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Greet Maris                            Thierry Van de Merckt
   Head of CRM Group                      Project Manager


   Succesvol, efficiënt en operationeel
  management van de customer life-cycle

Une gestion efficace et performante du cycle
                   clients

                       24.03
                            .09 IM
                                  A   GIBR
                                          AINE
Agenda

( Citi in Belgium

( Vadis Consulting sa

( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature
  client?

( Methodology & Tools

( Making things operational

( Business Added Value
Citi in the world

( World-wide financial services company organized into :
    Institutional Client Group & Corporate
    Consumer Banking
    Global Wealth Management – Private Banking
    Global Cards Group

( Present in + 100 countries

( Servicing 200 million customer accounts

( By over 300.000 employees
Citi in Belgium

                                   Consumer Banking with specific focus on
                                     consumer credit


                  Customers : 560.000       Employees : 1500




Points of sales : 212
Citi in Belgium
Consumer Banking in Belgium

                      BIG 4
                + 85% market share




                   Challengers
Who is VADIS

Our objective is to leverage internal and external data for our
clients in order for them to gain a significant competitive
advantage, in terms of market expansion, enterprise
profitability and global risk reduction.

( VADIS Consulting sa/nv
       Founded Jan 2004, as the preferred analytic partner
       of WDMLocated in WDM building, Brussels
       Focuses on the implementation of Analytical
       Solutions
       Software development & innovation (45% of turnover
       in R&D)
       17 high level consultants and developers in this field
       Very active in B2B analytical world
       Consulting & Integration activity as well
Agenda

( Citi in Belgium

( Vadis Consulting sa

( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature
  client?
Managing Customer Life Cycle

( From prospect …               to client …        to your best client




                                              Anticipate
                         Understand               &
                                               Manage




 How to keep a growing process, where more and more information can be captured,
      where a lot different interactions and events will influence the life cycle,
                         still to be efficient and operational?
Capture Consumer Life Cycle



    Family / Demographic                                        Market Situation
             Acquisition                   Events




                                 Events




                                                       Events
                                           Events
                  Interactions                                  Product Usage
                                          Portfolio

 Defining elements describing life cycle is joint effort from external data provider,
   marketeer, product manager and sales person, so that there is a fertilization
                   cross interactions and cross product lines.
Capture Consumer Life Cycle

( Think big

( Variables are based on RFM+

( Data driven approach
     Data dictionary – clear definitions
     Data audit
     Updates and historisation



 In order to allow industrialization of full process, based on this data driven approach,
                  important to have the data updated and historized.
Agenda

( Citi in Belgium

( Vadis Consulting sa

( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature
  client?

( Methodology & Tools
Methodology & critical success factors



                    Client
Business
                    360°
Knowledge
                    Data


Bank Products       RFM
Bank Processes      Events
Contact Strategy    Dynamics
Client Life cycle   Contact/Channel
Analytical data     Family/Co-Holder
                    Socio-demo




        1.500 computed variables account for the life-cycle stage of each client.
It’s a generic container for all predictive models, analysis and contact strategy design.
Events are combined within models (not outside)

( Event X: Age in months of the measured event since last run
  of the model
           CARD_Cash_LastAge                           Frequency   Fraction_of_Target

      70,000                                                                                            2.5%
                  63,598
      60,000

                                    Chance for a client                                                 2.0%

      50,000
                                    to be interested by
                                                                                                        1.5%
      40,000                        our offer
      30,000
                           Number of clients                                                            1.0%

      20,000
                           having the computed
                                                                                                        0.5%
      10,000               characteristic
                                    3,091           2,701                    2,819         4,536

          0                                                                                             0.0%
                    -1
                   No event           0              1+2                      3+4+5     6+7+8+9+10+11
Events are combined within models (not outside)

( Event X: Age in months of the measured event since last run
  of the model
             CARD_Cash_LastAge                                  Frequency    Fraction_of_Target

        70,000                                                                                                    2.5%
                    63,598
        60,000
                                                                                                                  2.0%

