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Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020

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This describes the use of published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie as a substitute to officially published mortality statistics. This analysis uses data from RIP.ie for the years 2014 to 2020.

Death notice information is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data.

This describes the use of published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie as a substitute to officially published mortality statistics. This analysis uses data from RIP.ie for the years 2014 to 2020.

Death notice information is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data.

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Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020

  1. 1. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 An analysis of patterns and trends in mortality in Ireland using public death notice information Alan McSweeney February 2021 http://ie.linkedin.com/in/alanmcsweeney
  2. 2. Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................4 Notes on RIP.ie Web Site Data ............................................................................................................................4 Mortality Analysis................................................................................................................................................7 Deaths By Day of the Week .............................................................................................................................7 Daily Deaths....................................................................................................................................................7 Deaths By Week ..............................................................................................................................................9 Deaths by Month ...........................................................................................................................................11 Deaths by Quarter..........................................................................................................................................12 Deaths by County ..........................................................................................................................................13 Names............................................................................................................................................................22 Deaths by Surnames...................................................................................................................................22 Deaths by First Names...............................................................................................................................23 Deaths of Clergy and Members of Religious Orders..........................................................................................26
  3. 3. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 3 List of Figures Figure 1 – Differences Between CSO and RIP.ie Mortality Data............................................................................5 Figure 2 – Deaths by Day of Week 2014 to 2020....................................................................................................7 Figure 3 – Daily Number of Deaths by Day Number From 2014 to 2020 ...............................................................8 Figure 4 – Daily Number of Deaths Aligned to Weekday From 2014 to 2020 .........................................................8 Figure 5 – Range of Deaths for 2014 to 2019 Overlaid With Deaths for 2020..........................................................9 Figure 6 – Deaths by Week 2014 to 2020.............................................................................................................10 Figure 7 – Deaths by Month 2014 to 2020 ...........................................................................................................12 Figure 8 – Deaths by Quarter 2014 to 2020 .........................................................................................................12 Figure 9 – Proportion of County Populations That Died 2014 to 2020..................................................................14 Figure 10 – Difference in County Death Rate in 2020 from the Average of 2014-2019...........................................15 Figure 11 – County Death Rates 2014.................................................................................................................18 Figure 12 – County Death Rates 2015.................................................................................................................19 Figure 13 – County Death Rates 2016.................................................................................................................19 Figure 14 – County Death Rates 2017.................................................................................................................20 Figure 15 – County Death Rates 2018.................................................................................................................20 Figure 16 – County Death Rates 2019.................................................................................................................21 Figure 17 – County Death Rates 2020.................................................................................................................21 Figure 18 – Proportions of the Top 100 Surnames in Death Notices 2014 to 2020 .................................................22 Figure 19 – Proportions of the Top 100 First Names in Death Notices 2014 to 2020 .............................................23 Figure 20 – Numbers of Deaths by Religious Title in Ireland 2014 to 2020...........................................................28 Figure 21 – Numbers of Deaths by Religious Title for all Locations 2014 to 2020 .................................................29
  4. 4. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 4 Introduction This document describes the use of published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie as a substitute to officially published mortality statistics. Death notice information is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data. Notes on RIP.ie Web Site Data This analysis uses data from RIP.ie for the years 2014 to 2020. RIP.ie is a web site that contains death notices that are also published in newspapers. The information available on a death on RIP.ie includes: • Name of deceased • Six-digit reference • Date the death notice was published • Date of death • County of the deceased • Town of the deceased (this is frequently blank) • Text of death notice The information must be scraped from the web pages containing death notices displayed by the site. This extracted information has then to be parsed to make it usable. The data is informal. RIP.ie is the only publicly available source of detailed current death data in Ireland. However, the information needs to be filtered to make it usable. This processing is not exact and so the exclusion of deaths that have occurred outside Ireland may be problematic. There information is not present in the RIP.ie data that would be useful such as age at death and sex. Sex could be inferred from the name of deceased and the use of pronouns in the text of the notice. This results in inevitable differences between the officially published data and that extracted from RIP.ie. The RIP.ie data has a number of advantages over the officially published data: it is available immediately and contains a much greater level of granularity. The following schematic illustrates the key differences between the CSO and RIP.ie datasets.
  5. 5. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 5 Figure 1 – Differences Between CSO and RIP.ie Mortality Data The CSO data is taken from deaths registered in Ireland. This includes anyone who died in Ireland. The reporting of deaths is mandatory so the data can be assumed to be very accurate. A small number of deaths may occur that may not be registered but this is likely to be very small. The use of RIP.ie is not mandatory for deaths. The RIP.ie data has a number of issues including: • There are multiple occurrences of the same notice with slightly different values for County and Town. • There are duplicate notices for the same death with different reference numbers. • There are notices for deaths that occur in Northern Ireland. • There are notices for deaths of Irish people that occurred outside Ireland other than Northern Ireland. These notices can apply to deaths of Irish people who died while outside Ireland temporarily or Irish people who are resident outside Ireland long-term. • Death notices may not be published for foreign nationals who have died in Ireland, including both visitors, tourists and temporary workers but whose deaths will appear in the CSO data. • Death notices are frequently not published for the deaths of very young children but whose deaths will appear in the CSO data. • Some deaths will not have a death notice but these deaths will appear in the CSO data. • Deaths for which a notice is published in one year may have occurred in a prior year. In some cases, the gap can be several years. • There are data errors. For example, the date of death in some cases is after the date of publication of the death notice. In this analysis death notices were extracted up to the end of January 2021 to cater for this. There may be deaths that occurred in 2020 that were not published until after that date. • Some death notices have a date published value but no date of death value. In these cases, I have assumed that the date is death is the date of publication.
