The document discusses trends in cloud computing and information technology. It begins with an overview of cloud computing definitions and manifestations like IaaS, PaaS, SaaS. It then analyzes surveys of IT trends from organizations like AICPA and Gartner. A key difference is that AICPA trends had a more business-oriented focus on issues like security, governance and data management, while Gartner trends were more technical in nature and focused on specific technologies. The document examines how relevant trends are to businesses and how much adoption is driven by various factors like cost savings or keeping up with competitors.

1. Cloudy Forecasts and Other
Trends in Information
Technology
Alan McSweeney

2. Objectives
• To discuss the trend towards cloud computing in the
context of current and past trends and forecasts in
Information Technology
March 15, 2010 2

3. Agenda
• Cloud Computing
• IT Trends
• Cloud Adoption
March 15, 2010 3

4. Tired of Presentations from Vendors With Pictures
of Clouds?
March 15, 2010 4

5. Cloud Computing as a Trend in Information
Technology
• What are the sources of information technology trends
− Surveys by trade bodies of members
− Surveys by journals and publications
− Statements by analysts
− Statements by vendors
• Which are real trends and which represent wishful/fanciful
thinking or biased?
• Which trends are relevant to your organisation, based on
operating area, geography, size, state of adoption and use
of IT?
• What happened to previous trends?
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6. Cloud Definition
• The use of a collection of services, applications,
information and associated infrastructure consisting of
pools of computing, networking and storage resources
• Components can be rapidly provisioned, implemented and
decommissioned and scaled up or down providing for an
on-demand utility-like model of allocation and
consumption
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7. What Use Are Trends?
• To the business - what is likely to be able to generate
revenue through additional sales, access to new markets
or channels or save money
• To the IT function within an organisation – what new
technologies can help in managing IT like a business and
delivering value
• To suppliers of IT services - what customers will buy,
where I should focus my sales effort, how I should
restructure my products/services to be relevant, how I
should invest in R&D
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8. Business and IT Concerns Regarding Information
Technology
Information
Business Technology
Efficiency
Business Processes Delivered by IT Business Alignment, Management
Systems and Control
Internal Cost Cost, Budgeting, Planning
Focus Continuity and Availability Reliability, Continuity and Availability
Training Personnel
Training
Technology Changes
Competition
Vendors and Suppliers
External Regulation
What Partners and Competitors Are
Focus Governance and Standards Doing
Business Partners Technical Platforms of New
Applications
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9. Relevance of Trends in Information Technology to
Business and IT Information
Business Technology
Will it Reduce IT Management Costs?
Will it Save Money? Will it Improve IT Service
Internal Management?
Will it Generate Money?
Focus Will it Enable IT to be More
Responsive?
External Will Adoption of Trends Assist With
Will Existing Systems Be Rendered
Competition, Regulation and
Focus Governance?
Obsolete and Unsupported?
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10. How Much of Trend Adoption Is Driven By?
Information
Business Technology
Everybody Else Is Doing It
I Want To Do It So It Appears On My
Resume
I Like New Technology
Internal
Vendors Keep Talking About It
Focus
I Need One Good Idea To Stamp My
Mark On The Organisation
It Will Solve All My Problems
External
Focus
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11. Layered View of IT Infrastructure
Operations, Usage,
Layer 8+ Management, Control,
Governance What the Business
Layer 7
Applications, Systems and is Concerned With
Business Processes
Layer 6 Data Presentation, Data Security
Layer 5 Communication
Layer 4 Connection What IT is
Concerned With
Layer 3 Network Transmission
Layer 2 Storage and Network Addressing
Storage Media and Network
Layer 1
Signals
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12. Information Technology Concerns
• IT should concern itself with trends that
− Assist and improve its internal operations
− Improve the systems and service IT delivers to the business
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13. Cloud Manifestations
Cloud Computing A business model for delivering IT as a service,
referred to as IT as a service (ITaaS)
Types of Cloud Private Cloud - behind firewall serving applications
in their company
Public Cloud – shared infrastructure, accessible to
general customers with multiple tenants
Manifestations of IaaS - Infrastructure as a service
Cloud Computing PaaS - Platform as a service
SaaS - Software as a service
STaaS - Storage as a service
BRaaS - Backup and recovery as a service
EaaS - Everything as a Service
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14. Cloud Manifestations
• Is it all just a pain in the …aaS
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15. What are the Issues Cloud Computing is Trying to
Fix?
• Up to 85% of computing capacity is unused
• 54% growth in storage capacity every year
• 70% of IT budget on average is spent on maintaining
current IT infrastructures rather than adding new
capabilities
• How will cloud computing fix these issues?
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16. Migration to Cloud
Traditional
(Partially) Private Public
Application-
Virtualised (Internal) (Shared)
Based
Infrastructure Cloud Cloud
Infrastructure
Applications
Servers
Network
Storage
Relatively Minor and
A Major Change
Incremental Evolutions
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17. Migration to Cloud
• Virtualisation technology enables a shared and a type of
service-oriented infrastructure
• Creates a pool of computing, storage and network
resources that can be shared between applications
• Private cloud implementations are effectively more
packaged versions of virtualisation technology created by
vendors with additional management tools
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18. Cloud Features and Potential Benefits
• Features • Benefits
• Virtualised and standardised • Potential for simplified and more
infrastructure efficient IT and application
management
• Highly scalable (depending on the
application • Deliver more applications to large
number of users
• Fault tolerant and highly reliable and
available • increased utilisation at reduced cost
• Fast application deployment • Faster reaction to business
requirements
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19. Analysis of Some Information Technology Trends
• AICPA – Survey of members from 2001 to 2009 (2010 not
published) on initiatives in IT that are of concern to their
members
• Gartner – well known analyst company
• Two very different views of information technology trends
March 15, 2010 19