        50,000


        40,000                                                              Lift of 4.8 on 4% of clients          1.5%



        30,000
                                                                                                                  1.0%

        20,000

                                                                                                                  0.5%
        10,000
                                          3,091              2,701                     2,819         4,536

            0                                                                                                     0.0%
                      -1
                     No event               0                 1+2                       3+4+5     6+7+8+9+10+11


                                 4.8 more chance to sell Y if proposed within the month of event X




Events are captured from operational systems, transformed in the analytical datamart,
       and used with 10 other variables to get a lift of 7.9 on the top 5% cases.
Contact Strategy is part of the picture…

( Nbre of Past Contacts: Not always what we expect…
           W e a lt h _ N b _ c a m p a ig n                                                             Frequenc y           F r a c tio n _ o f _ T a r g e t

   80 0 ,0 00                                                                                                                                                                  7 .0 %
                                  688083
   70 0 ,0 00                                                                                                                                                                  6 .0 %

   60 0 ,0 00
                                                                                                                                                                               5 .0 %
   50 0 ,0 00
                                                                                                                                                                               4 .0 %
   40 0 ,0 00
                                                                                                                                                                               3 .0 %
   30 0 ,0 00
                                                                                                                                                                               2 .0 %
   20 0 ,0 00

   10 0 ,0 00                                                                                                                                                                  1 .0 %
                                                                     22387                      5536                                         1078
           0                                                                                                                                                                   0 .0 %
                                       0                               1                             2                                     3+ 4+ 5+ 6


                C r e d it _ N b _ c a m p a ig n                                                          F requenc y         F r a c tio n _ o f_ Ta r g e t

   600,000                                                                                                                                                                      2.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                1.8%
   500,000        484599
                                                                                                                                                                                1.6%

                                                                                                                                                                                1.4%
   400,000
                                                                                                                                                                                1.2%

   300,000                                                                                                                                                                      1.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                0.8%
   200,000
                                                                                                                                                                                0.6%

                                                                                                                                                                                0.4%
   100,000
                                                             50354
                                                     18408             27843   24533   33843                                                                                    0.2%
                                16205        15410                                             17213       15459                                     3159           5571
                                                                                                                      2506          1981
           0                                                                                                                                                                    0.0%
                      0            1            2      3       4           5     6       7       8           9           10           11               12         13+ 14+ 15




  Learning loop is not only for Reporting. Models can use those “feedback” measures
on contacts and channels as well. Depending on the target, it might give highly different
                                         results.
Socio-Demo combines usage and family

( Socio-demo: Type of family

               Socio_profession                                    Frequency   Fraction_of_Target

          60,000                                                                                                            1.6%


                                                                                                                            1.4%
          50,000

                                                                                                                            1.2%

          40,000

                                                                                       Lift of 3.5 on 9% of clients         1.0%


          30,000                                                                                                            0.8%


                                                                                                                            0.6%
          20,000

                                                                                                                            0.4%

          10,000
                                                                                                                            0.2%


              0                                                                                                             0.0%
                        WOR
                       Class 3    Other Values
                                   Class 1             PEN
                                                      Class   2            EMP
                                                                         Class 4                     SEL
                                                                                                    Class   6    NOP
                                                                                                                Class   5

                                    3.5 more chance to sell Y to Class 3 than to major Class




Socio-demo provided by WDM allows to include personal & family factors in the picture.
  It also creates a smooth transition from Prospects acquisition to Clients fertilization.
Methodology & critical success factors



                    Client
Business
                    360°
Knowledge
                    Data


Bank Products       RFM
Bank Processes      Events
Contact Strategy    Dynamics
Client Life cycle   Contact/Channel
Analytical data     Family/Co-Holder
                    Socio-demo

     People             People
                     Data Model &
                        Method
                                       Risk Mitigation
Methodology & critical success factors



                            Robust
                            Scalable
                            Modelling


                            Good design
                            No deploy crash
                            No black boxes
                            Good validation
                            Good recoding


  People        People
             Data Model &
                Method
                            Risk Mitigation
The Scoring task




          High probability        Low probability     Medium probability




( Task:
     Based on past experience, find a number of typical green profiles allowing to build a
     reliable proximity measure for computing probability of interest…

( Problem:
     Profile depends a lot of the variables used: how to find the best ones among many?
     What makes a real (in a statistical sense) difference?
Performance



Percentage of target
identified




              Model
              selection   ?????




