As a futurist I am obligated to attempt to identify inflection points — things that fundamentally disrupt the status quo, change the competitive dynamic, call into question existing practices and require a general cognitive reboot. I predict that four disruptive technologies, mnemonically labeled the “S.M.A.C. Stack” [Social, Mobile, Analytics/Big Data, and the Cloud] will shape the next competitive cycle. These technologies need to be understood, mastered and deployed to maximum effect.

1. Thornton
May
Part 1
Don’t Blow Your S.M.A.C. Stack
[2 April 2014]
thorntonamay@aol.com
Twitter: @deanitla
www.linkedin.com/pub/thornton-may/0/4b2/a22/

2. I would like to begin…
…by saying “Thank You”

3. A Special Session
For a Special Audience
On a Critically Important Topic
At a Unique Moment in Economic History
Honored to be With You…

4.
I
was
“here”
last
year…
Thank
you
for
having
me
back

5. What
do
you
Remember…
…from
my
remarks
last
year?

6. Here’s
my
“high
level”
plan
for
this
year’s
“speech”

7. I
Promise…

8. www.aiim.org/infochaos
Do
YOU
understand
the
business
challenge
of
the
next
10
years?
This
ebook
from
AIIM
President
John
Mancini
explains.

9. to
speak
more
meaningfully
&
memorably

10. I am
a
Futurist!
2014+

11. Not just ANY Futurist…
I am an
Empirical Futurist…
Francis Bacon
[1561-1626]

12. I collect data…

13. I Collect Data…
…by listening to People…

14. I Collect Data…
…by observing what People do…
Workplace
Ethnography
I
juxtapose
“What
I
Hear”
With
“What
I
See”

15. My data
“reeks
of human juices”

16. My Preferred Process…
For converting my research data
into
YOUR actionable insights…
In
a
Perfect
World…
Claude Lorrain, Landscape with Aeneas at Delos [1672]

17. Socratic Exchanges…Would be
a Series of…

18. In that perfect world, we would…
Via a series of time-boxed exercises:
Collaboratively create local data
Compare local data with global research
Collectively ‘map’
the future world of information management

19. The Plan for our
brief time together
Share with you the
Exercises
designed to precipitate
Insights
which embody the
Ideas
which lead to the
Practices
which will define
information management excellence
in the years to come

20. Shibe Park,
akaConnie Mack Stadium,
in Philadelphia,
Today
I Will Be Making
7 points…
Along
the
way
there
will
be:
Take-­‐Aways
AcKon
Items
Models/Frameworks
Exercises
Stories
Lessons
&
Sub-­‐Points

21. What Happens
to Many People
At
Technology Lectures
Session
Roadmap
This is not a ‘lecture’.

22. Your immediate Future
Involves Several Quick Exercises…

23. In
two
[2]
minutes
please
discuss
and
be
prepared
to
list
THE
two
[2]
greatest
changes
ImpacKng
your
career
in
the
next
two
[2]
years
?
2 x 2 x 2
Exercise
thorntonamay@aol.com
@deanitla

24. Report
Backs

25. What Patterns/Trends [if any]
do you perceive in your responses?

26. What is
the ‘big
picture’?

27. Emily Grenader Crowd Painting (Times Square) [2009]
http://emilygrenader.com/crowds02.php
Everybody
is talking
about
“Change”

28. HBO Rome
But haven’t people always been
talking about “Change”?

29. 20th Century Fox
Cleopatra [1963]
always
been
talking
about
“Change”?
But
haven’t
people

30. This is not our first “go” with change
Point
One

31. Prometheus Ted Talk 2023 [28 February 2012]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpYUW0ekPSA
This
is
NOT
Humanity’s
First
“Go”
at
Fundamental
Change
Fire.
100,000 B.C. – stone tools.
4,000 B.C. – the wheel.
20th century – the automobile,
television, nuclear, spacecraft,
internet.
21st century – biotech, nanotech,
fusion and fision and M-theory.
And that was just the first decade.
9th Century A.D. – gunpowder, bit of a game changer that one.
19th century – Eureka, the light bulb!

32. Speaking
Historically…
There
have
been
quite
a
few…
“New
Ages”

33. David
ChrisKan
divides
the
totality
of
history
Big
History
into
eight
threshold
moments
David Christian, Deep History [February 2011]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqc9zX04DXs

34. Threshold 1 Big Bang
Threshold 2 The Stars Light Up
Threshold 3 New Chemical Elements
Threshold 4 Earth &
the Solar System
Threshold 5 Life on Earth
Threshold 6 Appearance of Our Species
Threshold 7 Agriculture
Threshold 8 The Modern Revolution
David
ChrisKan
divides
the
totality
of
history
Big
History
into
eight
threshold
moments
David Christian, Deep History [February 2011]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqc9zX04DXs

35. Big
History’s
Eight
“Threshold
Moments”
http://www.csusmhistory.org/faulk006/thresholds/

36. What
is
the
single
most
important
change
management
lesson
you
have
learned
so
far
in
your
career?
3
Minute
Exercise

37. Report
Backs

38. What Patterns/Trends [if any]
do you perceive
in your responses?

39. This is not
our first
“New Age”
Point
Two

40. 3 minute
exercise
What [if anything]
is
REALLY different
about THIS
“New
Age”?
Deep
Thinking

41. Report Backs

42. What Patterns/Trends [if any]
do you perceive in your responses?

43. Nobody Likes the Status Quo
Points
of
Agreement

44. Mental
Models
The Mind of Society

45. Mental
Models
People seem sort of “angry”

46. 32

47. Point
Three
We are living in
a
Confusing Time

48. For every age, there is
a defining technology
Point
Four

49. The Age we are entering has…
FOUR [4] Defining technologies
Point
Five

50. 41
The Major Waves of
Disruptive Technology Change
People Agree on the
General Shape of the Future
Analy&cs
Big
Data
Social
Media
Mobility
Cloud
For
the
1st
Kme
in
a
very
long
Kme…

51. “Social media's moment will pass – but when?,” New Scientist [18 February 2012].
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328523.300-social-medias-moment-will-pass--but-when.html
Technology
of the Age
"WHEN it's
steam engine time,
people will invent
steam engines.“
Major innovations occur
not when an inventor
is struck by a bolt from the blue,
but when the scientific & social conditions
are ripe.

52. The
Technology
Landscape
is
Changing
John Martin, The Great Day of His Wrath (1851-53).

53. EVERY organization has to progress through
a “wilderness moment”
Regarding
The
SMAC
Stack

54. “When you know
what you’re doing
is not
the right thing
AND
You don’t know
what the right thing
to do is yet
H. James Dallas. COO Medtronics
[6 November 2013]
A Wilderness Moment is…

55. Leaders
Acknowledge
“Uncertainty”
March 9, 2012
GE's Immelt: Global Economy In 'New Era' Of Instability

56. An era of great head scratching….

57. Things
may
be
“blurry”
but
not
“unforecastable”

58. While the “future” may not be
“Knowable”
with decimal-point-precision
It is forecastable to the extent that
Directionally-non-toxic preparations
can be begun
Hypothesis

59. Some Change
Is Forecastable
Point
Six

60. x
Does
Anyone
Recognize
this
PainKng?

61. At Eternity’s Gate
May 1890
Hint:
A
Complicated
Dutchman

62. x
Vincent Van Gogh, The Outskirts of Paris [1886].
Some
Change
is
Forecastable

63. Alan
Wurtzel,
son
of
the
founder,
20
year
employee,
CEO
&
Board
Member
of
Circuit
City
defines
strategy
as:
“The
art
&
science
of
harmonizing
the
resources,
strengths,
and
capaciKes
of
the
organizaKon
to
the
external
environment.

64. From 1983 to 1993 Circuit City was…
the best performing
Fortune 500 Services company stock on the NYSE

65. In 2008 the company filed for bankruptcy.
In early 2009 creditors liquidated all assets.

66. Circuit
City
What
happened?

67. Did
Senior
Management
Become
Stupid?

68. A
Rich
&
Deep
Set
of
Scholarship
Abributes
Enterprise
Demise
to
Management
Incompetence

69. resources,
strengths,
& capacities
of the
organization
Strategic
Success
requires
Two
KNOWs
Deep & brutally honest
understanding of the
external environment.”

70. If YOU were asked to choose
the movie, TV show or work of literature
which comes closest
to capturing the
Essence of the
external environment
facing your enterprise today
What movie/TV show/book
would you pick?
90 Second
exercise

71. Report Backs

72. What Patterns/Trends [if any]
do you perceive
in your responses?

73. The Picture in Our HeadsThere is an island in the ocean where in 1914
a few Englishmen, Frenchmen, and Germans lived. No
cable reaches that island, and the British mail steamer
comes in but once in sixty days.
In September it had not yet come,
and the islanders were still talking about the
latest newspaper which told about
the approaching trial of Madame Caillaux
for the shooting of Gaston Calmette.
It was, therefore, with more than usual eagerness that
the whole colony assembled at the quay
on a day in mid-September to hear from the captain
what the verdict had been.

74. The Picture in Our Heads
Public Opinion [1922]
They learned that
for over six weeks now
those of them who were English
and those of them who were
French had been fighting on behalf
of the sanctity of treaties against
those of them who were Germans.
For six strange weeks they had
acted as if they were friends,
when in fact they were enemies.

75. The Picture
in Our Heads
There was a moment
when the picture of Europe
on which men were
conducting their business
as usual,
did not in any way correspond to
the Europe which was about to
make a jumble of their lives.
did not
in any way
correspond to
the Europe
which was
about to
make a jumble
of their lives.

76. The Picture in Our Heads
There was a time
for each man
when he was
still adjusted
to an environment
that no longer existed.

77. SMAC STACK Mastery is Achievable
Point
Seven

78. [2] Wisdom begins by knowing
that you don’t know
[3] Excellence (ἀρετή- arete)
is teachable & learnable

79. Observation
A subset of
institutions
are on the path to
S.M.A.C. Stack Mastery

80. Howard Payne [Dennis Hopper ]
in Speed [1994]
“What do you do? What do you do?”
taunting police officer
Jack Travern [Keanu Reeves]
hbp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug2hLQv6WeY

81. Patterns of Behavior of Institutions
well along the “Path to Mastery”
Q4 2013/Q1 014 Research
Thornton May, Computerworld [10 February 2014] http://goo.gl/OZXHpk
Step 1: Decide to do something.
Step 2: Craft a narrative.
Step 3: Access Type 1 smartness.
Step 4: Inventory S.M.A.C. resources.
Step 5: Assess readiness.
Step 6: Centrally manage S.M.A.C. resources.
Step 7: Create S.M.A.C. capability.
Step 8: Obtain the support of senior management.
Step 9: Act on insight.
Step 10: Link to behavior.
ObservaKon

82. Your
Choice
Success is a matter of will.
The first step to greatness is to decide to be great.
Napoleon
William Dietrich, Napoleon’s Pyramids [NY: HarperCollins, 2007], 131.

83. 82
How an organization thinks about S.M.A.C.…
Critical
Finding
…will materially impact the value an organization
extracts from S.M.A.C.
Remember "light bulb" jokes?
My favorite was,
"How many shrinks does it take
to change a light bulb?”
“One, but the light bulb must
want to change."

84. See things
as they are
and
act appropriately
Aristotle’s
“Golden
Mean”
AcKon
Item

85. Don’t try to control
what you
can’t control.
Seek to be in
control only
of what you are able.
Stoic
Philosopher
Epictetus
AcKon
Item

86. This is Not our 1st “Go” with Change
This is not our 1st “New Age”
We are living in a Confusing Time
Every age has a defining technology
Our Age has 4 Defining Technologies
Some change is forecastable
S.M.A.C. Stack Mastery is achievable
To
Recap…
Seven Points

87. 2 x 2 x 2 Change Exercise
Change Management
Lessons Exercise
Essence of External
Environment Exercise
Stories Exercises
To
Recap…
Four
Exercises

88. President Nixon: ‘You dress kind of strange, don’t you?’
White House Oval Office
December 21, 1970
Elvis:
‘You have
your show
and
I have
mine.’