A presentation by David King, logistics and transport analyst, growth and intelligence network, South Africa. Delivered during the African Ports Evolution event in Durban, South Africa More like this on www.transportworldafrica.co.za

2. Connecting ports with multi-modal
transport corridors in
sub-Saharan Africa
Presented by
David King
Logistics and Transport specialist
GAIN Group

3. Africa - The “dark” continent

4. We actually have separate countries!

5. Focus on 17 southern most countries

6. Total freight demand for the region
Total surface freight in 2014
=
1.5 billion tonnes
of which…
Intra region
Imports
Exports
Domestic

7. 31-year growth forecast (2014 -2045)
• GDP CAGR* = 2.8%
• Volume CAGR = 3.9%
• High long-term volume
growth forecasted for:
• Mozambique
• Botswana
• Tanzania
• Uganda
• Rwanda
• DRC
* Trading Economics 2015, http://www.tradingeconomics.com

8. Background and methodology
South African Freight Demand
Model (FDM)
• 372 districts within the RSA
• 83 commodity groups
• Base year with nine (9) forecast
year sets
• Three (3) scenarios – Low, Likely,
High
• Since 2006 – 10 iterations
• Output in tonnes and tonne-kms
Regional Freight Demand Model
(FDM)
• 17 countries divided into 63 districts
• 66 commodity groups
• Base year with two (2) forecast year
sets
• One (1) scenario – Likely
• Since 2012 – Four (4) iterations
• Output in tonnes and tonne-km

9. Estimated and forecasted trade volumes
Trade volumes
(million tonnes)
South Africa’s share
2045
2020
2014
505 million tonnes
=
2.6% of world seaborne trade*
and
41% of African seaborne trade*
* UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2015

10. Trade volume growth forecast
3,6%
4,2%
5,2%
4,8%
Exports Imports
31-YEAR CAGR (2014 – 2045)
Including South Africa Excluding South Africa
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

11. Continental trade profile 2014
67%
15%
2%
6%
10%
* Volumes in million tonnes
Exports
Imports

12. Opposing forces

13. Seaborne imports 2014

14. Seaborne imports 2045
Imports
=
128 million tonnes in 2014
and is forecasted to grow at a
CAGR of 4.4% to
485 million tonnes by 2045

15. Seaborne exports 2014

16. Seaborne exports 2045
Exports
=
318 million tonnes in 2014
and is forecasted to grow at a
CAGR of 3.7% to
968 million tonnes by 2045

17. Multi-modal corridors in the region
Congo Goba
Bas Congo Maputo
Malanje Limpopo
Lobito-Benguela North South
Namibe Beira
Trans Cunene Nacala
Trans Caprivi TAZARA
Trans Kalahari East Africa Central
Trans Oranje East Africa North
Manzini LAPSSET
Current and potential
multi-modal corridors

18. Trade flows - now and future
• Visual representation of
all trade flows using
existing ports, corridors
and current flow patterns
• The focus should not be
on the routing, but on the
potential volume that
needs to be
accommodated and
planned for in future

19. Future scenarios
• Four potential mining
export scenarios
1) Cassinga iron ore in Angola
• Estimates of 20m tonnes p.a.
2) Botswana coal
• Anything between 40m and 80m
tonnes p.a.
3) Chivhu iron ore in Zimbabwe
• 40m tonnes potential p.a.
4) Tete coal in Mozambique
• Forecasted to reach 50m tonnes
p.a. by 2045

20. Corridor trade volumes
24,34
16,33
11,47
8,02
6,71
5,14
4,80
4,80
4,33
4,30
4,18
3,33
2,30
2,23
2,18
1,82
1,78
1,77
1,61
1,43
1,38
1,29
0,95
0,27
105,64
36,58
60,53
61,63
80,11
26,35
13,57
23,79
23,41
18,87
26,71
15,38
9,72
10,36
16,88
5,64
7,73
26,33
6,14
5,88
6,91
2,61
19,35
1,41
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
EastAfricaNorth
Maputo
North-SouthBBR
North-SouthBR
Beira
Tazara
North-SouthNRZ
TransKalahari
EastAfricaCentral
TransCunene
Tanga
Congo
Limpopo
Lobito-Benguela
BasCongo
Lesotho
TransOranje
Nacala
Goba-Lebombo
Manzini-Durban
Malanje
Gauteng-Swaziland
Namibe
TransCaprivi
2045Tons
Millions
2014Tons
Millions
Tons 2014 Tons 2045
* 2045 forecasts based on current flow patterns