  6. 6. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 6 • A small number of notices refer to more than one death. The following table summarises the results of the processing of the RIP.ie data that was performed to address these issues. Year RIP.ie Death Notices Published Calculated Individual Deaths Reduction 2014 34,564 28,351 6,213 2015 37,168 29,385 7,783 2016 39,473 30,499 8,974 2017 40,239 30,313 9,926 2018 42,003 31,158 10,845 2019 42,459 31,163 11,296 2020 44,074 32,090 11,984 Total 279,980 212,959 67,021 The following table summarises the differences between the RIP.ie and CSO VSQ04 time series1 for the numbers of deaths in the four quarters for the years 2014 and 2020 and overall for each year. At the time this analysis was generated (Feb 2021), the CSO data is only available up to 2020Q2. Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Quarter 1 CSO 8,110 8,604 8,609 9,067 9,278 8,618 8,674 RIP.ie 7,854 8,249 8,462 8,436 9,227 8,257 8,459 Difference 256 355 147 631 51 361 215 Difference % 3.26% 4.30% 1.74% 7.48% 0.55% 4.37% 2.54% Quarter 2 CSO 7,197 7,565 7,697 7,315 7,592 7,519 8,582 RIP.ie 6,667 7,019 7,129 6,959 7,305 7,558 8,477 Difference 530 546 568 356 287 -39 105 Difference % 7.95% 7.78% 7.97% 5.12% 3.93% -0.52% 1.24% Quarter 3 CSO 7,001 6,851 7,129 6,987 7,143 7,358 RIP.ie 6,581 6,689 6,921 6,877 6,976 6,959 7,060 Difference 420 162 208 110 167 399 Difference % 6.38% 2.42% 3.01% 1.60% 2.39% 5.73% Quarter 4 CSO 6,787 6,932 6,955 7,115 7,103 7,639 RIP.ie 7,249 7,428 7,987 8,041 7,650 8,389 8,094 Difference -462 -496 -1,032 -926 -547 -750 Difference % -6.37% -6.68% -12.92% -11.52% -7.15% -8.94% Annual CSO 29,095 29,952 30,390 30,484 31,116 31,134 RIP.ie 28,351 29,385 30,499 30,313 31,158 31,163 32,090 Difference 744 567 -109 171 -42 -29 Difference % 2.62% 1.93% -0.36% 0.56% -0.13% -0.09% Averages Average CSO Deaths Per Day 79.71 82.06 83.03 83.52 85.25 85.30 Average RIP.ie Deaths Per Day 77.67 80.51 83.33 83.05 85.36 85.38 87.92 2016 and 2020 were leap years so for each of these years, there will be an additional day’s deaths added to the first quarter and to the year total. The two sets of numbers are generally quite close. The implicit assumption here is that the CSO death statistics are completely accurate. 1 VSQ04 Total Births, Deaths and Marriages Registered https://data.cso.ie/table/VSQ04
  7. 7. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 7 Mortality Analysis Deaths By Day of the Week The following chart shows the recorded number of deaths by day of week. Figure 2 – Deaths by Day of Week 2014 to 2020 The recorded number of deaths is generally the same across all days of the week. In general, about one seventh of the deaths occur on each of the days of the week. For some but not all years the proportion of deaths on Saturdays and Sundays is slightly lower than on other days. The day of the week is potentially important as each year starts on different weekdays. Year Start Day 2014 Wed 2015 Thu 2016 Fri 2017 Sun 2018 Mon 2019 Tue 2020 Wed Daily Deaths The following chart shows the number of deaths per day. In this chart the days for each year are not aligned to weekdays.
  8. 8. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 8 Figure 3 – Daily Number of Deaths by Day Number From 2014 to 2020 The following charts shows the same daily number of deaths with the days for each year aligned to the same weekday. Figure 4 – Daily Number of Deaths Aligned to Weekday From 2014 to 2020 At a superficial level, there is no difference with the pattern of deaths when the series for each starts on the same weekday or not.