20. Gartner – Key IT Trends 2008 - 2010
2010 2009 2008
1 Cloud Computing Virtualisation Green IT
2 Advanced Analytics Cloud Computing Unified Communications
3 Client Computing Servers - Beyond Blades Business Process Modelling
4 IT for Green Web-Oriented Architectures Metadata Management
5 Reshaping the Data Centre Enterprise Mashups Virtualisation 2.0
6 Social Computing Specialised Systems Mashup and Composite
Applications
7 Security – Activity Monitoring Social Software and Social Web Platform and Web-
Networking Oriented Architectures
8 Flash Memory Unified Communications Computing Fabric
9 Virtualisation for Availability Business Intelligence Real World Web
10 Mobile Applications Green IT Social Software
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21. Gartner – Key IT Trends 2008 - 2010
• How relevant are these trends to you and your
organisation?
March 15, 2010 21

22. AICPA Top 15 IT Initiatives 2001-2009
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security Business And Financial Information Security
1 Management Management Management Reporting And Controls
Applications
Privacy Management IT Governance Identity And Access Assurance And Electronic Document Spam Technology Business Information Training And E-Business
2 Management Compliance Management Management Technology
Applications Competency
Secure Data File Business Continuity Conforming To Disaster And Business Data Integration Digital Optimisation Application Information Security Electronically-based
3 Storage, Transmission Management And Assurance And Continuity Planning Integration and Controls Business and Financial
And Exchange Disaster Recovery Compliance Standards Reporting
Planning
Business Process Privacy Management Privacy Management IT Governance Spam Technology Database and Web Services Quality of Service Privacy
4 Improvement, Work Application
Flow and Process Integration
Exception Alerts
Mobile and Remote Business Process Disaster Recovery Privacy Management Disaster Recovery Wireless Technologies Disaster Recovery Disaster Recovery Training and
5 Computing Improvement, Planning and Planning and Business Technology
Workflow and Process Business Continuity Continuity competency
Exception Alerts Management Management
Training and Identity and Access IT Governance Digital Identity and Collaboration and Disaster Recovery Wireless Technologies Communication Disaster Recovery
6 Competency Management Authentication Messaging Technologies
Technologies Technologies Bandwidth
Identity and Access Conforming to Securing and Wireless Technologies Wireless Technologies Data Mining Intrusion Detection Remote Connectivity Qualified IT Personnel
7 Management Assurance and Controlling Tools
Compliance Standards Information
Distribution
Improved Application Business Intelligence Mobile and Remote Application and Data Authentication Virtual Office Intrusion Detection Web-Based and Web- Quality of Service
8 and Data Integration Computing Integration Technologies Enabled Applications
Document, Forms, Mobile and Remote Electronic Archiving Paperless Digital Storage Technologies Business Exchange Customer Relationship Qualified IT personnel Electronic Audit
9 Content and Computing and Data Retention Technologies Technology Management Trail
Knowledge
Management
Electronic Data Document, Forms, Document, Content Spyware Detection Learning and Training Messaging Privacy Messaging Application Service
10 Retention Strategy Content and and Knowledge and Removal Competency Applications Applications (e-mail, Provider
Knowledge Management faxing, voicemail,
Management instant messaging)
Business Continuity Customer Training and E-mail Filtering RFID (Radio ID/Authentication ID/Authentication
11 Management and Relationship Awareness including Spam and Frequency
Disaster Recovery Management (CRM) Malware scanning Identification)
Planning
Conforming to Improved Application Business Process Outsourcing Search Radio Frequency M-Commerce
12 Assurance and and Data Integration Improvement, Identification (RFID)
Compliance Workflow and Process
Standards Exception Alerts
Collaboration – Training and Improved Application Storage and Backup Fuel Cells 3G Wireless Tablet PC
13 Information Portals Competency and Data Integration Technologies#
Business Intelligence Web-deployed Web Deployed Patch and Network Digital Home Simple Object Access 3G Wireless
14 Applications Applications Management Tools Protocol (SOAP)
Customer Information Portals Enterprise System Technology Display Technology# Autonomic Computers
15 Relationship Management Competency and
Management Effective Utilisation
March 15, 2010 22

