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AN INVESTOR VIEW OF POST-COMBUSTION CO₂ CAPTURE
1. An Investor View of Post‐Combustion CO2 Capture
Carbon Capture Summit
Long Beach, California October 19th, 2022
2. Table of contents
2
3 CCS Infrastructure Investing Objectives and Perspectives
Wolf Carbon Solutions: Canada and US
1
CCS Post‐Combustion Capture Opportunity
2
Appendices (Pore Space, Pipeline Specifications)
4
3. Wolf Carbon Solutions Canada – An Operating CCUS Hub
Wolf developed and operates the only multi‐client anthropogenic CCUS system in North America
3
Wolf Assets: CO2 Capture / Compression
• Two sources totalling ~4,400 Mt/day – NWR (refinery) and Nutrien
(fertilizer plant) (2 additional Fortune 500 sources pending)
• Wolf built/owns/operates 35,000 hp of CO2 compression and water
removal / disposal
Wolf Assets: CO2 Transport
• Currently delivers CO2 to EOR fields
• Wolf built / owns / operates the 150 mile, 10 Mtpa capacity CO2
pipeline
• 27 months of operation with >3.0 million tonnes CO2 captured to
date
Wolf Assets: CO2 Sequestration / Pore Space
• Extensive area of well‐known deep saline aquifer pore space
adjacent to ACTL, secured in March 2022
• Initial test drilling 1Q 2023, service on‐line in ~2024
1
Wolf CO2
Pore Space
CO2 Transport
(EOR pore space)
CO2 Capture &
Compression
Pending Sources:
2000‐6000 Mt/day
4. 4
Wolf Carbon Solutions US – Mount Simon Hub CCS Project
Project Attributes
1. Capital Efficiency: Maximizing tonne CO2/capex
2. Customer‐sponsored, proven, and operating
sequestration already in place (ADM Decatur)
3. Full value chain offering (Capture, transport,
sequestration)
4. Minimized pipeline stakeholder impact. Only 2
states, modest mileage, avoid eminent domain,
highest tons CO2 moved per mile
Wolf project is best in class on volume / capital
efficiency attributes vs. competing Midwest projects
Archer Daniels Midland CO2 Sources
Other CO2 Emitters
Mount Simon Sequestration
Wolf CO2 Pipeline region
5. 5
Combustion Is the Largest Source of Stationary CO2 for CCS Infrastructure
100% Combustion. Electric power is 2/3 of CO2
emissions from stationary sources.
Mostly Combustion. Fossil fuels burned in industrial
furnaces / boilers plus some other misc. process CO2
Higher‐Purity Process CO2. Usually originates from
chemical processing / reforming of hydrocarbons
Mostly Biogenic. CO2 originates from ‘new’ biomass,
not liberated from ancient biomass (fossil fuel)
Most recent and pending CCS infrastructure
investment is focused on non‐combustion CO2:
High‐purity, low‐capture‐cost, process sources
Niche opportunities where there are select
higher‐purity CO2 streams, often from
hydrocarbon reforming (e.g. hydrogen
production from natural gas)
Source: Great Plains Institute Regional White Paper 2020
MM Mtpa
2
6. 6
Post‐Combustion: CO2 Capture Cost is Still the Key Hurdle for Widespread CCS
Transport and storage costs benefit from
natural economy of scale per multi‐user
volumes. (Capture generally does not)
Capture cost per tonne is inversely
proportional to source CO2 concentration.
Capture cost ‘floor’ is the compression/
liquefaction cost for low‐pressure CO2
(almost all sources) at $20‐$30 / tonne
Post‐combustion CO2 sources are all
generally >$100/tonne CCS cost, primarily
in capture. Still doesn’t generally work at
the new $85 45Q value.
CCS
Unit
Cost
Source
CO
2
Content
Post‐combustion
dilute CO2 Sources
Process & Higher‐Purity CO2 Sources
7. 7
CCS Infrastructure ‐ Investing Perspectives
What Attributes Are Infrastructure Investors Looking For?
• Intrinsic value – an essential service to the infra users, usage not ‘cyclical’, periodic, or boom‐bust
• Structured Return Drivers ‐ underlying service contracts are the economic foundation, not
correlated to the macro economy
• Continuous and Stable Income ‐ regular cash flow with low volatility, and not requiring cash
reinvesting for growth
• Known and manageable risks – higher levels of manageable risks will require a higher cost of capital,
major loss risks must be insurable.
What are the Inherent Challenges with CCS (and Other) Infrastructure Assets
• Single source of income/return. A failure at any link of the CCS chain will undermine the revenue
• Technical Chain: Complex and intensive processing from capture through to sequestration
• Business Partner Chain: Emitter companies, special technology suppliers, governments
• Large and illiquid Assets: Exit, repurposing, or redeployment are generally impossible if there is a
significant adverse structural event. (e.g. Tech: Kemper Mi. CCS Partner: Nord Stream 2 Pipeline)
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8. 8
Miles’ Law* Applies to CCS Risks: “WhereYou Stand Dependson WhereYou Sit”
CO2 Emitters already own the downside risks of
• Emissions: Producing assets and/or products will be competitively disadvantaged by a high CO2
footprint via carbon taxes/regs or market preference for lower carbon‐index competitor product.