              Random
              selection




                                  Percentage of selected population
Methodology & critical success factors



                    Client             Robust
Business                                                   Business
                    360°               Scalable
Knowledge                                                  Validation
                    Data               Modelling


Bank Products       RFM                Good design
                                                           Processes
Bank Processes      Events             No deploy crash
                                                           Biases
Contact Strategy    Dynamics           No black boxes
                                                           Scoring
Client Life cycle   Contact/Channel    Good validation
                                                           Joined Offers
Analytical data     Family/Co-Holder   Good recoding
                    Socio-demo

      People              People              People                People
                       Data Model &           Tool &
                          Method             Method
                                         Risk Mitigation
Business MUST be there!

( Dynamics: elapse time in months when customer acquired
  product X
         Card_Nb_Active_months_HP                                   Frequency       Fraction_of_Target   Poly. (Fraction_of_Target)

     250,000                                                                                                                                     8.0%


                                                                                                                                       203,138   7.0%
     200,000
                                                                                                                                                 6.0%


                                                                                                                                                 5.0%
     150,000

                                                                                                                                                 4.0%

     100,000
                                                                                                                                                 3.0%


                                                                                                                                                 2.0%
      50,000
                                                                                                                                                 1.0%
               2,671     2,750      1,696   1,202   1,872   1,502               2,013          1,399          1,406            1,448
          0                                                                                                                                      0.0%
                 1         2          3       4       5       6                  7+8               9            10               11       12




                                                        Something happens here.
                                 Business process: after 9 months stopped to be included in campaigns…




           Business interpretation MUST be done to eliminate business bias…
Methodology & critical success factors



                    Client             Robust
Business                                                   Business
                    360°               Scalable
Knowledge                                                  Validation
                    Data               Modelling


Bank Products       RFM                Good design
                                                           Processes
Bank Processes      Events             No deploy crash
                                                           Biases
Contact Strategy    Dynamics           No black boxes
                                                           Scoring
Client Life cycle   Contact/Channel    Good validation
                                                           Joined Offers
Analytical data     Family/Co-Holder   Good recoding
                    Socio-demo

      People              People              People                People
                       Data Model &           Tool &
                          Method             Method
                                         Risk Mitigation
Methodology & critical success factors



                    Client             Robust
Business                                                   Business
                    360°               Scalable                              Industria-lization
Knowledge                                                  Validation
                    Data               Modelling


Bank Products       RFM                Good design
                                                           Processes          Fast deploy
Bank Processes      Events             No deploy crash
                                                           Biases             Reliable scores
Contact Strategy    Dynamics           No black boxes
                                                           Scoring            Alarm attention
Client Life cycle   Contact/Channel    Good validation
                                                           Joined Offers      Watch Oldness
Analytical data     Family/Co-Holder   Good recoding
                                                                              “All inclusive”
                    Socio-demo

      People              People              People                People
                       Data Model &           Tool &                                Tool &
                          Method             Method                                 Method
                                         Risk Mitigation
Agenda

( Citi in Belgium

( Vadis Consulting sa

( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature
  client?

