“Welcome to the latest Market Insight Overview from Cox Automotive.  Every month, we provide automotive industry professionals with unique intelligence, supported by invaluable insight and market sentiment from our customers, that goes beyond the headlines to uncover what’s driving the new and used car sectors from wholesale, retail and funding perspectives. We hope our holistic analysis arms you with the essential knowledge needed to navigate the fast-paced, ever-changing automotive market.” PHILIP NOTHARD Customer Insight & Strategy Director - UK

1. Market Insight Overview
October 2019
P H I L I P N O T H A R D
C u s t o m e r I n s i g h t & S t r a t e g y D i r e c t o r - U K

2. Cox Automotive
Market Overview
“Welcome to the latest Market Insight Overview from Cox Automotive.
Every month, we provide automotive industry professionals with
unique intelligence, supported by invaluable insight and market
sentiment from our customers, that goes beyond the headlines to
uncover what’s driving the new and used car sectors from
wholesale, retail and funding perspectives. We hope our holistic
analysis arms you with the essential knowledge needed to
navigate the fast-paced, ever-changing automotive market.”
PHILIP NOTHARD
Customer Insight & Strategy Director - UK

3. Agenda
• Retail
• Wholesale
• Funding
• Outlook

4. RETAIL

5. Retail
UK new car registrations declined -6.7% in October, as consumer confidence remains weak. However, in
context due to both WLTP in 2018 and RDE in 2019, when comparing the 3 months Aug/Sept/Oct, the YoY
resulted in a -1.3% decline
45%
36% 29% 44% 35% 30%
30%
43%
32%
26% 31% 29%
44%
32% 28%
43%
32% 26% 43% 32% 26% 40% 30% 26%
40%
29% 23% 39% 32% 24%
38% 32% 38% 30%
51%
59% 64%
52% 61% 65%
65%
53%
63%
68% 64% 65%
52% 62%
66%
53%
62%
67%
52% 62%
66%
55% 62% 64%
55%
64% 66%
56%
60%
62%
57% 61% 57%
64%
4%
6% 7%
4% 4% 6%
6%
4%
5%
6%
6% 6%
4% 6%
7%
4%
7%
7%
6% 7% 8%
5%
8% 10%
5%
7% 12%
5% 8%
14%
5% 7% 6% 6%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2017 2018
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Registrationvolumes
New Registrations - fuel type % share
Diesel Petrol AFV

6. Retail
October UK Consumer Confidence declines two points to -14 for the third time this year, returning to the lack
of confidence observed in August
-5 -6 -6 -7 -5 -10 -12 -10 -9 -10 -12 -13 -9 -10 -7 -9 -7 -9 -10 -7 -9 -10 -13 -14 -14 -13 -13 -13 -10 -13 -11 -14 -12 -14
2.9%
-0.3%
8.4%
-19.8%
-8.5%
-4.8%
-9.3%
-6.4%
-9.3%
-4.6%-5.0%
-14.4%
-6.3%
-2.8%
-15.7%
10.4%
3.4%
-3.5%
1.2%
23.1%
-20.5%
-2.9%-3.0%
-5.5%
-1.6%
1.4%
-3.4%-4.1%-4.6%-4.9%-4.1%
-1.6%
1.3%
-6.7%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
(16)
(14)
(12)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
Jun-
17
Jul-
17
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct-
17
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jun-
18
Jul-
18
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Oct-
18
Nov-
18
Dec-
18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar-
19
Apr-
19
May-
19
Jun-
19
Jul-
19
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
Oct-
19
NewCarRegistrations(%YoY)
ConsumerConfidence
Consumer Confidence Index vs. New Vehicle Registrations
Consumer confidence index new vehicle registrations

7. Retail
The Modix monthly dealer sentiment survey* found that 55% of respondents believed demand was down YoY.
59% also reported that physical footfall was down, although 34% saw an increase in online activity
*State of the market dealer survey October ‘19
14%
34%
25%
32%
14%
17%
59%
24%
30%
15%
55%
45%
28%
41%
45%
53%
31%
38%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Physical Footfall activity compared to last year?
On-line activity compared to last year?
Retained margins compared to last year?
Finance penetration compared to last year?
Retail/consumer demand compared to last year?
Stock availability compared to last year?
Increased/Better Declined/Worse About the same

8. Supply pressures resulted in dealers* reporting a reduction in both overage and days in stock for used cars.
88% cited that overage stock was the same or lower than last year, while 89% reported that days in stock had
reduced or stayed the same
*State of the market dealer survey October ‘19
Retail
32%
45%
11%
11%
45%
30%
46%
44%
23%
25%
43%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New Cars - Consignment stock
New Cars - Overage
Used Cars - Days in stock
Used Cars - Overage
Increased Decreased About the same

9. Half of the dealers in the October Monthly Market Survey* cited negativity towards the economic condition
over the coming months as the UK approaches further uncertainty. Additionally, 68% reported that the supply
constraints will cause the sourcing of stock over the coming month to remain the same or become tougher
*State of the market dealer survey October ‘19
Retail
15%
50%
35%
What are your expectations for economic conditions over
the coming months?
(as a proxy for demand)
Improving Declining About the same
31%
34%
34%
What are your expectations for sourcing used vehicles
over the coming months?
(as a proxy for supply)
Improving Declining About the same