(The “do nothing” case for emitters has some risk, depending on product and jurisdiction)
• Core Business: (non‐emission related items) input costs, market demand, and the general
competitive environment of their product
CCS infrastructure investors are putting up new money to enter a business in hopes of making a return.
• Large quantum (hundreds of millions $) complex assets that must reliably operate for years to get
return OF capital and return ON capital
• CCS infrastructure generally does not support high‐margin/quick payback, and unforseen income
windfalls are rare. (…..but on the other hand, the “do nothing case” is entirely risk‐free)
*Rufus Edward Miles: Chief of the labor and welfare branch of the Bureau of the Budget 1948‐1949
Emitter engagement in the CCS business model – different ends of the spectrum
Low: send flue gas over the plant fence to capture a small free ‘incremental uplift’ (e.g. share of 45Q credits)
High: Mission‐critical core business dependence on cost and reliability of CCS (e.g. regulatory requirement)
9. 9
What are some risks borne by the long‐term CCS infrastructure stakeholders?
1. Regulatory timing: Pipeline and sequestration permits have risk of delay or even possible suspension.
Potential for significant loss of front‐end capital (10%‐20% of total project cost, e.g. energy pipelines)
2. Greenfield Construction: Major project execution capital cost risk (overruns)
3. Source CO2 volumes:
• Market and life‐cycle of underlying emitter assets (e.g. oil refinery, chemical plant, etc.)
• CO2 capture facilities recovery rates, on‐line time, (new capture technology reliability risk)
4. Third Party CO2 volumes: Additional accretive third‐party volumes are added to the system
5. Long Term Energy / Power costs: Electrical power cost for CO2 liquefaction and other energy for
capture processes are key. (energy for pipeline transport and CO2 injection is minimal)
6. CCS O&M costs: e.g. CO2 solvent absorption media performance and life‐cycle , rotating/complex
equipment operational efficiency, overhaul frequency and cost, etc.
7. Geological Risk: Sequestration CO2 migrates, or formation pressure increases, faster than expected
(more capital for pore‐space and wells required)
8. CO2 Revenue and Market Shifts: 45Q program is discontinued some years down the road, value of
carbon offsets changes
These outcomes have the potential to provide material “upside” (most other risks above do not have any upside materiality).
10. 10
Decarbonization: Pathways for Electrical Power Generation and Industrials
Continue Using Fossil Fuels and Decarbonize with CCS
1. Take the carbon out of the fuel before mixing with air and sending to the burner tip. CO2 is easier
to extract from a Hydrogen reformer process than from flue gas.
2. Pick a Winner In Dilute CO2 Capture Technology. Amine absorption, Inorganic Chemical Sorbents,
Temperature/Pressure/Electro Swing Adsorption, Cryogenic Separation
3. Combine pure oxygen (instead of air) with a fossil fuel for combustion to produce “pure CO2 and
water” flue gas.
In all cases above: Operate the combustion‐capture (or hydrogen reformer) at elevated pressure to
save some portion of the $20‐$30 CO2 liquefaction energy, O&M, and capital expense
Competing Alternative Pathways: Eliminate the Use of Fossil Fuels and Forget CCS
• Electricity Generation. “Renewable power plus storage” is approaching competitive parity with gas
• Industrial Heat: Electrify with green power, use a fuel with no carbon (green hydrogen), find a
breakthrough new technology for specific hard‐to‐abate industries. (cement, steel, etc.)
11. 0.49
Cook
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Commercial Foundation Issues Comments, examples
One‐and‐done: single supply to single disposition point All risks are amplified by lack of supply diversity for the infra investment
Stroke‐of‐pen legislation change risk Infra developer typically does not take 100% of future 45Q risk‐reward
Capital Market Retreat and Retrenchment Some banks and equity investors not funding coal‐based or EOR‐based CCS
Misalignment / lack of alignment with the emitter Emitter is apathetic to decarbonization – CCS is purely ancillary revenue
Emitter base business market and regulatory risks Major CCS infra needs a creditworthy emitter to backstop the investment
CO2 Capture Related Investment Barriers
Sustainability paradox – compounding energy consumption
E.g. 1000 MTpd incremental energy use to capture 2000 MTpd CO2 (Wolf
estimate) Includes the unavoidable compression‐liquefaction energy(!)
New chemical or new use of old chemical Unproven in long term – performance, degradation rate, cost (e.g. new solvent)
No operating history for new hardware or new process
“New” is a matter of degree, not typically black and white. Any new patented
process with serial number 001 is difficult. (e.g. hydrogen‐fueled turbines)
Unknown environmental wildcard E.g. trace amounts of sorbent / solvent in scrubbed flue gas and atmosphere
Adverse affect on emitter assets or process Flue gas CO2 capture system backpressure voids a gas turbine warranty
Trace CO2 impurities impact on pipeline metallurgy E.g. SOx NOx combustion products affect corrosion and CO2 phase properties
Critical long‐term component or supply from a start‐up supplier Proprietary custom sorbent media, pellets, beds, etc.
Examples of Investability / Financeability Barriers for Large CCS Infrastructure