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Market Overview
February 2018
Philip Nothard - Head of External Relations
T H E V E H I C L E L I F E C Y C L E
Cox Automotive
Who we are?
AGENDA
• Retail
• Wholesale
• Funding
• Dealers
• Outlook
Retail
January 2018 continues with softening of diesel market share
45%
36%
44% 43% 45% 44% 43% 43%
40% 40% 39%
38% 38%
51%
59%
52% 53%
51% 52% 53% 52%
55% 55% 55% 57% 57%
4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan 17 Jan 18 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sept 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17
RegistrationVolume(k)
FuelShare(%) New Registrations - fuel type
Diesel Petrol AFV Total
Retail
Average advertised prices experienced a YoY increase of 13.4%
Jan ‘16
£11,324
Jan ‘17
£12,700
Jan ‘18
£14,403
£8,000
£9,000
£10,000
£11,000
£12,000
£13,000
£14,000
£15,000
£16,000
£17,000Averageadvertisedprice
Retail Used Car Price Performance
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
2016 2017 2018
Retail
Diesel retail volumes remain stable across majority of price bandings
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
£40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k
DieselVolumes
Advertised Price Banding
Retail Used Volumes – Diesel
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
Diesel 2017 Diesel 2018
Retail
Petrol retail volumes decline in <£10K price banding
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
£40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k
PetrolVolumes
Advertised Price Banding
Retail Used Volumes – Petrol
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
Petrol 2017 Petrol 2018
Retail
Electric vehicles experience an increase in £20 – 30K price banding as sector grows
0
50
100
150
200
250
£40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k
ElectricVehicleVolumes
Advertised Price Banding
Retail Used Volumes – EV
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
Electric 2017 Electric 2018
Retail
Alternative fuel vehicles experiences similar YoY increase as EV in the £10 – 30K price banding
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
£40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k
AlternativeFuelVehicleVolumes
Advertised Price Banding
Retail Used Volumes – AFV
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
AFV 2017 AFV 2018
Retail
Petrol and diesel activity remains stable YoY
Vehicle Views
Jan ’18 – 49% of total
Jan ‘17– 51% of total
Stock Volume
Jan ‘18 - 55% of total
Jan ‘17– 54% of total
Days in stock
Jan ‘18– 51 days
Jan ‘17– 48 days
Diesel Petrol Hybrid ElectricHybrid
Stock Volume
Jan ‘18 - 43% of total
Jan ‘17– 44% of total
Stock Volume
Jan ‘18 – 0.45% of total
Jan ‘17– 0.91% of total
Stock Volume
Jan ‘18 – 0.22% of total
Jan ‘17– 0.25% of total
Vehicle Views
Jan ‘18– 0.53% of total
Jan ‘17– 0.94% of total
Vehicle Views
Jan ‘18– 48% of total
Jan ‘17– 47% of total
Vehicle Views
Jan ‘18– 0.37% of total
Jan ‘17–0.43% of total
Days in stock
Jan ‘18– 48 days
Jan ‘17– 48 days
Days in stock
Jan ‘18– 50 days
Jan ‘17– 47 days
Days in stock
Jan ‘18– 43 days
Jan ‘17– 61 days
Retail
The data – Summary
Retail
• The average stock levels per dealership has increased YoY,
supporting an anticipated shift in consumer demand from new to
used
• Despite an rise in both percentage share and views for diesels
vehicles in Jan ‘18 vs. Jan ‘17 on Motors.co.uk, the average days in
stock has increased from 48 days to 51
• Average days in stock for diesels increased by 1 day YoY, whilst
petrol vehicles have remained YoY
• An increase in the average advertised price, reflects higher stock
profile in newer, greater valued vehicles
Wholesale
Average auction wholesale price increases for the 3rd consecutive January
Jan ‘16
£5,731
Jan ‘17
£6,294
Jan ‘18
£6,657
£4,000
£4,500
£5,000
£5,500
£6,000
£6,500
£7,000
£7,500
£8,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Averagewholesaleprice Auction Wholesale Price
2016 2017 2018
Wholesale
Wholesale volumes in <10K mileage increase in January 2018
0k-10k
10k-20k
20k-30k
30k-40k
40k-50k
50k-60k
60k-70k
70k-80k
80k-90k
90k-100k
100k-110k
110k-120k
120k-130k
130k-140k
140k-150k
150k+
