to customers by different companies are becoming more and more similar. In this context, companies understand that their strategy should be focused on intangibles, such as the brand, communication, public affairs, etc. Reputation is turning into the field of competition for companies, countries and institutions. In order to successfully navigate in this new reputation-focused economy, we need leaders capable to understand the new environment, who possess deep knowledge of the expectations of the stakeholders.
This new role, a Chief Reputation Officer, is discussed in the research titled The Chief Reputation Officer, a New Model of Corporate Reputation, carried out by the University of Malaga.
The debate over excellence, reputation, CSR and their impact on performance rages in the academic and professional communities.
Professionals responsible for intangible assets and those in charge of finance are a good reflection of this dual reality that frequently makes Board members and Management Committees take difficult decisions that don’t benefit both parts the same way.
In 2013, a research was held in Japan in order to shed light to explain the mechanisms that affect financial performance and, more specifically, identify which of these mechanisms are related to corporate reputation. It concluded that corporate value is constituted by four factors: organizational value, social value, business value and commercial value. Eventually, those companies that pay more attention to organizational and social value achieve greater commercial and business value.
This document analyzes the factors that constitute those values and the steps needed to improve reputation. It also explains relations between different factors of corporate reputation and financial performance in mathematical terms.
Innovation is the factor that truly relates corporate reputation to business success. The factors that improve both economic results and reputation are the ability to lure resources and expand internationally. That’s why companies need to bring best talent and state-of-the-art technologies on board.
In this document, it is explained the case of ING Direct in Australia to show the contribution of corporate reputation to financial results.
By using Net Promoter Score (NPS) (an index developed by U.S.-based Professor Reichheld which stands for a positive or negative correlation between the number of promoters and the number of detractors), ING Direct was able to measure the impact of its brand strategy on the Australian market. The company achieved a high recommendation level reflected in the exponential growth of deposits, funds and assets.
Good economic results impact reputation and sustain it over time. However, as in the example of ING Direct and many other companies, a good reputation is able to improve financial results as well as the competitive and economic position.
This document was developed by Corporate Excellence – Centre for Reputation Leadership and among other sources contains references to the book Brand Psychology written by Jonathan Gabay, British lecturer and expert in Brand, Reputation and Communication and published by Kogan Page in 2015.
It explains how both sides of the brain connect when we take decisions and how this fact shapes our beliefs and trust on certain companies and people.
Brand Psychology studies the new relation models and analyzes the different techniques to be developed by brands to reach their stakeholders.
Thus, the text dives into what happens in the left hemisphere, which controls rational elements, and in the right one, which controls emotional aspects and relates this explanation with brand managament, value creation and shared beliefs.
Gabay also provides a list of values that a brand can give to all its stakeholders and which can be summarized as: functional, social, emotional, epistemic and conditional.
Individual subconscious and general unconscious mind are also important in the right side of the brain, specially, when it comes to assess things.
Jonathan Gabay uses the theories by pshycologist Karl Gustav Jung to explain how we link both sides of the brain when taking decisions and how our subconscious mind is the result of the connection between general inconscious mind and personality.
The book also talks about expectations and explains that dealing with them is essential to be able to manage reputation. Expectations mean opportunities but also risks and demand constant innovation. Despite all the information that companies can have now, it is even more important to know the expectation of their stakeholders and how to gain their trust.
Today, brand reputation and the fact that people believe and trust in a brand depend on the decisions where emotional and rational memories crash.
That's why emotions control our decisions and look for a logical reason in the left hemisphere (a logos or argumentation) that is coherent with the emotional reason that they have found already in the left side (a pathos or emotion), everything supported by an ethos or moral conviction. These three elements are necessary to obtain a good reputation as a brand in the current context.
Best organizations are able to adapt to change; they successfully overcome problems and face challenges. The current crisis has shown that those abilities –in addition to make sense of business, encourage people, establish relationships and achieve a good reputation– are the way to obtain the best results.
Reputation is probably the most important asset owned by a company, and not only because it attracts and retains the best resources, but also because it leverages the value of the company’s unique character and identity by showing how well the company manages to align its external perception with the internal reality.
This document was prepared by Corporate Excellence and among other sources contains references to Corporate Reputation and Competitiveness by Gary Davies and Rosa Chun, Professors at the University of Manchester (the UK) and the IMD Business School (Switzerland), respectively, and published by Routledge in 2003.
