The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Inflation is an increase in the aggregate money price level. In 2015, Vietnam has reached its lowest annual Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) in the last decade of 0.63%. This allowed the country to stimulate production and grow well for a short term. However, the inflation needs to increase to 4-5% for a long-term growth. Thus, the government has made some moves to spike up inflation at a control level in 2016. Along with this action, the increase in the world price of oil and the decrease in Vietnam’s food supply have contributed to the rise of inflation during the first five months of 2016. The inflation rate is projected to grow to more than 5% in the end of 2016 and will continuously grow in 2017.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
Most recently, the strengthening economy has improved the budgetary outlooks of most state and local governments, leading them to reduce their pace of fiscal tightening. At the same time, though, fiscal policy at the federal level has become significantly more restrictive. In particular, the expiration of the payroll tax cut, the enactment of tax increases, the effects of the budget caps on discretionary spending, the onset of the sequestration, and the declines in defense spending for overseas military operations are expected, collectively, to exert a substantial drag on the economy this year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the deficit reduction policies in current law will slow the pace of real GDP growth by about 1-1/2 percentage points during 2013, relative to what it would have been otherwise.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
This monthly briefing highlights how the world economy is struggling to gain momentum, emerging economies facing policy dilemma in trying to stabilize currencies and the G20 meeting making a call for new measures to lift growth and create jobs.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
Inflation is an increase in the aggregate money price level. In 2015, Vietnam has reached its lowest annual Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) in the last decade of 0.63%. This allowed the country to stimulate production and grow well for a short term. However, the inflation needs to increase to 4-5% for a long-term growth. Thus, the government has made some moves to spike up inflation at a control level in 2016. Along with this action, the increase in the world price of oil and the decrease in Vietnam’s food supply have contributed to the rise of inflation during the first five months of 2016. The inflation rate is projected to grow to more than 5% in the end of 2016 and will continuously grow in 2017.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
Most recently, the strengthening economy has improved the budgetary outlooks of most state and local governments, leading them to reduce their pace of fiscal tightening. At the same time, though, fiscal policy at the federal level has become significantly more restrictive. In particular, the expiration of the payroll tax cut, the enactment of tax increases, the effects of the budget caps on discretionary spending, the onset of the sequestration, and the declines in defense spending for overseas military operations are expected, collectively, to exert a substantial drag on the economy this year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the deficit reduction policies in current law will slow the pace of real GDP growth by about 1-1/2 percentage points during 2013, relative to what it would have been otherwise.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
This monthly briefing highlights how the world economy is struggling to gain momentum, emerging economies facing policy dilemma in trying to stabilize currencies and the G20 meeting making a call for new measures to lift growth and create jobs.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell sharply in November, led by a steep decline in respondents’ willingness to purchase a large household item and their expectations for future business conditions.
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
Our monthly economic review is intended to
provide background to recent developments in
investment markets as well as to give an
indication of how some key issues could impact in
the future.
In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern.
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
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Explore our most comprehensive guide on lookback analysis at SafePaaS, covering access governance and how it can transform modern ERP audits. Browse now!
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
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➢CHILDREN ART EXHIBITION 2024: BEYOND BARRIERS
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➢ Winner [CROSS] Tour in HCM
➢ Super Show 9 in HCM with Super Junior
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"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
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As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
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As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
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Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
5 Things You Need To Know Before Hiring a Videographer
Class4
1. Global Economic Journalism
Class 4: Government Economic Policy - 1
Jeffrey Timmermans
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
2. Economic goals of governments
✤ Full employment
✤ or at least as full as possible...
✤ Steady annual growth in output
✤ without overheating
✤ Stable prices (low but steady rise in inflation)
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
3. Measuring economic performance
✤ Output of goods & services ✤ Productivity of workers
✤ Changes in prices for goods &
services over time
✤ Mood of consumers
✤ Employment
✤ Total supply of money
✤ Trade with other countries
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
4. Consumer Price Index
✤ Based on the prices of a “basket” of goods & services
✤ Typically, only focus on % change in index, rather than the absolute
index
✤ Baseline for index (index=100) is set at an arbitrary point in time
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
5. Problems with CPI
✤ Actual index base year is arbitrary (Oct. 2004-Sep. 2005 in HK)
✤ Different countries have different “baskets”
✤ “Baskets” change over time, even in the same country
✤ The quality of goods changes over time
✤ You get far more computer for the price now than 10 years ago
✤ Consumers will substitute pricey goods with cheaper ones
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
6. CPI: Core vs. non-core
Change in U.S. CPI 1958-2011
✤ Core CPI: excludes “volatile”
components such as food and
energy
✤ But definition of “core” can
vary from country to country
✤ Non-core CPI: includes all
index components
Source: Thumbcharts
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
7. Writing about CPI
✤ Focus on the percentage change, rather than the nominal index level
✤ Use CPI as a proxy for the inflation rate
✤ Using core on non-core depends on your audience
✤ Core inflation is used to determine economic policy responses
✤ Non-core is better to show effects of inflation on consumers
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
8. Japan Consumer Prices Fall 1%
By Tomoyuki Tachikawa
1 October 2010
TOKYO -- Japan's consumer prices fell in August for the 18th consecutive month, Change
government data showed Friday, suggesting no end in sight for a deflationary trend
that has been undermining the broader economy, and providing further impetus for
the Bank of Japan to take additional monetary easing measures soon.
