Driverless trucking is NOT five years away -- our work in progress "infographic" on progress in the development of automated Class 8 truck transport

1. Driverless Trucking is NOT
Five Years Away
June, 2017 by Roy Allen Reynolds
level4transport@gmail.com
level4transport.com (under construction)
Computer, Sensor-Guided Semi-Truck/Trailer Testing & Operations for American Interstates and Freeways
714.785.4123
Work in Progress: Ver 1.51

2. It’s Nearly Here!
Otto announced in May, 2016 tested software for guiding 18-wheelers
along Interstates and Freeway
● Successfully testing Volvo VNL 780s in Nevada NOW
● Daimler debuted Freightliner Inspiration, testing in Nevada
● No additional highway infrastructure required
○ i.e. no embedded cabling, metal or electronics in roadbed
● Vehicles monitored by hands-off Driver for legal compliance
○ Driver intervenes in emergent situation, or off-highway transit (e.g. last
mile, fueling, dock maneuvers, trailer swaps)
● Demoed on I5 and 101 in California
● Automatic transmissions required
○ Better mileage achieved (9mpg vs. 7mpg per CR England)
● Otto conversion said to cost only $30,000
● Pelaton testing platooning in US
○ 2016: 12 driverless trucks were tested on European roads, including
Scania, Daimler, Volvo, MAN, Iveco and DAF.
● Google (and others) driverless cars proving very successful testing
in traffic now in northern CA, AZ, WA, TX
● Uber expected to be driverless in less than 5 years
○ Uber currently valued at $62.5 Billion; has significant
political clout to cause favorable legal treatment and rulings
○ Uber acquired Otto in August, 2016 for $680 million Daimler’s Freightliner Inspiration
Photo: Daimler AG
Otto’s Volvo 780
All Otto photos: Otto website or Google Images

3. Driverless Technology
● Otto’s test configuration
○ Uses 3-D mapping, lidar, radar,
roof-mounted cameras
○ 2nd tractor braking system
● Four Otto founders all ex-Googlers
○ Including original head of driverless
project
○ And head of Maps project
○ Now staffed at 90+
○ San Francisco-based
● Tractors will include newest safety features
○ Adaptive cruise control
○ Lane departure, collision warnings
○ Emergency stop
○ Overspeed monitoring
○ External/internal video
● Daimler first to be licensed in Nevada
● Otto has offered retrofitting of 1,000 trucks at
no charge to owner
● Driver “amenities” (seating, a/c, heat, controls)
said to represent 30-40% of tractor cost
Otto
DaimlerDaimler

4. Multiple states now support driverless vehicle testing
Current federal regulations don’t prevent companies from testing self-driving systems
Road testing of driverless CARS legal in:
● Nevada
● California
● Arizona
● Michigan
● North Dakota
● Florida
● Tennessee
● Utah
● District of Columbia
● Texas (also trucks)
Expected to be approved (legislation underway):
● New York
● Ohio Turnpike, Ohio State
● Pennsylvania (future DOT testing state)
○ PA’s Carnegie Mellon hosts two driverless projects, one
sponsored by Uber which is testing now
● New Jersey
● Colorado (recent testing)
● Illinois
○ Eighteen states have introduced bills this year
regarding autonomous vehicles (trucks.com)
● Nine states to serve as testing grounds
○ Including Iowa, Maryland, Wisconsin, North Carolina
● Platoon testing expected soon in Arkansas, Iowa, South
Carolina, and California
Per Wikipedia, March, 2016

5. Multiple states now support driverless vehicle testing,
continued
● To encourage the development of autonomous trucking technology and platooning, the adjoining states of Michigan, Ohio
and Pennsylvania announced the formation of the Smart Belt Coalition early this year. This research and development
coalition is made up of the departments of transportation in the three states, the University of Michigan, Ohio State
University, and Carnegie Mellon University, as well as the Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission, the Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission, and Ohio’s Transportation Research Center.
(http://www.prweb.com/releases/2017/04/prweb14283446.htm)
● Ontario (Canada) even committed $80 million over five years to create an Autonomous Vehicle Innovation Network

6. US DOT Approves Nine States for Driverless Vehicle Testing
Sites
1. City of Pittsburgh and the Thomas D. Larson
Pennsylvania Transportation Institute
2. Texas AV Proving Grounds Partnership
3. US Army Aberdeen Test Center (Maryland)
4. American Center for Mobility at Willow Run
(Michigan)
5. Contra Costa Transportation Authority and
GoMentum Station (CA Site #1)
6. San Diego Association of Governments (CA
Site #2)
7. Iowa City Area Development Group
8. University of Wisconsin-Madison
9. Central Florida Automated Vehicle Partners
10. North Carolina Turnpike Authority
DOT Announcement 01.17.2017

7. States and Feds becoming increasingly supportive of
Driverless Technology
State-sanctioned first commercial delivery in
Colorado; November, 2016
● Ft. Collins → Colorado Springs
● No driver intervention required
● Safety monitor occupied sleeper berth
● Washington Post Video
● Otto video
● LA Times: ...Feds have placed a bet that
driverless cars and trucks will save lives
● DOT: Federal Automated Vehicles Policy (10/16)
● WSJ: U.S. Proposes Spending $4 Billion to
Encourage Driverless Cars
The drive was as mundane as the beer in the trailer. At 12:30 am, after
leaving the brewery in Fort Collins and merging onto Interstate 25a, an Otto
driver punched a switch labeled “engage,” and, once sure autonomous mode
had, in fact, engaged, climbed out of his seat. He buckled the safety belt
behind him, to keep the warning chime from driving him crazy as the truck
trundled 120 miles south to Colorado Springs. --Wired 10.25.16

8. Safety, Insurance, Maintenance Issues
● Feds report big rigs represent only 5.6% of traffic volume, but 9,5% of
fatalities
○ Driver “key” in 87% of tractor/trailer crashes
○ BLS: One in six American worker deaths are truck drivers
● As of March, 2016, Google had test driven their fleet of vehicles, in
autonomous mode, 1,498,214 miles
○ Google blames only ONE minor accident on its technology
■ All other accidents attributed to human error
● Otto acts as intelligent co-driver
○ Ideal for interstate and freeway driving, especially at night
■ Feds report night fatalities 3x greater than daytime
○ Expected to improve on human driver in bad weather
○ Analogous to an airliner on auto-pilot
○ Easily governed, Otto allows for slower speed operation (fuel
consumption said to be least at 45mph); contrary to drivers’ per
mile incentives
○ Driver assumes control on city streets, and for yard maneuvering
(load/unloading, coupling/dropping trailers)
● Expect reduction in insurance costs when safety claims proven
● Daimler: “Results of our recent study clearly show: Driver drowsiness
decreases by 25 percent through autonomous driving.”
● Explore Halo Automatic Tire Monitor/Inflator for MPG, tire wear

9. Long-term Dividends, Consequences I
● Team driving for maximum equipment utilization most prized
by trucking firms
○ Otto becomes subordinate half of the team
○ Attractive to O/Os as team driver is added for,
potentially, doubling of driving miles, hours
○ Driver said to be 75% of load cost
○ Solo driving becomes non-cost justifiable
● Otto should have no hourly DOT restrictions
● NO real potential for unionization
● Minimized effects from most weather
● Safety, fuel economy attractive to bOttom line AND
government regulators
● Reduced turnover and recruiting expenses
○ Retiring drivers attrited, unnecessary to replace
○ Possible loss of federal revenue streams
■ Training, especially veterans
● However, Udacity has introduced
driverless technology training as a
potential revenue stream
○ Reduce 11% driver turnover (average longevity with
employer said to be 4.5 months)
● Vice/HBO: “Morgan Stanley estimates savings from
self-driving trucks at $168 billion/year, $70 billion from
labor savings alone”
WorldHealth.net: The potential saving to the freight transportation industry is estimated to be $168 Billion annually.
The savings are expected to come from labor ($70 Billion), fuel efficiency ($35 Billion), productivity ($27 Billion) and
accidents ($36 Billion), before including any estimates from non-truck freight modes like air and rail. It’s regulation,
and not technology that stands in the way of eliminating people from behind the wheel. Although trucking companies
are likely to lobby hard for the legal reform so they can save on labor, which represents an estimated 34% of
operational costs per mile, Morgan Stanley conservatively estimates that the freight industry could save as $168
Billion annually by harnessing autonomous technology – $70 Billion of which would come from reducing staff. In
addition to cost savings, fleets of automated trucks could save lives. Crashes involving large trucks killed 3,903
people in the US in 2014, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and a further 110,000
people were injured. More than 90% of the accidents were caused at least in part by driver error. What next for
drivers? Where does this leave the 3.5 million truckers whose livelihoods depend on the need for a human behind the
wheel? Truck Driver is not a profession for the future.

10. Long-term Dividends, Consequences II
Warren Buffett: "Autonomous vehicles would hurt us if they spread to trucks,"
Buffett told shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting on Saturday. If
self-driving trucks become predominant on the roads, it could steal business from
Berkshire owned railroad Burlington Northern, Buffett hinted. Buffett
acknowledged that autonomous cars are "coming", and could also "hurt"
Berkshire's insurance business Geico.
Tesla Electric Tractor “Teaser”
True: Michael Ducker, chief executive of FedEx Freight, one of the
largest shipment U.S. companies, told the Financial Times that it was
regulation and social acceptance, not technology barriers, that would
determine how soon self-driving tech became widely adopted in US
trucking.
-- http://nws.mx/2rsxayF

11. New Players
● Starsky Robotics
● Embark
● NVidia
● Drive.ai
● Argo
● Didi
● Einride
● Tesla driverless
● Uber Freight
● FedEx, Amazon and UPS
Embark in Nevada
Photo: http://embarkdrive.com
[FedEx CEO Michael] “Ducker doesn’t see self-driving technology as a reason to
remove the driver completely. Referring again to the aeronautic industry, he
outlines a scenario akin to how pilots utilize autopilot for most of the flight,
but humans are responsible for take-offs and landings in addition to continual
monitoring. The relationship can be symbiotic, as experienced drivers are
needed for tight maneuvering at many delivery points, while self-driving
through the night on open stretches of highway can give the driver much
needed rest — a human requirement that has hampered the efficiency of the
industry since its inception.” http://bit.ly/2pkmzFn

12. Our Proposal
● As owner/operator, equip leased tractor with Otto hardware and
software for real world operation concentrated in the states now
allowing testing
○ Consider similar strategy when/if Freightliner Inspiration
available
● Recruit other drivers to grow small O/O driverless fleet
● Receive support from partner trucking firm:
○ Truck acquisition suitable to Otto
○ Preferential loads and routing in and nearby the seven “legal”
states
○ Legal, risk management and Insurance support
○ Political support (e.g. lobby governments to adopt legislation
similar to the 7 states for testing, increase weight limits
allowed)
○ Accommodate dry, refrigerated, high-value and HazMat loads
○ Driver recruitment
● Allow testing, data (Qualcomm, mileage, routing, fuel consumption)
feedback to Otto and/or Daimler
○ Support in- and ex-vehicle video
● Allow use of Level 4 Transport brand in joint promotions, social
media, video blogs, print Daimler

13. Short and Long Term Consequences -- Drivers
● Reduced Turnover due to lessened workload, more paid hours?
○ Q3, 2016: ATA says driver turnover at 81%
● CTA claims 70k driving positions open
○ Automation attracts millennials?
○ ATA 2015: Average driver age in the OTR Truckload industry is 49
● Watch for onboard monitoring of driver position, face for consciousness,
readiness
● But vehicle automation could mean less driver “hometime”
All charts per ATA Truck Driver Shortage
Analysis 2015

14. Safety
● Truck driving is among the deadliest occupations in America, with 745 drivers killed on the job in 2015, the latest year for which there is
federal data. Trucking transportation occupations accounted for slightly more than a quarter of all work-related fatalities in 2015, more than
any other U.S. job, according to an annual workplace fatality report from the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. There
were 4,067 people killed and an estimated 116,000 people injured in crashes involving large trucks in 2015, according to the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration. -- Trucks.com

15. Federal Hours of Service (HOS) Rules for Commercial Truck Drivers affected,
mitigated or likely modified by Driverless Technology
Discussed in ATRI Study: “World's First Autonomous Vehicle Policy”, November, 2016
https://cms.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulations/hours-service/summary-hours-service-regulations

16. Who’s doing Driverless?
● Google (with various manufacturers)
● Ford
● Nissan
● Baidu (Chinese)
● SAIC (Chinese, with Alibaba)
● Daimler
● Volvo
● US Army & Marines
● Bosch
● General Motors (including Lyft)
● Tesla trucks and buses
○ Musk’s Master Plan includes Autopilot
● Mercedes Benz
● Toyota
● Uber (with various manufacturers)
● Honda
● Hyundai/Kia
● Samsung
● BMW
● Nissan
● Scania
● Navistar
● Even Dominos
Mercedes trucks platooning in Europe
Elon Musk...claims that Tesla will look to produce buses, semi trucks, compact SUVs, and “a new kind of
pickup truck.” “Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next
year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while
increasing safety and making it really fun to operate,” said Musk. ETF Daily News 07.21.16

17. Waymo Enters Market (June, 2017)
https://www.trucks.com/2017/06/02/waymo-testing-self-
driving-class-8-truck/

18. ● Nikola prepares to launch zero emissions,hydrogen-electric
Class 8 truck
● Toyota 'Project Portal' hydrogen fuel-cell heavy-duty
semi-tractor
● Elon Musk shares glimpse of Tesla’s electric big rig
● Qualcomm announces embedded pads in pavement that
transfer charge to batteries -- 20 kilowatts at highway speeds
Hybrids and Electrics
Nikola One
Will Hydrogen, Natural Gas or Re-chargeable Batteries succeed?
Tesla rendering
UPS Hydrogen Fuel CellKenworth Fuel Cell Tractor

19. http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/autonomous-driving.jpg
Who else is in Driverless Technology?

20. Evolutionary Phases of Driverless Trucking (Speculated)
McKinsey & Co. projects that by 2025, and least one of every three new heavy trucks will have high-level automation technology that eliminates the
need for a full-time driver
● Early Adoption
○ Software development completed ala Google vehicles
○ Interfaces built to onboard GPS navigation systems (e.g. Qualcomm, PeopleNet)
○ Class 8 tractor/trailers allowed to road test in “driverless” legal states
○ Safety issues addressed, successes publicized, trade press and mainstream media trends positive
○ Continued lobbying to legalize testing on all interstates and freeways (i.e. limited access divided highways)
○ American Trucking Association buy-in
● Limited Adoption – Driver-Monitored (“Chaperoned”)
○ First “real world” use on limited access, pedestrian-restricted. divided public highways (typified by on-and off-ramps)
○ City or residential deliveries, pickups by only human driver (but software-assisted for safety, collision avoidance)
○ Trailer uncoupling/loading/unloading, fueling by only human handlers
○ Limited but improved interfaces with truck/driver logging/GPS systems
○ Public acceptance passes 50%; same acceptance as driverless cars
○ Perceived safety issues diminished by published, marketed “safe miles” results ala https://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/reports/
○ Complete interfaces with truck/driver logging/GPS systems
○ More truck manufacturers offer driverless options, real operational and price competition evolves
○ Non-diesel propulsion popularized (e.g. Nikola)
● Full Adoption – Completely Robotized
○ Human handlers attend only docks, local needs
○ Hands-free coupling/uncoupling, fueling
○ Trucks support only limited or no human controls; can be locally maneuvered for yard maneuvering
○ Nation-wide load transit automated from dock-to-dock
○ Truck automation fulling integrated with load logistics, scheduling, accounting, GPS routing
○ On-demand (Uber-like) demand and scheduling

21. Level 0: This one is pretty basic. The driver (human) controls it all: steering, brakes, throttle, power. It's what you've been doing all along.
Level 1: This semi-autonomous level means that most functions are still controlled by a driver, but some (like braking) can be done automatically by
the car.
Level 2: In level 2, at least 2 functions are automated, like cruise control and lane-centering. It means that the "driver is disengaged from physically
operating the vehicle by having his or her hands off the steering wheel AND foot off pedal at the same time." The driver must be still always be ready
to take control of the vehicle, however. So, level 2 means two functions automated. Easy to remember, right?
Level 3: Drivers are still necessary in level 3 cars, but are able to completely shift "safety-critical functions" to the vehicle, under certain traffic or
environmental conditions. It means that the driver is still present, but is not required to monitor the situation in the same way it does for previous
levels. Jim McBride, autonomous vehicles expert at Ford, said, "the biggest demarcation is between Levels 3 and 4." He's focused on getting Ford
straight to Level 4, since Level 3, which involves transferring control from car to human, can often pose difficulties. "We're not going to ask the driver
to instantaneously intervene—that's not a fair proposition."
Level 4: This is what is meant by "fully autonomous." According to the DOT, level 4 vehicles are "designed to perform all safety-critical driving
functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip." It's what Tesla says will be available by 2018.
Level 5: It should be noted that some organizations, like the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), have their own charts that refer to "Level 5"
vehicles. This refers to a fully-autonomous vehicle that does not have any option for human driving—no steering wheel or controls.
Autonomous Driving Levels 0 to 5: Understanding the
Differences
Per Tech Republic, January, 2016

22. Otto YouTube Video
Otto/Budweiser Colorado Delivery
Bloomberg: Freightliner Inspiration
Take A Ride In One Of The World's First Self Driving
Trucks: VICE News Tonight
These self-driving trucks may be key to Uber’s Future
Embark’s Peterbilt in Nevada
Freightliner Platooning Video
Daimler's Self Driving Truck - Nevada World's First
Licensed Autonomous Freightliner Inspiration
“The future ain't what it used to be.”
-- Yogi Berra
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