2. • Global Economic Trends
• Emerging Market Multinationals
• New Demography: aging, migration, obesity
• Dictatorship, Democracy, failed States
• Inequality and Poverty
• Sustainability
• Global Powers
• Uncertainty and Complexity
• Life expectancy
GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints New
Demography
4. Aging: First Time in History
Countries with inverted age pyramids
• Age composition of the population is transitioning to an older
structure in all regions of the world
• Older population (aged 60 years or over) is growing at an
accelerated rate
• Growth of the older population will take place in the less
developed regions: 8 out of 10 older persons will live in the less
developed regions by 2050
• The older population itself is ageing.
• Older persons will outnumber children by mid-century
New
Demography
5. Aging: First Time in History
Countries with inverted age pyramids
Less developed regions
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population Division
New
Demography
6. Aging: First Time in History
Countries with inverted age pyramids
More developed countries
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population Division
New
Demography
7. Aging Population by broad age group
1950-2050
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population Division
New
Demography
8. Benefits of Ageing
• People are living longer
• Older persons make important financial
contributions to their families
In the majority of more developed and developing countries, older persons are
net providers of financial transfers to their children and grandchildren. In some
developed countries such as Austria and the United States, older persons do
not become net receivers of private transfers even into the advanced older
ages. In countries such as Brazil, Costa Rica and Japan, older persons begin to
be net receivers of private transfers only after they are well into their seventies
or older. Some Asian countries such as Thailand and the Republic of Korea are
exceptions, as adults in their sixties begin to receive net transfers from their
children.
New
Demography
9. Benefits of Ageing
• Older persons contribute significantly
to the global economy. At the world level, the
proportion of women aged 65 years or over in the labour force, grew
from 10 per cent in 1990 to 13 per cent and is expected to reach 14 per
cent in 2020
• Older persons living independently. Forty per cent
of the world’s older population live independently, that is, either alone
or with the spouse only. Living independently is the dominant living
arrangement of older persons in the more developed regions, where
almost three quarters of older persons live independently. Almost half
of older women living independently live alone. By contrast, only a
minority of older men live alone.
New
Demography
10. Aging: Elder people
Proportion living independently (alone or with
spouse only) among persons aged 60 years or
over by sex: world and development regions
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population Division
New
Demography
11. Aging
Social Protection
• Fewer working-age adults are supporting an
increasing number of older persons. Working-age
adults provide the bulk of the contributions to finance social security programs
and familial transfers for the older population. The “old-age support ratio”, the
number of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, has
been falling in tandem with population ageing.
• In many countries, older persons lack
adequate social protection: higher poverty
incidence than the general population.
New
Demography
13. Migration
• Increase in international migrants: from 155 million
in 1990, to 214 million in 2010.
• 3 % of world’s population and counting internal
migrants over 10 %
• Immigrants increase productive capacity of the
economy and contribute to economic growth.
• Large increase in migrants moving from less to
more developed countries
•Attractiveness of the global South. New poles of
economic activity: China, Brazil, India.
New
Demography
14. Migration Challenges
• Population health, with focus on health spanning
the entire life course.
• ¼ of the world population do not have adequate
housing (UN-Habitat)
• Urbanization. Trend in the south
China 37 % urban
India 29 % “
60 megacities in the world by 2015
Only four in most advanced world: Tokio, Los Angeles, NY, Osaka-Kobe-Kioto
Africa 53% urban, expected by 2030
New
Demography
15. Migration Challenges
World Cities with over 1 million migrants
New
Demography
More info: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/gcmm.cfm
16. Migration Challenges
World Cities with over 25% foreign residents
New
Demography
More info: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/gcmm.cfm
17. GlobalChalleges&TurningPoints
Dramatic rise in last 10 years
• 300 M in 2005 to 1,1 Bn
• 1,5 Bn expected in 2015
• Increasing among lower status
groups
• Increasing among groups that
have not made the nutritional
transition to western diet
• British Heart Foundation: 2/3 of
British obese or overweighted
• Algeria, Botswana, South Africa,
Cuba, Haiti, Guatemala, Peru,
Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Syria,
Tunisia, North Korea, Mongolia
among most affected
Obesity
Photo source:
19. New Demography: aging, migration, obesity
How do these trends affect the
multinational firm you have chosen?
New
Demography
20. World Population and Products
New
Demography
Hans Rosling talk Global Population Growth Box by Box
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html
21. Three stories from India
New products with a shifting focus: value for the many. Remaking expensive products to adapt to
new mass markets
- Main points for discussion
- Apply ideas from the stories to your case
(multinational)
New international context: Aging, migration, obesity
How do we address value for many?
22. Three stories by R.A. Mashelkar from India
New products with a sifhting focus: value for the many. Remaking expensive products to adapt to
new mass markets
New international context: Aging, migration, obesity
How do we address value for many?
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/es/r_a_mashelkar_breakthrough_designs_for_ultra_low_cost_products.html
23. New Demography: aging, migration, obesity
• Discuss in group ideas for your case –
brought about from the presentation
• Discussion in the class
New
Demography