The country's core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices,
Cause
fell 1.0% from the same month a year earlier, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications said. The result was in line with the median forecast in a poll of
private economists. Expectations
The latest data show that the pace of decline in the core CPI is easing up, with the
figure having fallen 1.1% in July and 1.0% in June compared with a recent low of
1.5% in April. This suggests that a mild recovery in the economy is propping up Context
domestic demand and preventing prices from falling further.
But analysts warn that deflation may accelerate as the yen stays strong with the
outlook for the U.S. and European economies uncertain, dragging on Japan's export- Future
reliant economy and reducing the prices of oil, food, metals and other commodities
the country buys from overseas.
Persistent price declines usually eat into corporate profits, which could prompt firms
to scale down operations and cut payrolls, increasing the risk that worsening income
and employment conditions will make consumers reluctant to spend. That in turn
should raise the possibility of Japan's economy entering a lull in the near future.
"As long as deflation continues and the yen rises, falling corporate profits could keep
putting downward pressure on the economy," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Comment
Norinchukin Research Institute. "It's very likely for the Japanese economy to stall
down the road."
Tokyo policymakers have also become more concerned over the future course of Future
Japan's economy.
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
9. CPI in Hong Kong
✤ CPI (A): basket based on expenditure patterns of 50% of households,
namely those with low income (HK$4,400-$17,300 currently)
✤ CPI (B): based on the habits of the next 30% of households by income
(HK$17,300-$31,100)
✤ CPI (C): based on the next 10% (HK$31,100-$67,900)
✤ Composite CPI: includes all of the above, or 90% of HK households
✤ This is usually the headline number
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
10. DJ UPDATE: HK March CPI Up 4.6%; Inflationary Pressures Likely To Rise
583 words
22 April 2011
By Chester Yung and Fiona Law
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Hong Kong's consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in
two and a half years in March, and further increases are likely as inflationary
Change
pressures grow both at home and abroad, the government said Thursday.
Hong Kong's headline consumer price index rose 4.6% in March from a year earlier,
the Census and Statistics Department said Thursday, accelerating from February's Future
3.7% rise to the fastest pace since the CPI rose 4.6% in August 2008. March's
reading was also above the median 4.1% rise forecast by 11 economists surveyed
earlier by Dow Jones Newswires. Expectations
Underlying CPI, which excludes the effects of government relief measures, rose 4.4%
in March from a year earlier, the government said, also up from February's 3.6%
increase.
Context
A government spokesman said in a statement increases in private residential rents
and rising food prices will likely continue to add to inflationary pressure in the coming
months, while 'the hike in the tobacco duty and higher fuel costs also contributed
somewhat to the increase in inflation (in March).'
Private housing rental rates rose 4.9% in March, higher than February's 4.1% rise.
Property prices in the territory rose around 24% last year, following a 30% surge in
2009, but rents haven't kept pace because they are normally locked in by contracts
Cause
that cover a year or more. Public and private rents account for about one-third of
Hong Kong's CPI basket.
Food prices rose 6.3% on year in March, significantly higher than the 5.0% increase
in February.
Hang Seng Bank Senior Economist Irina Fan said the major drivers of inflation in
March--a surge in global food prices and strong domestic demand--are unlikely to
ease in the near term. Comment
'Imported inflation is weighing in, especially when other Asian currencies are rising
and the Hong Kong dollar is unchanged and pegged to the U.S. dollar,' she said,
adding she expects the city's CPI rise to reach 4.7% or even higher for the full year.
The government
Wednesday, 16 May, 12 has said it expects the CPI to rise 4.5% in 2011, above the 2.4%
11. Some other measures of inflation
✤ Wholesale Price Index (WPI): measures prices on a wholesale level
✤ Sometimes considered a leading indicator for CPI, but only a
fraction of wholesale goods are inputs in final consumer goods
✤ GDP Deflator: used to remove the effects of inflation from GDP to get
“real” economic growth
✤ Basically, CPI with a much bigger basket: all final newly produced
goods & services
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
12. Unemployment Rate
✤ Tracks the number of people in the labor force who don’t have jobs
✤ How do you define “labor force”?
