The document is a statistical release from Statistics South Africa providing data on South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2020. Key points:
- GDP increased at an annualized rate of 66.1% in Q3 2020 as lockdown restrictions eased.
- The manufacturing, mining, and trade industries had the largest positive contributions to GDP growth.
- Household consumption expenditure increased at 69.5% and contributed most to growth, driven by spending on transport, alcohol, food and clothing.
- Exports increased 201.4% while imports decreased 1.6%, contributing positively to GDP growth.
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STATISTICAL RELEASE
P0441
Gross domestic product
Third quarter 2020
Embargoed until:
8 December 2020
11:30
A short note explaining different measures of economic growth is provided on page 8
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2. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 1 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
Contents
GDP increased at an annualised rate of 66,1%........................................................................................................2
Gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: Third quarter of 2020.............................................................3
Expenditure on gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: Third quarter of 2020 ..................................5
Note on different measures of gross domestic product estimates and growth rates.........................................8
Table 1 – Industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised)............................10
Table 2 – Growth rates in industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) 11
Table 3 – Contributions to growth in GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) ..........................12
Table 4 – Industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices)...........................................................................................12
Table 5 – Growth rates in industry value added and GDP (constant 2010 prices)................................................................14
Table 6 – Expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised).............................................14
Table 7 – Growth rates in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) ..................16
Table 8 – Contributions to growth in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices, seasonally adjusted and annualised) 17
Table 9 – Expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices)............................................................................................................18
Table 10 – Growth rates in expenditure on GDP (constant 2010 prices) ...............................................................................19
EXPLANATORY NOTES ...........................................................................................................................................20
TECHNICAL ENQUIRIES ..........................................................................................................................................20
GENERAL INFORMATION........................................................................................................................................21
3. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 2 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
GDP increased at an annualised rate of 66,1%1
Real gross domestic product (measured by production)
increased at an annualised rate of 66,1% in the third
quarter of 2020, largely as a result of the easing of
COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.
Figure 1 – Growth in GDP (%)
All industries recorded positive growth between the
second and third quarters of 2020.
The largest positive contributors to growth in GDP in the
third quarter were the manufacturing, mining and trade
industries.
The manufacturing industry increased at a rate of 210,2%
and contributed 16,2 percentage points to GDP growth.
The mining and quarrying industry increased at a rate of
288,3% and contributed 11,8 percentage points.
The trade, catering and accommodation industry
increased at a rate of 137,0% and contributed 14,6
percentage points.
Figure 2 – Contributions to growth in GDP, Q3 2020
(% points)
1 Unless otherwise specified, growth rates are quarter-on-quarter,
seasonally adjusted and annualised. All growth rates are calculated
on the basis of series at constant prices.
Expenditure on real gross domestic product increased
at an annualised rate of 67,6% in the third quarter of
2020, as household consumption, exports and gross
fixed capital formation recovered.
Figure 3 – Growth in expenditure on GDP (%)
Household final consumption expenditure increased at
a rate of 69,5% in the third quarter of 2020, contributing
43,8 percentage points to total growth.
Government final consumption expenditure increased at
a rate of 0,7%, contributing 0,2 of a percentage point.
Gross fixed capital formation increased at a rate of
26,5%, contributing 5,2 percentage points.
Changes in inventories in the third quarter
contributed -20,5 percentage points to total growth.
Net exports contributed 38,9 percentage points to total
growth, mainly the result of a large increase in exports.
Figure 4 – Contributions to growth in expenditure on
GDP, Q3 2020 (% points)
4. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 3 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
Gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: Third quarter of 2020
Primary sector
The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry increased at a rate of 18,5%, and contributed 0,6 of a percentage point.
The increase was mainly due to increased production of field crops and horticultural and animal products.
The mining and quarrying industry increased at a rate of 288,3%, contributing 11,8 percentage points to GDP growth.
In the third quarter the industry recovered largely on account of the easing of local and global lockdown restrictions.
Higher production was mainly due to increased activities in the production of platinum group metals (PGMs), iron
ore, gold, manganese ore and diamonds.
