Time-Varying Temporal Dependene in Autoregressive Models - Francisco Blasques...SYRTO Project
Time-Varying Temporal Dependene in Autoregressive Models - Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas. June 2014. International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
The microstructure of the european sovereign bond market. Loriana Pellizzon. ...SYRTO Project
This study analyzes the microstructure of the European sovereign bond market during the Eurozone crisis between 2011-2012. It finds that credit risk, as measured by CDS spreads, is non-linearly related to market liquidity, as higher credit risk leads to much greater illiquidity. Market makers temporarily stopped participating when CDS spreads widened significantly. ECB interventions successfully reduced solvency concerns and improved liquidity. The analysis uses a unique high-frequency dataset of order and trade data from the Italian sovereign bond market, the largest in the Eurozone, to examine changes in liquidity measures like bid-ask spreads and quote quantities around periods of financial stress.
Entropy and systemic risk measures
M. Billio, R. Casarin, M. Costola, A. Pasqualini
Ca’ Foscari Venice University
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Time-Varying Temporal Dependene in Autoregressive Models - Francisco Blasques...SYRTO Project
Time-Varying Temporal Dependene in Autoregressive Models - Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas. June 2014. International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
The microstructure of the european sovereign bond market. Loriana Pellizzon. ...SYRTO Project
This study analyzes the microstructure of the European sovereign bond market during the Eurozone crisis between 2011-2012. It finds that credit risk, as measured by CDS spreads, is non-linearly related to market liquidity, as higher credit risk leads to much greater illiquidity. Market makers temporarily stopped participating when CDS spreads widened significantly. ECB interventions successfully reduced solvency concerns and improved liquidity. The analysis uses a unique high-frequency dataset of order and trade data from the Italian sovereign bond market, the largest in the Eurozone, to examine changes in liquidity measures like bid-ask spreads and quote quantities around periods of financial stress.
Entropy and systemic risk measures
M. Billio, R. Casarin, M. Costola, A. Pasqualini
Ca’ Foscari Venice University
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Clustering in dynamic causal networks as a measure of systemic risk on the eu...SYRTO Project
Clustering in dynamic causal networks as a measure of systemic risk on the euro zone
M. Billio, H. Gatfaoui, L. Frattarolo, P. de Peretti
IESEG/ Universitè Paris1 Panthèon-Sorbonne/ University Ca' Foscari
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Predicting the economic public opinions in EuropeSYRTO Project
Predicting the economic public opinions in Europe
Maurizio Carpita, Enrico Ciavolino, Mariangela Nitti
University of Brescia & University of Salento
SYRTO Project Final Conference, Paris – February 19, 2016
Scalable inference for a full multivariate stochastic volatilitySYRTO Project
Scalable inference for a full multivariate stochastic volatility
P. Dellaportas, A. Plataniotis and M. Titsias UCL(London), AUEB(Athens), AUEB(Athens)
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Results of the SYRTO Project
Roberto Savona - Primary Coordinator of the SYRTO Project
University of Brescia
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Network and risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspectiveSYRTO Project
M. Billio, M. Caporin, L. Frattarolo, L. Pelizzon: “Network and risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspective”.
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Discussion of “Network Connectivity and Systematic Risk” and “The Impact of N...SYRTO Project
Discussion of “Network Connectivity and Systematic Risk” and “The Impact of Network Connectivity on Factor Exposures, Asset pricing and Portfolio Diversification” by Billio, Caporin, Panzica and Pelizzon. Arjen Siegmann. Amsterdam - June, 25 2015. European Financial Management Association 2015 Annual Meetings.
Spillover dynamics for sistemic risk measurement using spatial financial time...SYRTO Project
Spillover dynamics for sistemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models. Julia Schaumburg, Andre Lucas, Siem Jan Koopman, and Francisco Blasques. ESEM - Toulouse, August 25-29, 2014
http://www.eea-esem.com/eea-esem/2014/prog/viewpaper.asp?pid=1044
Maximum likelihood estimation for generalized autoregressive score models - A...SYRTO Project
Maximum likelihood estimation for generalized autoregressive score models - Andre Lucas, Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman. June 2014. International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
The D4I initiative harmonizes census data from 8 EU member states at a high spatial resolution of 100x100m grids and postal codes to provide insights into local migration patterns. It aims to produce new understandings of migration to support policymaking. The dataset includes over 45,000 local administrative units and allows researchers to analyze issues like the relationship between migration, diversity, and housing prices or electoral outcomes in cities. It also shows that many small towns and rural communities experience significant migration.