✤ Usually expressed in percentage terms rather than an absolute
number
✤ Full employment is a bad thing!
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
13. Problems with unemployment
data
✤ Based on a household survey
✤ Doesn’t include people who have given up looking for work
✤ Definitions of “unemployment” vary among countries
✤ Japan’s definition is more restrictive than the U.S.’s
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
14. Grim Milestone as Jobless Rate Tops 10%
By Sudeep Reddy
9 November 2009
The unemployment rate last month soared above 10% for the first time since the early 1980s, a milestone likely to weigh on
consumer confidence and stir new efforts in Washington to spur job creation.
Some 558,000 people joined the ranks of the jobless in October, sending the rate to 10.2% and the tally of officially
unemployed Americans to 15.7 million, the Labor Department said. The 10% figure could overshadow last week's news that
the economy began growing again this summer after a long contraction.
"Ten percent is a terribly important number," Democratic pollster Peter Hart said. "It is not only the 10.2% of the people who
are unemployed, it is the number of people who are reliant on that 10%. It's probably the other 20% who say, 'I'm worried,
I'm uncertain, I'm afraid about this, I worry about my job.'"
The report intensified pressure on the government to provide more unemployment relief and spur hiring. President Barack
Obama on Friday signed an extension of jobless benefits for up to 20 weeks. He said his administration was considering new
investment in infrastructure, as well as tax cuts for businesses, to stimulate employment.
"History tells us that job growth always lags behind economic growth," Mr. Obama said, "which is why we have to continue to
pursue measures that will create new jobs."
The unemployment news initially sent stocks lower. But the market ended up modestly on hopes that job growth would return
by early next year.
The payroll figures weren't entirely bleak. The survey of employers showed fewer jobs lost in October than in previous months;
figures for August and September were revised up. The temporary employment sector, seen as an indicator of future
employment, gained 34,000 jobs to mark the third straight month of increases. The rest of the business and professional-
services sector grew, as did education and health jobs. Factory overtime hours increased.
Still, October marked only the second time since recordkeeping began in 1948 that the jobless rate topped 10%. It stayed that
high for 10 months in the early 1980s, peaking at 10.8% in November and December of 1982. Economists expect the
unemployment rate to continue rising at least until spring, even as gross domestic product resumes growing.
The 10.2% rate "reinforces a view on Main Street that recovery is spelled j-o-b-s and not G-D-P," said Stuart Hoffman, chief
economist at PNC. "We're in a sort of economic purgatory where we see growth in productivity and growth in output, and even
some growth in consumer spending. But it hasn't been sustained long enough for businesses to create jobs."
Sectors slammed hardest in the recession continued to suffer. Manufacturing lost 61,000 jobs, more than in the prior three
months. Construction employment fell by 61,000, near the pace of prior months. Retail declined by 40,000 jobs. A measure of
unemployment that includes people who have stopped actively searching for work, or are working part-time because they can't
find full-time work, hit 17.5% in October -- up half a percentage point from September.
Tom O'Pray, 36 years old, of Rockville, Md., lost his job as a hotel waiter a year ago and spent six months looking for a full-
time position. Mr. O'Pray applied to as many as four openings a week as an executive assistant -- a prior occupation of his --
but stopped looking in April. "There are so many overqualified applicants that I never made it to the top of the stack to ever
get an interview," Mr. O'Pray said.
He went to the movies with a friend and -- "on a lark," he said -- asked the theater manager if he had jobs. There was a part-
time position, paying $7.85 an hour, that included concession sales and cleaning restrooms.
"I'd prefer another office job," he said. "I'm working harder, for less money, than I ever have in my whole life."
The economy's course in coming months will depend on how well it can transition from growth backed by government support
-- such as the $787 billion stimulus package -- to an expansion built on the private sector.
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
15. Consumer/Business Confidence
Index
✤ A leading indicator of short-term consumer spending or investment
by businesses
✤ Often presented as a diffusion index
✤ How many respondents are confident minus how many are
pessimistic
✤ A reading of above 50 indicates optimism
✤ Compare to previous month/quarter for changes in sentiment
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
16. Problems with confidence indices
✤ Can have relatively large margin of error
✤ How big is the survey?
✤ Can mask dramatic changes in consumer or business sub-groups
✤ In the case of the tankan, check the sub-index for smaller businesses
Wednesday, 16 May, 12
17. Some other indicators
✤ Balance of Payments, including Trade Balance
✤ Industrial Production
✤ Retail Sales
✤ Tourist Arrivals
✤ Home Sales/Land Sales
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