Wholesale Volumes (mileage banding)
2016 2017 2018
Wholesale
Wholesale
The data – Summary
• Average sale prices online and physical auction lanes
remained steady (within 0.2% of December) at £6,677
• Average mileage across vehicles up 2.6% from 58,331
to 59,195
• Dealer Auction, reported a 13% increase in average
sales values and 11% increase in average sales
volumes, compared to December
• 15% YoY increase in diesels sold at online auction
during the month through Dealer Auction
Funding
Average cost per unit hit £7,242 which is in line with the 2017 trend
Jan ‘16
£7,369
Jan ‘17
£6,817
Jan ‘18
£7,242
£6,200
£6,400
£6,600
£6,800
£7,000
£7,200
£7,400
£7,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Averagecostofunit Average Cost of Unit (£)
2016 Ave. Cost of Unit 2017 Ave. Cost of Unit 2018 Ave. Cost of Unit
Funding
Average holding days for January 2018 increased to 66
Jan ‘16
63 days
Jan ‘'17
55 days
Jan ‘18
66 days
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Averageholdingdays
Average Holding Days
2016 Ave Holding Days 2017 Ave Holding Days 2018 Ave Holding Days
Stock
funding
Funding
Average age of vehicles funded increased1.6 years older but an average cost per unit rose by £425
January 2017
6.7 years
Ave. Age Funded
62,470
Ave. Mileage
January 2018
8.3 years
Ave. Age Funded
61,915
Ave. Mileage
Dealers
Retail activity remains positive in January 2018, with varied pressure on margins.
75%
81%
26%
36%
81%
49%
9%
4%
31%
13%
11%
33%
16%
15%
43%
51%
8%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Current Physical Footfall activity compared to last month?
Current On-line activity compared to last month?
Retained margins compared to last month?
Finance penetration compared to last month?
Retail/Consumer demand compared to last month?
Current stock availability compared to last month?
Increased/Better Decreased/Worse About the same
Dealers
Two thirds of dealers reported an increase in both overage and consigned new car stock
64%
60%
41%
46%
13%
19%
38%
36%
23%
21%
21%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New Cars - Consignment stock
New Cars - Overage
Used Cars - Days in stock
Used Cars - Overage
Increased Decreased About the same
Dealers
A quarter of dealers remain optimistic about the economic conditions.
24%
43%
33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Improving Declining About the same
%respondents What are your expectations for economic conditions over the
coming months (as a proxy for demand)?
Improving Declining About the same
Dealers
43% of dealers anticipate pressures on sourcing stock over the coming months.
23%
43%
34%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Improving Declining About the same
%respondents
What are your expectations for sourcing used vehicles over
the coming months (as a proxy for supply)?
Improving Declining About the same
Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the retail market
Increasing appetite for
vehicle insight from
dealers, to support both
buying and selling
Softening consumer
confidence to affect new
car sales, though used
car sales predicted to
increase
Retail
Increased consumer
demand to move buying
conversations from
“price” to “payment”
Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the wholesale market
An increase in the diversity
of stock acquisition through
physical and digital auctions
An increasing desire for
enhanced imagery and
'ready for retail’
inventory
Scale operations will drive
demand for refurb and
retail-ready through
efficiency and logistic costs
Wholesale
Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the funding market
Cash flow and digital
integration remain
priority for dealers in
the year ahead
No drop in vehicle
purchase prices in
an uncertain market
Dealers are looking for
complimentary sources
to ensure they sufficient
liquidity to buy the stock
they need
Funding
Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the Dealers market
Further consolidation
and international
investment
Challenging new car
market whilst
uncertainty remains
Improved analytical
understanding of an ever
diverse sector, to help find
and price stock better
Dealers
THANK YOU
Questions?

