“Welcome to the latest The Market Landscape from Cox Automotive. We provide automotive industry professionals with unique intelligence, supported by invaluable insight and market sentiment from our customers, that goes beyond the headlines to uncover what’s driving the new and used car sectors from wholesale, retail and funding perspectives. We hope our holistic analysis arms you with the essential knowledge needed to navigate the fast-paced, ever-changing automotive market.” PHILIP NOTHARD Insight & Strategy Director

1. The Market Landscape
Date: September 2020
Philip Nothard – Insight & Strategy Director
© Copyright Cox Automotive UK Limited 2020

2. Presentation Overview
/ Current Market
• New Cars – UK
• Used Cars – UK
• New & Used – EU/International
/ US Recovery
/ Outlook

3. Current Market
New Cars - UK

4. New car market - UK
Registrations currently down -39.7% YTD and the SMMT forecast -30% down by end of 2020
• Lost 600k registrations during COVID-19 lockdown and YTD
• Production constraints for OEMs due to lost efficiencies and
supply chain issues
• SMMT reduce the 2020 full-year outlook to -30%, representing
more than £20 billion of lost sales
• Rental experience new consumer behaviours and vehicle usage
• Order take healthy across the network, but concerns remain
regarding supply
• OEMs focus on maximising 2020 recovery ahead of the threat of
tariffs
Registrations 2019 vs. 2020
161,013
81,969
458,054
161,064
183,724
223,421
157,198
92,573
149,279
79,594
254,684
4,321
20,247
145,377
174,887
87,226
-7.29%
-2.90%
-44.40%
-97.32%
-88.98%
-34.90%
11.30%
-5.80%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2019 2020 YoY % +/-
Source: SMMT

5. Current Market
Used Cars - UK

6. Wholesale activity
Caution increases on Q4, whilst values remain healthy with supply constraints
• Supply returns to mid-July volumes, an increase of 18.2 indexed points following a post-lockdown low
• Used car prices remain healthy following a rise of 3.9 indexed points, as supply aligns with demand
Poor conditioned used vehicle values continue to weaken, and values of 10-year+ are forecast to reduce
• Online auctions continue to offer customers buying efficiencies and multi-sale opportunities

7. Dealer Auction results
Pent-up demand drive sales return to pre-lockdown volumes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
April May June July August September
Running auctions by week
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
April May June July August September
Units sold by week
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

8. Dealer Auction results
Mid-September performance illustrates the demand for quality retail stock
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Sales Vendors Buyers
Monthly breakdown
April May June July August September

9. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2020 -0.2 0.6 1.1 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
2019 -1.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -2.3 -3.1 -2.1 -2.2 -1.0 0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -14.6
2018 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -3.6
2017 -1.6 -0.6 -0.0 -0.1 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 -1.2 -2.0 -7.5
2016 -1.8 -0.5 0.4 0.1 -1.4 -1.9 -1.0 -1.6 -0.7 -0.2 -1.3 -2.0 -8.4
2015 -2.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 -0.7 -2.2 -2.6 -8.8
2014 -0.7 -0.2 0.5 0.5 -1.7 -1.6 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -2.0 -3.1 -5.6
2013 -1.5 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -1.8 -1.9 -1.4 -1.6 -0.8 0.3 -1.1 -1.9 -8.7
2012 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -1.2 -1.8 -4.5
2011 1.0 1.4 0.6 -0.9 -4.6 -3.8 -2.9 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 -1.8 -12.4
2010 0.4 -1.0 0.9 0.7 -0.5 -3.9 -3.2 -3.0 -2.4 -0.0 -3.1 -1.5 -11.9
2009 -3.8 -0.2 3.3 6.8 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 -0.1 -3.0 -4.2 10.7
2008 -1.8 -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -2.5 -4.5 -4.1 -4.9 -3.3 -4.1 -3.5 -3.0 -23.9
A period of volatility ahead for values
COVID-19 causes an unseasonably strong used car market
• Values highest YTD since the 2009 financial recovery (2009 - +10.7% YTD)
• The unseasonal market continues – market proceeding with caution into Q4 and Q1 2021
• Pressure on low graded (4/5/U) vehicles as buyers become more selective and impact of lockdown public nervousness eases
Source: cap hpi
% CAP clean achievedBlack Book 3yr/60k movements