  9. 9. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 9 The increase is recorded deaths from around Thu 26 Mar 2020 to around Fri 1 May 2020 reflects the increased number of deaths due to COVID-19. Outside this interval the daily variation in number of deaths. The following chart shows the range of daily numbers of death in the years 2014 to 2019 and the deaths for 2020. Figure 5 – Range of Deaths for 2014 to 2019 Overlaid With Deaths for 2020 There are many reasons why the number of deaths varies throughout the year and between years, such as: • Changes in mortality rates • Change in the size of the population • Changes in the age profile of the population • Seasonal factors that vary both cyclically within and between years such as seasonal influenza and temperature Deaths By Week The following chart shows the deaths by week. The values for the first and last weeks are lower than for other weeks as these are generally partial weeks.
  10. 10. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 10 Figure 6 – Deaths by Week 2014 to 2020 This illustrates the same excess deaths in weeks 13 to 19 of 2020. This excess is not apparent for the remainder of 2020. The following table contains the data used to generate this chart. Week 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average 1 373 261 207 780 673 445 408 449.57 2 613 628 678 816 823 694 664 702.29 3 594 644 678 780 824 665 675 694.29 4 577 625 680 698 723 674 648 660.71 5 615 636 679 678 752 715 658 676.14 6 631 674 650 579 745 692 628 657.00 7 648 642 664 633 723 652 686 664.00 8 669 688 641 647 666 601 638 650.00 9 642 668 610 619 657 633 607 633.71 10 615 676 638 610 723 624 621 643.86 11 599 616 625 573 667 623 630 619.00 12 581 611 611 543 629 561 596 590.29 13 524 621 638 558 622 571 682 602.29 14 577 589 626 559 635 556 814 622.29 15 587 562 616 537 593 631 889 630.71 16 538 569 605 575 609 598 878 624.57 17 501 553 527 569 579 572 755 579.43 18 506 536 580 565 539 561 731 574.00 19 530 561 574 555 535 610 680 577.86 20 464 561 529 542 530 614 604 549.14 21 508 529 518 518 555 552 566 535.14 22 527 538 551 528 569 630 576 559.86 23 497 499 553 495 524 522 530 517.14
  11. 11. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 11 Week 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average 24 484 547 511 533 565 564 516 531.43 25 511 506 505 456 486 617 562 520.43 26 478 500 520 517 586 555 480 519.43 27 473 516 513 521 569 574 488 522.00 28 514 500 517 486 507 533 486 506.14 29 525 508 514 516 554 524 567 529.71 30 523 412 552 509 530 533 541 514.29 31 467 492 543 529 505 497 471 500.57 32 479 501 500 511 528 500 548 509.57 33 524 525 496 483 477 507 536 506.86 34 491 554 541 538 516 544 523 529.57 35 533 485 508 549 549 545 551 531.43 36 516 522 495 514 523 511 557 519.71 37 470 540 549 584 540 527 588 542.57 38 494 484 543 561 572 514 535 529.00 39 502 575 518 508 539 545 519 529.43 40 505 522 588 569 537 597 636 564.86 41 534 510 534 572 582 598 593 560.43 42 517 580 546 606 587 607 585 575.43 43 502 587 564 612 551 620 634 581.43 44 562 589 577 560 505 605 654 578.86 45 582 542 526 559 640 578 575 571.71 46 523 531 575 654 603 640 609 590.71 47 581 562 651 576 571 667 599 601.00 48 476 521 580 579 610 632 593 570.14 49 548 559 615 606 609 646 607 598.57 50 577 589 697 679 601 656 615 630.57 51 582 619 663 644 633 700 617 636.86 52 624 589 658 730 598 691 646 648.00 53 338 431 722 95 90 340 495 358.71 Total 28,351 29,385 30,499 30,313 31,158 31,163 32,090 Deaths by Month The following chart shows the deaths by week from 2014 to 2020. The values for the first and last weeks will be lower than for other weeks as these will generally be partial weeks.
  12. 12. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 12 Figure 7 – Deaths by Month 2014 to 2020 Again, this shows excess deaths for April 2020. This does not occur consistently for the other months of 2020. Deaths by Quarter The following chart shows the deaths by month from 2014 to 2020. Figure 8 – Deaths by Quarter 2014 to 2020 As before, this shows excess deaths for second quarter of 2020. This does not occur consistently for the other quarters of 2020.
  13. 13. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 13 Deaths by County The following table shows the numbers of deaths by county from 2014 to 2020. County 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Carlow 379 394 387 412 470 516 495 Cavan 531 551 554 573 671 637 753 Clare 861 899 913 815 1,013 944 899 Cork 3,351 3,460 3,734 3,647 3,957 3,976 4,012 Donegal 1,176 1,162 1,221 1,310 1,330 1,318 985 Dublin 6,813 7,061 6,853 7,378 8,394 8,406 8,536 Galway 1,560 1,520 1,638 1,576 1,659 1,715 1,622 Kerry 1,171 1,273 1,318 1,235 1,259 1,244 1,339 Kildare 743 775 833 789 850 876 994 Kilkenny 552 663 753 675 732 674 732 Laois 433 490 505 503 425 427 487 Leitrim 281 311 325 321 302 314 308 Limerick 1,490 1,441 1,521 1,461 1,387 1,364 1,448 Longford 286 313 330 303 297 310 307 Louth 716 795 740 811 793 866 900 Mayo 1,194 1,206 1,283 1,276 1,157 1,091 1,096 Meath 744 779 834 809 772 732 868 Monaghan 376 363 391 418 373 389 494 Offaly 451 505 515 486 464 473 522 Roscommon 535 597 600 523 481 465 544 Sligo 515 526 548 537 471 475 534 Tipperary 1,270 1,362 1,505 1,345 1,189 1,186 1,250 Waterford 785 761 856 782 702 743 753 Westmeath 595 573 610 596 437 438 540 Wexford 834 865 974 992 951 906 958 Wicklow 709 740 758 740 622 678 714 Total 28,351 29,385 30,499 30,313 31,158 31,163 32,090 The following chart shows the proportion of the population of counties that died from 2014 to 2020.