This document discusses social contact data and its importance for modeling infectious disease spread. It summarizes a project called TransMID that aims to collect, share, and analyze social contact data in an open science manner. Key activities include conducting a systematic review of social contact surveys, creating a website to openly share datasets, and developing modeling approaches and code to analyze the data. Future plans include new data collection, working with serological data, and addressing challenges around data sharing and GDPR regulations.
The digital-future-of-creative-europe-2015PwC España
Digitization has profoundly impacted the creative industries in Europe. Internet usage has grown significantly over the past decade, enabling digital distribution of content. While some sectors have struggled, overall creative industry revenues in the EU grew 1.2% annually between 2003-2013. All of the growth came from digital revenues, which increased by €36 billion, while non-digital revenues declined by €14 billion. The transformation to digital presents both challenges and opportunities for creative industry players.
Standard access regulation has challenges including deterring infrastructure investment and supporting inefficient market structures like duopolies. New access regulation is proposed that is fit for high growth data markets, secures at least 3 competitors, and uses proportionate risk sharing to support investment through symmetric access obligations. Only the variable part of access prices should be subject to economic tests, while fixed prices are negotiated with regulatory oversight. Non-profitable areas may require demand or infrastructure subsidies depending on potential for profitability.
This document summarizes a presentation about economic research on diversity through international migration. It discusses several topics covered in the research, including measuring diversity through indexes, the impact of migration on wages and employment, productivity and innovation, and trade. It notes that research finds diversity has a small but positive impact on wages and employment, and that among firms that hire skilled immigrants, greater diversity of foreign workers enhances product innovation. Meta-analyses show an increase in the number of immigrants increases trade volumes by around 1-2%. The presentation concludes by discussing the relevance of this research for policies in New Zealand.
This document discusses a 2011 honors project that examines the paradoxical effect of intercity transportation and communications infrastructure on urban concentration. The project analyzes data from 84 countries between 1960 and 2010. It finds that while such infrastructure promotes population dispersion among connected areas, it also leads to population concentration from unconnected locations into connected ones. As a result, infrastructure only effectively reduces excessive concentration when the dispersion effect exceeds the concentration effect. The document reviews relevant literature and proposes using both primacy and urbanization measures to capture both dispersion and concentration effects.
Giulia Melis - research and paper proposals for WG2tu1204
1) The document discusses research proposals related to volunteered geographic information (VGI) and people-centric urban sensing.
2) It examines why individuals contribute to VGI projects, the reliability of crowdsourced data, and how VGI is changing traditional geography.
3) Privacy issues are a major obstacle to widespread adoption of people-centric urban sensing, and the document explores how researchers are trying to address these concerns.
Case studies for European Government Bond Dynamics around Euro crisis, Brexit referendum and pre-French election.
Based on ESM working paper #8: https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/european-government-bond-dynamics-and-stability-policies-taming-contagion-risks
Journal article in JNTF: https://www.risk.net/journal-network-theory-finance/2437982/european-government-bond-dynamics-and-stability-policies
The document discusses ICT and economic growth. It notes that ICTs are recognized for their potential in socio-economic development and that the digital divide limits communication and cultural/economic flows. It describes the EU's i2010 initiative to promote the digital economy and ICT as a driver of inclusion. It also discusses definitions of the digital divide, factors influencing access to networks like income, time, and market structure, and international debates on bridging the divide.
Clustering in dynamic causal networks as a measure of systemic risk on the eu...SYRTO Project
Clustering in dynamic causal networks as a measure of systemic risk on the euro zone
M. Billio, H. Gatfaoui, L. Frattarolo, P. de Peretti
IESEG/ Universitè Paris1 Panthèon-Sorbonne/ University Ca' Foscari
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Predicting the economic public opinions in EuropeSYRTO Project
Predicting the economic public opinions in Europe
Maurizio Carpita, Enrico Ciavolino, Mariangela Nitti
University of Brescia & University of Salento
SYRTO Project Final Conference, Paris – February 19, 2016
Scalable inference for a full multivariate stochastic volatilitySYRTO Project
Scalable inference for a full multivariate stochastic volatility
P. Dellaportas, A. Plataniotis and M. Titsias UCL(London), AUEB(Athens), AUEB(Athens)
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Results of the SYRTO Project
Roberto Savona - Primary Coordinator of the SYRTO Project
University of Brescia
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Network and risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspectiveSYRTO Project
M. Billio, M. Caporin, L. Frattarolo, L. Pelizzon: “Network and risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspective”.
