Conformity [Asch, 1951, 1955, 1956] Is the test line equal in length to A, B, or C? Small (3 of 4) majorities are sufficient to elicit substantial conformity with a wrong result Any opposition can have a major effect; even a single dissenting individual can nullify the effect!
Asch Results: The Pressure to Conform 6% With 6 persons who say “A” and 1 person who says “B” 33% With 3 persons who say “A” 13% With 2 persons who say “A” 3% With 1 person who says “A” 1% Subject is alone Error rate Condition
Decision Making Dr. Joe O’Mahoney 2007 07906133649
Learning objectives To critique rational approaches of decision making To understand the benefits and drawbacks of group decision making To understand and apply the concept of groupthink To learn some examples of decision-making 07906133649
‘ Rational’ Decision Making Traditional Types Forcefield analysis Pareto diagam Cost / Benefit diagram Assumptions Rational Objective Omniscient 07906133649
Rational Decisions? Juries give more extreme punishments than individuals 75% people will kill others when told to do so by an authority figure You are ten times more likely to report an incident if you’re alone You are 30 times more likely to give an (incorrect) answer if your peers do Enron, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bay of Pigs, Iraq….. 07906133649
Logical Constraints Epistemology Can’t predict the (social) future Can’t prove Cause and Effect Luck? Decision based on  Organisation benefit? Stakeholder benefit? Individual benefit? 07906133649
Psychological Constraints Conformity Bias (Kelman, 1958) Risky Shift e.g. surgery (Stoner, 1961) Polarisation e.g. French vs. Americans (Moscovici, 1969)  Social Loafing e.g. Tug-of-war (Ingham, 1974; Latane, 1974) 07906133649
Social Constraints Cultural Norms Socialisation Obedience to Authority 07906133649
Group Think (Janis, 1972) Disasters Pearl Harbour,  Bay of Pigs,  Watergate,  Challenger Commonalities Under pressure to make decisions Isolation of group from outside High stress from external threats Feeling of invulnerability Social pressure to conform Stereotyping of dissenters Today Iraq? De Mendez shooting? 07906133649
Group Decision Making Advantages: Multiple views and types of expertise Social facilitation due to directed open discussion Brainstorming might lead to creative solutions Disadvantages: Often fails to equal the best individual solution Polarization effect (e.g., “risky shift” phenomenon) Social loafing (pool, elevator experiments) In general: No optimal decision rule exists for more than 2 options Importance of HOW process is managed Facilitators Turns in speaking Pros and cons 07906133649

Decision Making Lecture

  • 1.
    Conformity [Asch, 1951,1955, 1956] Is the test line equal in length to A, B, or C? Small (3 of 4) majorities are sufficient to elicit substantial conformity with a wrong result Any opposition can have a major effect; even a single dissenting individual can nullify the effect!
  • 2.
    Asch Results: ThePressure to Conform 6% With 6 persons who say “A” and 1 person who says “B” 33% With 3 persons who say “A” 13% With 2 persons who say “A” 3% With 1 person who says “A” 1% Subject is alone Error rate Condition
  • 3.
    Decision Making Dr.Joe O’Mahoney 2007 07906133649
  • 4.
    Learning objectives Tocritique rational approaches of decision making To understand the benefits and drawbacks of group decision making To understand and apply the concept of groupthink To learn some examples of decision-making 07906133649
  • 5.
    ‘ Rational’ DecisionMaking Traditional Types Forcefield analysis Pareto diagam Cost / Benefit diagram Assumptions Rational Objective Omniscient 07906133649
  • 6.
    Rational Decisions? Juriesgive more extreme punishments than individuals 75% people will kill others when told to do so by an authority figure You are ten times more likely to report an incident if you’re alone You are 30 times more likely to give an (incorrect) answer if your peers do Enron, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bay of Pigs, Iraq….. 07906133649
  • 7.
    Logical Constraints EpistemologyCan’t predict the (social) future Can’t prove Cause and Effect Luck? Decision based on Organisation benefit? Stakeholder benefit? Individual benefit? 07906133649
  • 8.
    Psychological Constraints ConformityBias (Kelman, 1958) Risky Shift e.g. surgery (Stoner, 1961) Polarisation e.g. French vs. Americans (Moscovici, 1969) Social Loafing e.g. Tug-of-war (Ingham, 1974; Latane, 1974) 07906133649
  • 9.
    Social Constraints CulturalNorms Socialisation Obedience to Authority 07906133649
  • 10.
    Group Think (Janis,1972) Disasters Pearl Harbour, Bay of Pigs, Watergate, Challenger Commonalities Under pressure to make decisions Isolation of group from outside High stress from external threats Feeling of invulnerability Social pressure to conform Stereotyping of dissenters Today Iraq? De Mendez shooting? 07906133649
  • 11.
    Group Decision MakingAdvantages: Multiple views and types of expertise Social facilitation due to directed open discussion Brainstorming might lead to creative solutions Disadvantages: Often fails to equal the best individual solution Polarization effect (e.g., “risky shift” phenomenon) Social loafing (pool, elevator experiments) In general: No optimal decision rule exists for more than 2 options Importance of HOW process is managed Facilitators Turns in speaking Pros and cons 07906133649