( Methodology & Tools

( Making things operational
Full Process

External data


                  Model 1


Analytical
Datamart
                  Model 2                 Exclusion
                                          Exclusion                 Optimization
                                                                    Optimization                   P of C

                              Results_                Trusted_                     Propositions_
                    …




                              current                 Repository_                     current
                                                      current
                 Model X

                                                        Direct
                                                       Marketing




                Operational          Campaign
                                     & response                            Results Exclusion Propositions
                                                                           _History _History   History
Industrialization


              Model 1


Analytical
Datamart
             Model 2                      Exclusion
                                          Exclusion                   Optimization
                                                                      Optimization                   P of C

                                                                                     Propositions_
               …




                           Results_                     Trusted_
                           current                      Repository_                     current
              Model X                                   current


              Model Z                                                    Direct
                                      Control Process                   Marketing



                                Data Drift     Score Drift



       When the process needs to be scaled up, important that as much as possible is
   parameterized. An automated control process for the correctness of the models needs
               to be in place with only manual intervention when required.
Agenda

( Citi in Belgium

( Vadis Consulting sa

( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature
  client?

( Methodology & Tools

( Making things operational

( Business Added Value
Business Added Value



     Product C     1
     Product B     1
     Product A     1

                 X-sell
Business Added Value



     Product C     1
     Product B     2
     Product A     2

                 X-sell   Upsell   Retention
Business Added Value



     Product C     1        1
     Product B     3
     Product A     3        1         1

                 X-sell   Upsell   Retention
Business Added Value



     Product C     1        1
     Product B     4
     Product A     4        1         1

                 X-sell   Upsell   Retention
Business Added Value



       Product C            1          1
       Product B            4
       Product A            4          1         1

                          X-sell   Upsell    Retention
                                                                   ?????




 1) Direct Marketing strategy (product driven) is adapted according to propensity
        to buy scores, by doing the right offer, increasing your response and
               this at the right time, maintaining your contact capital.
Conclusion




       Manage life cycle       Better targetting
       of your customer    Optimize contact strategy
                                     and
                             Improve profitability