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Cox Automotive Market Overview - February 2018

  • 1. Market Overview February 2018 Philip Nothard - Head of External Relations
  • 2. T H E V E H I C L E L I F E C Y C L E Cox Automotive Who we are?
  • 3. AGENDA • Retail • Wholesale • Funding • Dealers • Outlook
  • 4.
  • 5. Retail January 2018 continues with softening of diesel market share 45% 36% 44% 43% 45% 44% 43% 43% 40% 40% 39% 38% 38% 51% 59% 52% 53% 51% 52% 53% 52% 55% 55% 55% 57% 57% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan 17 Jan 18 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sept 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 RegistrationVolume(k) FuelShare(%) New Registrations - fuel type Diesel Petrol AFV Total
  • 6. Retail Average advertised prices experienced a YoY increase of 13.4% Jan ‘16 £11,324 Jan ‘17 £12,700 Jan ‘18 £14,403 £8,000 £9,000 £10,000 £11,000 £12,000 £13,000 £14,000 £15,000 £16,000 £17,000Averageadvertisedprice Retail Used Car Price Performance (as listed on Motors.co.uk) 2016 2017 2018
  • 7. Retail Diesel retail volumes remain stable across majority of price bandings 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 £40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k DieselVolumes Advertised Price Banding Retail Used Volumes – Diesel (as listed on Motors.co.uk) Diesel 2017 Diesel 2018
  • 8. Retail Petrol retail volumes decline in <£10K price banding 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 £40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k PetrolVolumes Advertised Price Banding Retail Used Volumes – Petrol (as listed on Motors.co.uk) Petrol 2017 Petrol 2018
  • 9. Retail Electric vehicles experience an increase in £20 – 30K price banding as sector grows 0 50 100 150 200 250 £40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k ElectricVehicleVolumes Advertised Price Banding Retail Used Volumes – EV (as listed on Motors.co.uk) Electric 2017 Electric 2018
  • 10. Retail Alternative fuel vehicles experiences similar YoY increase as EV in the £10 – 30K price banding 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 £40-50K £30-40K £20-30K £10-20K £5-10K £0-5k AlternativeFuelVehicleVolumes Advertised Price Banding Retail Used Volumes – AFV (as listed on Motors.co.uk) AFV 2017 AFV 2018
  • 11. Retail Petrol and diesel activity remains stable YoY Vehicle Views Jan ’18 – 49% of total Jan ‘17– 51% of total Stock Volume Jan ‘18 - 55% of total Jan ‘17– 54% of total Days in stock Jan ‘18– 51 days Jan ‘17– 48 days Diesel Petrol Hybrid ElectricHybrid Stock Volume Jan ‘18 - 43% of total Jan ‘17– 44% of total Stock Volume Jan ‘18 – 0.45% of total Jan ‘17– 0.91% of total Stock Volume Jan ‘18 – 0.22% of total Jan ‘17– 0.25% of total Vehicle Views Jan ‘18– 0.53% of total Jan ‘17– 0.94% of total Vehicle Views Jan ‘18– 48% of total Jan ‘17– 47% of total Vehicle Views Jan ‘18– 0.37% of total Jan ‘17–0.43% of total Days in stock Jan ‘18– 48 days Jan ‘17– 48 days Days in stock Jan ‘18– 50 days Jan ‘17– 47 days Days in stock Jan ‘18– 43 days Jan ‘17– 61 days
  • 12. Retail The data – Summary Retail • The average stock levels per dealership has increased YoY, supporting an anticipated shift in consumer demand from new to used • Despite an rise in both percentage share and views for diesels vehicles in Jan ‘18 vs. Jan ‘17 on Motors.co.uk, the average days in stock has increased from 48 days to 51 • Average days in stock for diesels increased by 1 day YoY, whilst petrol vehicles have remained YoY • An increase in the average advertised price, reflects higher stock profile in newer, greater valued vehicles
  • 13.