  14. 14. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 14 Figure 9 – Proportion of County Populations That Died 2014 to 2020 The following charts shows the difference in the death rate by county for 2020 compared to the average of the preceding six years.
  15. 15. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 15 Figure 10 – Difference in County Death Rate in 2020 from the Average of 2014-2019 The proportion of population that died in 2020 is lower than the average for the preceding six years for the following counties: Clare Donegal Galway Leitrim Limerick Longford Mayo Roscommon Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wicklow
  16. 16. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 16 These proportions are based on the following county population estimated from 2014 to 2020 produced by the CSO2. These are estimates and may not be accurate. So any information based on these estimates may not be accurate. There are wide variations in the proportions of county populations that died from 2014 to 2020. Kildare and Meath have consistently low proportions. Leitrim and Mayo have consistently high proportions. County 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Carlow 55,156 55,430 57,040 57,628 58,284 59,023 59,535 Cavan 73,379 73,357 75,985 76,870 77,820 78,579 78,806 Clare 118,149 118,555 118,063 119,219 120,540 121,195 122,001 Cork 532,339 531,940 540,635 545,684 552,184 557,386 565,678 Donegal 160,672 160,624 158,615 160,462 162,445 164,029 164,504 Dublin 1,286,409 1,315,318 1,335,861 1,350,018 1,370,508 1,395,618 1,417,654 Galway 246,511 247,128 253,444 256,062 259,238 262,603 266,091 Kerry 147,117 147,008 144,348 145,696 147,431 148,821 151,035 Kildare 215,352 217,909 223,059 226,425 229,922 233,593 236,820 Kilkenny 96,497 96,975 98,672 99,688 100,824 102,102 102,988 Laois 82,832 83,207 85,011 86,096 87,345 88,349 88,078 Leitrim 32,084 32,075 32,143 32,517 32,919 33,240 33,336 Limerick 191,832 192,492 194,013 195,913 198,084 199,160 200,484 Longford 40,284 40,466 41,182 41,707 42,313 42,799 42,668 Louth 126,202 127,701 128,956 130,902 132,924 135,046 136,911 Mayo 130,236 130,561 129,320 130,656 132,276 133,994 135,773 Meath 189,869 192,124 196,259 199,221 202,297 205,527 208,366 Monaghan 61,038 61,019 61,792 62,512 63,284 63,901 64,086 Offaly 78,630 78,986 78,330 79,329 80,480 81,405 81,156 Roscommon 64,346 64,507 64,750 65,419 66,230 67,090 67,981 Sligo 64,841 64,821 64,767 65,521 66,331 66,978 67,172 Tipperary 161,791 161,791 161,791 161,791 161,791 161,791 161,791 Waterford 114,752 115,321 115,674 116,865 118,196 119,695 120,734 Westmeath 88,081 88,481 88,853 89,987 91,292 92,341 92,059 Wexford 147,100 147,829 149,785 151,328 153,051 154,991 156,337 Wicklow 139,944 141,606 142,625 144,777 147,013 149,360 151,424 Total 4,645,443 4,687,231 4,740,973 4,792,293 4,855,022 4,918,616 4,973,468 The proportions of the county populations that died from 2014 to 2020 are contained in the following table. County 