Final SYRTO Conference - Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
February 19, 2016
Discussion of “Network Connectivity and Systematic Risk” and “The Impact of N...SYRTO Project
Discussion of “Network Connectivity and Systematic Risk” and “The Impact of Network Connectivity on Factor Exposures, Asset pricing and Portfolio Diversification” by Billio, Caporin, Panzica and Pelizzon. Arjen Siegmann. Amsterdam - June, 25 2015. European Financial Management Association 2015 Annual Meetings.
Spillover dynamics for sistemic risk measurement using spatial financial time...SYRTO Project
Spillover dynamics for sistemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models. Julia Schaumburg, Andre Lucas, Siem Jan Koopman, and Francisco Blasques. ESEM - Toulouse, August 25-29, 2014
http://www.eea-esem.com/eea-esem/2014/prog/viewpaper.asp?pid=1044
Maximum likelihood estimation for generalized autoregressive score models - A...SYRTO Project
Maximum likelihood estimation for generalized autoregressive score models - Andre Lucas, Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman. June 2014. International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Conference
The D4I initiative harmonizes census data from 8 EU member states at a high spatial resolution of 100x100m grids and postal codes to provide insights into local migration patterns. It aims to produce new understandings of migration to support policymaking. The dataset includes over 45,000 local administrative units and allows researchers to analyze issues like the relationship between migration, diversity, and housing prices or electoral outcomes in cities. It also shows that many small towns and rural communities experience significant migration.
This document discusses social contact data and its importance for modeling infectious disease spread. It summarizes a project called TransMID that aims to collect, share, and analyze social contact data in an open science manner. Key activities include conducting a systematic review of social contact surveys, creating a website to openly share datasets, and developing modeling approaches and code to analyze the data. Future plans include new data collection, working with serological data, and addressing challenges around data sharing and GDPR regulations.
The digital-future-of-creative-europe-2015PwC España
Digitization has profoundly impacted the creative industries in Europe. Internet usage has grown significantly over the past decade, enabling digital distribution of content. While some sectors have struggled, overall creative industry revenues in the EU grew 1.2% annually between 2003-2013. All of the growth came from digital revenues, which increased by €36 billion, while non-digital revenues declined by €14 billion. The transformation to digital presents both challenges and opportunities for creative industry players.
Standard access regulation has challenges including deterring infrastructure investment and supporting inefficient market structures like duopolies. New access regulation is proposed that is fit for high growth data markets, secures at least 3 competitors, and uses proportionate risk sharing to support investment through symmetric access obligations. Only the variable part of access prices should be subject to economic tests, while fixed prices are negotiated with regulatory oversight. Non-profitable areas may require demand or infrastructure subsidies depending on potential for profitability.
This document summarizes a presentation about economic research on diversity through international migration. It discusses several topics covered in the research, including measuring diversity through indexes, the impact of migration on wages and employment, productivity and innovation, and trade. It notes that research finds diversity has a small but positive impact on wages and employment, and that among firms that hire skilled immigrants, greater diversity of foreign workers enhances product innovation. Meta-analyses show an increase in the number of immigrants increases trade volumes by around 1-2%. The presentation concludes by discussing the relevance of this research for policies in New Zealand.
This document discusses a 2011 honors project that examines the paradoxical effect of intercity transportation and communications infrastructure on urban concentration. The project analyzes data from 84 countries between 1960 and 2010. It finds that while such infrastructure promotes population dispersion among connected areas, it also leads to population concentration from unconnected locations into connected ones. As a result, infrastructure only effectively reduces excessive concentration when the dispersion effect exceeds the concentration effect. The document reviews relevant literature and proposes using both primacy and urbanization measures to capture both dispersion and concentration effects.
Giulia Melis - research and paper proposals for WG2tu1204
1) The document discusses research proposals related to volunteered geographic information (VGI) and people-centric urban sensing.
2) It examines why individuals contribute to VGI projects, the reliability of crowdsourced data, and how VGI is changing traditional geography.
3) Privacy issues are a major obstacle to widespread adoption of people-centric urban sensing, and the document explores how researchers are trying to address these concerns.