Figure 5 – Mining and quarrying growth rate (%)
Secondary sector
The manufacturing industry increased at a rate of 210,2% in the third quarter, contributing 16,2 percentage points to
GDP growth. All ten manufacturing divisions reported positive growth rates in the third quarter. The four divisions
with the largest contributions to the increase were basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products
and machinery; petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products; transport equipment; and food and
beverages.
The electricity, gas and water industry increased at a rate of 58,0% in the third quarter, largely due to increases in
electricity distributed and water consumption as industrial and mining production activities resumed near normal
operations with the easing of lockdown restrictions.
The construction industry increased at a rate of 71,1%. Increases were reported for residential buildings, non-
residential buildings and construction works. Although the construction industry recovered between the second and
third quarters of 2020 – supported by the easing of lockdown restrictions – its level of activity remained well below
that of recent years.
5. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 4 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
Figure 6 – Manufacturing growth rate (%)
Tertiary sector
The trade, catering and accommodation industry increased at a rate of 137,0%. Increased economic activities were
reported for wholesale trade, retail trade, motor trade, catering and accommodation. However, so severe was the
impact of COVID-19 in the second quarter that total value added for the industry in the third quarter remained below
its level in the first quarter of 2020.
The transport, storage and communication industry increased at a rate of 79,3% as a result of increases in land
transport, air transport, transport support services and communication services.
Figure 7 – Transport, storage and communication growth rate (%)
Finance, real estate and business services increased at a rate of 16,5% in the third quarter. Increased economic
activity was reported for financial intermediation, insurance and pension funding and other business services.
6. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 5 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
General government services increased at a rate of 0,9%. The increase is partly attributable to increased employment
in the provincial government and higher education institutions.
Personal services increased at a rate of 38,6%. The easing of lockdown provided for the operations of services such
as fitness centres, sporting and recreation activities, etc. many of which were not allowed to operate under lockdown.
Expenditure on gross domestic product at constant 2010 prices: Third quarter of 2020
Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE)
Household final consumption expenditure increased at a rate of 69,5% in the third quarter, contributing 43,8
percentage points to total growth. The highest recovery rates were seen in durables and semi-durables, but the
largest contributor to growth was non-durables (which accounts for over a third of HFCE on goods and services).
The main positive contributors to growth in HFCE were expenditures on transport (173,6% and contributing 17,2
percentage points), alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (673,4% and contributing 9,5 percentage points),
food and non-alcoholic beverages (39,4% and contributing 9,1 percentage points), clothing and footwear (417,0%
and contributing 9,0 percentage points), recreation and culture (410,3% and contributing 8,2 percentage points), and
furniture, equipment and maintenance (102,0% and contributing 7,8 percentage points).
Figure 8a – HFCE growth rate (%) Figure 8b – HFCE contributions, Q3 2020 (% points)
Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE)
Final consumption expenditure by general government increased at a rate of 0,7% in the third quarter. Increases in
employment and spending on goods and services were reported in the third quarter.
7. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 6 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
Gross fixed capital formation increased at a rate of 26,5%. The main contributors to the increase were construction
works, residential buildings, non-residential buildings and machinery and other equipment2.
Figure 9a – GFCF growth rate (%) Figure 9b – GFCF contributions, Q3 2020 (% points)
Changes in inventories
There was a R156,2 billion (annualised) drawdown of inventories in the third quarter of 2020. Large decreases in
trade and mining contributed to the inventory drawdowns experienced in the third quarter of 2020.
2 Machinery and other equipment includes computers and related equipment.
8. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 7 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
Exports and imports of goods and services
Net exports contributed positively to growth in expenditure on GDP in the third quarter. Exports of goods and services
increased at a rate of 201,4%, largely influenced by increased trade in vehicles and other transport equipment;
precious metals and stones; machinery and equipment; mineral products; and base metals.
Imports of goods and services decreased at a rate of 1,6%, driven largely by decreases in textiles and textiles articles;
chemical products; and prepared foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco products.
Figure 10 – Exports and imports of goods and services (R million, seasonally adjusted and annualised)
Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General
9. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 8 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
Note on different measures of gross domestic product estimates and growth rates
There are three ways to measure estimates of GDP. These are as follows:
Production approach: The estimates of value added for each industry are calculated and aggregated, along with net
taxes on products, to derive GDP. It is calculated at current and constant prices and is used as the basis for the
headline GDP estimate.