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Citibank

  • 1. Greet Maris Thierry Van de Merckt Head of CRM Group Project Manager Succesvol, efficiënt en operationeel management van de customer life-cycle Une gestion efficace et performante du cycle clients 24.03 .09 IM A GIBR AINE
  • 2. Agenda ( Citi in Belgium ( Vadis Consulting sa ( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature client? ( Methodology & Tools ( Making things operational ( Business Added Value
  • 3. Citi in the world ( World-wide financial services company organized into : Institutional Client Group & Corporate Consumer Banking Global Wealth Management – Private Banking Global Cards Group ( Present in + 100 countries ( Servicing 200 million customer accounts ( By over 300.000 employees
  • 4. Citi in Belgium Consumer Banking with specific focus on consumer credit Customers : 560.000 Employees : 1500 Points of sales : 212
  • 6. Consumer Banking in Belgium BIG 4 + 85% market share Challengers
  • 7. Who is VADIS Our objective is to leverage internal and external data for our clients in order for them to gain a significant competitive advantage, in terms of market expansion, enterprise profitability and global risk reduction. ( VADIS Consulting sa/nv Founded Jan 2004, as the preferred analytic partner of WDMLocated in WDM building, Brussels Focuses on the implementation of Analytical Solutions Software development & innovation (45% of turnover in R&D) 17 high level consultants and developers in this field Very active in B2B analytical world Consulting & Integration activity as well
  • 8. Agenda ( Citi in Belgium ( Vadis Consulting sa ( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature client?
  • 9. Managing Customer Life Cycle ( From prospect … to client … to your best client Anticipate Understand & Manage How to keep a growing process, where more and more information can be captured, where a lot different interactions and events will influence the life cycle, still to be efficient and operational?
  • 10. Capture Consumer Life Cycle Family / Demographic Market Situation Acquisition Events Events Events Events Interactions Product Usage Portfolio Defining elements describing life cycle is joint effort from external data provider, marketeer, product manager and sales person, so that there is a fertilization cross interactions and cross product lines.
  • 11. Capture Consumer Life Cycle ( Think big ( Variables are based on RFM+ ( Data driven approach Data dictionary – clear definitions Data audit Updates and historisation In order to allow industrialization of full process, based on this data driven approach, important to have the data updated and historized.
  • 12. Agenda ( Citi in Belgium ( Vadis Consulting sa ( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature client? ( Methodology & Tools
  • 13. Methodology & critical success factors Client Business 360° Knowledge Data Bank Products RFM Bank Processes Events Contact Strategy Dynamics Client Life cycle Contact/Channel Analytical data Family/Co-Holder Socio-demo 1.500 computed variables account for the life-cycle stage of each client. It’s a generic container for all predictive models, analysis and contact strategy design.
  • 14. Events are combined within models (not outside) ( Event X: Age in months of the measured event since last run of the model CARD_Cash_LastAge Frequency Fraction_of_Target 70,000 2.5% 63,598 60,000 Chance for a client 2.0% 50,000 to be interested by 1.5% 40,000 our offer 30,000 Number of clients 1.0% 20,000 having the computed 0.5% 10,000 characteristic 3,091 2,701 2,819 4,536 0 0.0% -1 No event 0 1+2 3+4+5 6+7+8+9+10+11
  • 15. Events are combined within models (not outside) ( Event X: Age in months of the measured event since last run of the model CARD_Cash_LastAge Frequency Fraction_of_Target 70,000 2.5% 63,598 60,000 2.0% 50,000 40,000 Lift of 4.8 on 4% of clients 1.5% 30,000 1.0% 20,000 0.5% 10,000 3,091 2,701 2,819 4,536 0 0.0% -1 No event 0 1+2 3+4+5 6+7+8+9+10+11 4.8 more chance to sell Y if proposed within the month of event X Events are captured from operational systems, transformed in the analytical datamart, and used with 10 other variables to get a lift of 7.9 on the top 5% cases.
  • 16. Contact Strategy is part of the picture… ( Nbre of Past Contacts: Not always what we expect… W e a lt h _ N b _ c a m p a ig n Frequenc y F r a c tio n _ o f _ T a r g e t 80 0 ,0 00 7 .0 % 688083 70 0 ,0 00 6 .0 % 60 0 ,0 00 5 .0 % 50 0 ,0 00 4 .0 % 40 0 ,0 00 3 .0 % 30 0 ,0 00 2 .0 % 20 0 ,0 00 10 0 ,0 00 1 .0 % 22387 5536 1078 0 0 .0 % 0 1 2 3+ 4+ 5+ 6 C r e d it _ N b _ c a m p a ig n F requenc y F r a c tio n _ o f_ Ta r g e t 600,000 2.0% 1.8% 500,000 484599 1.6% 1.4% 400,000 1.2% 300,000 1.0% 0.8% 200,000 0.6% 0.4% 100,000 50354 18408 27843 24533 33843 0.2% 16205 15410 17213 15459 3159 5571 2506 1981 0 0.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+ 14+ 15 Learning loop is not only for Reporting. Models can use those “feedback” measures on contacts and channels as well. Depending on the target, it might give highly different results.