10. Current Market
New and Used – E.U./International

11. New & Used car market – E.U./International
European market facing -25% decline in sales in 2020
• Majority of the global automotive sector in the red
• Concerns increase for the U.K. new car market as we approach the Brexit deadline and lack of clarity
• The E.U. will potentially experience a decline of 3 million units in 2020, down from 12.8 million in 2019 to 9.6 million - -25%
Source: INDICATA Market Watch COVID-19 August 20Source: SMMT and Marklines
2,180,000
1,300,000
293,500
251,000
197,832
183,400
165,800
137,500
111,800
103,600
88,800
87,226
77,100
66,900
61,000
39,500
11.3%
-20.2%
-13.2%
-20.0%
-18.5%
-24.5%
-8.9%
-0.5%
-5.6%
-19.8%
-0.4%
-5.8%
-28.7%
-10.1%
-28.8%
-27.1%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
China
U.S.
M
exicoGerm
any
Japan
Brazil
Canada
Russia
Korea
France
Italy
UK
M
exico
SpainAustralia
Poland
YoY+/-%
August2020registrationvolume
Global New Car Registrations - August 2020
Aug-20 Volume Aug-20 +/- YoY
25.2%
12.2%
21.3%
64.6%
19.6% 18.1%
7.1% 6.4%
25.6%
19.0%
4.6%
-1.8%-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Portugal
Poland
Denm
ark
TurkeyNetherlands
Sw
eden
Austria
Germ
any
Italy
Belguim
France
UK
%changeYoY
Used Car Sales - August 2020
Country

12. U.S. Recovery
Consumer Sentiment improved again last week
Source: Cox Automotive Inc & Morning Consult
113.93
81.23
90.68
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
01/01/2020 01/02/2020 01/03/2020 01/04/2020 01/05/2020 01/06/2020 01/07/2020 01/08/2020 01/09/2020
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday (14th September)was down 20.0% since February 29

13. U.S. Recovery
Wholesale Used Prices now declining
Source: Cox Automotive Inc
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
MY 2017 Retail and Wholesale Price Indices (wk1=100)
2019 Retail Index 2020 Retail Index 2019 Wholesale Index 2020 Wholesale Index

14. U.S. Recovery
Used inventory down - actual inventory levels are down YoY for both retail and wholesale
Source: Cox Automotive Inc
0.0 Days
20.0 Days
40.0 Days
60.0 Days
80.0 Days
100.0 Days
120.0 Days
140.0 Days
160.0 Days
02/01/20
02/05/20
02/09/20
02/13/20
02/17/20
02/21/20
02/25/20
02/29/20
03/04/20
03/08/20
03/12/20
03/16/20
03/20/20
03/24/20
03/28/20
04/01/20
04/05/20
04/09/20
04/13/20
04/17/20
04/21/20
04/25/20
04/29/20
05/03/20
05/07/20
05/11/20
05/15/20
05/19/20
05/23/20
05/27/20
05/31/20
06/04/20
06/08/20
06/12/20
06/16/20
06/20/20
06/24/20
06/28/20
07/02/20
07/06/20
07/10/20
07/14/20
07/18/20
07/22/20
07/26/20
07/30/20
08/03/20
08/07/20
08/11/20
08/15/20
08/19/20
08/23/20
08/27/20
08/31/20
09/04/20
09/08/20
09/12/20
InventoryDays'Supply
Days Supply Wholesale Inventory and Retail Inventory
Rolling 7 Day Supply Retail Rolling 7 day Supply Wholesale

15. U.S. Recovery
COVID-19 impact
Coronavirus uncertainty amid mixed conditions, the daily new COVID-19 case trend continues to
fall and all key metrics are moving in the right direction
Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased by
0.9% in the first 15 days of September compared to August
Both retail and wholesale supply have increased modestly in recent weeks
The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of September was up 6%
year-over-year. Rental risk prices down 3% compared to August
Inventory, or lack thereof, continues to be the biggest issue for dealers
Overall, sales are softer in September—continuing what started in August

