This presentation was made by Isabel Rial, IMF, at the 8th meeting of Senior Public-Private Partnerships and Infrastructure Officials held in Paris on 23-24 March 2015.

1. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.

2. 2
Outline
• Objectives
• Scope
• How does it work?
• Outcomes
• Next steps

3. Objectives
• Assess and quantify macro-fiscal implications of PPPs
• Provide a structured and guided process for collecting
PPP project data relevant to determine its fiscal impact
• Measure potential deviations of national PPP reporting
practices from international standards
• Potential users
– Ministries of finance, PPP units, country desk
economists
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3

4. Scope
• Excel-based project tool
o It can be used for projects of any size, but mainly for big projects
(or group of similar projects) with a significant macro implications
• Flexible accounting base
o Consistent with international standards, it estimates fiscal impact
on a cash and accrual basis (cash statement, income statement,
and balance sheet)
• Flexible coverage
o Central government, sub-nationals, SOEs, etc.
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4

5. 4. Additional support from government?
Guarantees, subsidies, tax amnesties, upfront payments, etc.
3. Who ultimately pays for the asset?
Government funded User-funded
2. Who controls the asset?
Public sector Private partner
1. Who initiates the project?
Central government, sub-nationals State-owned enterprises
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How does it work?

6. Outcomes
– Project cash flow for the whole project life-cycle
– Fiscal tables and charts (i.e., government cash
statement, income statement and balance sheet)
– Long-term impact on deficit and debt (i.e., debt
sustainability analysis with/without PPP projects)
– Sensitivity analysis
• Macro variables: GDP, exchange rate, inflation
• Project parameters: construction costs, funding
options, contingent liabilities
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7. 7
Projected Cash flows of the PPP Project Company
Impact of PPP Project on Headline Fiscal Indicators
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nonfinancial Assets
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Liabilities (Gross debt)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Overall Cash Balance
Cash surplus/deficit
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net Operating Banlance and Net Lending/Borrowing
(accrual)
Net Operating Balance (change in net worth)
Net lending/borrowing (accrual overall balance)
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Inflows-Availability payments Inflows-Purchase agreement Inflows-User payments for services Outflows investment related
P-FRAM
Project
summary
data

8. 8
S O d S l i l ff i
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Central Government Gross Debt with/without PPP Project
(In percent of GDP)
Gross debt PPP debt
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Accrual Balance Indicators
(In percent of GDP)
Overall balance (accrual)
Overall balance including PPP
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Cash Balance Indicators
(In percent of GDP)
Cash balance
Cash balance including PPP
P-FRAM
Macro-
fiscal
impact

9. 9
P-FRAM
Project
shocks
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Central Gov. Gross Debt including PPP and Construction
costs shock
(In percent of GDP)
Gross debt excluding PPPs (baseline)
Gross debt including PPPs
Gross debt with (+) shock on construction costs
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Central Gov. Overall Balance including PPPs and
Construction costs shock
(In percent of GDP)
Overall balance excluding PPPs (baseline)
Overall balance including PPPs
Overall balance with (+) inflation shock

10. Next steps
• Pilot of initial P-FRAM version underway
• To evaluate selected projects across various sectors
• To gather feedback from both strategic partners and
country authorities
• Strengthen collaboration with other international
organizations to coordinate technical assistance efforts in
PPP area
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