This report provide details of auto sales data & its analysis for month of Sep 2019.

1. AUTO SALES DATA ANALYSIS SEP-2019

2. Automobile sector delivered a subdued volume performance across segments in Sep’19 but it was much
better if we compare them over August due to heavy discounts and beginning of the festive season like
Navratri, Onam and Ganesh Chaturthi with signs of a seasonal recovery in 2Ws and PVs but sustained
weakness in CVs. In PV on MoM basis sales of MM / TTMT improved by 6% /11% respectively and in
2W total sales of 16,45,614 units in Sep’19 while 20,56,899 units were sold in Sep’18. This implies a 12.4%
decline on YoY basis and 7.1% increase over sales in Aug’19 when sales stood at 4,25,664 units. In MHCV
sales for TTMT/ AL declined 69% / 67%YoY and further 5% / 11% MoM. Consumers delayed purchases,
pinning hopes on GST rate cut but with announcement of corporate tax reduction, possibility of GST rate cut
on autos was ruled out.
Auto Sales Sep’19..Weak Trends Continue..
Festive season will be the key..
Snapshot of volumes for Sep-19 (incl. exports)
136108
89,023
225131
91,292
44,187
36,914
81,101
48,198
81,926
60,298
142224
84,703
18,034
21,979
40,013
18,852
93,276
70,597
163873
87,795
17,799
25,764
43,563
47,866
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Cars Uvs+MPVs Total PVs 3Ws M&HCVs LCVs Total CVs Tractors
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

4. Passenger Vehicles Market share and Sep’19 Sales analysis:
PV volumes were weak for the 15th consecutive month due to sentimental negativity, high dealer
inventory, and credit crunch resulting in weak YoY growth. Most of the auto makers took temporary
shutdowns at their plants to prudently align production with sales. However, couple of new launches led
to a strong bounce back sequentially, as well as the YoY decline was not as bad as expected. With the
heavy discounts on offer, there has been an improvement seen in the footfalls which should hopefully
translate to retail sales as the festive season begins.
MSIL and Tata Motors' domestic passenger vehicle market share declined due to drop in sales of utility
vehicles in Apr-Aug 19, while Hyundai and M&M witnessed gain in the same period, as per data compiled
by industry body SIAM.
52.16%
6.79%
15.59%
6.89%
4.63%
5.48%
2.81%
1.14%
49.84%
5.41%
18.36%
8.08%
4.86%
4.64%
2.70%
1.61%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
MSIL Tata Motors Hyundai M&M Toyota Honda Ford Others
Passenger Vehicles Market share
Apr-Aug 2018 Apr-Aug 2019

5. 4-WHEELERS: Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)
In Units Sep 2018 Aug 2019 Sep 2019
Growth in
MoM%
Growth in
YoY%
Mini 34,971 10,123 20,085 98.4 -42.6
Compact 74,011 54,274 57,179 5.4 -22.7
Mid-size 6,246 1,596 1,715 7.5 -72.5
MUVs 21,639 18,522 21,526 16.2 -0.5
Vans 14,645 8,658 9,949 14.9 -32.1
LCV (Carry) 2,038 1,555 2,046 31.6 0.4
Sales to OEMs - 2,333 2,952 26.5 -
Total domestic sales 153,550 97,061 115,452 18.9 -24.8
Total exports 8,740 9,352 7,188 -23.1 -17.8
Total Sales 162,290 106,413 122,640 15.2 -24.4
 MSIL delivered highly subdued performance in Sep’19 with a decline of 24% YoY and (+15% MoM,
despite incremental volume of new S-Presso. Its UV volume remained flat on YoY basis and grew by
16% MoM due to launch of new XL6. Shifting of segment of new WagonR from Mini to Compact
impacted the segmental sales.
 MSIL shut down the PV manufacturing operations of Gurugram plant and Manesar plant in Haryana
for two days on September 7 and 9.
 New Products Launched – Alto 800, Baleno, WagonR (1.2-litre), Swift, Dzire, Ertiga and the recently
launched XL6 and S-Presso.