21. Corridor long-term growth forecast
9,7%
8,5%
7,7%
6,2%
6,0% 5,9% 5,8%
5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% 5,1% 5,0% 4,9% 4,7% 4,7% 4,7% 4,6% 4,5% 4,4%
3,9%
3,7%
2,6%
2,3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
31-yearCAGR

22. Rail potential of commodities
92%
90%
90%
90%
63%
60%
60%
52%
51%
51%
50%
49%
48%
47%
46%
44%
43%
43%
42%
42%
40%
40%
34%
34%
31%
30%
30%
30%
30%
29%
29%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
21%
21%
21%
21%
20%
19%
16%
14%
13%
5%
C O A L M I N I N G
I R O N O R E
M A G N E T I T E
R O C K P H O S P H A T E
S U L P H U R
M A N G A N E S E
C H R O M E
C E M E N T
F E R T I L I Z E R
G Y P S U M
F E R R O A L L O Y S
W H E A T
F L U O R S P A R
I R O N & S T E E L
M A I Z E
C O P P E R
N O N - F E R R O U S M E T A L P R O D U C T S
S A L T
O T H E R N O N - F E R R O U S M E T A L S
C H E M I C A L S
O T H E R M I N I N G
S T O N E , G R A N I T E , L I M E S T O N E
M O T O R V E H I C L E S A N D T R U C K S
C O T T O N
G R A I N S O R G H U M
O T H E R P E T R O L E U M P R O D U C T S
S O Y A B E A N S
B A R L E Y
P R O C E S S E D F O O D S
M O T O R V E H I C L E P A R T S
F U E L R E F I N E D
B E V E R A G E S
S O Y A B E A N P R O D U C T S
R I C E
A N I M A L F E E D
T O B A C C O P R O D U C T S
M E T A L P R O D U C T S & E L E C T R O N I C S
S C R A P M E T A L S
O T H E R M A N U F A C T U R I N G
P A P E R
P U L P O F W O O D A N D P A P E R
W O O D T I M B E R A N D P R O D U C T S
T E X T I L E P R O D U C T S
S U N F L O W E R S E E D
O T H E R A G R I C U L T U R E
G A S

23. Corridor rail potential 2014
* Total tonnes for country
Country
2014
Million tons* Rail potential
Angola 161.1 6.0%
Botswana 20.1 27.0%
Burundi 10.4 7.7%
Congo 34.8 8.9%
DRC 57.9 11.8%
Kenya 64.7 18.5%
Lesotho 4.9 18.5%
Malawi 27.6 13.8%
Mozambique 55.7 18.0%
Namibia 14.1 22.4%
Rwanda 19.4 10.2%
Swaziland 14.1 18.5%
Tanzania 65.1 15.4%
Uganda 51.4 11.7%
Zambia 37.1 19.0%
Zimbabwe 26.7 25.9%

24. Corridor rail potential 2045
* Total tonnes for country
Country
2045
Million tons* Rail potential
Angola 575.4 8.9%
Botswana 106.7 52.9%
Burundi 28.0 7.7%
Congo 113.1 10.7%
DRC 287.4 15.0%
Kenya 201.7 18.6%
Lesotho 15.4 18.9%
Malawi 114.0 14.8%
Mozambique 365.5 25.1%
Namibia 62.0 23.8%
Rwanda 98.7 12.2%
Swaziland 38.6 21.9%
Tanzania 342.6 16.2%
Uganda 249.8 15.3%
Zambia 143.5 20.0%
Zimbabwe 124.3 47.5%

25. Estimated and forecasted port volumes
1
3
11
1
5
2 2
23
8
23
4
1 0
4
13
1 21
4
14
1
7
3 2
29
10
30
11
1 0
6
18
1 23
14
46
19
24
17
5
96 95
90
46
7
2
27
69
5
11
-
20
40
60
80
100
120 CABINDA
LOBITO
LUANDA
NAMIBE
POINTE-NOIRE
MATADI
LAMU
MOMBASA
BEIRA
MAPUTO
NACALA
PEMBA
LUDERITZ
WALVISBAY
DARESSALAAM
MTWARA
TANGA
ANGOLA CONGO DRC KENYA MOZAMBIQUE NAMIBIA TANZANIA
TonnesMillions
2014 2020 2045
82 24 17 101 239 29 85
* Port volumes exclude oil and gas exports

26. “No matter how long and winding the
road might be, it will always lead you to
your destination”
Malawian proverb