  • 14. Wholesale Average auction wholesale price increases for the 3rd consecutive January Jan ‘16 £5,731 Jan ‘17 £6,294 Jan ‘18 £6,657 £4,000 £4,500 £5,000 £5,500 £6,000 £6,500 £7,000 £7,500 £8,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averagewholesaleprice Auction Wholesale Price 2016 2017 2018
  • 15. Wholesale Wholesale volumes in <10K mileage increase in January 2018 0k-10k 10k-20k 20k-30k 30k-40k 40k-50k 50k-60k 60k-70k 70k-80k 80k-90k 90k-100k 100k-110k 110k-120k 120k-130k 130k-140k 140k-150k 150k+ Wholesale Volumes (mileage banding) 2016 2017 2018
  • 16. Wholesale Wholesale The data – Summary • Average sale prices online and physical auction lanes remained steady (within 0.2% of December) at £6,677 • Average mileage across vehicles up 2.6% from 58,331 to 59,195 • Dealer Auction, reported a 13% increase in average sales values and 11% increase in average sales volumes, compared to December • 15% YoY increase in diesels sold at online auction during the month through Dealer Auction
  • 17.
  • 18. Funding Average cost per unit hit £7,242 which is in line with the 2017 trend Jan ‘16 £7,369 Jan ‘17 £6,817 Jan ‘18 £7,242 £6,200 £6,400 £6,600 £6,800 £7,000 £7,200 £7,400 £7,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averagecostofunit Average Cost of Unit (£) 2016 Ave. Cost of Unit 2017 Ave. Cost of Unit 2018 Ave. Cost of Unit
  • 19. Funding Average holding days for January 2018 increased to 66 Jan ‘16 63 days Jan ‘'17 55 days Jan ‘18 66 days 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averageholdingdays Average Holding Days 2016 Ave Holding Days 2017 Ave Holding Days 2018 Ave Holding Days
  • 20. Stock funding Funding Average age of vehicles funded increased1.6 years older but an average cost per unit rose by £425 January 2017 6.7 years Ave. Age Funded 62,470 Ave. Mileage January 2018 8.3 years Ave. Age Funded 61,915 Ave. Mileage
  • 21.
  • 22. Dealers Retail activity remains positive in January 2018, with varied pressure on margins. 75% 81% 26% 36% 81% 49% 9% 4% 31% 13% 11% 33% 16% 15% 43% 51% 8% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Current Physical Footfall activity compared to last month? Current On-line activity compared to last month? Retained margins compared to last month? Finance penetration compared to last month? Retail/Consumer demand compared to last month? Current stock availability compared to last month? Increased/Better Decreased/Worse About the same
  • 23. Dealers Two thirds of dealers reported an increase in both overage and consigned new car stock 64% 60% 41% 46% 13% 19% 38% 36% 23% 21% 21% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New Cars - Consignment stock New Cars - Overage Used Cars - Days in stock Used Cars - Overage Increased Decreased About the same
  • 24. Dealers A quarter of dealers remain optimistic about the economic conditions. 24% 43% 33% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Improving Declining About the same %respondents What are your expectations for economic conditions over the coming months (as a proxy for demand)? Improving Declining About the same
  • 25. Dealers 43% of dealers anticipate pressures on sourcing stock over the coming months. 23% 43% 34% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Improving Declining About the same %respondents What are your expectations for sourcing used vehicles over the coming months (as a proxy for supply)? Improving Declining About the same
  • 26.
  • 27. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the retail market Increasing appetite for vehicle insight from dealers, to support both buying and selling Softening consumer confidence to affect new car sales, though used car sales predicted to increase Retail Increased consumer demand to move buying conversations from “price” to “payment”
  • 28. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the wholesale market An increase in the diversity of stock acquisition through physical and digital auctions An increasing desire for enhanced imagery and 'ready for retail’ inventory Scale operations will drive demand for refurb and retail-ready through efficiency and logistic costs Wholesale
  • 29. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the funding market Cash flow and digital integration remain priority for dealers in the year ahead No drop in vehicle purchase prices in an uncertain market Dealers are looking for complimentary sources to ensure they sufficient liquidity to buy the stock they need Funding
  • 30. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the Dealers market Further consolidation and international investment Challenging new car market whilst uncertainty remains Improved analytical understanding of an ever diverse sector, to help find and price stock better Dealers