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Carlow 0.69% 0.71% 0.68% 0.71% 0.81% 0.87% 0.83% Cavan 0.72% 0.75% 0.73% 0.75% 0.86% 0.81% 0.96% Clare 0.73% 0.76% 0.77% 0.68% 0.84% 0.78% 0.74% Cork 0.63% 0.65% 0.69% 0.67% 0.72% 0.71% 0.71% Donegal 0.73% 0.72% 0.77% 0.82% 0.82% 0.80% 0.60% Dublin 0.53% 0.54% 0.51% 0.55% 0.61% 0.60% 0.60% Galway 0.63% 0.62% 0.65% 0.62% 0.64% 0.65% 0.61% Kerry 0.80% 0.87% 0.91% 0.85% 0.85% 0.84% 0.89% Kildare 0.35% 0.36% 0.37% 0.35% 0.37% 0.38% 0.42% 2 DHA06 Population: Denominator Data https://data.cso.ie/table/DHA06
  17. 17. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 17 County 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Kilkenny 0.57% 0.68% 0.76% 0.68% 0.73% 0.66% 0.71% Laois 0.52% 0.59% 0.59% 0.58% 0.49% 0.48% 0.55% Leitrim 0.88% 0.97% 1.01% 0.99% 0.92% 0.94% 0.92% Limerick 0.78% 0.75% 0.78% 0.75% 0.70% 0.68% 0.72% Longford 0.71% 0.77% 0.80% 0.73% 0.70% 0.72% 0.72% Louth 0.57% 0.62% 0.57% 0.62% 0.60% 0.64% 0.66% Mayo 0.92% 0.92% 0.99% 0.98% 0.87% 0.81% 0.81% Meath 0.39% 0.41% 0.42% 0.41% 0.38% 0.36% 0.42% Monaghan 0.62% 0.59% 0.63% 0.67% 0.59% 0.61% 0.77% Offaly 0.57% 0.64% 0.66% 0.61% 0.58% 0.58% 0.64% Roscommon 0.83% 0.93% 0.93% 0.80% 0.73% 0.69% 0.80% Sligo 0.79% 0.81% 0.85% 0.82% 0.71% 0.71% 0.79% Tipperary 0.78% 0.84% 0.93% 0.83% 0.73% 0.73% 0.77% Waterford 0.68% 0.66% 0.74% 0.67% 0.59% 0.62% 0.62% Westmeath 0.68% 0.65% 0.69% 0.66% 0.48% 0.47% 0.59% Wexford 0.57% 0.59% 0.65% 0.66% 0.62% 0.58% 0.61% Wicklow 0.51% 0.52% 0.53% 0.51% 0.42% 0.45% 0.47% The proportions of county populations that die are related to the age profile of the county and the proportions in older age groups3. The following table shows the proportions of county populations aged 85 and older compared with proportions of county populations that died in 2020. The values for the counties Kildare and Meath (lowest county death rates) and May and Leitrim (highest county death rates) in 2020 are highlighted. County in Descending Age Order 85 Years and Over Age Weighting Rank Age Weighting Rank County in Descending Proportion of Population Died Proportion of Population Died Kildare 1.06% 1 2 Meath 0.4166% Laois 1.17% 2 4 Kildare 0.4197% Meath 1.22% 3 1 Wicklow 0.4715% Westmeath 1.36% 4 5 Laois 0.5529% Offaly 1.45% 5 11 Westmeath 0.5866% Louth 1.46% 6 12 Donegal 0.5988% Wicklow 1.47% 7 3 Dublin 0.6021% Longford 1.49% 8 15 Galway 0.6096% Dublin 1.56% 9 7 Wexford 0.6128% Carlow 1.59% 10 23 Waterford 0.6237% Cork 1.64% 11 13 Offaly 0.6432% Wexford 1.64% 12 9 Louth 0.6574% Limerick 1.65% 13 16 Cork 0.7092% Waterford 1.70% 14 10 Kilkenny 0.7108% Monaghan 1.76% 15 18 Longford 0.7195% Cavan 1.77% 16 26 Limerick 0.7223% Galway 1.78% 17 8 Clare 0.7369% Donegal 1.85% 18 6 Monaghan 0.7708% 3 This does not take into account the slight regional variations in life expectancy that exist in Ireland. See Table 4, Life expectancy by sex, age, NUTS3 region and year of Irish Life Tables 2015-2017 https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ilt/irishlifetablesno172015-2017/.