6.  M&M’s key volume contributor i.e. PV segment – comprising of UV, MPV and PCs – fell by 33% YoY
and (+6% MoM) owing to incremental volume from XUV300 and Marazzo.
 M&M continues to face strong competition in the UV segment (Venue by Hyundai, XL6 by Maruti), as
market continues to shift towards compact SUVs. Going forward, we expect volume growth in
tractors to slow down on a high base; additionally, it has been losing market share in the segment.
 New Products Launched – Ekuv100, XUV Aero, THAR 2020
Mahindra & Mahindra
19,885
1,526
21,223
630
1,064
13,037
470
13,855
475
354
13,858
475
17,998
466
408
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Utility vehicles Car+Vans LCV<3.5T LCV>3.5T MHCV
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
M&M Sales Sep-19
Growth
MoM%
Growth
YoY%
Utility
vehicles
6.3% -30.3%
Car+Vans 1.1% -68.9%
LCV<3.5T 29.9% -15.2%
LCV>3.5T
-1.9% -26%
MHCV 15.3% -61.7%

7. Tata Motors Sales
Growth
MoM%
Growth
YoY%
Domestic M&HCV
Trucks
-5 -68.7
Domestic I&LCV 11.9 -35.4
Domestic SCV 22 -31.9
Domestic Buses -4 -49.4
Domestic CVs 11 -47
Domestic PV 11 -56.1
 Tata Motors’ Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) retail sales for the quarter ending 30 September 2019 were
128,953 vehicles, slightly down (-0.7%) compared to the same period a year ago. These results reflect
an encouraging recovery of JLR retail sales in China (up 24.3%), with a third consecutive month of
double-digit sales growth for the company in the region. Sales were also up slightly in Europe (+0.9%),
offset by lower sales in the US (-1%), UK (-5.1%) and in overseas markets (-19.2%).
 Tata Motors’ M&HCV truck segment witnessed ~69% YoY fall to 5,082 units. Volumes remained
stressed, as operator profitability remained under pressure, even though freight-carrying capacity
increased. The addition in capacity further negatively exacerbated the freight demand-supply gap.
 It will also launch cars like Harrier 7-seater, Hornbill micro-SUV and electric cars in the coming
months.
Tata Motors16,239
5,465
19,846
4,271
45,821
18,429
5,340
3,152
11,082
2,250
21,824
7,316
5,082
3,528
13,510
2,159
24,279
8,097
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Domestic M&HCV
Trucks
Domestic I&LCV Domestic SCV Domestic Buses Domestic CVs Domestic PV
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

8. Ashok Leyland CV Sales
In Units MoM% YoY%
MHCV -25 -72
LCV -2 -26
Total -15 -60
 Movement of truck fleets got impacted by floods in several states, which, in turn, cut the arrival of
fruits and vegetables in the Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMCs). At the same time,
factory gates at most of the industrial clusters turned in 25 to 30% lesser goods.
 The company said on September 3 that its heavy-duty trucks range had been upgraded to meet BS-VI
emission norms, which come into force from April 1, 2020.
 In Sept, Ashok Leyland announced 16 non-working days in Ennore, five days at Hosur (Tamil Nadu)
unit, 10 days each in Alwar (Rajasthan) and Bhandara (Maharashtra) unit and 18 days in Pantnagar
(Uttarakhand) facilities. It announced the firm would observe non-working days in plants at various
locations for 2-15 days in October.
Ashok Leyland
4,035 3,816
7,851
14,232
5,141
19,373
5,349
3,882
9,231
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
CV (ex-DOST) SCV (DOST) Total
Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19

