Disruptive Analysis LTE Summit 2011 voice presentation may 2011

Trends in LTE voice & personal
communications
LTE Summit, 18th May 2011

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com

About Disruptive Analysis
 Analyst house & strategic consulting firm
 Founded by Dean Bubley
 Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
 Twitter @disruptivedean & also on LinkedIn and Quora
 Covering mobile VoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001
 Regular focus on the links between innovative mobile network
technologies & the impact on devices and applications
 Partnered with Telco 2.0, Diffraction Analysis & Martin Geddes Consulting
 Coined the term “Happy Pipe” to describe profitable broadband strategies
 Also “Tyranny of the SIM card”, “Mobile data offload” & “Under the floor player”
 Recent reports on Mobile Broadband Traffic Management & RCS
 Upcoming study on Telco-OTT services
 Masterclasses on “Future of Voice”.
 SF event June 30th, London event on July 14th

May 2011 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011

The big picture

2000-2010 • VoIP needed for cost & competition
• Well-defined wholesale models
Fixed broadband & • Centralised & standardised services
VoIP, QoS • Attempts to evolve telephony to APIs

2010-2020 • Power & bandwidth to fit comms tech
LTE, cloud, web 2.0, to human needs, not vice versa
social networks, smart • Many “two-sided” business models
devices, apps, QoE • Fragmentation of voice into 1000 apps


Future telephony economics 101
Supply of basic telephony (or close substitutes)
rising
Regulatory pressures (eg termination fees)
Lower perceived value in phone calls vs. other
communications channels
Accounting rule changes

More users
Possibility to “distribute”
telephony via APIs &
embedded applications
New use cases?
Extra functionality & quality?


Three basic “uses cases” for communications

Presence is “sensuous”
More than on/offline
Includes context & emotion

Source: Martin Geddes Consulting


A dirty little secret….

Humans don’t
really interact with
each other in
“sessions”

…but sessions are easy to control & bill. The challenge is to package sessions
in a way to compete with more “natural” options that are emerging


Voice ≠ Telephony
Now: 2G & 3G Future: Smartphones & LTE
Voice
Voice

Telephony

Telephony

Voicemail Gaming, CEBP,
Conferencing surveillance, social
PTT Video voice, TV voice etc
Video, context, sense
Significant risk that basic telephony & messaging services fall prey to alternatives
that fit better with human psychology. Moving to supply >> demand for voice

LTE era vs 50bn devices: How many with voice?
Possibly 50 billion+
(maybe 1 trillion+)
Billion
devices
35

30 Other

25 LTE phones
Most devices not for
3G phones
20 “primary voice”.
2G phones Scope for secondary
15 IP comms services

10 Full mobile
Most devices VoIP not
5 for “primary #1 priority
voice”
0 Still a lot of
2010 2020 CS mobile
voice

Will future operators all support voice? How?
Full IMS
+ VoLTE

Partial “Velcro”
IMS / GSM or
NGN CSFB or
VoIP VoLGA
Integrated
voice &
data
operators
Cloud Data
voice only &
(non- BYO-
2020 “Straw Man”
access) VoIP
1bn LTE handsets
Partner
Comms services ARPU $20 / mo Skype /
[but 50% carried on 2G/3G/WiFi] Google
$120bn revenue etc + need for continuity at LTE / 3G
= equivalent to 2010 SMS market / 2G /WiFi boundary

IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE?
(With apologies to Monty Python)

3GPP LTE
& GSMA

Fjords, aka RCS
Mobile IMS
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2009/08/mobile-ims-and-lte-networks-dead-parrot.html

Revisiting the VoIP timeline
10% of fixed global
PSTN based on
st SIP spec Skype launched 10m IP-phones
Vocaltec 1 carrier VoIP
released shipped by
Internet VoIP SoftBank / (about 110m
Cisco starts Yahoo VoIP Cisco
software subscribers)
ITU develops selling IP-PBXs launched AT&T VoIP
launched Skype gets
H323 1m Cisco 124m monthly
IP-phones users
shipped

• 8 years to get 10% penetration for fixed-carrier VoIP
against background of old switches, all postpaid (recurring
revenue). No issues of mobility, battery or RF.
• 12 years after ITU release SIP specifications
• OneVoice (later VoLTE) specs announced late 2009
• First VoLTE launches 2012/2013 (?)

LTE voice & VoLTE challenges
 Too many spectrum bands
 Poor optimisation in efficiency, yield, cost & performance
 All sorts of policy-management / steering challenges
 Not all operators will deploy VoLTE, even long-term
 Some will be data-only/primary & not need own voice platform
 Some may partner / encourage / optimise Skype & other 3rd party voice
 Offload / multi-bearer scenarios
 No likelihood of MNOs switching off CS voice before 2020
 Unknown need for optimisation & tuning of RAN for VoLTE
 High probability of OSS / BSS headaches
 Lack of clarity around network-sharing / wholesale scenarios
 Indoor coverage problems, esp. with MIMO
 Massmarket handsets a long way off
 Where is SMS???

Most likely outcome for LTE Voice
Solution 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 onwards Notes
VoLTE Some trials. Many Patchy rollout, more Slow growth but not If it works, OK for
problems found in 700-900MHz universal. Used for basic telephony, not
networks roaming for Voice 2.0
CSFB Few rollouts. Likely May be fixed, but not Fades out as Political choice by
not good user likely mainstream option GSMA / 3GPP
experience
VoLGA Unlikely to be used, May come back if Good option for Could be revisited by
maybe OTT other solutions as those with long CS 3GPP under another
bad as feared legacy ahead name
No operator voice. Used on laptops & Common on LTE May be 2nd voice Some operators will
User picks 3rd pty tablets. Some wholesale networks service along with take fixed bband
smartphone use operator’s own approach
Optimised 3rd-party A few renegade Depends on Skype, Important in specific Could be provided
VoIP operators Google etc pockets but not from other telco as
universal wholesale
Dual-radio “Velcro” Use for SVLTE in Replacement for Probably superseded Battery impact but
CDMA 1x + LTE CSFB in 3GPP? better overall QoE


Towards two-sided business models?
Brands Web
Media & adver players
& -tisers
content Possible payment for QoS, voice API
access, ads, customer info etc
$
Other
$$$
Telco
Telco End users

Whole-
$
sale
But a risk of reversal – telcos paying
for Web QoS, APIs, data, content
Devel- IT And also “not as easy as it looks” to
Govern
opers shops achieve. Platforms, SLAs, IT, sales…
-ment


Some technology gaps?

Telephony & VoIP and Prioritisation Solution for
messaging messaging in & QoS SMS on LTE
model for complex engines for that works
wholesale offload complex
LTE scenarios scenarios
networks

Signalling On-device Advanced Dual-radio
management measuremen acoustic GSM / LTE
for VoLTE, t of user- technology devices and
comms apps perceived optimised for chipsets
& MBB QoE mobile VoIP


Next steps: participate, analyse & collaborate


www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com

+44 (0) 7941 100016


Disruptive Analysis LTE Summit 2011 voice presentation may 2011

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