Dr Julie Etterson, University of Minnesota, Duluth Presented at the "What is Local? Genetics & Plant Selection in the Urban Context" Symposia. Tuesday, May 23, 2006, American Museum of Natural History

1. Julie R. Etterson Pondering the near future Climate change and the genetics of plant migration and adaptation

2. Populations differ across the species range ? ? ?

4. Evidence of range shifts in mobile organisms Species Location Documented movement 39 butterfly species N.Am, Europe up to 200 km/27 yrs 12 bird species Britain ave. 8.9 km/20 yrs Artic fox Canada southern contraction Red fox Canada northward expansion

5. What about plants?

6. Trees migrated north during periods of glacial retreat 1950

7. 14,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Oak species Pine species Davis, M.B. 1981. In Forest Succession: Concepts and Applications Trees migrated north during periods of glacial retreat

8. Glacier National Park 1850-2100 Hall and Fagre 2003 BioScience 53: 131-140

9. Glacier National Park 1850-2100 Hall and Fagre 2003 BioScience 53: 131-140 http:// www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_model.htm

11. Species Dispersal No dispersal Mammals 2 - 46 9 - 59 Birds 2 - 32 5 - 30 Reptiles 7 - 27 33 - 45 Butterflies 1 - 16 6 - 36 Plants 3 - 27 9 - 57 Projected % extinction from climate change “ … we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’ ” Thomas et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145-148

13. Anomaly Phenology (days) Anomaly Temperature Spring arrival of birds Hatching date Bud break Bud break Temp (M,A) NAO Temp (M,A,M) Plastic responses to climate in Germany Walther et al. 2002. Nature 416:389

17. ? ? ? Chamaecrista fasciculata Partridge Pea

18. ? ? ? Chamaecrista fasciculata Partridge Pea

19. Habitat fragmentation may inhibit northern range expansion

20. Habitat fragmentation may inhibit northern range expansion

21. Habitat fragmentation may inhibit northern range expansion

22. ? ? ? Chamaecrista fasciculata Partridge Pea MN KS OK MN ND SD NA KS OK TX IA Thompson et al. 2000. U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1650 A-B

23. MN KS OK MN ND SD NA KS OK TX IA Thompson et al. 2000. U.S.G.S. Professional Paper 1650 A-B

41. Natural selection differs clinally along the climate gradient MN SITE KS SITE OK SITE Phenology 0.74 a *** - 0.13 b *** 1.00 c *** Leaf number 0.41 a *** 0.54 b *** 0.60 b *** Leaf thickness 0.00 a - 0.13 b *** 0.23 c *** MN SITE KS SITE OK SITE Phenology - - Leaf number Leaf thickness - - Standardized direct selection gradients (  i ) Etterson. 2004. Evolution 58:1446-1458

46. Fecundity MN SITE 0.004 0.091 ** 0.272 *** KS SITE 0.087 † 0.020 † 0.082 * OK SITE 0.044 0.151 0.215 * Phenology MN SITE 0.065 0.000 0.136 *** KS SITE 0.028 † 0.000 0.381 *** OK SITE 0.215 ** 0.000 0.265 *** Leaf number MN SITE 0.053 * 0.087 ** 0.097 *** KS SITE 0.121 ** 0.074 *** 0.118 * OK SITE 0.225 ** 0.235 *** 0.205 * Leaf thickness MN SITE 0.181 * 0.088 *** 0.265 † KS SITE 0.058 ** 0.080 ** 0.240 * OK SITE 0.266 *** 0.211 *** 0.070 * Heritability MN POP h 2 KS POP h 2 OK POP h 2 Etterson. 2004. Evolution 58:1459-1471

50. MN POP KS POP OK POP MN SITE 0.5518 ** -0.1281 * KS SITE 0.0055 * -0.0072 † OK SITE 0.0077 † -0.0013 * Predicted evolution taking genetic correlations into account PH LN LT PH LN LT PH LN LT Etterson and Shaw. 2001. Science 294:151-154 -0.0082 †

51. log (Leaf number) log (Leaf thickness g m -2 ) r = 0.47 * log (Leaf number) Phenology r A = - 0.82 *** Antagonistic genetic correlations MN population OK site A Etterson and Shaw. Science 294:151-154 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 -0.82 -0.80 -0.78 -0.76 -0.74 -0.72 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

52. How long will it take populations to evolve optimal phenotype? log (Leaf number) 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 42 28 Phenology 21 log (Leaf thickness g m -2 ) 79 7 Etterson and Shaw. Science 294:151-154 Sites MN KS OK 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 MN KS OK -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 MN KS OK MN KS OK Populations

54. MN site OK site Hybrids produce less seed than local plants ln Estimated Seed Count 0 2 4 6 8 MN MN OK OK F1 F1 F2 F2 F3 F3

56. Increasing temperature in MEC Ave. annual temp. (  F) 1900-2000 across 23 meteorological stations in the Metro East Coast region corrected for the effect of the urban heat island Temperature  F Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region. 2000 http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/reports/assessmentsynth.pdf

57. Hotter summers Temperature  F Ave. summer temp. (  F) 1900-2000 across 23 meteorological stations in the Metro East Coast region corrected for the effect of the urban heat island Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region. 2000 http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/reports/assessmentsynth.pdf

58. Prediction for continued increases in temperature in MEC Temperature  F Predicted temperature for the Metro East Coast region based on current trends and four different regional climate models Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region. 2000 http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/reports/assessmentsynth.pdf

59. Increasing precipitation in MEC Ave. annual temp. (  F) 1900-2000 across 23 meteorological stations in the Metro East Coast region corrected for the effect of the urban heat island Temperature  F Precipitation (inches) Ave. annual precipitation (inches) 1900-2000 across 23 meteorological stations in the Metro East Coast region Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region. 2000 http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/reports/assessmentsynth.pdf

60. But drier summers Precipitation (inches) Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region. 2000 http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/reports/assessmentsynth.pdf

61. Precipitation predictions differ Precipitation (inches) Predicted precipitation for the Metro East Coast region based on current trends and four different regional climate models Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region. 2000 http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/reports/assessmentsynth.pdf

65. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 This is not an extreme climate model

66. MN POP KS POP OK POP MN SITE -0.49 0.46 -0.91 0.28 -0.66 0.31 0.57 0.13 -0.05 KS SITE -0.51 -0.73 † 0.18 -1.02 -0.75 * 0.53 0.27 † -3.97 † -0.30 OK SITE -0.82 *** -0.59 * 0.69 -0.52 -0.63 ** 0.18 0.47 * 0.17 -0.65 Antagonistic and reinforcing genetic correlations Etterson and Shaw. Science 294:151-154 LN LT RS LN LN LT LN LT RS LN RS LN

67. 0 1 2 3 Etterson. 2004. Evolution 58:1459-1471 MN site OK site Fitness gap How big is the fitness gap? 0 1 2 3 Populations MN KS OK 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 MN site KS site Fitness gap