Expenditure approach: This approach sums the different components of final demand in the economy, i.e. household
and government final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net exports. It is calculated at current
and constant prices.
Income approach: Gross operating surplus is added to compensation of employees to arrive at total value added. It
is calculated at current prices only.
Comparing estimates through three approaches allows for the inclusion of multiple datasets and the harmonisation
of the results increases the quality of GDP. The results of these estimates, which are published quarterly, are used
to calculate rates of growth. There are different way to do this.
Year-on-year percentage change: The estimate for a quarter is compared with the same quarter in the previous year,
e.g. 2020-Q3 with 2019-Q3. This is also done on a year-to-date basis, e.g. the first 2 or 3 quarters of a year compared
with the same period in the previous year.
Quarter-on-quarter percentage change: The estimate for the latest quarter is compared with the immediate preceding
quarter, e.g. 2020-Q3 with 2020-Q2. This adds a complication as there are seasonal differences between quarters,
e.g. weather conditions influence agriculture production, holidays of Easter and the festive season influence trade,
transport and accommodation, and year-end closures influence construction and many business services. To ensure
that these comparisons remain valid, the data are seasonally adjusted. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate can be
annualised to show what the annual (i.e. year-on-year) rate would be if the quarter-on-quarter rate were to occur
four times in succession. The annualised rate provides a crude forecasting model that is useful in times of stable
economic performance, but less so in a highly volatile environment.
The headline GDP growth rate for South Africa is the annualised quarter-on-quarter percentage change in GDP
estimated by the production approach at constant prices and seasonally adjusted. It is, however, important to take
note of the other growth rates as shown in the table below (all rates have been rounded to one decimal point).
Year Quarter
Year-on-year %
for individual
quarters
Year-on-year %
for year-to-date3
Quarter-on-quarter %
seasonally adjusted
Quarter-on-quarter %
seasonally adjusted and
annualised
(Headline rate)
2018
1 0,7 0,7 -0,7 -2,7
2 0,1 0,4 -0,1 -0,5
3 1,3 0,7 0,6 2,6
4 1,1 0,8 0,3 1,4
2019
1 0,0 0,0 -0,8 -3,2
2 0,9 0,5 0,8 3,3
3 0,1 0,4 -0,2 -0,8
4 -0,5 0,2 -0,4 -1,4
2020
1 0,1 0,1 -0,4 -1,7
2 -17,5 -8,8 -16,6 -51,7
3 -6,0 -7,9 13,5 66,1
3 The year-to-date measures year-on-year growth rates for three, six, nine and twelve months of each year compared with the corresponding
period in the previous year. For example, GDP decreased by 7,9% between the first nine months (or first thee quarters) of 2019 and the first
nine months (or first three quarters) of 2020.
10. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 9 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
The final two columns of the table above are shown in the following graph over a longer period, covering 2009 to
2019 (the most recent data are not included because they would require a much wider range on the vertical axis).
The blue bars show the quarter-on-quarter growth rate.
The blue and orange bars together add up to the quarter-on-quarter annualised growth rate.
In any given quarter, these growth rates always carry the same sign, i.e. both positive or both negative (whereas the
quarter-on-quarter growth rate and the year-on-year growth rate may carry different signs in the same quarter).
Figure 11 – Quarter-on-quarter growth rate compared with quarter-on-quarter annualised growth rate
(all based on seasonally adjusted values)
21. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 20 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
EXPLANATORY NOTES
Forthcoming
issues
Issue
Fourth quarter of 2020
First quarter of 2021
Second quarter of 2021
Expected date of publication
9 March 2021
8 June 2021
7 September 2021
Reference
documents
Information related to the compilation of the production-based GDP estimates is available in the
GDP release P0441 for the fourth quarter 2014 on the Stats SA website:
http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/P04413rdQuarter2014.pdf
Information related to the compilation of the expenditure-based GDP estimates is available in the
sources and methods document on the Stats SA website:
http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/Expenditure_on_GDP_Sources_and_Methods.pdf
TECHNICAL ENQUIRIES
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Email: Bontlenyanam@statssa.gov.za
Litshani Ligudu Telephone number: 012 310 4674
Email: Litshanil@statssa.gov.za
22. STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA 21 P0441
Gross domestic product, Third quarter 2020
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