  18. 18. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 18 Clare 1.86% 19 17 Tipperary 0.7726% Kilkenny 1.86% 20 14 Sligo 0.7950% Kerry 1.93% 21 24 Roscommon 0.8002% Tipperary 2.01% 22 19 Mayo 0.8072% Sligo 2.02% 23 20 Carlow 0.8314% Mayo 2.23% 24 22 Kerry 0.8865% Leitrim 2.40% 25 25 Leitrim 0.9239% Roscommon 2.46% 26 21 Cavan 0.9555% The following charts show the proportions of the county populations that died in the years 2014 to 2020. Figure 11 – County Death Rates 2014
  19. 19. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 19 Figure 12 – County Death Rates 2015 Figure 13 – County Death Rates 2016
  20. 20. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 20 Figure 14 – County Death Rates 2017 Figure 15 – County Death Rates 2018
  21. 21. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 21 Figure 16 – County Death Rates 2019 Figure 17 – County Death Rates 2020
  22. 22. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 22 Names This section looks at the first and last names contained in the death notices. Deaths by Surnames The following diagram illustrates the proportions of the top 100 surnames contained in the death notices from 2014 to 2020. Figure 18 – Proportions of the Top 100 Surnames in Death Notices 2014 to 2020 The information in this chart is contained in the following table. Murphy 1.71% Gallagher 0.42% Kenny 0.31% Buckley 0.25% Lyons 0.20% Kelly 1.32% Smith 0.41% Moore 0.31% Browne 0.25% Moloney 0.20% Byrne 1.08% Fitzgerald 0.40% Keane 0.31% Ward 0.25% Cunningham 0.20% O'Brien 1.06% Carroll 0.39% Brady 0.30% Sweeney 0.25% Sheehan 0.19% Walsh 1.05% Flynn 0.38% Reilly 0.30% Maguire 0.24% Higgins 0.19% Ryan 1.01% Power 0.38% Duffy 0.30% Smyth 0.24% Flanagan 0.19% O'Sullivan 0.92% O'Connell 0.38% Moran 0.29% Butler 0.23% Barrett 0.19% O'Connor 0.91% Kavanagh 0.38% Hayes 0.29% McDonnell 0.23% Curran 0.19% Doyle 0.72% Farrell 0.37% Barry 0.29% McCormack 0.23% Cahill 0.19% McCarthy 0.66% Collins 0.36% Roche 0.28% Griffin 0.22% McLoughlin 0.19% O'Neill 0.60% Connolly 0.36% O'Keeffe 0.28% Cronin 0.22% McDonagh 0.19% Lynch 0.57% Quinn 0.35% Fitzpatrick 0.27% Egan 0.22% Mooney 0.19% Dunne 0.50% Clarke 0.34% Foley 0.27% Delaney 0.22% O'Rourke 0.18% Murray 0.50% O'Donnell 0.34% Casey 0.27% Hogan 0.22% Crowley 0.18% Brennan 0.48% O'Leary 0.33% O'Mahony 0.27% Hughes 0.21% O'Driscoll 0.18% Burke 0.48% Whelan 0.33% Martin 0.26% O'Donoghue 0.21% McDermott 0.18% Daly 0.45% McGrath 0.33% O'Callaghan 0.26% Hickey 0.21% Molloy 0.18% O'Reilly 0.44% Healy 0.32% McMahon 0.26% White 0.21% O'Toole 0.18%
  23. 23. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 23 Nolan 0.44% Doherty 0.32% Maher 0.26% Cullen 0.21% King 0.18% Kennedy 0.43% O'Shea 0.32% O'Donovan 0.25% Keogh 0.21% Corcoran 0.17% These 100 surnames account for 36.43% of all deaths. This illustrates an historical cultural homogeneity and the cultural lag that is to be expected from the generally older age cohorts that dominate the number of deaths. Deaths by First Names The following diagram illustrates the proportions of the top 100 first names contained in the death notices from 2014 to 2020. Figure 19 – Proportions of the Top 100 First Names in Death Notices 2014 to 2020 The information in this chart is contained in the following table. Mary 5.82% Peter 0.85% Seamus 0.48% Anna 0.32% Susan 0.19% John 5.15% Teresa 0.80% Ellen 0.47% Nancy 0.31% Hugh 0.19% Patrick 4.58% Martin 0.78% Gerard 0.47% Alice 0.31% Eamonn 0.19% Michael 3.66% Patricia 0.78% Josephine 0.46% Stephen 0.30% Geraldine 0.19% Margaret 2.99% Joan 0.73% Carmel 0.45% Christina 0.30% Agnes 0.19% Thomas 2.88% Edward 0.73% Rita 0.44% Bernard 0.30% Nuala 0.19% James 2.51% Marie 0.70% Brian 0.44% Vincent 0.28% Andrew 0.18% Kathleen 2.12% Nora 0.68% Helen 0.42% Donal 0.28% Eamon 0.18% Elizabeth 1.52% Noel 0.64% Christopher 0.41% Gerry 0.27% Una 0.18% Anne 1.47% Sheila 0.63% Robert 0.40% May 0.27% Eugene 0.18% Joseph 1.46% David 0.62% Bernadette 0.38% Brigid 0.27% Desmond 0.18% Eileen 1.30% Denis 0.58% Philomena 0.38% Phyllis 0.26% Hannah 0.18%
