Deploying Analytics
                 with a Rules-Based
                     Infrastructure
James Taylor,
       CEO
Your presenter
 CEO of Decision Management Solutions

 Decision Management Solutions works with
 clients to improve their business by applying
 analytics and analytic technology to
 automate and improve decisions

 Spent the last 8 years developing the
 concept of Decision Management

 20 years experience in all aspects
 of software including time in
 FICO, PeopleSoft R&D, Ernst & Young


                                    ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   2
AGENDA

         1 2
     Zero value
     analytics are
     easy
                      Operational
                      analytics are
                      hard(er)
                                         3
                                      Introducing
                                      business rules




         4 5 6
     Deploying        Decision        Wrap Up
     analytics with   Management
     business rules
The one slide you need
 It is easy to have analytic success without
 creating business value
 It is especially easy to fail to deliver business
 value when focused on operational analytics
 Business rules and a business rules
 management system provide an ideal
 platform for analytics
 Decision Management ties analytics and
 business rules together in an effective
 framework


                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   4
Zero value analytics are
                   easy




               ©2011 Decision Management Solutions
                                                 5
“ The operation was a
  success…
  But the patient died ”




                ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   6
“ Making information more
 readily available is
 important, but making
 better decisions based on
 information is what pays
         ”
 the bills.

              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   7
What is a decision?
   Data is gathered, considered, analyzed
   A choice or selection is made
   That results in a commitment to action




                       ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   8
Operational
analytics are
  hard(er)
Different kinds of decisions

    Type


  Strategy



   Tactics



Operations



           Low     Economic impact                                High



                            ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   10
Analytic power in operational decisions
 How do I…
   prevent this customer from churning?
   convert this visitor?
   acquire this prospect?
   make this offer compelling to this person?
   identify this claim as fraudulent?
   correctly estimate the risk of this loan?

 It’s not about “aha” moments
  It’s about making better operational decisions
                              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   11
Operational decisions are different

     High           Low                      High
    Volume        Latency                  Variability


    Ensure                                  Manage
                Personalize
  Compliance                                 Risk

                                          Straight
  Unattended
                Self-Service              Through
   Operation
                                         Processing
                               After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 200
                         ©2011 Decision Management Solutions        12
Insights must drive action




                                        ?
                *
               ** * ** *
           *      *      * *
       *          *  * * **
               *          * **
    *  * * ** * * * * * * *
     *       **
       *
           * *
                 *
         *         *    * ** * *
                * * ** * *
                      *




                                   ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   13
Time to deploy models matters




                      ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   14
The three legged stool


                  Business




                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   15
Case: Varolii
 Personalized, automated consumer
 communication SaaS
 Challenge: apply advanced analytics
   Analyze past behavior of consumers
   Drive recommendations to their clients
   Actionable and automatic
 Solution
   Identify key decisions
   Analytically derive new rules based on past
   success
   Integrate client rules with analytic rules
                              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   16
Introducing
business rules
What are business rules?



    “… statements of the
    actions you should take
     when certain business
      conditions are true.”


                       ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   18
Business rules drive decisions



                Decision                              Regulations
   Policy




    History


                                            Experience
                   Legacy
                 Applications
                                ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   19
Unmanageable business rules




public class Application {
private Customer customers[];
private Customer goldCustomers[];
...
public void checkOrder() {
 for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) {
  Customer aCustomer = customers[i];
  if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) {
   numGoldCustomers++;
   goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer;
   if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000)
    aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05);
  }
 }
}

                                                           ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   20
Manageable business rules
                         If customer is GoldCustomer
                          and Home_Equity_Loan_Value is more than $100,000
                          then college_loan_discount = 0.5%

                         If member has greater than 3 prescriptions
                          and prescription’s renewal_date is less than 30 days in the future
                           then set reminder=“email”

                         If patient’s age is less than 18
                          and member’s coverage is “standard”
                          and member’s number_of_claims does not exceed 4
                           then set patient’s coverage to “standard”




Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 4.3


                                                                    ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   21
A Business Rules Management System

 Validation             Testing
    and
 Verification



                                             Decision
                                Deployment
                                                                                             Production
            Rule                             Service                                         Application
          Repository
                                              Rule
                                             Engine



Design              Rule
 Tools           Management
                 Applications

                                              Operational
                                               Database




                                                                After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 6.6


                                                 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions                           22
Case: Health Management
 Personalized health recommendations
 Challenge: multiple sources of tailoring
   Medical research
   Data mining of participant and outcome information
   Best practices in personal health

 Solution
   Replace Java code with JBoss Drools
   Implement best practices as decision tables
   Decision trees from analytic results, medical research
   Implement as additional decision tables
                                   ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   23
Deploying
analytics with
business rules
Business rules and analytics
 Broader set of data for business rules to act on
 Association rules as business rules
 Decision trees as business rules
 Predictive (risk) scorecards as business rules




                               ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   25
Integrate operational and analytic
               Operational
               Systems

                          Business Rules


                   Predictive Analytics
               Analytic
               Systems

                           ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   26
Association rules speak for themselves




                      If basket contains Hats
                       AND basket contains Socks
                      THEN offer category is Active
                      Accessories
                                         Screenshots courtesy of KXEN
                         ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   27
Deploying a decision tree




                                         Screenshots courtesy of IBM
                        ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   28
Scorecards are a powerful tool
       Years Under Contract        Reason Codes
1                          0         Explaining results
2                          5
                                   Transparency
More than 2                10
    Number of Contract Changes       It is really clear how a score
                                     card got its result
0                          0
1                          5       Compliance
More than 1                10        Easy to enforce rules about
    Value Rating of Current Plan     use of specific attributes
Poor                       0       Simplicity
Good                       10
                                     Easy to use and explain
Excellent                  20
                                     Easy to implement
                   Score   30
                                     Although not necessarily easy
                                     to build
                                     ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   29
Deploying a scorecard




Screenshots courtesy of FICO™
                                ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   30
The power of business rules
 Visible, business friendly analytic
 implementation
   Avoiding the mistrust of a “black box”
 Platform for all three groups to share
   All three legs can participate and collaborate
 Time to deploy
   A BRMS handles much of the complexity
 Support for defining actions
   Wrap into decisions

                               ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   31
Integration options
 Native model execution
   Generate code or SQL
   Let the rules call the models when they need them

 Models as rules
   Manual or automatic import of models
   Create rules and rule artifacts that are executable

 Database scoring
   Traditional

 Separate services
   Let the rules call scoring services
                                    ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   32
Cautions
 PMML variations still exist
  Make sure you understand limitations and issues
 Variable creation and PMML
  PMML 4.0 supports variable creation
  Most tools do not export variable definitions
 Matching data
  Operational and analytic data are not always the
  same
  From a flat analytic data set to object models
 Once a model is in rules it can be edited….
                               ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   33
Case: Major medical insurer
 Dental Claims Processing
 Challenge: operationalize fraud models
   Legacy claims system uses fixed business logic
   Analytics models predict provider fraud
   Only currently applied after the fact – pay and chase

 Solution
   Add a rules-based decision service to review claims
   Add rules to define new variables
   Make analytics visible and reviewable by experts
   Easily add judgment as well as analytics
                                  ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   34
From analytics to decision
            management
Don’t start by focusing on the data



                                                            Better
                                    Analytic                decision
                                    insight

                      Derived
                      information




     Available data


                                      ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   36
Start by focusing on the decision


                                                       Better
                                                       decision



                                        Analytic
                                        insight

                      Derived
                      information

     Available data




                                    ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   37
Decision Service Deploys Analytics




                       ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   38
Case: Fiserv
 Core banking systems for mid-sized banks
 Challenge: create value-add analytic offering
   Core functionality perceived as commodity
   Analytics delivers unique value
   Customers value (but don’t understand) analytics

 Solution
   Identify key decisions
   Build rules-based, cross-channel decision services
   Automate analytic model creation and deployment
   Empower customers to “own” these decisions
                                     ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   39
Wrap Up
The one slide you need
 It is easy to have analytic success without
 creating business value
 It is especially easy to fail to deliver business
 value when focused on operational analytics
 Business rules and a business rules
 management system provide an ideal
 platform for analytics
 Decision Management ties analytics and
 business rules together in an effective
 framework


                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   41
Action Plan

              Identify your decisions
                 before analytics


              Adopt business rules to
               implement analytics


              Bring business, analytic
              and IT people together
                          ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   42
Thank you!




                 James Taylor, CEO
james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com
   www.decisionmangementsolutions.com

Deploying analytics with a rules based infrastructure pawcon sf 2011

  • 1.
    Deploying Analytics with a Rules-Based Infrastructure James Taylor, CEO
  • 2.
    Your presenter CEOof Decision Management Solutions Decision Management Solutions works with clients to improve their business by applying analytics and analytic technology to automate and improve decisions Spent the last 8 years developing the concept of Decision Management 20 years experience in all aspects of software including time in FICO, PeopleSoft R&D, Ernst & Young ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 2
  • 3.
    AGENDA 1 2 Zero value analytics are easy Operational analytics are hard(er) 3 Introducing business rules 4 5 6 Deploying Decision Wrap Up analytics with Management business rules
  • 4.
    The one slideyou need It is easy to have analytic success without creating business value It is especially easy to fail to deliver business value when focused on operational analytics Business rules and a business rules management system provide an ideal platform for analytics Decision Management ties analytics and business rules together in an effective framework ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 4
  • 5.
    Zero value analyticsare easy ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 5
  • 6.
    “ The operationwas a success… But the patient died ” ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 6
  • 7.
    “ Making informationmore readily available is important, but making better decisions based on information is what pays ” the bills. ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 7
  • 8.
    What is adecision? Data is gathered, considered, analyzed A choice or selection is made That results in a commitment to action ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 8
  • 9.
  • 10.
    Different kinds ofdecisions Type Strategy Tactics Operations Low Economic impact High ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 10
  • 11.
    Analytic power inoperational decisions How do I… prevent this customer from churning? convert this visitor? acquire this prospect? make this offer compelling to this person? identify this claim as fraudulent? correctly estimate the risk of this loan? It’s not about “aha” moments It’s about making better operational decisions ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 11
  • 12.
    Operational decisions aredifferent High Low High Volume Latency Variability Ensure Manage Personalize Compliance Risk Straight Unattended Self-Service Through Operation Processing After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall 200 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 12
  • 13.
    Insights must driveaction ? * ** * ** * * * * * * * * * ** * * ** * * * ** * * * * * * * * ** * * * * * * * ** * * * * ** * * * ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 13
  • 14.
    Time to deploymodels matters ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 14
  • 15.
    The three leggedstool Business ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 15
  • 16.
    Case: Varolii Personalized,automated consumer communication SaaS Challenge: apply advanced analytics Analyze past behavior of consumers Drive recommendations to their clients Actionable and automatic Solution Identify key decisions Analytically derive new rules based on past success Integrate client rules with analytic rules ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 16
  • 17.
  • 18.
    What are businessrules? “… statements of the actions you should take when certain business conditions are true.” ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 18
  • 19.
    Business rules drivedecisions Decision Regulations Policy History Experience Legacy Applications ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 19
  • 20.
    Unmanageable business rules publicclass Application { private Customer customers[]; private Customer goldCustomers[]; ... public void checkOrder() { for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) { Customer aCustomer = customers[i]; if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) { numGoldCustomers++; goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer; if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000) aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05); } } } ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 20
  • 21.
    Manageable business rules If customer is GoldCustomer and Home_Equity_Loan_Value is more than $100,000 then college_loan_discount = 0.5% If member has greater than 3 prescriptions and prescription’s renewal_date is less than 30 days in the future then set reminder=“email” If patient’s age is less than 18 and member’s coverage is “standard” and member’s number_of_claims does not exceed 4 then set patient’s coverage to “standard” Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 4.3 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 21
  • 22.
    A Business RulesManagement System Validation Testing and Verification Decision Deployment Production Rule Service Application Repository Rule Engine Design Rule Tools Management Applications Operational Database After Smart (Enough) Systems, Prentice Hall June 2007. Fig 6.6 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 22
  • 23.
    Case: Health Management Personalized health recommendations Challenge: multiple sources of tailoring Medical research Data mining of participant and outcome information Best practices in personal health Solution Replace Java code with JBoss Drools Implement best practices as decision tables Decision trees from analytic results, medical research Implement as additional decision tables ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 23
  • 24.
  • 25.
    Business rules andanalytics Broader set of data for business rules to act on Association rules as business rules Decision trees as business rules Predictive (risk) scorecards as business rules ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 25
  • 26.
    Integrate operational andanalytic Operational Systems Business Rules Predictive Analytics Analytic Systems ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 26
  • 27.
    Association rules speakfor themselves If basket contains Hats AND basket contains Socks THEN offer category is Active Accessories Screenshots courtesy of KXEN ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 27
  • 28.
    Deploying a decisiontree Screenshots courtesy of IBM ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 28
  • 29.
    Scorecards are apowerful tool Years Under Contract Reason Codes 1 0 Explaining results 2 5 Transparency More than 2 10 Number of Contract Changes It is really clear how a score card got its result 0 0 1 5 Compliance More than 1 10 Easy to enforce rules about Value Rating of Current Plan use of specific attributes Poor 0 Simplicity Good 10 Easy to use and explain Excellent 20 Easy to implement Score 30 Although not necessarily easy to build ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 29
  • 30.
    Deploying a scorecard Screenshotscourtesy of FICO™ ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 30
  • 31.
    The power ofbusiness rules Visible, business friendly analytic implementation Avoiding the mistrust of a “black box” Platform for all three groups to share All three legs can participate and collaborate Time to deploy A BRMS handles much of the complexity Support for defining actions Wrap into decisions ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 31
  • 32.
    Integration options Nativemodel execution Generate code or SQL Let the rules call the models when they need them Models as rules Manual or automatic import of models Create rules and rule artifacts that are executable Database scoring Traditional Separate services Let the rules call scoring services ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 32
  • 33.
    Cautions PMML variationsstill exist Make sure you understand limitations and issues Variable creation and PMML PMML 4.0 supports variable creation Most tools do not export variable definitions Matching data Operational and analytic data are not always the same From a flat analytic data set to object models Once a model is in rules it can be edited…. ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 33
  • 34.
    Case: Major medicalinsurer Dental Claims Processing Challenge: operationalize fraud models Legacy claims system uses fixed business logic Analytics models predict provider fraud Only currently applied after the fact – pay and chase Solution Add a rules-based decision service to review claims Add rules to define new variables Make analytics visible and reviewable by experts Easily add judgment as well as analytics ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 34
  • 35.
    From analytics todecision management
  • 36.
    Don’t start byfocusing on the data Better Analytic decision insight Derived information Available data ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 36
  • 37.
    Start by focusingon the decision Better decision Analytic insight Derived information Available data ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 37
  • 38.
    Decision Service DeploysAnalytics ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 38
  • 39.
    Case: Fiserv Corebanking systems for mid-sized banks Challenge: create value-add analytic offering Core functionality perceived as commodity Analytics delivers unique value Customers value (but don’t understand) analytics Solution Identify key decisions Build rules-based, cross-channel decision services Automate analytic model creation and deployment Empower customers to “own” these decisions ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 39
  • 40.
  • 41.
    The one slideyou need It is easy to have analytic success without creating business value It is especially easy to fail to deliver business value when focused on operational analytics Business rules and a business rules management system provide an ideal platform for analytics Decision Management ties analytics and business rules together in an effective framework ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 41
  • 42.
    Action Plan Identify your decisions before analytics Adopt business rules to implement analytics Bring business, analytic and IT people together ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 42
  • 43.
    Thank you! James Taylor, CEO james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com www.decisionmangementsolutions.com