23. AICPA Top 10 IT Initiatives 2004-2009
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
1 Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security Information Security
Management Management Management
2 Privacy Management IT Governance Identity And Access Assurance And Electronic Document Spam Technology
Management Compliance Management
Applications
3 Secure Data File Business Continuity Conforming To Disaster And Business Data Integration Digital Optimisation
Storage, Transmission Management And Assurance And Continuity Planning
And Exchange Disaster Recovery Compliance Standards
Planning
4 Business Process Privacy Management Privacy Management IT Governance Spam Technology Database and
Improvement, Work Application Integration
Flow and Process
Exception Alerts
5 Mobile and Remote Business Process Disaster Recovery Privacy Management Disaster Recovery Wireless Technologies
Computing Improvement, Planning and Business
Workflow and Process Continuity
Exception Alerts Management
6 Training and Identity and Access IT Governance Digital Identity and Collaboration and Disaster Recovery
Competency Management Authentication Messaging
Technologies Technologies
7 Identity and Access Conforming to Securing and Wireless Technologies Wireless Technologies Data Mining
Management Assurance and Controlling Information
Compliance Standards Distribution
8 Improved Application Business Intelligence Mobile and Remote Application and Data Authentication Virtual Office
and Data Integration Computing Integration Technologies
9 Document, Forms, Mobile and Remote Electronic Archiving Paperless Digital Storage Technologies Business Exchange
Content and Computing and Data Retention Technologies Technology
Knowledge
Management
10 Electronic Data Document, Forms, Document, Content Spyware Detection and Learning and Training Messaging Applications
Retention Strategy Content and and Knowledge Removal Competency
Knowledge Management
Management
March 15, 2010 23

24. Security, Privacy, Governance, Disaster Recovery
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
Information Information Information Information Information Information Information Information
1 Security Security Security Security Security Security Security Security And
Management Management Management Controls
Privacy IT Governance Identity And Access
2 Management Management
Business Continuity Disaster And Information
3 Management And Business Continuity Security and
Disaster Recovery Planning Controls
Planning
Privacy Privacy IT Governance Privacy
4 Management Management
Disaster Recovery Privacy Disaster Recovery Disaster Recovery Disaster Recovery
5 Planning and Management Planning and
Business Continuity Business Continuity
Management Management
Identity and Access IT Governance Digital Identity and Disaster Recovery Disaster Recovery
6 Management Authentication
Technologies
Identity and Access Conforming to Securing and Intrusion Detection
7 Management Assurance and Controlling
Compliance Information
Standards Distribution
Authentication Intrusion Detection
8 Technologies
Electronic Audit
9 Trail
Spyware Detection
10 and Removal
Business Continuity ID/Authentication ID/Authentication
11 Management and
Disaster Recovery
Planning
Conforming to
12 Assurance and
Compliance
Standards
13
14
15
March 15, 2010 24

