Keynote presentation on telcofuturism - the specific analysis of future trends applied to the telecom sector, such as blockchain, maachine-learning, drones & contextual/cognitive computing

1. TelcoFuturism….
… and why it matters to all service providers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Metaswitch Forum, May 2016
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

2. About Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting
 Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
 Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
 Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs
 Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV
 Not a deep technical specialist or developer
 Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
 Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

3. Communications is more than just “calls” & conferences
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

4. The Future is getting closer, faster
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Predicted 1916
Discovered 2016
DARPA Challenge 2004
Mainstream 2017/18
Released 2009
Mainstream 2014
Invented 2012
Mainstream 2015
Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer
Released 2010
Mainstream 2014
Not just mainstream – but spinoffs & variations proliferating
CRISPR

5. Futurism isn’t just for the crazy guys in the labs any more
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning
Now: 3-5yrs Foresight
Soon: 1-2yrs Aware
“Sci-Fi” Lab
Concept
Business
Reality

6. The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Chapter by Dean Bubley:
“The Future of the Phone Call”
Other Chapters cover:
AI & machine-learning
Analytics & Big Data
Contextual computing
Crowds & the Sharing Economy
Wearables & quantified-self
3D-printing
IoT, Robots & drones
Autonomous vehicles
Longevity & human enhancement
Green Tech
Financial systems & money
Political & social change

7. Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Analytics&
Machinelearning
Wearables&
futurewellbeing
IoT&sensors
FinTech&
Blockchain
Urbanisation
&smartcities
Biomedicaltech
&humanenhancement
Voice/Video Comms, Collaboration, Context & WebRTC
Future Networks: 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, SDN/NFV etc

8. Smartphones + Crowdsourcing + Developer Platforms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Innovation mainly needs imagination & motivation. Not money.

9. Most telcos & telco execs don’t understand the future
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

10. … and most futurists don’t understand telecoms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
“Telcos &
banks will all
merge”
“Everything
will be
mobile”
“Wireless
power will be
beamed from
cell towers”

11. Focus on purpose & context
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

12. Avoid strategic over-reach: platforms are expensive
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016
Source: RGBstock.com

13. Think about orthogonal trends in society & business
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016

14. Intersections are bi-directional
Drones using telecoms
 5G connectivity for control
 Streaming video
 Identity / security
 Industrial verticals
 Entertainment & consumer
 Precision-agriculture svcs
 Public safety applications
Telecoms using drones
 Site inspection/maintenance
 Coverage testing/mapping
 Delivery B2B / B2C
 Temporary network capacity
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

15. Telecoms meets AI & machine-learning
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Pricing models
Energy
Management
Fraud Detection
Churn Reduction
Quasi-QoS
Path Optimisation Multiple variables Capacity Planning

16. Analytics/Learning – Voice search & emotional analysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

17. Empathy-as-a-service
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
… also see IBM Watson APIs

18. Blockchain
 Mesh networks
 Microbilling
 IoT identity
 Internal security for SDN
 Alternative routing paths
 Roaming agreements
 Early movers:
 Verizon/Filament
 Orange Chainforce
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

19. Sources of value in communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Before a call
/ session
Signal / check
availability
Signal
purpose
Timing
Setup &
configuration
Rendezvous
Device
Identity
During a call
/ session
Quality &
acoustics
Handoff
Translation
Realtime
analysis
Relevant data
Multi-party
UI / control
Interop
After a call /
session
Record & tag
Next actions
Ratings
Post-call
analytics
Ephemerality
OUTCOMES
Reason for a
call / session
Triggers
Scheduling
Forms
Choice /
negotiation of
channel
Context
Social
Workflow
Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity
…. this is just a starting point

20. Enterprise voice & UC trends evolving fast
Context
Conversations
Convenience:
Today’s UC
Calls: Historic &
Functional
• App-embedded comms
• Purpose-driven comms
• Analytics & IoT integration
• Multi-channel
• Workstream/ social
• Persistent collaboration
• Cloud & hybrid delivery
• UCaaS
• Mobile, BYOD
• Basic telephony & IM
• Simple conferencing
• Desktop video
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

21. Engaging with the future….
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
Cross-Organisation
Involvement
Partners & Vendors
Competitions, Incubators &
Hackathons

22. www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
appear.in/disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016