1.
Tracking Key CAADP Indicators and
Implementation Processes
Tsitsi Makombe (Presenter), Wondwosen Tefera, and John M. Ulimwengu
Director of External Relations, AKADEMIYA2063
November 5, 2020

2.
What is Being Tracked?
• ReSAKSS provides data & knowledge
products to inform CAADP processes
• Tracks progress on > 30 CAADP indicators
using CAADP Results Framework (RF)
(2015-2025) [38 indicators]
oReSAKSS website: www.resakss.org
oFlagship Annual Trends and Outlook
Report (ATOR)
• Chapter 16 in 2020 ATOR discusses
progress on 25/38 CAADP RF indicators
• 5 quantitative indicators presented today
CAADP Results Framework: 2015-2025

3.
Progress in CAADP Implementation Processes
• Operationalizing Malabo Declaration & CAADP RF requires NAIPs aligned with goals &
targets of the Declaration Malabo Domestication Event
• ReSAKSS analysis (with local experts) informs design of NAIPs: SAP, MGM, PPO reports
• Agriculture JSR assessments completed in 21 countries & 2 RECs (ECOWAS & EAC)
• Two CAADP Biennial Reviews (BRs) held in 2017 and 2019
Region Malabo
Domestication
Malabo
Status
Assessment
Profile (SAP)
Malabo
Goals &
Milestones
(MGM)
Malabo
Compliant
NAIP
JSR
Assessment
Completed
1st
BR 2nd
BR
Africa 25 31 25 21 21 47 49
Central 2 2 2 1 9 8
Eastern 5 6 1 4 6 10 13
Northern 4 3
Southern 9 8 7 2 6 10 10
Western 9 15 15 15 8 14 15

4.
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Government Agricultural Expenditures (GAE)
• Africa’s GAE more than doubled btwn 1995–2003
and 2014–2019, from $9.6 billion to $19.6 billion
• However, growth in GAE has slowed, 3 % in 2014-
2019 compared with 6.3 % in 2003-2008
• Africa’s share of GAE in total government
expenditure is below the CAADP 10 % target (3.3 %
in 2014-2019)
• Seven countries met or surpassed the 10 % target in
2014–2019
0
4
8
12
16
20
Ethiopia
Malawi
SierraLeone
Senegal
Mali
Liberia
BurkinaFaso
Niger
Benin
Zambia
Lesotho
Tunisia
Mozambique
Rwanda
Cameroon
CapeVerde
Togo
Morocco
Zimbabwe
Gambia
S.Tome&Principe
Madagascar
Tanzania
Cent.Af.Rep.
Namibia
Swaziland
Uganda
Côted'Ivoire
Guinea
Nigeria
Kenya
Mauritius
Guinea-Bissau
Chad
Seychelles
Egypt
Burundi
Botswana
Congo,Rep.
Gabon
SouthAfrica
Mauritania
Sudan
Ghana
Angola
SouthSudan
Comoros
EquatorialGuinea
Algeria
Congo,Dem.Rep.
Djibouti
Eritrea
Annualaveragelevel(%)
Annual avg. level (2014-2019) CAADP 10% target
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Africa Central
Africa
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
Southern
Africa
Western
Africa
Annualaveragechange(%)
GAE Growth (%)
Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019)

5.
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Agricultural Growth
• Africa’s agriculture value added growth remained
below 6 percent CAADP target, grew at 3.2 % in 2014-
2019
• Higher growth in Central Africa of 4.2 % in 2014-2019
• Ten countries met or surpassed the 6 percent target in
2014–2019
• Gabon, Guinea, Kenya growth of > 10 %
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Africa Central
Africa
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
Southern
Africa
Western
Africa
Annualaveragechange(%)
Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019) CAADP 6% target
-12
-6
0
6
12
Guinea
Gabon
Kenya
Guinea-Bissau
Niger
Zimbabwe
Senegal
Rwanda
Benin
Congo,Dem.Rep.
Ethiopia
Mali
Cameroon
Mozambique
Algeria
Lesotho
Tunisia
Egypt
Tanzania
EquatorialGuinea
Seychelles
Cent.Af.Rep.
Uganda
Togo
Mauritania
Congo,Rep.
BurkinaFaso
S.Tome&Principe
Comoros
Nigeria
Morocco
Côted'Ivoire
SierraLeone
Ghana
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Botswana
Chad
Mauritius
Swaziland
Namibia
SouthAfrica
Gambia
Sudan
Burundi
Angola
CapeVerde
Zambia
AnnualAverageChange(%)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019) CAADP 6% target

