The document discusses the implications of vendor diversification in private cellular networks, emphasizing the need for broader supplier bases to enhance resilience, security, and reduce costs. It outlines the phases of 5G development from 2021 to 2030, highlighting key trends in network sharing and multi-technology ecosystems. Additionally, it provides an analysis of the current and expected landscape of mobile operators and the need for continued innovation and collaboration in the telecom sector.

1. Private Cellular Networks
The Implications for Vendor Diversification
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
For TechUK, January 2021
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley

2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis @disruptivedean
 Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
 Covering private cellular since 2001
 Advisor to telcos, large & small vendors, investors, government
 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
 Biases: Against monopolies, lazy incumbency & hype
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
Full report &
recommendations on vendor
diversification coming soon.
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3. What problem(s) does supply diversification aim to solve?
• Alternative supplier base in case of problems / interruptions
Network resilience
• Open technologies / interfaces can enable scrutiny
Network security
• Potential for lower-cost options
Network cost
• Avoiding possible duopoly / oligopoly risks
Competition
• Reduces constraints on deployment / coverage & addresses
niche scenarios better (eg indoors, rural)
Market acceleration
• Desire to see UK as a centre of excellence & domestic industrial
growth
UK industry & exports
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
Worthy goals, but differences of opinion, timescales & alternatives.
Purposes should be kept separate & clear

4. Key point: 5G will be phased
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
2030
Medium Term: MNO densification &
mmWave, neutral / wholesale, mass
private & indoor 5G, slicing / verticals
Parallel trends: Open/Virtual RAN, network-sharing & wholesale, private 4G/5G, FWA growth etc
Short Term: 5G main build-out, vendor
swaps, early private 5G & shared
networks, SA cores, geopolitics
Long Term: 6G ecosystem, CO2
focus, democratised cellular, broad
vendor & architectural choices

5. The 5G era will drive transformation of telecom itself
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
National
MNO #1
National
MNO #3
National
MNO #4
TowerCo’s MVNOs
Consolidated national
MNOs
National
MNO #1
City
MNO
Hybrid MNO /
MVNO
Vertical /
industrial
MNO
Transport
MNO
Military /
Public
Safety
MNO
National
MNO
Campus
or
indoor
neutral
host
4G-Era Mobile Operators 5G-Era Mobile Operators

6. Private cellular networks have a broad range of scales
50m 500m 5km 50km 500km
Private / vertical network scale
Office building
Hotel
Shopping mall
Stadium
Ships & Planes
Warehouse / logistics
Finance trading floor
Inside data centres
Hospital complex University
campus
Industrial plant
Airport
Port
Theme park
Business park
Music festival
Smart city
Mining
Oil & gas
Military tactical
Agricultural
Rural neutral host
County-level network
Remote office / retail
Rail network
Highways
Public safety
Utility grid
National wholesale
High-frequency trading
Potential number of networks per major country
1-10
10-100
100-1000
1000+
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
Maybe 500-1000 “enterprise” 4G/5G deployments + maybe 5000+ “micro” deployments (inc. 2G)

7. RAN vendor diversity!
 Private, indoor, campus network vendor
landscapes already well diversified
 Look at Small Cell Forum members list
 15 currently certified vendors small cell
for US CBRS networks
 … plus numerous others for UK private
networks & indoor coverage
 ip.access (now Mavenir) active for 20+ years
 … plus many systems integrators
 … also for FWA
 Demand Diversity = Supply Diversity
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January 2021

8. The RAN is only a part of the diversification story….
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January 2021
Shared,
local &
unlicensed
Spectrum
IoT / MVNO
/ MVNE
platforms
Small
Cells, RUs
WiFi,
cabling
eSIM &
RSP
Backhaul /
Transport
Network
Cloud OSS
/ BSS
Number
ranges &
MNCs
Roaming &
Inter-
connect
Devices &
chipsets
Voice, PTT,
IMS,
UCaaS
cPaas,
video,
messaging
Physical
design,
integrate &
build
OpenRAN /
cRAN
Content &
app partners
Core
network
(EPC or
5GC SA)
Timing
sync
Edge
Compute

9. Future options for Advanced Connectivity in main contexts
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
Macro MNO 5G Indoor MNO 5G Private 5G Public Macro 4G Wi-Fi / Other
Outdoor personal MBB
(phones etc)
Core market N/A N/A
Acceptable for
many years
Some urban Wi-Fi
Outdoor mobile IoT
(vehicles, drones etc)
Core market N/A
Key sectors eg
public safety, rail
Acceptable for
many years
Not realistic
except niches
Indoor / campus
industrial automation
OK for some
settings
Core market Core market Limited utility
Fibre, Wi-Fi 6E/7,
niche wireless
To-the-home broadband
access
Growing FWA
importance
N/A
WISPs, fixed /
cable, muni FWA
Niche FWA
Full-fibre is ideal.
Some 60GHz
In-home (video, smart
devices, phones etc)
Limited reach, esp
highest speeds
Some indoor
solutions in MDUs
Hypothetical
Acceptable but not
ideal
Core market for
Wi-Fi
Enterprise office-type
settings (LAN, IoT)
Unrealistic from
outdoors
Basic coverage
not LAN/IT use
Some use esp for
IoT applications
Basic coverage
useful
Wi-Fi & fixed
ethernet dominate
Sport / entertainment
venues & hotspots
OK for some
venues
Core market Core market Limited capacity
Wi-Fi, esp. with
OpenRoaming

10. Consider broader “Advanced Connectivity” vendor options
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2021
January 2021
Low High
High
Low 5G Network Vendor
Diversity (expected, 2024)
Alternative Technology
Options to 5G eg Wi-Fi,
LPWAN, Satellite
(expected, 2024)
Urban macro
MBB
Outdoor mobile
IoT / V2V
Venues &
hotspots MBB
Industrial /
campus URLLC
To-the-home
FWA
In-home
MBB & IoT
Office indoor
MBB
Wide area
massive IoT
More overall
market-driven
choices
Rural MBB
Small cell
MBB
OpenRAN
maturity

11. www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
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