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Dr Julio Friedmann - The next decade of CCS projects and technology
1. The next decade of CCS
projects and technology
Global CCS Institute Annual Meeting
November 5th, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Dr. S. Julio Friedmann
Dep. Asst. Sect., Clean Coal & Carbon Mgmt,
Office of Fossil Energy, US DOE
4. 4
Nuclear 8%
Power generation efficiency 3%
Renewables 21%
End-use fuel switching 12%
CCS 14%
End-use fuel & elec. efficiency 42%
CCS
“All of the above” required
5. 5
Technical findings (2008-present)
IPCC WG1 report: must read policy summary!
Continued GHG accumulations
Challenges will all energy scale-ups
Policy drivers
President’s Climate Action Plan
EPA: NSPS (draft) and ESPS (pending)
Global economic context
Investors speak
Global coal increase
A $6B climate mitigation program at DOE
6. 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1972
1982
1986
1996
2000
2004
2008
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
Operate Execute Define Evaluate Cum. Volume
Number of Projects
Volume CO2 (mtpa)
Data from Global CCS Institute
7. Co-Gen Unit
VSVAS AV eVsesseslesls
Blowers
CO2 Compressor
Existing SMR
& TEG Unit CO2 Surge
Tanks
Operational! 1.4M tons stored so far
8.
9. Decatur, IL
ADM 2013
300,000 tons/y today;
Over 900,000 tons to date
1 M tons/y shortly
CO2 Pipe to Injection Well
Final class VI permit
13. Projects involve UKY, WVU, UWYO
Other recent developments:
• New projects: Sinopec, CNPC, & Yanchang
• Pending CO2 pipeline deals
• Central govt. invitations to US independents
14.
15. Advanced CO2 capture technologies
Many pathways to success
Novel Solvents New concepts
Advanced membranes Solid sorbents
16. TRL 2 Successes
from FWP,
SBIR/STTR, ARPA-E
Transfer to Office of
Major Demonstrations
Scope of
Capture Program
“Valley of Death” for Technologies
We need more 2nd generation pilots!
17. 0.5 Mwe
Goal (10 tpd CO2)
Test technologies under realistic conditions to
reduce the cost of CO2 capture
Advantages
• National resource to validate performance
Pilot Solvent Test Unit (PSTU)
Pre-combustion Capture Center
and operations
• Consistent testing procedures and data
• Very good safety and environmental record
• Platform for international partnership and
sharing
Status
• New 5 year commitment to operator
(Southern Company)
• >20 technologies tested
• 100’s of technologies screened
18. • Many 10’s of billions producible (just US)
• 100’s of billions worldwide
• Provide revenues: break even for capital
retrofit costs in 7-8 years!
• Conventional EOR uses 2-3 tons CO2 /bbl
100
Billion Barrels
88.1
Domestic Oil Resources
47.4
2.3
80
60
40
20
0
Technically
Recoverable
Economically
Recoverable*
Already
Produced/
Proven
Million Metric Tons
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
ARI, 2008
Total U.S.
CO2 Demand
Market CO2 demand
New
Lower-48
CO2 Demand
Net Lower-48
From Captured
CO2 Emissions
0
12,500
9,700
7,500
2,800*
2,200**
>25B tons storage potential from conventional EOR
That’s ½ the US coal fleet for ~20 years
19. • 2x-3x recovery potential and
storage potential (12-18 Gt in ROZ
vs. 6.4 for main pay zones, PB)
• Possibility for carbon-negative HC
Main Pay Zone (MPZ)
Base of Producing OWC
Transition Zone (TZ)
Residual Oil Zone (ROZ)
Base of Ultimate OWC
4800
4850
4900
4950
5000
5050
OWC
5100
5150
5200
5250
5300
5350
5400
5450
Oil Saturation %
100 0
“State of the Art” “Next Generation”
(millions) (millions)
CO2 Storage (tonnes) 19 109
Storage Capacity Utilization 13% 76%
Oil Recovery (barrels) 64 180
% Carbon Neutral (“Green Oil”) 80% 160%
ARI, 2008
ARI, 2008
Sources: MIT, 2010; ARI 2007 and 2010; NETL 2008
20. Steve Melzer’s Expert Analysis of CO2 for EOR in an Actual Texas Oilfield:
Production in Red Circle = Total Barrels of Oil from CO2
Production of “T” = Barrels from Tertiary CO2 Recovery in Main Pay Zone
“Q” = Barrels from “Quaternary” CO2 Recovery in Residual Oil Zone
20
21. New study shows huge potential for ROZ fairways
Partition 1
Partition 2
Russell So. ODC
Partition 3
Lower San Andres
Shelf Margin
Partition 5
Hanford
Seminole
W. Seminole
Black Watch
Central Basin Platform
Adair
TLOC
Cedar Lake
GMK & GMK So.