Case studies for European Government Bond Dynamics around Euro crisis, Brexit referendum and pre-French election.
Based on ESM working paper #8: https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/european-government-bond-dynamics-and-stability-policies-taming-contagion-risks
Journal article in JNTF: https://www.risk.net/journal-network-theory-finance/2437982/european-government-bond-dynamics-and-stability-policies
The document discusses ICT and economic growth. It notes that ICTs are recognized for their potential in socio-economic development and that the digital divide limits communication and cultural/economic flows. It describes the EU's i2010 initiative to promote the digital economy and ICT as a driver of inclusion. It also discusses definitions of the digital divide, factors influencing access to networks like income, time, and market structure, and international debates on bridging the divide.
Human capital will play an important role in addressing lower potential output levels in the post-crisis economy. Investing in education and workforce training can help displaced workers transition to new jobs and support economic restructuring. Human capital policy reforms are most effective when combined with other growth strategies like open markets and trade. International mobility of human capital complements knowledge transfer and benefits both sending and receiving countries, though greater policy coherence is needed.
Reshaping smart cities as public policyOECDregions
Presentation on Smart Cities made at Presentation at the International Conference on European Smart and Sharing Cities
on 22 November 2018, Prague, Czech Republic. Presentation by Tadashi Matsumoto, Climate Water and SDGs, OECD.
More information: http://www.oecd.org/regional/urban-development.htm
A large scale comparison of the position of countries in international collab...Zaida Chinchilla-Rodríguez
This work presents a preliminary large scale analysis of the relationship between collaboration and mobility indicators at the country level, taking into account the scientific capacities of countries.
Big Data for New Industrialization and Urbanization Development: A Case Study...IJERA Editor
Industrialization and urbanization are considered as interdependent processes of recent economic development.
Innovations in technology and higher affordability of electronic devices have facilitated current age of big data.
Use of digital data provided modern urbanization which is an essential element of industrialization and rapid
income growth globally. Most manufacturing and service production is efficient when undertaken in urbanized
areas where organizations can readily follow best practice in technology and management. Over the past three
decades, China has achieved enormous economic growth, accompanied by a growing number of large cities.
The purpose of this paper is to identify prominent issues relating influence of big data on modern
industrialization and urbanization development in China as well as in other regions. The case study of China
was taken to understand the advancement of big data on industrialization and urbanization enhancement. It was
investigated that industrialization and the rise of the service sector appear to have influenced the growth of
urbanization, but their role was relatively small when compared to the direct effects of economic growth. In the
coming years, urbanization will become increasingly an opportunity as well as a challenge to the country‟s
effort to sustain rapid growth and maintain effective development
Sustainability, infrastructure and resilience in the era of the SDGsSDGsPlus
The document summarizes Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin's speech on sustainability, infrastructure, and resilience in the era of the Sustainable Development Goals. The key points are:
1) Megatrends like population growth, technological disruption, and climate change are transforming the nature of work and economies.
2) Investments are needed in human capital, resilience, digital infrastructure, disruptive technologies, and sustainable finance to help countries adapt to these changes and achieve the SDGs.
3) The World Bank Group is implementing programs in these areas and exploring innovative solutions using technologies like blockchain, AI, and partnerships.
Diffusion of innovation and innovativeness of Russian regions (ICT-products a...Stepan Zemtsov
The authors explored the potential of new information and communications technologies (ICT) absorption in Russian regions primarily on an example of mobile communication
This document presents a Memorandum of Understanding for a COST Action called CYBERPARKS. The objective of CYBERPARKS is to strengthen dialogue between research on public spaces and ICT development. It will explore the relationship between ICT technologies and public spaces from social, ecological, and urban design perspectives. The Action aims to cross-pollinate these fields to generate improvement activities and spark new ideas. It will create a research platform and network to share knowledge on how ICT impacts the production and use of public open spaces as they relate to sustainable urban development. The economic impact of the Action's activities is estimated at EUR 52 million. The Memorandum will take effect when accepted by at least five parties and remain in
The placement of outdoor advertising is a crucial task where people identify those are as intrusive elements of the built environment. Thus, there is a need of finding, why outdoor advertisements are considered as intrusive elements. In this background, this research aims to examine an association between the level of intrusiveness (a negative visual quality) and the level of visual information. The methodology of this research includes Shannon’s Information Theory based entropy values to measure the level of visual information and the level of intrusiveness is evaluated by conducting a perception survey. The result of the level of visual information is correlated with the road users’ perception to see the association. The findings of the research are, the t-test result shows the outdoor advertising add visual information to the built environment and the correlation analysis depicts a positive correlation between the level of visual information and intrusiveness. Moreover, this research introduces a widely applicable methodology that proves the possibility of employing entropy to measure the visual information and permits advertisers and planners to objectively decide the placement or elimination of outdoor advertising.