25. Data, Information and Document Management/
Integration and Analysis and Related Initiatives
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
1
Electronic Business
2 Document Information
Management Management
Secure Data File Data Integration Digital Optimisation Application
3 Storage, Integration
Transmission And
Exchange
Database and
4 Application
Integration
5
Digital Identity and
6 Authentication
Technologies
Data Mining
7
Improved Business Application and
8 Application and Intelligence Data Integration
Data Integration
Document, Forms, Electronic Archiving Paperless Digital Storage Business Exchange
9 Content and and Data Retention Technologies Technologies Technology
Knowledge
Management
Electronic Data Document, Forms, Document, Content
10 Retention Strategy Content and and Knowledge
Knowledge Management
Management
11
Improved
12 Application and
Data Integration
Improved Storage and Backup
13 Application and Technologies#
Data Integration
Business
14 Intelligence
15
March 15, 2010 25

26. AICPA Top 15 IT Initiatives 2001-2009
• Notice any differences?
• Business-oriented focus of IT initiatives
• Not concerned with IT plumbing and infrastructure (such
as cloud) but on business concerns - running the business -
and business-related IT concerns – potential impact of IT
systems on the wider business
• Security, privacy, disaster recovery/business continuity
and governance concerns dominate
• How will cloud computing assist in delivering these
initiatives?
March 15, 2010 26

27. It’s Easy to Sneer at Past Predictions But …
• Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations in 2007 and
Beyond
− Vista will be the last major release of Microsoft Windows. The next generation
of operating environments will be more modular and will be updated
incrementally. The era of monolithic deployments of software releases is
nearing an end. Microsoft will be a visible player in this movement, and the
result will be more-flexible updates to Windows and a new focus on quality
overall.
− Blogging and community contributors will peak in the first half of 2007. Given
the trend in the average life span of a blogger and the current growth rate of
blogs, there are already more than 200 million ex-bloggers. Consequently, the
peak number of bloggers will be around 100 million at some point in the first
half of 2007.
− By 2010, 60% of the worldwide cellular population will be "trackable" via an
emerging "follow-me Internet." Local regulations have arisen to protect users'
privacy, but growing demands for national safety and civil protection are
relaxing some of the initial privacy limitations. Marketing incentives will also
push users to forgo privacy concerns, and many other scenarios will enable
outsiders to track their users.
March 15, 2010 27

28. Private Cloud Computing
• Cloud computing is largely an IT-focussed initiative that
potentially allows IT manage systems and applications
infrastructure more effectively
March 15, 2010 28

29. Private Cloud
• Private cloud should consist of
computing, network and Management,
Resource Management
storage hardware packaged Administration and
Control
with key management,
administration and control Backup
Provisioning
facilities into self-contained and
Recovery
systems and applications
infrastructure Information
Collection
Disaster
Recovery
and
• Not a panacea Auditing
− There is no such thing as an IT Data Management Security
system that does not require
maintenance and management Service Management Application Lifecycle
Management
• Cloud computing is a means to
an end and not an end in itself
March 15, 2010 29

30. Cloud Processes
• Possible
suite of
service
management
processes
associated
with
conversion
to cloud
March 15, 2010 30

31. Public Cloud
• Potential for fragmentation of applications and associated data as
specific business applications are run on separate clouds from
separate suppliers
ERP CRM
Application
Usage
Data
Integration
Document Mail and
Management Messaging
March 15, 2010 31

32. Public Cloud
• Offers the potential for the business to bypass the IT
function and buy the application from the cloud vendor,
leading to a proliferation of disparate platforms and
systems
• Public cloud needs to be viewed as a form of outsourcing
and needs to be implemented with the same care
• Look to learn from the lessons from problems with
outsourcing
• Vendors will target business rather than IT staff and IT will
be landed with implementation, maintenance and support
March 15, 2010 32

33. Cloud and The Business
• IT needs to be aware and beware of:
− If IT cannot help us, who else can?
March 15, 2010 33

34. Disconnect Between What the Business Wants and
What IT Delivers
What the Business Wants What the Business Gets
15% 5%
35% 25%
70%
50%
Maintain The Momentum Of The Business Through Maintain The Momentum Of The Business Through
Existing Business Systems Existing Business Systems
Contribute To Improving Business Results Contribute To Improving Business Results
Provide It Direction And Management That Is Aligned To Provide It Direction And Management That Is Aligned To
The Needs Of The Business The Needs Of The Business
March 15, 2010 34

