The role of Direct Air Capture and Carbon Dioxide Removal in well below 2C scenarios in ETSAP-TIAM

1. The role of Direct Air Capture and
Carbon Dioxide Removal in Well below
2°C scenarios in ETSAP-TIAM
James Glynn1, Niall Mac Dowell2, Giulia Realmonte3, Brian Ó Gallachóir1
1.MaREI-UCC, 2. CEP-ICL, 3. Grantham-ICL
Corresponding Author: *james.glynn@ucc.ie | @james_glynn
ETSAP Workshop | 18th June 2018 | Gothenburg, SWEDEN.

2. Research Question & Motivation
• Does Direct Air Capture have a role to play in achieving the 1.5°C
temperature target?
• We explore overshoot and return to a 1.5C temperature increase by 2100,
• or an upper 1.5C temperature increase threshold limit for all century.
• We explore the uncertainties and hard constraints between carbon
budget limits and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) potential from
BECCS and DAC. (heat potentials & bioenergy potentials)
• What is the change in Primary Energy Demand and Mix from 2°C to
1.5°C with and without DAC?
• Can DAC & CDR reduce energy system cost increases when moving
from Baseline 2°C to 1.5°C?

3. First, what is CDR? & What is DAC?
• CDR stands for Carbon Dioxide Removal – by technological or biological means
• Carbon Capture, and Storage (CCS) – EOR at Statoil Sleipner field since 1996, Petra Nova Coal-CCS (EOR)
• Negative Emissions Technologies (NETS)
• BIOENERGY with CCS (BECCS) – ADM BECCS (bioethanol) plant Illinois, USA
• Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Sequestration (DACCS) (CLIMEWORKS – Iceland geothermal Pilot plant)
• Direct Air Capture (DAC) and synthetic liquid fuels. (Carbon Engineering – USA pilot plant (Keith et al. (2018))

4. CDR context in SSPx-RCP2.6 IAM scenarios
CumulativeMtCO2
emissionsfrom2010
GlobalmeanWarming
abovepre-industrial°C
Susta
inable
BIO?
Paris Agreement
Paris Agreement

5. Method: ETSAP-TIAM model outline
• 15 Region linear programming bottom-up energy system model of IEA-ETSAP
• Integrated model of the entire energy system
• Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (2100)
• Demand driven by exogenous energy service demands
• SSP2 from OECD Env-LINKS CGE model
• Regional Structural detail of the economy
• Partial and dynamic equilibrium
• Price-elastic demands
• General Equilibrium with MACRO
• Minimizes the total system cost
• Or Maximises Consumption/Utility
• Hybrid General Equilibrium MSA
• Optimal technology selection
• Environmental constraints
• GHG, Local Air Pollution & Damages
• Integrated Simple Climate Model
• Myopic and Stochastic run options

6. Direct Air Capture (DAC) Specification
• American Physical Society (2011) – Direct Air
Capture of CO2 with Chemicals.
• Keith, D. W., Holmes, G., St. Angelo, D. & Heidel,
K. A Process for Capturing CO2 from the
Atmosphere. Joule (2018).
doi:10.1016/j.joule.2018.05.006
• Capture Capacity
• 1 MtCO2/yr
• Electricity Requirement
• 0GJ/tCO2 - 1.78 GJ/tCO2
• Heat requirement
• Low Temp ~100C
• 8.1 GJ/tCO2 - 5.25 GJ/tCO2
• CAPEX
• $1,140/tCO2/yr ~ $160/tCO2
• OPEX
• $200/tCO2 - $23t/CO2
• Lifespan
• 40-20 years

7. Scenarios [1]
• Base – Drivers are calibrated to SSP2 drivers from the OECD ENV-LINKS.
• Population, GDP, sectoral GVA, Households (still need to fix AEEI & DrvESD coeff)
• All Climate Policy runs are fixed to the Base run to 2020.
• Combinations of the following
• 2°C, and 1.5°C temperature limits with Climate Model controlling for Non-
CO2 GHGs and Exoforcing
• Carbon Budgets applied from 2020-2100
• 1000GtCO2 – 2°C
• 600GtCO2, 400GtCO2, 200GtCO2 – 1.5°C
• Constraints on CO2 sequestration sinks limits
• Full potential (11PtCO2), 1660GtCO2 total horizon, 30GtCO2/yr, linear growth to
30GtCO2/yr by 2100, 10GtCO2/yr, Growth to 10GtCO2/yr
• Direct Air Capture
• Investment Costs – $1,140/tCO2 - $160/tCO2
• Fixed operation and Maintenance Costs - $42/tCO2 - $23/tCO2
• ELC & HET or Gas only, or Gas & Elec