10. Two-Wheelers Sales Volume Analysis
For 2W sales, festive season will be the main factor to look at. Implementation of ABS and CBS on 2Ws has
increased the prices of vehicles and is also one of the main reasons why the 2W demand has softened. We
believe this to settle down soon. A good monsoon, encouraging festive season, low base of last year’s H2
may lift up the sector. Given the BSVI deadline of April 2020, we see a distinct possibility of higher
discounting being used to clear BSIV inventory in Q4, if sales fail to pick up during the festive season.
2W Sales Sep-19
Growth
MoM%
Growth
YoY%
12% -20%
2,056,866
1,472,766
1,645,615
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Total 2Ws
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

11. HEROMOTOCORP
2W Sales
Growth
MoM%
Growth
YoY%
13% -20%
 HMCL’s sales in September went down by 21% on YoY basis due to higher dealer level inventory
stemming from NBFC issues, lower retail demand, weaker sentiments, increase in ABS related costs,
rural distress and stifling competition. However, sequentially there has been strong improvement of
12.7% which may indicate a possible recovery. Good monsoons may also have contributed to strong
MoM sales.
 HMCL’s bike performance got impacted by Bajaj Auto’s aggressive pricing policy for the entry-level
bikes. The Company launched a slew of new products in scooter and motorcycle segments during past
6 months to regain lost market shares.
 The company’s Upcoming Launches: Scooter ZIR150, - Nov 2019; Dare125 & Duet-E. – Dec 2019
HERO MOTOCORP (HMCL)
769,138
543,406
612,204
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Total 2Ws
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

12. Bajaj Auto
2W Sales
MoM% YoY%
3.5% -21.9%
Bajaj Auto reported drop of 21.9% y-o-y led by the 35% drop witnessed in the domestic space as
discounts were at all-time high with BJAUT offering up to Rs. 7,200 savings on few models.
Exports declined 2% YoY, with motorcycles witnessing 1% YoY volume growth, mainly due to decline in
demand in key export markets of Africa (Nigeria). Its 2W volumes declined due to weak sentiment,
majorly due the high base of sales last year & high channel inventory in the domestic market.
Bajaj will launch the Urbanite e-scooter on October 16, rivaling the all-electric two-wheelers from Ather,
Okinawa and 22 Motors.
Bajaj Auto
430,939
325,300 336,730
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Motorcycle
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

13.  TVS MOTORS’ both, 2W sales were below expectations. No discounts are being offered in TVS
products. Peers such as both Honda and Hero are offering discounts in form of free accessories,
cashback, lower interest rates, lower down-payment, etc. Mopeds continued to drag overall
performance at TVS motors, continued their downward trend, registering double-digit decline.
 New Launches: TVS Apache RTR 310, TVS Apache RTR 200 4V, TVS Zeppelin, TVS Creon
 Dealer inventory stands at ~30 days. However, most TVS dealers have higher inventory days at 40-50.
TVS Motors
166,489
101,645
142,562
410,696
109,393
57,186
109,272
275,851
123,921
58,301
118,687
300,909
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Motorcycles Mopeds Scooters total
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19
TVS Motor Sales
Growth
MoM%
Growth
YoY%
Motorcycles 6.3% -30.3%
Mopeds 1.1% -68.9%
Scooters 29.9% -15.2%
total -1.9% -26%

14. Eicher Motors 2W
Sales
MoM % YoY %
13% -17%
Eicher Motors’ volumes fell YoY due to sharp price hike and slowdown in the segment, that have caused
volumes to remain under pressure. Considering the current dull market conditions, we expect short-term
push to volumes, spurred by the festive season, recent price cut of Rs 10,000 on the base model and
opening of 250 small stores. However, a sharp ~15% price hike to factor in regulatory issues (insurance,
ABS) have hurt RE’s volume growth, at a time when the company is increasingly aligned to industry
growth rates, especially given its relatively high market share. The 650 Twins model continue to do
extremely well in India as well as across international markets and has a waiting period of 3-4 months.
Eicher Motors
59,500
71,663
52,904
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Royal Enfield
Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19