  • 17. Socio-Demo combines usage and family ( Socio-demo: Type of family Socio_profession Frequency Fraction_of_Target 60,000 1.6% 1.4% 50,000 1.2% 40,000 Lift of 3.5 on 9% of clients 1.0% 30,000 0.8% 0.6% 20,000 0.4% 10,000 0.2% 0 0.0% WOR Class 3 Other Values Class 1 PEN Class 2 EMP Class 4 SEL Class 6 NOP Class 5 3.5 more chance to sell Y to Class 3 than to major Class Socio-demo provided by WDM allows to include personal & family factors in the picture. It also creates a smooth transition from Prospects acquisition to Clients fertilization.
  • 18. Methodology & critical success factors Client Business 360° Knowledge Data Bank Products RFM Bank Processes Events Contact Strategy Dynamics Client Life cycle Contact/Channel Analytical data Family/Co-Holder Socio-demo People People Data Model & Method Risk Mitigation
  • 19. Methodology & critical success factors Robust Scalable Modelling Good design No deploy crash No black boxes Good validation Good recoding People People Data Model & Method Risk Mitigation
  • 20. The Scoring task High probability Low probability Medium probability ( Task: Based on past experience, find a number of typical green profiles allowing to build a reliable proximity measure for computing probability of interest… ( Problem: Profile depends a lot of the variables used: how to find the best ones among many? What makes a real (in a statistical sense) difference?
  • 21. Performance Percentage of target identified Model selection ????? Random selection Percentage of selected population
  • 22. Methodology & critical success factors Client Robust Business Business 360° Scalable Knowledge Validation Data Modelling Bank Products RFM Good design Processes Bank Processes Events No deploy crash Biases Contact Strategy Dynamics No black boxes Scoring Client Life cycle Contact/Channel Good validation Joined Offers Analytical data Family/Co-Holder Good recoding Socio-demo People People People People Data Model & Tool & Method Method Risk Mitigation
  • 23. Business MUST be there! ( Dynamics: elapse time in months when customer acquired product X Card_Nb_Active_months_HP Frequency Fraction_of_Target Poly. (Fraction_of_Target) 250,000 8.0% 203,138 7.0% 200,000 6.0% 5.0% 150,000 4.0% 100,000 3.0% 2.0% 50,000 1.0% 2,671 2,750 1,696 1,202 1,872 1,502 2,013 1,399 1,406 1,448 0 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+8 9 10 11 12 Something happens here. Business process: after 9 months stopped to be included in campaigns… Business interpretation MUST be done to eliminate business bias…
  • 24. Methodology & critical success factors Client Robust Business Business 360° Scalable Knowledge Validation Data Modelling Bank Products RFM Good design Processes Bank Processes Events No deploy crash Biases Contact Strategy Dynamics No black boxes Scoring Client Life cycle Contact/Channel Good validation Joined Offers Analytical data Family/Co-Holder Good recoding Socio-demo People People People People Data Model & Tool & Method Method Risk Mitigation
  • 25. Methodology & critical success factors Client Robust Business Business 360° Scalable Industria-lization Knowledge Validation Data Modelling Bank Products RFM Good design Processes Fast deploy Bank Processes Events No deploy crash Biases Reliable scores Contact Strategy Dynamics No black boxes Scoring Alarm attention Client Life cycle Contact/Channel Good validation Joined Offers Watch Oldness Analytical data Family/Co-Holder Good recoding “All inclusive” Socio-demo People People People People Data Model & Tool & Tool & Method Method Method Risk Mitigation
  • 26. Agenda ( Citi in Belgium ( Vadis Consulting sa ( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature client? ( Methodology & Tools ( Making things operational
  • 27. Full Process External data Model 1 Analytical Datamart Model 2 Exclusion Exclusion Optimization Optimization P of C Results_ Trusted_ Propositions_ … current Repository_ current current Model X Direct Marketing Operational Campaign & response Results Exclusion Propositions _History _History History
  • 28. Industrialization Model 1 Analytical Datamart Model 2 Exclusion Exclusion Optimization Optimization P of C Propositions_ … Results_ Trusted_ current Repository_ current Model X current Model Z Direct Control Process Marketing Data Drift Score Drift When the process needs to be scaled up, important that as much as possible is parameterized. An automated control process for the correctness of the models needs to be in place with only manual intervention when required.
  • 29. Agenda ( Citi in Belgium ( Vadis Consulting sa ( How to capture Client Life Cycle from prospect to mature client? ( Methodology & Tools ( Making things operational ( Business Added Value
  • 30. Business Added Value Product C 1 Product B 1 Product A 1 X-sell
  • 31. Business Added Value Product C 1 Product B 2 Product A 2 X-sell Upsell Retention
  • 32. Business Added Value Product C 1 1 Product B 3 Product A 3 1 1 X-sell Upsell Retention
  • 33. Business Added Value Product C 1 1 Product B 4 Product A 4 1 1 X-sell Upsell Retention
  • 34. Business Added Value Product C 1 1 Product B 4 Product A 4 1 1 X-sell Upsell Retention ????? 1) Direct Marketing strategy (product driven) is adapted according to propensity to buy scores, by doing the right offer, increasing your response and this at the right time, maintaining your contact capital.
  • 35. