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The document discusses the 2012 drought, analyzing its differences from historical droughts and the increasing demand for agricultural production due to a growing global middle class. It emphasizes the challenges of maintaining crop yields amid limited land and water resources, while also highlighting advancements in maize production and the need for sustainable agricultural practices. Collaboration and investment in agricultural research and development are urged to enhance resilience to future droughts.
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DRC Manuscript.pptx
- 1. The 2012 Drought: Perspectives,Opportunities, and Obligations Jim Gaffney & The Drought Research Council
- 2. History of DroughtSince AD 992 - Dendrochronology Recreated from Stambaugh et al., 2011 4) 1934 2) 1800 3) 1821 6) 1820 8) 1874 1) 1020 Decadal/Multi-Decadal Droughts 5) 1548 – 1560 4) 1661 - 1705 1) 1815 – 1844 3) 1849 – 1880 2) 1909 - 1938 Worst Drought Years in History
- 3. Why Is the2012 Drought Different? Emerging global middle class: China example From http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2012/update102
- 4. The Challenge ofGlobal Prosperity Historically high demand Drought events have greater impact Limited expansion of land and water resources Yield – major crops may be losing ground
- 5. lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll Uganda Malawi Mozambique Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Angola Zambia South Africa Uganda Malawi Mozambique Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Angola Zambia Zimbabwe South Africa llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll Addressingthe Challenge: • 9 years • 448 hybrids • 17 countries • National research programs • Private seed companies • CIMMYT Weber et al. 2012. Crop Science 52 Maize Managed Stress Screening in Africa • Erratic timing and intensity of heat and drought
- 6. Hybrid Development forDrought in the Western U.S. Cornbelt FOCUS ON • Yield under drought • Emergence under stress • Resistance to • brittle snap • head smut • Goss’s Wilt • Plus herbicide and insect control traits
- 7. Success on Whichto Build • 40% more maize per acre today in the U.S. with same amounts of nitrogen and available water as 25 - 30 years ago • 2012 maize yields (drought) better than good year yields 25 years ago • U.S. maize production has among smallest water footprints of any grain crop • Nebraska farmers produce 12.5 T/ha maize with low global warming potential, high energy balance, and efficient irrigation and use of inputs
- 8. Drought has beencommon Global prosperity is on the rise Additional pressure on land and water Public investment in Ag R&D waning (in OECD) Numerous challenges Opportunities Summary
- 9. Collaborations needed Develop technologywhere its most needed Objective, science-based regulation and policy is critical Prioritize public agriculture R&D and resource it Improve the resiliency of global agricultural production in the face of drought Call to Action/Obligations
- 10. Academia J.S. Boyer, Universityof Delaware P. Byrne, Colorado State University K.G. Cassman, University of Nebraska D. Delmer, University of California, Davis (Emeritus) N. Kenny, Texas A&M University D. Porter, Texas A&M University A. Schlegel, Kansas State University J. Sawyer, Iowa State University T. Setter, Cornell University R.E. Sharp, University of Missouri T. Vyn, Purdue University, The Drought Research Council DuPont Pioneer M. Cooper J. Gaffney T. Greene F. Gruis J. Habben N. Hausmann R. Lafitte S. Paszkiewicz J. Schussler J. Shanahan D. Warner
Editor's Notes
- #3 Some perspective, based on history. The point is that drought is a very common theme throughout history and periods of severe drought are well-represented throughout the centuries.Driest year on record of past 1,000 years? 1020Century best represented by drought? 19th century with 4 of top 10 driest years, and 2 periods of decadal/multi-decadal drought yearsDuring the middle of the millennia, entire civilizations collapsed, relocated, disappeared. The 20th century and up until now has been relatively benign. We are no climate change deniers. Climate change simply adds another layer of uncertainty to what we know: drought is common, and maybe more common than we’ve become accustomed to lately.
- #4 The rest of Asia and Africa are on a slower pace than China, but meat consumption is growing almost everywhere except Western countries.This should be seen as a welcome sign – more and more people lifted out of severe poverty; fewer people wondering where their next meal is coming from; and a much higher level of nutrition; diseases caused by deficiencies of Fe, Zn, Vit. B12, Vit A, for examples, a thing of the past.Other interesting facts about China (from Earth Policy Institute; http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2012/update102): Pork is China’s favorite meatChina has half the world’s pigs - ~476MChinese eat an average of 84 pounds of pork per person per year (Americans at 59 lbs/person)Americans are still kings of beef, consuming 79 lbs/person/year (9X more than Chinese)
- #5 Aside from greater demand, we have other concerns that have been documented:the yield gains of rice, maize, and wheat under high yield potential and water scarce conditions may be in decline9, 10, 11, and may not be achieving the 1.16 to 1.31% annual gains needed to meet demand12; crop innovations have taken up to 20 years from discovery to proof-of-concept and even longer for farmer adoption12; many important food crops have received relatively limited attention13; and a large and on-going investment in genetic engineering to improve crop yields under drought conditions has delivered few commercial products14.
- #6 Weber, V.S., Melchinger, A.E., Magorokosho, C., Makumbi, D., Bänzinger, M., & Atlin, G.N. Efficiency of managed-stress screening of elite maize hybrids under drought and low nitrogen for yield under rainfed conditions in Southern Africa. Crop Science52, 1011-1020 (2012)Developing hybrid maize for abiotic stress and low nitrogen conditions is critical if African farmers are expected to improve productivity. Erratic timing and intensity of heat and drought events, with some very unforgiving soils, have complicated genotypic selection under various soil nitrogen levels and have likely contributed to inefficiency of developing higher yielding hybrids for Africa.In this study, nitrogen stress limited yield more frequently than reproductive-stage drought stress in low-yielding trials. The implication is that screening under low nitrogen would be more effective than managed drought screening to identify hybrids with superior yield under the random abiotic stress that characterizes these African cropping systems. Identifying and implementing improved selection criteria will put better yielding hybrids in the hands of farmers more quickly.And the take-home message is that progress of this scale takes tremendous effort and resourcing, and COLLABORATION.
- #7 This is the story of DuPont Pioneer AQUAmax development and and the complexities of modern hybrid development.Multiple years, locations, and devotion, and working with public research institutions to help us develop full value for our customers.Same take-home message as the CIMMYT Africa example: serious effort is needed for progress to be made.
- #8 Osteen, C. et al., Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators, 2012 Edition, USDA Economic Research Service Economic Information Bulletin EIB-98, 55 pp, August (2012) http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eib-economic-information-bulletin/eib98.aspx Mekonnen, M.M. & Hoekstra, A.Y. The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, 1577-1600. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1577/2011/hess-15-1577-2011.html (2011) Grassini, P. & Cassman, K.G. High-yield maize with large net energy yield and small global warming intensity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 109, 1074-1079 (2012) Westfall, D.G., Peterson, G.A. & Hansen N.C. Conserving and optimizing limited water for crop production. Journal of Crop Improvement24, 70-84 (2010) Colaizzi, P.D., Gowda, P.H., Marek, T. H. & Porter, D. O. Irrigation in the Texas High Plains: A brief history and potential reductions in demand. Irrigation and Drainage 58, 257-274 (2009)
- #11 A team of university and industry experts Specializing in drought, irrigation, plant physiology, and agronomic research Representing both public and private sectorsUnited to share ideas, expertise and develop a better understanding of ongoing research, future needs, and research plans J.S. Boyer1, P. Byrne2, K.G.Cassman3 M. Cooper4, D. Delmer5, J. Gaffney3, T. Greene3, F. Gruis3, J. Habben3 ,N. Hausmann3, N. Kenny6, R. Lafitte3, S. Paszkiewicz3, D. Porter6, A. Schlegel7, J. Schussler3,T. Setter8, J. Shanahan3, R. Sharp9, T. Vyn10, D. Warner31University of Delaware, 2Colorado State University, 3DuPont Pioneer, 4University of Nebraska, 5University of California, Davis (Emeritus), 6Texas A&M, 7Kansas State University, 8Cornell University, 9University of Missouri, 10Purdue UniversityThe authors are members of the Drought Research Council, a team of university and industry experts in the fields of drought and agronomic research representing both public and private sectors. They have united to share ideas and expertise in order to develop a better understanding of ongoing research, future needs, and research plans.