1) Columbus MSA employment increased sharply during Q1 2012, gaining 9,400 jobs. Healthcare employment enjoyed particularly strong growth, adding 2,700 jobs.
2) Manufacturing lost 3,300 jobs during the quarter, suggesting improving efficiency rather than weakness in the sector itself.
3) The Columbus region unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in March from 6.8% due to an increase in the number of active job seekers despite a decline later in the quarter.
2. Th
e QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012
EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COLUMBUS REGION UNEMPLOYMENT
Columbus MSA employment increased sharply during the
RATE
first quarter, gaining 9,400 jobs (1.0%). Ohio employment
increased 0.8% and national employment rose 0.5%. The 11- 12%
102.0
-adjusted 100.0 10%
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in March from 6.8%, but 98.0 8%
remained well below the 7.5% state rate and the 8.2% U.S. 96.0
6%
rate. As shown in the chart at the left, the number of active 94.0
4%
local job-seekers increased during the quarter, despite a 92.0
decline in March. This was the primary reason for the 90.0 2%
increase in the regional unemployment rate and suggests 88.0 0%
4/09
4/08
7/08
10/08
7/09
10/09
4/10
1/08
1/09
4/11
10/11
7/10
10/10
7/11
1/10
1/11
1/12
10/08
4/09
4/08
7/08
7/09
10/09
4/10
1/08
1/09
4/11
10/11
7/10
10/10
7/11
1/10
1/11
1/12
increasing optimism. Still, the difference between reported
labor force and the level assuming normal growth indicates
Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus Region Ohio U.S.
that many discouraged workers remain on the sidelines.
Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Stats.
Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC.
COLUMBUS REGION LABOR FORCE
1,120
1,070
Thousands
1,020
970
920
4/11
4/08
10/08
4/09
10/09
1/10
1/08
7/09
7/08
4/10
10/10
1/09
10/11
7/10
1/11
7/11
1/12
Labor force
Labor force, normal growth
Resident employment
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Stats.
Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC.
1
3. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & MANUFACTURING
The charts on this and the next page highlight employment
WHOLESALE
110.0 110.0
Distribution industries (including transportation,
105.0 105.0
warehousing, and wholesale trade) added 1,000 jobs (1.3%)
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
100.0 100.0
during the first quarter versus statewide growth of 1.9% and
95.0 95.0
0.6% nationwide. Manufacturing lost 3,300 jobs (5.0%) 90.0 90.0
while Ohio employment increased 1.3% and U.S. 85.0 85.0
employment rose 1.0%. The weakness in local 80.0 80.0
manufacturing employment growth seems to be due to 75.0 75.0
70.0 70.0
improving efficiency rather than weakness in the sector
4/09
4/08
10/08
1/11
7/08
7/09
10/09
4/10
10/10
1/08
1/09
4/11
10/11
7/10
7/11
1/10
1/12
4/09
4/08
10/08
1/11
7/08
7/09
10/09
1/09
4/10
10/10
4/11
10/11
1/08
7/10
7/11
1/10
1/12
itself. However, Columbus Region manufacturers are likely
to reach the limit of their productivity growth and will need
Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US
to increase employment, as their counterparts have
elsewhere. Business service employment increased 2,300
(1.6%), better than the statewide gain of 0.5% and the U.S.
gain of 1.1%. Finance and insurance lost 400 jobs (0.6%),
compared to gains of 0.5% in Ohio and 0.2% nationwide.
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES FINANCE & INSURANCE
110.0 110.0
105.0 105.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
100.0 100.0
95.0 95.0
90.0 90.0
85.0 85.0
80.0 80.0
75.0 75.0
70.0 70.0
10/11
4/08
4/09
7/08
10/08
7/09
10/09
4/10
1/08
1/09
4/11
7/10
10/10
7/11
1/10
1/11
1/12
10/11
4/08
4/09
7/08
10/08
7/09
10/09
4/10
4/11
1/08
1/09
7/10
10/10
7/11
1/10
1/11
1/12
Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US
Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC.
2
4. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (continued)
HEALTHCARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
Columbus MSA healthcare employment enjoyed
particularly strong growth, gaining 2,700 jobs (2.4%) versus
125.0 110.0
Ohio and U.S growth of 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively. While
120.0 105.0
it is possible that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may revise
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
115.0 100.0
these estimates downward later , the latest increase in 95.0
110.0
healthcare employment is part of a longer-term trend. 105.0 90.0
Leisure and hospitality lost 500 jobs (0.5%), compared to 100.0 85.0
statewide growth of 0.1% and U.S. growth of 0.9%. 95.0 80.0
Government employment was essentially unchanged in the 90.0 75.0
85.0 70.0
Columbus MSA after a sustained decline in 2011.
10/08
4/09
4/08
7/08
7/09
10/09
1/09
4/10
4/11
10/11
1/08
7/10
10/10
7/11
1/10
1/11
1/12
10/10
4/08
10/08
4/09
1/11
7/09
10/09
7/08
4/10
1/08
1/09
4/11
10/11
7/10
7/11
1/10
1/12
Nationwide government employment was also unchanged
but the sector gained 0.2% in Ohio. Columbus MSA retail
Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US
added a massive 3,400 jobs (3.5%) while Ohio gained 1.6%
and the U.S. lost 0.3%. The $28.4 billion in taxable sales in
the Region during 2011 represented an after-inflation
increase of 2.8% from the 2010 level.
GOVERNMENT RETAIL
110.0
110.0
105.0
105.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0
100.0 100.0
95.0 95.0
90.0 90.0
85.0 85.0
80.0 80.0
75.0 75.0
70.0 70.0
4/08
7/11
10/08
4/09
10/09
4/10
4/11
1/08
1/09
7/08
7/09
10/10
10/11
1/10
7/10
1/11
1/12
4/09
4/08
10/08
10/09
4/10
4/11
1/08
1/09
7/08
7/09
10/10
7/11
10/11
1/10
7/10
1/11
1/12
Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US
Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC.
3
5. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q1 2012
CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS REVISIONS
TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT CONSTRUCTION
Each March the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses more
accurate information to correct the previous two years of 950.0 40.0
Current Employment Statistics estimates. The corrections 38.0
940.0 36.0
this year increased 2011 employment significantly
34.0
930.0
Thousands
Thousands
particularly in the second half, as shown in the monthly 32.0
employment chart below. Average employment in 2011 is 920.0 30.0
28.0
now estimated as 916,900, an increase of 6,500 from the 910.0
26.0
original estimate. December employment was increased by
900.0 24.0
9,200. Growth for the year is now estimated at 13,600 jobs 22.0
1.5% rather than 0.7%. Annual estimates were increased by 890.0 20.0
2010
2011
2008
2009
2007
2011
2010
2007
2009
2008
6,400 for education and healthcare, 2,100 for manufacturing,
and 1,200 for financial activities. The largest downward Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev.
revisions were in construction (1,700) and business services
(1,600).
TOTAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PAYROLL MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE TRADE
EMPLOYMENT, MONTHLY
930.0 80.0
39.5
78.0
920.0 76.0 39.0
74.0 38.5
910.0
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands
72.0
38.0
900.0 70.0
68.0 37.5
890.0 66.0
37.0
880.0 64.0
62.0 36.5
870.0 60.0 36.0
2010
2011
2008
2007
2009
2011
2010
2007
2008
2009
Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev. Post-rev. Pre-rev.
Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC.
4