NAM’s Chief Economist, Dr. Chad Moutray, and his renowned ability to break-down complex data into straightforward, usable nuggets of information goes through the latest numbers for you. His in-depth insight will provides a comprehensive look at manufacturing industry trends and the current state of the manufacturing economy in America.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
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USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
1. Economic Update
The Entrepreneurship Institute
Annual Presidents’ Forum of Philadelphia
June 6, 2012
Luke A. Tilley
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF PHILADELPHIA
3. FOMC Forecast - Real GDP Growth
5.0
2.5
0.0
Percent (%)
Real GDP
y/y
-2.5
Real GDP
-5.0 q/q
-7.5
-10.0
Long
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Run
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Minutes , April 2012
4. Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth
4
3
Q/Q Annualized Change (%)
2
1
0
-1
-2
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Last Point Plotted: Historical 2012:Q1, Forecast 2013: Q2
5. Personal Consumption & Retail Sales
15
10
Retail Sales
Year-over-Year Change (%)
5
0
Personal Consumption
“The Consumer”
-5
-10
-15
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Point Plotted: April 2012
6. Fixed Investment Growth Forecast
15
Q/Q Annualized Change (%)
5
-5
-15
-25
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters
Last Point Plotted: Historical 2012:Q1, Forecast 2013: Q2
7. Manufacturers’ New Orders & Shipments
Nondefense Capital Goods
75
70
65
New Orders
Billions ($)
60
55
Shipments
50
45
40
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Census Bureau & Haver Analytics (NAICS)
Last Point Plotted: March 2012
8. Consumer and C&I Loans
2.0
1.5
($trillions)
C & I Loans
1.0
Consumer
Loans
0.5
0.0
'88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12
Source: Haver Analytics with Break adjusted % Changes reported by FRB
Last Point Plotted: April 2012
9. FOMC Forecast – Labor Market
400 10
9
200
Average Monthly Change (thous.)
8
0
Nonfarm 7
Percent (%)
Payrolls
-200 6
5
-400
Unemployment
4
Rate (%)
-600
3
-800 2
Long
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Run
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Minutes , April 2012
10. Monthly Private Employment Growth – U.S.
300
277
254
250
200
147
150
100 87 82
50
0
-50
2010 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Last Point Plotted: May 2012
11. FOMC Forecast – Inflation
6
PCE
Price Index
4
Percent (%)
2
0
Core PCE
-2
Long
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Run
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Minutes , April 2012
12. SPF: Inflation Expectations
8
6
10-yr CPI Inflation
Expectation
4
Percent (%)
2
Y/Y CPI
Inflation
0
-2
'88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12
Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters
Last Point Plotted: BLS - 2012:Q1; SPF’s 10 yr. CPI Forecast - 2012-2021
13. Summary of the FOMC
Near-Term Forecasts
• GDP – Expected growth rate of 2.1% - 3.0% in 2012,
2.4% - 3.8% in 2013, and 2.9% - 4.3% in 2014
• Unemployment Rate - Expected rate of 7.8% - 8.2% in
2012, 7.0% - 8.1% in 2013, and 6.3% - 7.7% in 2014
• Inflation - Expected to remain contained 1.8% - 2.3% in
2012, 1.5% - 2.1% in 2013, and 1.5% - 2.2% in 2014
15. Philadelphia Fed Current Economic Activity Indexes
Three month Annualized Growth – April 2012
> 4%
3% to 4%
2% to 3%
0.5% to 2%
-0.5% to 0.5%
-2% to -0.5%
-3% to -2%
<-3%
16. Philadelphia Fed Leading Economic Activity Indexes
Predictions of change in Philadelphia Fed Current Economic Activity Indexes
over next 6 months – April 2012
> 4%
3% to 4%
2% to 3%
0.5% to 2%
-0.5% to 0.5%
-2% to -0.5%
-3% to -2%
<-3%
17. Third District Manufacturing – General Activity Index
80
6 Month Expected
60 May „12= 15.0
40
Diffusion Index
20
0
-20
Current Activity
May „12 = -5.8
-40
-60
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Business Outlook Survey – Philadelphia Fed
Last Point Plotted: May 2012
18. National & Regional Unemployment
10
U.S.
8 8.2%
PA
7.5%
6
4
2
0
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Last Point Plotted: U.S. – April 2012 ; PA – March 2012
19. Year-over-Year Job Growth by Sector
PA, NJ, DE – April 2012
45.8
40
Total Jobs = 86.9
Y/Y Job Growth (thousands)
Total Private Jobs = 104.7
19.1
20
12.1
8.3 6.7 8.1
3.0 4.2
0
-10.0
-17.3
-20
Source: BLS
20. Pennsylvania Housing Starts
60
50
Housing Starts (thousands)
40
30
20
10
0
'89 '93 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12
Source: Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ – Housing Starts
Last Point Plotted: 2012: Q1
21. Regional Home Prices
20
Y/Y Change in FHFA Home Price Index (%)
15
10
Philadelphia
Metro Division
5
Pennsylvania
0
-5
-10
'92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Last Point Plotted: PA - 2012: Q1; Phila Metro Division – 2012:Q2
25. Euro Area GDP Share and Growth
Share of Euro Area GDP
2011Q1
Real GDP Growth
Greece, 2.3 2012Q1
All Others, 14.5 (%) q/q
Euro Area 17 0.07
Germany, 28.2
Netherlands, 6. Germany 2.06
5 France 0.18
Spain, 11.1
Italy -3.21
Spain -1.28
France, 20.9 Netherlands -0.63
Italy, 16.6
Source: EuroStat
26. China Manufacturing Index
65
60
55
Index
50
45
40
35
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
Last Point Plotted: May 2012
27. Exchange Rate Regimes Chinese Yuan (¥/$)
8.50
8.00
7.50
Floating-Peg Soft-Pegged Floating-Peg
Rate Rate Rate
7.00 Recent
Depreciation
6.50
6.00
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Last Point Plotted: June 1, 2012
29. Fed Transparency: A Long Process
1994 – First announcement of policy decision (policy changes only)
2000 – Regular post meeting statements, regardless of policy
2002 – Post meeting statements include voting information
2004 – FOMC minutes released after three weeks (from six)
2007 – Economic projections of FOMC participants released
2009 – Economic projections include long-run tendencies
2011 – Chairman starts giving quarterly press conferences
2012 – Statement of long run goals and strategy
Start releasing assessments of appropriate policy
30. FOMC Statement of Longer-Run Goals and
Policy Strategy
• The FOMC is committed to statutory mandate to promote
• Maximum employment, stable prices, moderate long-term interest rates
• Longer run inflation is mainly influenced by monetary
policy, so a nominal target is appropriate
• Sets an inflation target of 2 percent in annual change of PCE price index
• Maximum employment determined by non-monetary
factors, so a nominal target is not appropriate
• Determined by labor force dynamics, fiscal policies, and more
• Inflation and employment goals are generally
complementary
• When they are not, the FOMC takes a balanced approach
Source: FOMC Statement of January 25, 2012
31. Federal Funds Effective Rates & Limits
6
5
4
Fed Funds
Effective Rate
3
2
Fed Funds Rate
1
Upper & Lower Limits
0
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: U.S. Treasury Department, Haver Analytics
Last Point Plotted: Week Ending April 25th, 2012
32. FOMC Projections of Appropriate Policy
Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming:
Year of first increase in federal funds rate
8
7 January 2012
7
April 2012
Number of Participants
6
5
5
4 4
4
3 3 3 3
3
2
2
1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: FOMC Statements of Jan 2012 and April 2012
FIG. 2 Overview of FOMC Participants’ Assessments of Appropriate Monetary Policy
33. FOMC Projections of Appropriate Policy
Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming:
Percent Year-end federal funds rate
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2012 2013 2014 Longer
Run
Source: FOMC Statement of April 25, 2012
FIG. 2 Overview of FOMC Participants’ Assessments of Appropriate Monetary Policy
34. Questions
Luke A. Tilley, Ph.D.
Regional Economic Advisor
luke.tilley@phil.frb.org
Follow us on Twitter: @philadelphiafed
@philfedresearch
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36. The Federal Reserve’s Tools
for Monetary Tightening
• Higher interest on Bank Reserves
• Reverse Repurchase Agreements
• Term Deposits
• Redemption and sales of long term assets:
Treasuries, Agency Debt, MBS
37. Year-over-Year Job Growth by Sector
Pennsylvania – April 2012
20
16.9
14.2
Y/Y Job Growth (thousands)
10 7.8
7.1 6.1
3.5
0.9 0.4
0
-1.5
-10
Total Jobs = 45.7
Total Private Jobs = 63.0
-16.8
-20
Source: BLS
38. SPF: Long Term Inflation Expectations
8
6
10-yr CPI Inflation
Expectation
Percent (%)
4
2
y/y CPI
Inflation
0
-2
'88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12
Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters
Last Point Plotted: 2012: Q2
39. Bond Market Implied Inflation Expectations
3.0
2.0
Percent (%)
10 Year Implied
Inflation Rate
1.0
0.0
1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12
Source: Haver Analytics Using Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Last Point Plotted: April 2012
40. Survey of Professional Forecasters: Treasury yields move up
9
8
BAA Corp
7
6
Percent (%)
5
4 AAA Corp
3 10 year T-note
2
3 month T-bill
1
0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Moody’s, FRB Philadelphia
Last Point Plotted: 2012:Q1 (historical), 2013:Q2 (forecast)
41. U.S. Home Sales and Starts
3.00 8.0
2.50 Existing Home
Sales (right)
6.0
2.00
Millions
Millions
1.50 4.0
1.00
Housing Starts 2.0
0.50 (left)
0.00 0.0
'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12
Source: National Association of REALTORS, Census Bureau
Last Point Plotted: Home Sales 2011:Q4, Housing Starts 2012:Q1
42. US Dollar versus Major Currencies
120
110
100
March 1973=100
90
80
70
60
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Last Point Plotted: March 2012
43. Crude Oil Prices
150
125
100
WTI $/barrel
75
50
25
0
'07 '08 '10 '12
Source: Haver Analytics
Last Point Plotted: Week of May 11, 2012
44. Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey
4500
Hires / Separations
4250
Thousands
4000
3750
Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12
Source: BLS/Haver Analytics
Last Point Plotted: March 2012
45. Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
800
Number of Claims (thousands)
650
Initial weekly
claims
500
370
350
4 week moving average
200
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: Department of Labor, BLS
Last Point Plotted: Week of May 19, 2012
46. Total Unemployed & Long Term Unemployed
41%
Apr. „12
16
Number of Unemployed People (millions)
12
17%
Apr. „07
8
Unemployed
0-26 wks
4
Long-term
Unemployed
(over 27 wks)
0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: BLS, Department of Labor
Last Point Plotted: April 2012
47. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Selected Assets
3,000
GSE Securities
2,500
2,000
Totals ($ Bill)
GSE MBS
1,500
Liquidity
Liquidity Swaps Programs Treasuries
1,000 Long-Term
500
Treasuries
0
Short-Term
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Last Point Plotted: April 2012
48. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Selected Liabilities
3,000
2,500
2,000
Totals ($ Bill)
Bank Reserves
1,500
Treasury Balance and
Other Liabilities
1,000
500 Currency in Circulation
0
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Last Point Plotted: April 2012
49. Monetary Policy Normalization
Expected Sequence of Key Elements
1. Cease reinvesting some or all payments of principal on the securities
holdings in the SOMA
2. Modify forward guidance on the path of the federal funds rate and
initiate temporary reserve-draining operations
3. Begin raising target for the federal funds rate, and make
adjustments to interest on excess reserves and excess reserve levels
4. Commence sales of agency securities from the
SOMA, communicated to public, and at a steady and gradual pace
5. Eliminate the SOMA’s holdings of agency securities over a period of
three to five years
Source: Minutes of the FOMC June 21-22, 2011
Editor's Notes
Please contact:AARON ROSENBAUM at Aaron.Rosenbaum@phil.frb.orgfor updated maps each month
Please contact:AARON ROSENBAUM at Aaron.Rosenbaum@phil.frb.orgfor updated maps each month
*NOTE: The implied 10-year spot inflation rate (FIN10) is the 10-year TreasuryYield at Constant Maturity (FCM10) minus the 10-year inflation-indexedTreasury Yield Constant Maturity (FII10). It is the implied inflation rateover the next 10 years.