The document discusses demographic transition theory and Saudi Arabia's current and future stages of transition. It outlines 5 stages of demographic transition, from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. Saudi Arabia is currently in stage 2, with transitional birth and declining death rates. By 2050, the document predicts Saudi Arabia will reach stage 5, with low and stable population growth and an aging population over 65 years old increasing from 5% to 25% of the total population. This will impact healthcare costs and education expenditures as the youth dependency ratio declines.

1. Demographic Transition
Theory
By Dr. Tasneem AL-Ahmari

2. Table of Content:
- Stages of Demographic transition.
- Factors Affecting Transition stages.
- KSA current & future transitional state.

3. Factors over the years

4. Stage (1)
(2) (3) (4) (5)
Factors
Birth rate
Many kids needed for farming
Many kids die early
Religious/ social encouragements
Improved medical care
+ Diet.
Fewer Kids wanted.
Improved women
status
Later marriage
Family planning
Death Rate
Disease & Famine
Poor med. knowledge
many kids die
improvements in food supply
+ Sanitation
Reduced epidemics
Declining fertility with degenerative
diseases
Reliable food supply
Good health care

7. as child mortality goes down, fertility rates also go down.
Mortality, Fertility Inter-relationship?

8. Rates over the years

9. Stage (1)
(2) (3) (4) (5)
Birth rate
Both high
Birth rate remain same Birth rate start decline
(second) Both
Low
Births less than
deaths
Death Rate Death rate decline (first)
Death rate keeps declining

10. Population size over the years

11. Stage (1)
(2) (3) (4) (5)
Population
size
No change
Expansive
(Rapid growth)
Initial increase in
population
Stable
(slow growth)
Continue increase
in population
Stable
(Zero growth)
(Z.P.G)
No change
Fall in
population

12. Terms over the years

13. Stage (1)
(2) (3) (4) (5)
Names
Pre-Industrial Transitional Industrial Post-Industrial
high stationary
Early expanding Late expanding
Low stationary
Declining
(negative)
Expansive
(Rapid growth)
Stable growth
(slow)
Constrictive
(narrow base)

14. Stages indications / Country reflections

15. Stage (1)
(2) (3) (4) (5)
Names
Pre-Industrial Transitional Industrial Post-Industrial
Developing country
Indicate richer
developed
country
Higher standards
of living &
education
Population
Aging
Population
Aging
Rapidly

16. Country Developed Developing
Longevity higher life expectancy lower life expectancy
Dependent Age group Elders dependency higher Youth dependency higher
Median age High Low
birth rate Low high
mortality rate Higher age
=
higher mortality rate
Despite good medical care
Young age
=
less mortality rate

19. Less developed
More developed

20. Variable / Stage Stage (1) Stage (2) Stage (3) Stage (4) Stage (5)
Dependency ratio High
(children)
High Less lesser Higher (aging)
Life expectancy Short Short Slightly longer Even Longer Quite Longer
(female)
2 3 4 5

21. Life expectancy = ( Longevity)
Good indicator of socio-economic development.
if the current age specific mortality rates persists

22. Health Adjusted Life expectancy (HALE)
No. of years a newborn can expect to live based on current rates of
( ill-health & mortality)

23. Median Age
The wider the base, the younger the population, the lower the median age.

24. Demographic Dividend
change in age structure of country result in economy status change.

26. KSA
Stage 1

27. At what stage KSA will be in 2020?

28. Stage 2

29. At what stage KSA will be in 2050?

30. Stage 2
Stage 5
Stage 5

31. 2050,unbalanced age-sex structure
ždue to the elevated immigration rates and
the persistent reliance on foreign labour.

32. 2050 -- Population Aging
http://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/EconomicResearch/WorkingPapers/population%20aging%20in%20saudi%20arabia.pdf

33. 2050 -- Causes of Population Aging
http://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/EconomicResearch/WorkingPapers/population%20aging%20in%20saudi%20arabia.pdf

34. 2015 SAMA study
http://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/EconomicResearch/WorkingPapers/population%20aging%20in%20saudi%20arabia.pdf

36. NOTE: Dependency Ratio does not take into account labor force participation rates because
they don't have their families who will depend on them.

37. Potential support ratio
● No. of young aged individuals to support 1 elder.
● ( the higher, the better)

38. Conclusion / Summary
Saudi Arabia is entering a new, unfamiliar era regarding the magnitude of its aging population
Health expenditures are expected to increase during 2015 and 2050 due to the increase in the elderly rate
from 5.4 percent (1.6 Million) to 25 percent (10 million)
but the public expenses on education will drop in the same period as the youth dependency ratio decreases from 41
percent to 24 percent.
Health expenditures and reduction in public expenses on education are expected to offset each other.
http://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/EconomicResearch/WorkingPapers/population%20aging%20in%20saudi%20arabia.pdf

39. Questions?