8. Scenarios [2]
Scenario Code Name Description Carbon Budget
(2020-2100)
DAC Costs
BASE_SSP2_11p Reference base case n/a Not available
2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660 2C temperature change limit, with
1660GtCO2 limit on sequestration
1000GtCO2
2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660_DAC Same as above with DAC 1000GtCO2 InvCost $2900/tCO2
VAROM $200/tCO2
2C_SSP2_CB1000_CDR1660_DACloCst Same as above with Low Cost DAC 1000GtCO2 InvCost $100/tCO2
VAROM $50/tCO2
15C_CM21_SSP2_CB600_CDR1660_DAC Overshoot and return to 1.5C by
2100, with 1660GtCO2 limit on
sequestration, with DAC an option
600GtCO2 InvCost $2900/tCO2
VAROM $200/tCO2
15C_CM21_SSP2_CB400_CDR1660_DACl
oCst
Same as above with Low Cost DAC
an option
400GtCO2 InvCost $100/tCO2
VAROM $50/tCO2
15C_CMUP_SSP2_CB600_CDR1660_DAC Stay below 1.5C temperature ceiling,
with 1660GtCO2 limit on
sequestration, with DAC an option
600GtCO2 InvCost $2900/tCO2
VAROM $200/tCO2
15C_CMUP_SSP2_CB400_CDR1660DACl
oCst
Stay below 1.5C temperature ceiling,
with 1660GtCO2 limit on
sequestration, with Low Cost DAC
400GtCO2 InvCost $100/tCO2
VAROM $50/tCO2

9. BASE Scenario
• Base –calibrated to SSP2 drivers from the OECD ENV-LINKS.
• Population, GDP, sectoral GVA, Households
• No Climate control policies
• Fossil fuel dominates Primary energy, with a growing share of renewables in Elec Generation
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
PrimaryEnergy(ExaJoules)
Primary Energy (EJ)
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
ElectricityGeneration(Exajoules)
Electricity Generation (EJ)
Geo, Tidal and Wave
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
CH4 Options
Biomass
Gas and Oil
Coal

10. DAC Penetration from 2C to 1.5C scenarios
• DAC is deployed when Low Cost DAC is available at <$250/tCO2
• Medium-term (2040-50) CO2 capture of 200-300 MtCO2/yr for 1.5C threshold
• Long Term Capture up to 1.6GtCO2/yr with up to 12 EJ in energy input
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2040 2050 2080 2090 2100
GtCO2
CO2 Captured with Direct Air Capture
(GtCO2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat Elec Heat
2040 2050 2090 2100
Exajoules
DAC Energy Input Requirements (EJ)
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAChilocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAChilocst
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst
No 1.5C
temperature
Overshoot
allowed

11. 2C and 1.5C emissions with & without DAC
• Rapid near term CO2 emissions reductions required to remain below a 1.5C threshold.
• Near term deployment of CDR in the form of DAC and BECC forces abatement costs above
$200/tCO2 by 2030
• Overshoot and return to 1.5C follows an accelerated mitigation pathway when
compared to 2C.
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
FossilFuelandIndustryCO2emissions-(GtCO2)
Fossil Fuel and Industry CO2 Emissions (GtCO2)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2030 2050 2070 2090
MarginalAbatementCostofCO2($/tCO2)
Marginal Abatement Cost of CO2 ($/tCO2)
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600
15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst
BASE_SSP2_11p

12. Difference in cumulative CDR
• Low Cost DAC cumulative
Capture of CO2 ranges from 11
GtCO2 in the 2C case,
• 17GtCO2 for the 1.5C threshold
case
• 25GtCO2 in the overshoot and
return to 1.5C case.
• The 1.5C threshold scenario with
Low Cost DAC captures and
additional 49GtCO2 compared
to the without DAC scenario
• The 1.5C threshold scenario with
DAC has 168GtCO2 less CDR
than the 2C case.
• Coal consumption in electricity is
replaced is phased out more
rapidly in this case.
1 -
-49
1
-13
168
-11
-25
-17
-11
-25
-17
-100
-50
-
50
100
150
200
2C 1.5C 2100 1.5C UP 2C 1.5C 2100 1.5C UP
Difference with and without Low
Cost DAC
. Difference from a Low Cost DAC to
2C without DAC
ChangeinCumulativeCO2Emissionsfrom2C
(GtCO22020-2100)
Difference in Total CDR Difference in Direct Air Capture

13. Key Messages
• Staying below a 1.5°C ceiling seems unlikely with current demand outlook
understanding and technology specifications, even with optimistic CDR
costs in the form of Direct Air Capture.
• Negative Emissions technologies and CDR seem to be required to stay well below
2C.
• While DAC may have a near term CDR role to play, BECCS which also provides
energy service requirements (biofuel & electricity), captures and removes more
CO2 in our scenario analysis.
• However, it is likely that there are heat & electricity constraints on DAC deployment in TIAM.
• Future Work with MaREI-UCC, Centre for environmental Policy and Grantham at Imperial
College London
• The costs of achieving ambitious decarbonisation scenarios are highly
sensitive to the volume of CO2 removal & Storage
• Carbon Capture and Storage, and other negative emissions technologies require
accelerated development as well as likely demand side measures.
• Some regions may have significantly reduced abatement costs due to their
ability to sequester CO2 in conjunction with considerable renewables
potentials and large geological storage for BECCs & CDR.