  24. 24. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 24 William 1.28% Brendan 0.55% Jimmy 0.36% Philip 0.26% Julia 0.18% Catherine 1.19% Bridie 0.54% Breda 0.36% Noreen 0.25% Charles 0.18% Bridget 1.13% Maura 0.54% George 0.36% Maurice 0.22% Monica 0.18% Sean 1.07% Daniel 0.53% Rose 0.35% Timothy 0.22% Evelyn 0.17% Ann 0.97% Paul 0.52% Frances 0.34% Christy 0.21% Oliver 0.17% Anthony 0.95% Kevin 0.49% Angela 0.34% Dermot 0.21% Jeremiah 0.17% Maureen 0.95% Richard 0.49% Sarah 0.32% Theresa 0.21% Laurence 0.17% Francis 0.87% Liam 0.49% Pauline 0.32% Matthew 0.20% Veronica 0.17% These 100 first names account for 73.38% of all deaths. As before, this illustrates a cultural homogeneity that is to be expected from the generally older age cohorts that dominate deaths. These first names can be compared with the current top baby names4. The top male name John represented in death notices is currently at position 26. The top female name Mary is currently at position 82. Boys' Name Rank in 2020 Rank In Death Notices Girls' Names Rank in 2020 Rank In Death Notices Jack 1 Not present Grace 1 233 James 2 7 Fiadh 2 Not present Noah 3 1664 Emily 3 192 Daniel 4 36 Sophie 4 618 Conor 5 199 Ava 5 1232 Finn 6 921 Amelia 6 724 Liam 7 40 Ella 7 453 Fionn 8 883 Hannah 7 92 Harry 9 104 Lucy 9 196 Charlie 10 111 Mia 10 1232 Cillian 11 803 Olivia 11 402 Adam 12 392 Lily 12 145 Darragh 12 463 Ellie 13 420 Luke 14 224 Anna 14 61 Rian 15 1115 Emma 14 343 Oisin 16 687 Eabha 16 Not present Michael 17 4 Chloe 17 803 Tadhg 18 430 Sophia 18 1034 Thomas 19 6 Molly 19 181 Sean 20 16 Saoirse 20 1232 Alex 21 364 Sadie 21 170 Patrick 22 3 Evie 22 2229 Jamie 23 440 Kate 23 215 Cian 24 564 Aoife 24 468 Oliver 25 97 Freya 24 Not present John 26 2 Isla 26 2229 Bobby 27 338 Caoimhe 27 1115 Dylan 28 618 Holly 28 1115 Leo 28 147 Robyn 29 1115 Ryan 30 587 Katie 30 227 Oscar 31 1034 Sarah 30 59 Ben 32 329 Roisin 32 334 4 Irish Babies' Names 2020 https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p- ibn/irishbabiesnames2020/babiesnames2020tables/
  25. 25. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 25 Boys' Name Rank in 2020 Rank In Death Notices Girls' Names Rank in 2020 Rank In Death Notices David 33 31 Alice 33 63 Mason 34 2229 Ruby 34 541 Theo 34 850 Sofia 35 Not present Tommy 36 Not present Cara 36 1034 Jacob 37 1388 Ada 37 587 Callum 38 850 Eva 37 260 Matthew 39 80 Isabelle 39 1388 Alexander 40 440 Sadhbh 39 1664 Alfie 41 453 Bonnie 41 1388 Max 42 921 Erin 41 1034 Tom 43 Not present Willow 43 Not present Ollie 44 541 Zoe 44 850 Aaron 45 420 Millie 45 747 Jake 46 772 Clodagh 46 641 Donnacha 47 1664 Leah 46 772 Ethan 47 1115 Ciara 48 440 Evan 49 664 Charlotte 49 353 Benjamin 50 687 Emilia 50 1664 Senan 51 554 Isabella 50 488 William 51 13 Rosie 52 317 Sam 53 343 Annie 53 Not present Shay 53 413 Eve 54 641 Logan 55 2229 Maya 54 Not present Joshua 56 921 Layla 56 Not present Nathan 57 709 Maisie 57 227 Kai 58 Not present Sienna 57 2229 Archie 59 803 Jessica 59 747 Joseph 59 11 Ailbhe 60 1034 Jayden 61 1664 Clara 60 724 Luca 61 1664 Lauren 62 921 Billy 63 101 Harper 63 Not present Arthur 64 152 Abigail 64 972 Danny 65 141 Faye 65 1664 Theodore 66 1388 Amber 66 2229 Samuel 67 296 Aoibhin 67 2229 Cathal 68 275 Mila 67 2229 Lucas 68 2229 Maria 69 138 Aidan 70 119 Zara 70 1388 Freddie 71 Not present Elizabeth 71 9 Rory 72 329 Rose 72 56 Robert 73 50 Aria 73 2229 Eoin 74 319 Alannah 74 2229 Frankie 75 Not present Bella 74 664 Leon 75 772 Ivy 74 772 Muhammad 77 Not present Daisy 77 687 Ruairi 77 1115 Julia 77 92 Eoghan 79 664 Meabh 77 1388 George 80 54 Amy 80 440 Isaac 81 921 Lara 80 2229 Louis 81 272 Mary 82 1
  26. 26. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 26 Boys' Name Rank in 2020 Rank In Death Notices Girls' Names Rank in 2020 Rank In Death Notices Odhran 81 2229 Nina 83 641 Sonny 81 453 Penny 83 850 Kyle 85 1034 Mollie 85 386 Rian 86 1115 Luna 86 Not present Shane 87 203 Niamh 86 402 Henry 88 116 Evelyn 88 96 Sean 88 16 Laura 88 218 Edward 90 26 Abbie 90 747 Martin 90 23 Cora 90 307 Mark 92 107 Rebecca 92 380 Andrew 93 87 Fiadh 93 Not present Anthony 93 18 Heidi 93 1388 Kayden 93 Not present Croia 95 Not present Odhran 93 2229 Elsie 95 269 Christopher 97 49 Hazel 95 346 Sebastian 97 1388 Pippa 95 2229 Hugo 99 618 Maeve 99 159 Joey 99 573 Paige 99 1664 The use of the name Jack as a proper name rather than as a diminutive for John is a relatively new phenomenon. Deaths of Clergy and Members of Religious Orders One additional possible insight that can be gained from an analysis of the mortality information from RIP.ie relates to the deaths of clergy and members of Catholic religious orders. The age profile of this population cohort is much older than the general population5. These numbers can be simply obtained by analysing the name text strings included in death notices for one of the following words: 5 Archdiocese of Dublin Projection of Position in 2030 https://www.dublindiocese.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Results- meeting-unprotected.pdf September 2015.There are 386 priests in the Dublin Archdiocese aged under 75 and 33 aged from 75 to 80.The expected number of new joiners to the priesthood up to 2030 is 16. DIOCESAN PRIEST AGE PROFILE 2013 https://www.catholicbishops.