Robertson
Havemeyer
N
Seminole E
S
Carm-Ann
Jenkins
Homann
Partition 4
ROZ
“1”
ROZ
“2”
121 wells in 4 counties, Permian Basin
109 Billion OOIP (!) 20-30% est. recovery
60-100B tons CO2 storage potential (ROZ)
22. Negative C oil is real
22
One can claim GHG reductions either from the source (e.g.,
power plant) OR from the produced oil. While both can’t be
counted, one must be.
• Conventional EOR uses 6000-7000 scf CO2/barrel
• On molecular and mass-balance basis, this = 82-95% of C
• At roughly 7500-8000 scf/bbl, this is carbon neutral
• Some EOR today uses >9000 scf/bbl: NEGATIVE C
• ROZ production requires 10,000-15,000 scf/bbl: NEGATIVE C
23. 23
Bourcier et al., 2011
Ready to pilot! Seeking partners and possibilities
24. 24
Bourcier et al., 2011
Ready to pilot! Seeking partners and possibilities
26. 50% less time; up to 90% less material; small supply chains
Projection
Microstereolithography
Direct Ink Writing
Electrophoretic Deposition Laser sintering and net shaping
27. Partnerships in Commerce
– Joint ventures
– International investment
– “Showcase” projects
Accelerated deployment
– Data sharing
– International Science Projects
Many platforms
– Clean energy ministerial
– APEC, G7, COP20, COP21
– WEC; Boao Forum
11th CSLF Ministerial
Nov. 2013
Minister’s visit to Kemper project
Nov. 2013
28. CSLF: Multinational platform
– 22 countries + E.C.
– 11 years in practice
– Productive technical and policy
working groups
Pending actions
– Data sharing
– International Science Projects
Pending meetings
– 22 countries + E.C.
– 11 years in practice
– Productive technical and policy
working groups
Mission
An international initiative focused on
improved cost-effective technologies
for the separation and capture of
carbon dioxide for its utilization and
long-term safe storage
29. White Rose
Peterhead
(UK)
Uthmaniyah (KSA)
Quest (CAN)
Lula (BRA)
GreenGen (PRC)
Shenli
Yanchang
ESI (UAE)
Gorgon (AUS)
Key unit of innovation – global engines of discovery
30. Central secretariat
– Global projects
– Data gathering and sharing
– Industrial and governmental
perspectives
Convening authority
– Fora and meetings
– International initiatives
Non-governmental agent
– Neutral platform
– 5 years in practice
– Productive technical and policy
working groups
Editor's Notes
Public sentiment fickle – engineers, scientists and others in the technology development space need to weather the changes in public attitudes and continue to develop and mature options
Examples, wind power, ethanol, coal, natural gas (fracking)
China seems to be getting more serious about CCS as evidenced by comments by NDRC that they want to become the leader in CCS
Others in the US and elsewhere are also becoming more pragmatic about the that Coal will be with us for some time.
11/10/2014 3:09 AM
Unconventional gas production (i.e., shale gas, tight gas, coalbed methane) will increasingly dominate U.S. production in the coming decades.
In an IEA scenario that assumes robust production of unconventional gas, the share of gas in the global energy mix reaches 25% in 2035, overtaking coal to become the second-largest primary energy source after oil.
Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case focus on the factors that shape U.S. energy markets through 2040, under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the projection period. This early release focuses on the AEO2013 Reference case, which provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, or regulations or potential technology breakthroughs
11/10/2014 3:09 AM
11/10/2014 3:09 AM
2nd gen technologies – Ready fo scale up to large scale pilots in 2015/16
Transformational Technologies – Need to begin adding transformational technologies to the R&D portfolio starting in 2015
11/10/2014 3:09 AM
11/10/2014 3:09 AM
For Focus Areas, provide descriptive title statement about individual customers or stakeholders, role and relevant funding or other support. For Pillars – describe LLNL program / mission ST&E need (new science base, technology, wforce, …
For Focus Areas, provide descriptive title statement about individual customers or stakeholders, role and relevant funding or other support. For Pillars – describe LLNL program / mission ST&E need (new science base, technology, wforce, …