The International Journal of Computational Science, Information Technology an...rinzindorjej
The International Journal of Computational Science, Information Technology and Control Engineering (IJCSITCE) is an open access peer-reviewed journal that publishes quality articles which make innovative contributions in all areas of Computational Science, Mathematical Modeling, Information Technology, Networks, Computer Science, Control and Automation Engineering. IJCSITCE is an abstracted and indexed journal that focuses on all technical and practical aspects of Scientific Computing, Modeling and Simulation, Information Technology, Computer Science, Networks and Communication Engineering, Control Theory and Automation. The goal of this journal is to bring together researchers and practitioners from academia and industry to focus on advanced techniques in computational science, information technology, computer science, chaos, control theory and automation, and establishing new collaborations in these areas.
Similar to Communication impacting financial markets - Jørgen Vitting Andersen, Ioannis Vrontos, Petros Dellaportas and Serge Galam. December, 14 2013 (20)
Comment on:Risk Dynamics in the Eurozone: A New Factor Model forSovereign C...SYRTO Project
Comment on:Risk Dynamics in the Eurozone: A New Factor Model forSovereign CDS and Equity Returnsby Dellaportas, Meligkotsidou, Savona, Vrontos. Andre Lucas. Amsterda, June, 25 2015. Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement Using Spatial Financial Time Series Models. Andre Lucas. Amsterdam - June, 25 2015. European Financial Management Association 2015 Annual Meetings.
Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement Using Spatial Financial Time...SYRTO Project
Spillover Dynamics for Systemic Risk Measurement Using Spatial Financial Time Series Models. Andre Lucas. Amsterdam - June, 25 2015. European Financial Management Association 2015 Annual Meetings.
A Dynamic Factor Model: Inference and Empirical Application. Ioannis Vrontos SYRTO Project
The document describes a dynamic factor model to analyze how financial risks are interconnected within the Eurozone. It uses the model to examine risk dynamics using sovereign CDS and equity returns from 2007-2009 covering the US financial crisis and pre-sovereign crisis in Europe. The model relates asset returns to latent sector factors, macro factors, and covariates. Bayesian inference is applied using MCMC to estimate the time-varying parameters and latent factors.
Sovereign credit risk, liquidity, and the ecb intervention: deus ex machina? ...SYRTO Project
Sovereign credit risk, liquidity, and the ecb intervention: deus ex machina? - Loriana Pelizzon, Marti Subrahmanyam, Davide Tomio, Jun Uno. June, 5 2014. First International Conference on Sovereign Bond Markets.
Measuring the behavioral component of financial fluctuaction. An analysis bas...SYRTO Project
This document summarizes a study that measures the behavioral component of financial market fluctuations using a model with two types of investors - rational investors who maximize expected utility, and behavioral investors who have S-shaped utility functions. The model blends the asset selections of these two investor types using a Bayesian approach, with the rational investor preferences as the prior and behavioral investor preferences as the conditional. An empirical analysis is conducted using the S&P 500 to estimate the optimal weighting parameter between the two investor types that maximizes past cumulative returns.
Measuring the behavioral component of financial fluctuation: an analysis bas...SYRTO Project
Measuring the behavioral component of financial fluctuation: an analysis based on the S&P500 - Caporin M., Corazzini L., Costola M. June, 27 2013. IFABS 2013 - Posters session.
Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time...SYRTO Project
Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models - Blasques F., Koopman S.J., Lucas A., Schaumburg J. June, 12 2014. 7th Annual SoFiE (Society of Financial Econometrics) Conference
ViewShift: Hassle-free Dynamic Policy Enforcement for Every Data LakeWalaa Eldin Moustafa
Dynamic policy enforcement is becoming an increasingly important topic in today’s world where data privacy and compliance is a top priority for companies, individuals, and regulators alike. In these slides, we discuss how LinkedIn implements a powerful dynamic policy enforcement engine, called ViewShift, and integrates it within its data lake. We show the query engine architecture and how catalog implementations can automatically route table resolutions to compliance-enforcing SQL views. Such views have a set of very interesting properties: (1) They are auto-generated from declarative data annotations. (2) They respect user-level consent and preferences (3) They are context-aware, encoding a different set of transformations for different use cases (4) They are portable; while the SQL logic is only implemented in one SQL dialect, it is accessible in all engines.