10. RETAIL
• The new car market has been fairly slow, and 45% of the dealers surveyed* reported an increase overage new car
stock
• Good quality used stock has been in short supply, and higher prices put pressure on margins. While larger dealer
groups have been able to offset this with smart use of part-exchange stock within the network, smaller independent
retailers will certainly have found margins a challenge in October
• Retailers reported that days in stock and the number of overage cars reduced in October
• The CAFE legislation measures fleet emissions and OEMs will likely be keen to offer favourable deals on higher
emission vehicles between now and the end of the year
• Reports indicate that OEMs are holding back lower emission vehicles until January, but hopefully, 2020 will see
improved availability of these popular vehicles
Summary
*State of the market dealer survey October ‘19

11. WHOLESALE

12. Wholesale
Average price
£6,199
+9.2% MoM
Average age
83months
-3.4% MoM
Average mileage
61,843
-4.0% MoM
Manheim reported MoM increase in its average sold price, up 9.2%, strong buyer demand across the month
meant that 88% of vehicles were sold first-time, up 1% MoM

13. Wholesale
Wholesale stock profiles in October show a decrease in both age and mileage following two-months of increases.
With the average age easing from 86.1 months to 83.2 and mileage dropping 2,591 miles
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
AverageMileage
AverageAge(months)
Wholesale ave. Age & Mileage
Ave. Age (mths) Ave. Mileage

14. Wholesale
Over half of dealers cited in Manheim’s October Monthly Market Survey* that consumer interest in electric
vehicles has increased in the previous 12-months whilst reminder indicated that demand has remained the same
or decreased
*State of the market dealer survey October ‘19
51%
43%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Increased
Stayed the same
Decreased
In the last twelve months, would you say consumer interest in electric vehicles has.....

15. Wholesale
Diesel
Wholesale Used Prices by Fuel Type
£7,577
-4.3% YoY
£4,795
2.7% YoY
£13,680
-25.7% YoY
£15,018
53.8% YoY*
*EV £/% movements relative to lower volumes observed vs. ICE vehicles
Diesel Hybrid Electric*Petrol
Data from Manheim reveals that average prices for diesel vehicles fell YoY in October, this reflects demand to
some extent, but is also influenced by a lower number of 1-3-year-old diesel vehicles in the market

16. Wholesale
The top 6 positions continue to remain static for the most vehicles sold in wholesale* for October, whilst the
Mercedes C Class switches with BMW 3 Series into 7th and Audi A3 is replaced by the Mercedes E Class in 9th
place
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ford
Fiesta
Ford
Focus
Vauxhall
Corsa
Vauxhall
Astra
Fiat
500
Volkswagen
Golf
BMW
3 Series
Mercedes-Benz
C Class
Nissan
Qashqai
*Manheim wholesale volumes all plates and mileages – October ‘19
Mercedes-Benz
E Class

17. WHOLESALE
Summary
• Younger stock (up to three years old) has been in short supply as long new-car lead-times and market uncertainty
saw lower fleet volumes hit the wholesale market
• Dealer-Auction.com also saw demand push prices up, and vehicles sold on the trade-to-trade online auction platform
achieved an average 99.4% of CAP clean across the month
• The wholesale market recorded increased volumes and good levels of demand as retailers competed for the most
desirable stock
• Dealer groups retaining higher levels of part-exchange stock to compensate for the downturn in new car sales
• With no over-supply, auctions performance resulted in strong prices and high conversion rates with few replacement
vehicles on the horizon

18. FUNDING

19. Funding
NextGear Capital, the leading provider of wholesale stock funding, also saw average age and mileage hold
relatively steady but reported an average price marginally ease by 0.8% MoM to £7,698
Oct ‘17
£7,077
Oct ‘18
£7,697
Oct ‘19
£7,698
£6,000
£6,500
£7,000
£7,500
£8,000
£8,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Cost of Unit (£)
2017 2018 2019

20. Funding
The average number of days in stock reduced to 61.6 (63.3 September 2019 and 59.2 October 2018),
continuing to reflect the increased age profile observed throughout 2019 compared to 2018 and 2017
Oct ‘17
57.5
Oct ‘18
59.2
Oct ‘19
61.6
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Holding Days
2017 2018 2019

21. Funding
The average age and mileage decreased marginally YoY in contrast to the data observed through the
wholesale sector. Mileage eased marginally to 69,889 for vehicles bought using the NextGear stock
funding plan. It also saw the average age of its funded units increase from 5.8 in 2018 to 6.2 years
October 2018
5.8 years
Ave. Age Funded
60,769
Ave. Mileage
October 2019
6.2 years
Ave. Age Funded
59,889
Ave. Mileage

22. OUTLOOK

23. Retail Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2019 the retail market
Dealers investing in PPC
advertising to drive sales
as consumers turn to
online for their next
vehicle
Increasing appetite for
Manufacturers and
Dealers to embrace
eCommerce
Demand grows for
advanced vehicle
imagery solutions to
drive online buyer
confidence

24. Wholesale Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2019 the wholesale market
Demand for retail-ready
stock will drive efficiencies in
vehicle services, assisted by
enhanced imagery
Buyers will expect increased
transparency to drive stock
confidence, leading to more
detailed vehicle descriptions
and assurance checks
An increasingly agnostic
approach to physical and
digital sales streams will
emerge to complement
changing buyer behaviours

25. Funding Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2019 the funding market
A strong appetite for growth
means cash flow remains a
priority for dealers
Ease and flexibility
remains key for dealers
An increased focus on
digital integration is helping
dealers to purchase stock
hassle free from a variety
of sources

26. PHILIP NOTHARD
Customer Insight & Strategy Director – UK
Philip.Nothard@CoxAuto.co.uk
@PhilipN_Auto
@coxautomotiveUK
THANK YOU
/PhilipNothard
/CoxAutomotiveUK
/philipnothard
/cox-automotive-uk