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Webinar: COVID-19 risk and food value chains (presentation 3)

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Webinar: COVID-19 risk and food value chains (presentation 3)

  1. 1. PHOTO COVID-19 Impacts on Fish Value Chains in Nigeria Ben Belton, Saweda-Liverpool Tasie, Oyinkan Tasie, Iredele Ogunbayo, Ajibola Olaniyi, Thomas Reardon.
  2. 2. Survey overview • Survey 1: WorldFish (FISH CRP): 789 fish supply chain actors in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Myanmar, Timor-Leste, and Nigeria (95 respondents; mainly in SW) • Survey 2: WorldFish & MSU survey (PIM): 555 fish and poultry supply chain actors, 8 geopolitical zones (national coverage). • Objectives: Tracking quantities produced & traded; prices; access to inputs & buyers, transport, labor; challenges; assistance • Method: Interviews by phone, recall for Feb-April (in May), then monthly until December 2020
  3. 3. Short term effects of lockdown; longer-term impacts on demand • Effect of lockdown on attempted transactions and ability to access transport temporary (3-4 months) • Impacts on input access longer (5+ months) • Impact on demand is bigger and longer lasting than impact on supply: 6+ months – no full recovery. % of respondents attempting a transaction, and able to access transport, inputs & buyers on all occasions (WorldFish survey) 0 20 40 60 80 100 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Attempted to buy/sell Able to access transport Able to access inputs Able to find buyers
  4. 4. Casual employment recovering after initial decline % of respondents employing daily laborers, by gender of laborer (WorldFish survey) • Employment of casual workers depressed for 6 months – recovering February levels in September • Dip in employment reflects constraints on: • Supply side (Laborers unable to get to work in April/May due to lockdown/transport access) • Demand side (Reduced sales, suspended operations, cost savings) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Women Men
  5. 5. Challenges evolving over time: lockdown & low demand → cash flow & input shortages 0 500 1000 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Others Boko Haram/Security isses Weather/Environment/Seasonality Unable to access transport/High transport cost Lockdown/Movement restrictions Cash flow problems/Lack of finance Low demand/Low sales price Input shortage/High input price Number of challenges reported by respondents, by type of challenge and month (WorldFish & MSU survey)
  6. 6. Evolving challenges: March/April – lockdown, transport, movement restrictions, access to inputs • “The major customers I produce for are in Lagos. The shutdown of businesses therefore affected my business very negatively as there was no demand for broilers from my customers.” • “We lost over 50 birds due to the inability of my staff to go and take care of them as required because of the lockdown.” • “Getting feed at the right time was a challenge, I usually go through exchanges and explanations with the security personnel.” • “The police keep extorting money from drivers whenever there are state imposed movement restrictions, even when drivers have the permit for essential services.” Quotes from respondents to WorldFish & MSU survey
  7. 7. Evolving challenges: August/September – Low demand, cashflow problems, rising prices • “Things haven't normalized following the pandemic, so people aren't buying eggs so much. I had to begin sales of other commodities like garri.” • “Sales were not too good, and fish was expensive. I had to seek cheaper sources of supply and scout for more customers.” • “Increased costs and difficulty in sourcing feeds as companies are also finding it difficult to produce” • “The customers had to be convinced to purchase [feed] as most customers quit farming, and the ones still in business were contemplating quitting too.” • “I had to start downsizing as there wasn’t enough funds to offset the cost of running the business at full scale.” Quotes from respondents to WorldFish & MSU survey
  8. 8. Downward trend in number of operational businesses Share of businesses operating by State and month (WorldFish & MSU survey) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Kaduna Rivers Kebbi Niger Borno Oyo Ebonyi Abuja Linear (All)
  9. 9. Very little assistance received • Very little assistance for ANY respondents (<2% in April) • Almost all assistance informal (family/friends) N & % of respondents receiving assistance (WorldFish & MSU survey) FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP % receiving any assistance 0.5 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 Family/friends 2 4 7 5 1 2 2 2 NGO 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 Govt. 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 Community 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Association 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Other 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
  10. 10. Conclusions • Business operations recovered from the initial shock of lockdown by June/July, as logistics & markets began working again • Challenges faced by businesses are evolving • Demand has remained slow – transmitted upstream along supply chain • Businesses face cashflow problems and rising costs/input shortages • Lagged effects of initial shock – e.g. lower maize production high inflation, currency devaluation, contributing to higher feed prices. • Increasing numbers of business closures over time • Government safety net was not widely implemented - almost no formal assistance received.
  11. 11. Recommendations • Safeguard ability to access transport and ensure movement of merchandise by designating fish and supplies of fish production inputs and logistics services as ‘essentials’. • Keeping markets open and operating safely is key to safeguarding demand and keeping the supply chain functioning adequately. • Provide financial support (e.g. cheap loans, targeted subsidies, reduced fees and rebates on bills) to actors of supply chain who have lost revenues to shore up cashflow and continue business activities. • Rollout social protection to support the vulnerable and stimulate demand. • Raise awareness of how to use digital channels to market and deliver fish products and production inputs.
  12. 12. Thank you Please visit https://www.worldfishcenter.org/pages/covid-19/ for more information
  13. 13. More info and recording of this webinar: https://bit.ly/COVID-FVC

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