35. IT Value Management is a Key Topic for IT
Do Not Measure Business Value From IT
40%
Investments
Metrics Do Not Adequately Capture Business
45%
Value
Executives Skeptical Of ROI From IT 52%
Find It Difficult To Calculate ROI 62%
CEO/CFO Demanding Better Ways To
71%
Demonstrate Value
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
• Results of managing IT for business value
− Budget flexibility coupled with strategic IT alignment leads to 50% greater IT
payoffs
− Improving management practices alongside IT investment drives 20% higher IT
yields
March 15, 2010 35

36. Lessons Learned from Outsourcing Problems
• Smoothly Transferring Services And Resources
− Common cause of failure is the ineffective management of the transfer of services and
resources to the service provider, leading to service delivery problems
− Successful service providers rigorously control the transfer of services and resources to
ensure that the new service is able to adequately deliver the service and the service
continuity is maintained.
• Maintaining Stakeholder Expectations
− Common source of failure in sourcing engagements is a difference in expectations
between the client, the service provider, and the suppliers and partners
− Identifying and managing those expectations helps to ensure a common understanding
of what is necessary for success
• Translating Implicit And Explicit Needs Into Defined Requirements With Agreed
Upon Levels Of Quality
− Frequent cause of failure in sourcing is that the service provider does not fully
understand the needs of the client
− Successful service providers rigorously gather and analyse the stated and unstated
needs, then translate those needs into a set of documented requirements
− Successful service providers also recognise that needs change over time and establish
provisions for gathering and analysing modifications to their services
March 15, 2010 36

37. Lessons Learned from Outsourcing Problems
• Reviewing Service Design And Deployment To Ensure An Adequate
Coverage Of The Client’s Requirements
− Failure in sourcing is caused by the service provider not fully addressing the
needs of the client
− To ensure that the service delivery will meet the client’s needs successful
engagements include rigorous reviews of the service design and deployment
activities by the clients and the service provider prior to service delivery
• Managing Client’s Security
− Managing security and controlling critical data and assets are critical to
establishing trust
− Security management includes protection of intellectual property,
confidentiality, and privacy concerns
• Monitoring And Controlling Activities To Consistently Meet The
Service Delivery Commitments
− Successful service providers rigorously monitor their service delivery activities
to ensure that the client’s commitments are being met
− Actions are taken to resolve and prevent problems, thereby escalating issues
as appropriate to ensure that they are addressed in a timely basis
March 15, 2010 37

38. Lessons Learned from Outsourcing Problems
• Monitoring And Managing Client’s And End User’s Satisfaction
− Success is not always defined in terms of meeting the agreed upon commitments,
because clients and end users may be unsatisfied even when commitments are being
met
− Successful sourcing engagements monitor the satisfaction levels of the stakeholders to
identify problems and take action
• Managing Employee Satisfaction, Motivation, And Retention
− IT-enabled sourcing often involves challenges during transition, deployment, and
service delivery
− High employee turnover jeopardises the service provider’s ability to meet its client’s
requirements and undermines their expected gains and performance levels
− Proactively monitoring and managing employee satisfaction and motivation can
improve personnel retention and effectiveness
• Managing Technological Shifts And Maintaining The Availability, Reliability,
Accessibility, And Security Of Technology
− Technology is a key component of outsourcing
− Major challenges for the service provider include keeping pace with rapid changes in
technology and effectively managing the technology infrastructure while changes are
incorporated
March 15, 2010 38

39. Summary
• Trends come from many sources: analysts, industry bodies, vendors,
surveys, publications and some of these may be tendentious
• A trend needs to be validated against your geography, operating
area, organisation size and technology maturity
• Adopting a trend is not an automatic guarantee of benefits - there
are rarely easy answers - you have to work at it
• There is still a need for architecture, analysis, design, validation to
ensure that you will derive the greatest benefits from adopting new
technologies/systems/applications
• Private cloud can offer flexibility
• Public cloud is a form of outsourcing and needs to be managed as
such
• There is no such thing as an IT system that does not require
maintenance and management
March 15, 2010 39