The document discusses the concept of uncertainty and flow in work. It provides examples of how taking on more work than can be completed on time increases uncertainty and reduces predictability. Graphs and charts are used to visualize work flow and uncertainty over time. The key lessons are that adding work faster than finishing existing work reduces flow and predictability, controlling work queues rather than timelines can improve flow, and increasing workload increases the odds of missing commitments.

1. The Shape of Uncertainty
Dominica DeGrandis
Director, Learning & Development
@dominicad
dominica@leankit.com
www.leankit.com

2. The next full-margin
rupture of the Cascadia
subduction zone will
spell the worst natural
disaster in the history of
the continent.
The New Yorker
July 20, 2015

3. Year built:
1962
Foundation:
Cinder
blocks with
no rebar
Our house

4. Year built:
1962
Foundation:
Cinder
blocks with
no rebar
Our house

5. Types of Metrics
Descriptive
Predictive
Prescriptive
We are trying to be approximately
right instead of exactly wrong.

6. work
request
done
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
When will work be done?
work
Sep 23

7. work
request
done
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
When will work be done?
work
Sep 23 Oct 1

8. work
request
done
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
When will work be done?
work
The elapsed time for the work to get done is 8 days
Flow time (Process time + wait time) = 8 days
Sep 23 Oct 1

9. Plotting elapsed work Flow timedays
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Oct

10. work
request
done
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
w1
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
More work gets started
w0
w1 comes in and makes it almost all the way
to done, but gets hung up waiting on vendor.
While we’re waiting, we pull in work item w2.
w2

11. work
request
done
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
w1
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
The problem in knowledge work
is delayed feedback
w2
w4w5 w3
Still waiting on w1, now blocked
More work requests arrive
w2 finishes on Oct 2 – took 4 days
w6
w7
w8
Oct 2

12. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Plotting elapsed work Flow timeFlowTimeDays
Oct

13. work
request
done
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
w1
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
Starting new work faster than finishing
prior work = No flow
w2
w4w5 w3
We work on too much stuff at the same time
We don’t realize the impact of dependencies
w6
DR1.1
w8
work
w11
DR1.2
w14 w10w15
DR1.3
DR1.4
w16
Dependency
PRJT
DALY

14. Dependency x 2
you
friend
X
X
X
X
What’s
the
likelihood
of
Arriving
on
Kme?

15. Dependency x 2
you
friend
X
X
X
X
What’s
the
likelihood
of
Arriving
on
Kme?
1 chance in 4 = 25%
of arriving on time

16. Dependency x 3
you
friend
brother
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

17. Dependency x 3
you
friend
brother
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1 chance in 8
= 12.5% of
arriving on time

18. work
request
departs
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
w1
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
Flow - the movement & delivery
of value through the pipeline
w2
w4w5 w3
That point when we said it would only take 2 days,
but it actually took 2 weeks.
We have become unpredictable.
And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.
w6
p1
work
p2
w10
p3p4
w17
A1A2
w7
A3
w18
A4
w19
AUDIT
PRJCT

19. work
request
departs
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
w1
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
Flow - the movement & delivery
of value through the pipeline
w2
w4w5 w3
That point when we said it would only take 2 days,
but it actually took 2 weeks.
We have become unpredictable.
And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.
w6
p1
work
p2
w10
p3p4
w17
A1A2
w7
A3
w18
A4
w19
AUDIT
PRJCT

20. work
request
departs
wait
meet to
discuss
work
wait
work
request
arrives
w1
do
some
work
do
some
work
consider
the work
deliver
Flow - the movement & delivery
of value through the pipeline
w2
w4w5 w3
That point when we said it would only take 2 days,
but it actually took 2 weeks.
We have become unpredictable.
And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.
w6
p1
work
p2
w10
p3p4
w17
A1A2
w7
A3
w18
A4
w19
AUDIT
PRJCT

21. Time series plot for completed work
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
days
Oct
Sat
Sun

22. Percentile line – 50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
days
Oct
50%

23. Percentile lines – 50% and 70%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
days
Oct
50%
70%

24. Percentile lines – 50%, 70%, 90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
days
Oct
50%
70%
90%

25. Map time series plot to histogram
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Oct
0
1
2
3
4
days
27
14
11
8
4
2
1

26. 0
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Histogram – the shape of uncertainty
Oct

27. Visualizing Uncertainty
An uncertain number is a shape.
The longer the tail, the more
unpredictable.
280
90
0-­‐1
10
Number
of
Work
Items
completed
Number
of
days
to
complete
work
items

28. Control Queues Instead of Timelines
Flow time lengthens when WIP
increases.
To optimize and improve flow, we
need to control queues.
200
60
90
0
10
Number
of
Work
Items
done
Number
of
days
to
complete
work
items

29. Average FT 4.3 days.
95% work done < 23 days.
Use this graph to quantify the probability of
completing X% of the work within Y days.
All Ops Work completed Aug 28 –Oct 12

30. Unplanned Work Aug 28 –Oct 12
Aug 28 Oct 12
12
data
points

31. Number
of
Unplanned
Work
items
Unplanned Work Aug 28 –Oct 12
Plan for unplanned work!

32. “If we have data, let’s look at
data. If all we have are
opinions, let’s go with mine.”
Jim Barksdale
former Netscape CEO

33. 5 Take Aways:
1. Consider being approx. right vs. precisely
wrong.
2. Adding work to your plate faster than
completing prior work increases WIP.
3. The odds of being predictable decrease
when WIP increases & FlowTimes elongate
4. Control queues, not timelines to improve
flow.
@dominicad

34. “If predictability is your goal,
the best thing you can do
as a leader is reserve capacity”
Troy Magennis
Founder, Focused Objective

35. Where is the costliest
uncertainty in your
organization?
@dominicad

36. References
@dominicad

37. The Shape of Uncertainty
Dominica DeGrandis
Director, Learning & Development
dominica@leankit.com
www.leankit.com
@dominicad