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2013-age-profile- quick-report-revised-May-2014.pdf contains the following number and age profile of priests in all dioceses, including Northern Ireland that are not included in this analysis. These numbers do not include retired priests. Age Group Numbers of Priests in All Dioceses 2013 Proportion General Population Proportion 2013 25-34 32 1.55% 15.45% 35-44 214 10.35% 15.34% 45-54 480 23.22% 12.85% 55-64 519 25.11% 10.28% 65-74 561 27.14% 7.12% 75-84 231 11.18% 3.90% 85 + 30 1.45% 1.32% Total 2,067 The General Population Proportion is derived from PEA07 - Estimated Population (Persons in April) https://data.cso.ie/table/PEA07.
  27. 27. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 27 "SR." "SR " "SISTER " "MOTHER " "FR " "FR." "FATHER" "BR " "BR." "BROTHER" "REV " "REV." "REVD " "REVD." "REVEREND" "CANON " "MONSIGNOR " "MGR " "MGR." "BISHOP " "CARDINAL " The words “CANON “ and “BROTHER” can occur in surnames and must be filtered. The word “MOTHER “ can occur in surnames and as a term of endearment and must also be filtered. The title “CANON” and “REVEREND” can occur in both Catholic and Protestant religions. Filtering this is subjective. More than one of these titles can occur in the same notice such as: “Very Rev. Fr.” and “Very Reverend Canon”. The titles are not be double counted. Where a deceased has more than one title, the first one is used. The numbers of deaths in the various categories of religious titles from 2014 to 2020 are shown in the following table. Religions Title (and its Variants) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Sister 261 278 295 276 287 250 287 1,934 Father 118 117 116 122 111 128 163 875 Brother 28 31 25 30 25 21 21 181 Reverend 37 36 29 30 26 26 20 204 Canon 6 4 3 1 3 12 17 46 Monsignor 4 2 6 7 3 5 10 37 Bishop 3 4 3 1 4 4 3 22 Cardinal 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Total 457 472 477 468 459 446 521 3,300 These numbers include active and retired clergy and members of religious orders. In the Catholic Church, priests retire on the 30th of June following their 75th birthday. From age 66 to 75, priests work at a reduced level.
  28. 28. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 28 Figure 20 – Numbers of Deaths by Religious Title in Ireland 2014 to 2020 This shows a decline in the numbers of Catholic religious. There is a noticeable increase in the number of deaths of priests (title of Father) in 2020. This probably relates to increased deaths of retired priests and mirrors the increase in nursing home deaths due to COVID 19. The reduction in the numbers of religious orders reflects the diminishing influence and position of Catholic Church in Irish society. There is limited information available on the numbers of religious6. The following table summarises information on the numbers of Clergy from the 2016 census. 2011 2016 Total Number At Work 3,536 3,377 Average Age At Work 57.2 58.5 While this analysis is concerned with deaths in Ireland, a characteristic of Irish members of religious order is that they frequently move outside Ireland. When the analysis is extended to include these categories that were previously excluded, the numbers of deaths in the various sets of religious titles from 2014 to 2020 are shown in the following table. Religions Title (and its Variants) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Sister 272 296 309 293 305 268 313 2,056 Father 134 144 127 138 137 150 180 1,010 Brother 31 31 28 32 29 22 21 194 Reverend 37 42 26 33 28 27 31 224 Canon 7 6 5 5 6 16 9 54 Monsignor 6 3 11 9 6 8 13 56 Bishop 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 12 Cardinal 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Total 488 524 508 512 513 493 569 3,607 6 EB068 - Average Age of Population Aged 15 Years and Over At Work 2011 to 2016 https://data.cso.ie/table/EB068 EZ054 - Population Aged 15 Years and Over At Work 2011 to 2016 https://data.cso.ie/table/EZ054
  29. 29. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 29 This shows an additional 10% of deaths of clergy and members of religious orders over the numbers for Ireland only. Figure 21 – Numbers of Deaths by Religious Title for all Locations 2014 to 2020
  30. 30. Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020 Page 30 For more information, please contact: http://ie.linkedin.com/in/alanmcsweeney

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