16. Outlook

17. 2,268,287
1,844,170
1,716,99
1,614,738
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2020 new car registrations (original forecast) 2020 new car registrations (V-shape)
2020 new car registrations (W-shape) 2020 new car registrations (U-shape)
New car volumes scenarios
U.K. 2020
• We initially forecast 2.27m new car registrations
• In the “W-shape” recovery we expect, down
-23.8%/1,716,999 m
• Concurs with SMMT forecast (-30.6%/1,603 m) issued
July 2020 actuals released, showing -39.7% YoY decline
• Actual recovery will be determined by:
• When and how can dealers trade again?
• Will there be sufficient consumer demand?
• How many vehicles will be supplied?
In all scenarios, year-to-date -39.7%
actuals
Source: Cox Automotive COVID-19 recovery forecast

18. Used car volume scenarios
U.K. 2020
• We initially forecast 7.99m used car transactions
• In the “W-shape” recovery we expect, down 17%
• No 3rd party views published and no actuals yet
published for 2020 Q3, showing post-lockdown recovery
• Less impact on used than new as not relying on
a production that was already constrained
• Actual recovery will be determined by:
• How can dealers trade in quarter 4?
• Will there be sufficient consumer demand post furlough?
• The challenges facing supply
7,990,742
6,691,180
6,601,212
6,326,328
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2020 used car transactions (original forecast) 2020 used car transactions (V-shape)
2020 used car transactions (W-shape) 2020 used car transactions (U-shape)
In all scenarios, assumed year-to-date -
28.7% (Q1/2)
Source: Cox Automotive COVID-19 recovery forecast

19. A challenging economic outlook
GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed
• A ‘no deal’ Brexit – a no free trade deal with Europe
• Rising unemployment from 3.9% to 9% - 695K since lockdown & 2020
forecast 3 m
• Annual house prices change from 2% to -3.1%
• Furlough costing U.K. government £14bn every month
• Crisis expected to cost the UK £300bn April 20/21
• Crisis-related packages will cost £130bn this year
Source: OECD/Statista September 2020
Projected change in GDP in 2020
Ø Increase taxes
Ø Decrease spending
Ø More borrowing

20. Retailers anticipating the emergence of new trends
Dealers are expecting a change in consumer buying behaviours
Health
ofem
ployees/custom
ers
Cash
Flow
Reducedsalesvolum
es
Enteringintoa
recession
Furtherlockdown
m
easures
Devaluationofstockassets
Abilityto
tradesuccessfully
with…Accessto
capital
Post lockdown, what are your greatest concerns for your business?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Car purchase
as an
alternative to
public
transport
Reduce
number of
cars owned
Preference for
used over
new
Downgrade
vehicle
Change offuel
type
Cautious
attitude
towards
finance
Opt for
subscription
vs ownership
Short-medium Medium-long term
Which of the following buyer behaviors do you believe will change as a
direct result of Covid-19?
• The expectation of consumer caution towards finance
• Accelerating consumer trends already in place pre-pandemic
• Move towards subscription vs ownership
• Attitude towards fuel type
• A move towards used cars in the short term; potential supply constraints and affordability causing negativity towards
new
• Avoidance of public transport in short to medium but returning in the long term
• Concerns towards cash flow, as access to capital lowest worry
Source: Cox Automotive Dealer Survey May 2020

21. Key trends
Green ‘scrappage’ agenda
Digitisation
New and Used supply constrained
Consumer demand uncertain
Shared mobility
• Without Government stimulus packages, new car outlook is bleak
• Pent up demand but fears of unemployment
• Business consolidation acceleratedWeaknesses exposed
• OEMs return to mobility as a priority through consolidation and collaboration
• Sector stimulus unrealistically focused on electric vehicle growth
• Acceleration in efficiencies and eCommerce (wholesale & retail)