6.
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Undernourishment
• Prevalence of undernourishment was
on a declining trend for many years
• From 20.6 % in 2003-08 to 18.6 in
2017
• However, since 2015, prevalence
started to increase across Africa &
many country groupings (esp. Central
& Western Africa)
• Africa’s, number of undernourished
has steadily increased since 2009
• From 159.8 million in 2009 to 205.7
million in 2017 ( up 28.7 %)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Undernourishedpeople(in
millions)
Prevalenceofundernourishment
(%)
Africa
Prevalence of undernourishment (%) Undernourished people (in millions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Prevalenceofundernourishment(%)
Eastern Africa Central Africa Southern Africa
Africa Western Africa Northern Africa

7.
Progress in CAADP Indicators: Child Malnutrition
• Africa’s prevalence of child stunting,
underweight, & wasting has been on a
declining trend over the last two decades
• Despite progress, prevalence of stunting
is considered High (esp. Central Africa:
37 %)
• Africa’s prevalence of child underweight
(at 16.4 % ) & wasting (at 7.3 %) is
Medium in 2014-2019
• Child underweight High in Central Africa and
Eastern Africa (>20 %)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Prevalenceofchildmalnutrition(%)
Africa
Stunting Underweight Wasting
Indicator
< 20% Low prevalence
20-29% Medium prevalence
30-39% High prevalence
=> 40% Very high prevalence
< 10% Low prevalence
10-19% Medium prevalence
20-29% High prevalence
=> 30% Very high prevalence
< 5% Low prevalence
5-9% Medium prevalence
10-14% High prevalence
=>15% Very high prevalence
SEVERITY OF MALNUTRITION BY PREVALENCE RANGES
Prevalence cut-off values
Stunting
Underweight
Wasting
Source: WHO (2020).

8.
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Poverty Headcount Ratio ($1.90/Day)
• Africa has consistently reduced the
incidence of poverty over the last two
decades
• From 45.6 % in 1995-2003 to 35.8 % in 2014-
2019
• However, number of people living on less
than $1.90/day has steadily risen since
2000s,
• From 298 million in 2002 to 337 million in
2019
• COVID-19 could drive up to 26-40 million
people into extreme poverty in SSA in
2020-2021, erasing years of progress in
fighting poverty (World Bank, 2020)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Numberofporpeople(millions)
Proportionofpoorpeople(%)
Proportion of poor people (%) Number of poor people (millions)

9.
Conclusions & Implications
• Steady progress in CAADP implementation
• No. of poor people, both proportion & no. of undernourished are increasing
• Slowing growth in GAE expenditures
• Only 7 countries met CAADP 10 % budget target; 10 met CAADP 6 % growth target
• Need to consolidate progress & urgently tackle regressing areas
• Raise level of agricultural investments & productivity
• Improve market access & trade infrastructure
• Keep borders open to promote cross-border trade in food and ag inputs
• Invest in better health & food security outcomes; support social protection &
resilience building initiatives
• Hasten efforts to formulate & implement evidence-based NAIPs

10.
THANK YOU!

11.
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
Intra-African Agricultural Trade
• Remarkable growth in intra-African agricultural
trade
• Intra-African agricultural exports nearly tripled
btwn 1995-2003 and 2014-2018 [$5.2 billion to
$15.3 billion]
• Southern Africa dominates intra-African
agricultural exports and imports at 52 % and 44
% in 2014-2018, respectively
Central
Africa
1%
Eastern
Africa
20%
Northern
Africa
14%
Southern
Africa
52%
Western
Africa
13%
Exports (2014-2018)
Central
Africa
9%
Eastern
Africa
17%
Northern
Africa
14%
Southern
Africa
44%
Western
Africa
16%
Imports (2014-2018)

12.
Progress in CAADP Indicators:
GDP Per Capita
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Africa
CentralAfrica
EasternAfrica
NorthernAfrica
SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
AnnualAverageChange(%)
GDP Per Capita Growth
Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014)
Annual avg. change (2014-2019)
• GDP per capita has declined since 2008
• Africa’s GDP per capita grew by 3.3 % in
2003-2008, 1.2 % in 2008-2014; 0.2 % in
2014-2019
• Decline linked to the recent global
economic slowdown & lower commodity
prices, esp. in 2016
• Growth expected to contract further in
2020 due to COVID-19