16. 3W Sales
Growth
MoM%
Growth
YoY%
TVS MOTORS 2.7 13.0
M&M 39.3 7.9
BAJAJ AUTO 0.9 -8.1
Three Wheelers Sales Analysis
BAJAJAUTO’S total three wheeler sales went down by 8.1% YoY. In the domestic markets they
decreased by 0.9% yoy in the absence of any permits opening. Exports markets sales de-grew by
regulatory changes in market Egypt and issues in Sri Lanka led to this fall. These weaknesses more than
offset decent performances in Bangladesh and Nepal.
TVSMOTORS’s 3W sales increased by 13% yoy on strong exports performance.
15,003
7,487
65,305
87,795
13,282
5,373
71,070
89,725
14,604
6,940
64,726
86,270
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
TVS Motor M&M Bajaj Auto Total
Sep-19 Sep-18 Aug-19

18. Tractor Segment Sales Analysis
Tractor Sales MoM% YoY%
M&M 149.9% -1.5%
Escorts 169% 2.2%
 Tractor segment turned marginally positive after recording a decline for 7 consecutive months.
Inventory has increased by ~1-2 weeks by most auto players as a preparation for the upcoming festive
season. Driving the positive trend were increase in crop prices and strong monsoon.
 The dismal rural sentiments took a U-turn, at least in some of the states like Maharashtra and
Madhya Pradesh, with the above normal rainfall in the second half of the just concluded monsoon
season. Both manufacturers and dealers are sanguine that robust yield in key agrarian regions will
compensate for the crop damage happened in Bihar and Odisha due to floods.
37,581
10,617
14,817
4,035
37,011
10,855
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
M&M Escorts
Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19

19. Key Announcements :
 The Goa government announced to slash road tax by 50% on purchase of any type of new vehicles for a
period of three months, till December 31. As per state Transport Department data, the overall registration of
vehicles in Goa during the first four months of the current financial year declined by 15-17%.
 The government has modified electric vehicle charging station norms to let developers choose charging
technologies depending on the market demand thus ensuring that the public charging station (PCS) owners
have the freedom to install the chargers as per the market requirement.
 Tamil Nadu is working on feasibility studies across locations including Chennai, Coimbatore, Hosur and other
southern cities with an aim to develop electric vehicle (EV) and component factory clusters, according to a
top government official.
 German auto components major Bosch India has decided to shut production for 10 days per month in the
third quarter (October-December) of fiscal 2019-20 due to slowdown.
 Bajaj and KTM Industries AG have agreed on new electric vehicle alliance. The production will begin at
Bajaj’s production location in Pune and there are plans to launch a range of electric 2Ws by FY22.
 TVS Motor Company has had its application rejected for a patent on a new two-stroke internal combustion
engine. It had claimed this would pollute less, with better fuel efficiency. However, the application has been
rejected by the Indian Patent Office.
 Tata Motors owned Jaguar Land Rover will bring in half a dozen electrified vehicles in India starting 2020, as
the government of India pushes towards cleaner mobility solutions in the country with pollution on the rise.
The range of cleaner vehicles lined up for India is part of a new direction “Destination Zero” which aims
towards zero fatality, zero emission, zero congestion to develop a safe and a cleaner environment for the
future.

20. Although auto sales during Sep’19 have demonstrated MoM improvement and Oct’19 sales
are likely to follow a similar trend, it will be too early to call for a demand recovery. With
initial signs of a recovery in inquiries, a good festive season will help salvage 2HFY20 volumes
and clear BS4 inventory. BS6 transition will keep volumes volatile until 1HFY21. Also the
corporate rate tax cut can boost sentiments but would surface once the other dominating
factors are also in place. OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) are expected to pass on
some benefits of tax revision to the end consumers. This implies that the price correction in
coming months will to an extent address the demand side issues. There could be some hope
and positivity built in for revival of sales based on factors like increasing discounts, better
rural sentiment, lower interest rates, higher govt spending and a possible introduction of the
scrappage policy.
Our view

21. Disclaimer
Prepared By:
Research Associate: Nawanit Kumar Pandey
Email ID: nawanitpandey@adroitfinancial.com
Phone Number: 0120-4550300*270/388
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