14. ETSAP-TIAM waste HET sources for DAC?
• Detailed Bottom Up energy
System Model
• From Energy Reserves, extraction,
transformation, trade, renewable
energy potentials, electricity
generation, conversion to end use
fuels, multiple energy service
demands per sector.
• Integrated Climate Module
• Integrated Macroeconomic
model for price demand general
equilibrium.
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
Extraction
Upstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
Composition
Auto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
capture
CH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills Manure
Bio burning, rice,
enteric ferm
Wastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELC
ELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.
I***
I** (6)
T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Low Temp
Waste Heat?

15. References
Energy Input
Electricity
[GJ/ton]
Heat
[GJ/ton]
DAC 1
Strong Base
Sorbents
APS; Mazzotti, 2012 [1]
Keith, 2013 and 2018 [2]
Carbon Engineering
1.8
(centralized elec)
8.1
(Natural Gas)
DAC2
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
Goeppert, 2012
Climeworks [3]
Global Thermostat [4]
1.1
(centralized elec)
7.2
(Waste Heat)
DAC21
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
Goeppert, 2012
Climeworks [3]
Global Thermostat [4]
1.1
(centralized elec)
7.2
(low-T heat)
Technology AnalyzedNext Steps - DAC Diagnostics @Grantham

16. Energy Input Cost Estimates
[$/ton]
Transport
Cost
Electricity
[GJ/ton]
Heat
[GJ/ton]
Investment O&M
(no energy)
[$/ton]
DAC 1
Strong Base
Sorbents
HIGH
LOW
1.8
1.6
8.1
6
220 [1]
160 [2]
76 [1]
60 [2]
1-10
DAC2
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
HIGH
LOW
1.1
0.7
7.2
5.4
90
50 [3]
260
150 [3]
10
DAC21
Solid Adsorbents
Amine-based
HIGH
LOW
1.1
0.7
7.2
5.4
90
50 [3]
260
150 [3]
1-10
Energy and Cost AssumptionsNext Steps - DAC Diagnostics @Grantham

17. Energy Input Cost Estimates Transport Cost
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
BASE X
constant
X 10
Low Cost X
constant
X 10
Low Energy X
constant
X 10
Exogenous Cost
Reduction
6% annual
cost reduction
X 10
Low Transport X
constant
X 1
ScenariosNext Steps - DAC Diagnostics @Grantham

18. Next Steps - DAC diagnostics @Grantham
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
3.LowEnergy
4.LowTransportCost
5.BASE
1.ExogenousCostRed
2.LowCost(constant)
DAC1 DAC2 DAC21 DAC1 DAC2 DAC21 DAC1 DAC2 DAC21
2080 2090 2100
CO2Captured[Gt/yr]
EnergyNeed[EJ/yr]
Energy Requirements for DAC [EJ/yr]
Electricity Heat CO2 captured [Gt/yr]

19. Next Steps - DAC diagnostics @Grantham
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
CO2 Captured [Gt/yr]
DAC1 1. Exogenous Cost Red
DAC1 2. Low Cost (constant)
DAC1 3. Low Energy
DAC1 4. Low Transport Cost
DAC1 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)
DAC2 1. Exogenous Cost Red
DAC2 2. Low Cost (constant)
DAC2 3. Low Energy
DAC2 4. Low Transport Cost
DAC2 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)
DAC21 1. Exogenous Cost Red
DAC21 2. Low Cost (constant)
DAC21 3. Low Energy
DAC21 4. Low Transport Cost
DAC21 5. BASE (High Cost - constant)

20. Thank You
QUESTIONS?

21. “Unlocking the potential of our
marine and renewable energy
resources through the power of
research and innovation”

22. Environmental Research Institute
Instiúd Taighde Comshaoil
Energy Policy and Modelling Group
www.ucc.ie/energypolicy

23. Q&A Backup Slides

24. Scenario Temperature profiles

25. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways drivers

26. 2C & 1.5C Electricity Generation w/wo DAC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600
Exajoules
Electricity Generation (EJ) Geo, Tidal and Wave
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass CCS
Biomass
CH4 Options
Gas CCS
Gas and Oil
Coal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
Exajoules
Electricity Generation (EJ) Geo, Tidal and Wave
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass CCS
Biomass
CH4 Options
Gas CCS
Gas and Oil
Coal
WithoutDACWithLowCostDAC

27. 2C & 1.5C Primary Energy Supply w/wo DAC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600
PrimaryEnergy(Exajoules)
Primary Energy Requirement (EJ) - Climate Scenarios 2C-1.5C
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2C_SSP2_CM_CB1000_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CM21_CB600_CDR16600_DAClocst 15C_SSP2_CMUP_CB400_CDR16600_DAClocst
PrimaryEnergy(Exajoules)
Primary Energy Requirement (EJ) - Climate Scenarios 2C-1.5C-DAC low Cost
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
WithoutDACWithLowCostDAC