#SQL #Views #Privacy #Compliance #DataLake
Learn SQL from basic queries to Advance queriesmanishkhaire30
Dive into the world of data analysis with our comprehensive guide on mastering SQL! This presentation offers a practical approach to learning SQL, focusing on real-world applications and hands-on practice. Whether you're a beginner or looking to sharpen your skills, this guide provides the tools you need to extract, analyze, and interpret data effectively.
Key Highlights:
Foundations of SQL: Understand the basics of SQL, including data retrieval, filtering, and aggregation.
Advanced Queries: Learn to craft complex queries to uncover deep insights from your data.
Data Trends and Patterns: Discover how to identify and interpret trends and patterns in your datasets.
Practical Examples: Follow step-by-step examples to apply SQL techniques in real-world scenarios.
Actionable Insights: Gain the skills to derive actionable insights that drive informed decision-making.
Join us on this journey to enhance your data analysis capabilities and unlock the full potential of SQL. Perfect for data enthusiasts, analysts, and anyone eager to harness the power of data!
#DataAnalysis #SQL #LearningSQL #DataInsights #DataScience #Analytics
06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
Round table discussion of vector databases, unstructured data, ai, big data, real-time, robots and Milvus.
A lively discussion with NJ Gen AI Meetup Lead, Prasad and Procure.FYI's Co-Found
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023kuntobimo2016
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a multidisciplinary field of science and engineering whose goal is to create intelligent machines.
We believe that AI will be a force multiplier on technological progress in our increasingly digital, data-driven world. This is because everything around us today, ranging from culture to consumer products, is a product of intelligence.
The State of AI Report is now in its sixth year. Consider this report as a compilation of the most interesting things we’ve seen with a goal of triggering an informed conversation about the state of AI and its implication for the future.
We consider the following key dimensions in our report:
Research: Technology breakthroughs and their capabilities.
Industry: Areas of commercial application for AI and its business impact.
Politics: Regulation of AI, its economic implications and the evolving geopolitics of AI.
Safety: Identifying and mitigating catastrophic risks that highly-capable future AI systems could pose to us.
Predictions: What we believe will happen in the next 12 months and a 2022 performance review to keep us honest.
Global Situational Awareness of A.I. and where its headedvikram sood
You can see the future first in San Francisco.
Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans. Behind the scenes, there’s a fierce scramble to secure every power contract still available for the rest of the decade, every voltage transformer that can possibly be procured. American big business is gearing up to pour trillions of dollars into a long-unseen mobilization of American industrial might. By the end of the decade, American electricity production will have grown tens of percent; from the shale fields of Pennsylvania to the solar farms of Nevada, hundreds of millions of GPUs will hum.
The AGI race has begun. We are building machines that can think and reason. By 2025/26, these machines will outpace college graduates. By the end of the decade, they will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word. Along the way, national security forces not seen in half a century will be un-leashed, and before long, The Project will be on. If we’re lucky, we’ll be in an all-out race with the CCP; if we’re unlucky, an all-out war.
Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them. Nvidia analysts still think 2024 might be close to the peak. Mainstream pundits are stuck on the wilful blindness of “it’s just predicting the next word”. They see only hype and business-as-usual; at most they entertain another internet-scale technological change.
Before long, the world will wake up. But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them. A few years ago, these people were derided as crazy—but they trusted the trendlines, which allowed them to correctly predict the AI advances of the past few years. Whether these people are also right about the next few years remains to be seen. But these are very smart people—the smartest people I have ever met—and they are the ones building this technology. Perhaps they will be an odd footnote in history, or perhaps they will go down in history like Szilard and Oppenheimer and Teller. If they are seeing the future even close to correctly, we are in for a wild ride.
Let me tell you what we see.
13. Link between communication and its impact
on the markets
• r(t) the return of the market, RB(t)=[B(t)-
B(t-1)]/B(t), and η(t) Gaussian distributed
with zero mean and std. dev.:
18. This project has received funding from the European Union’s
Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological
development and demonstration under grant agreement n° 320270
www.syrtoproject.eu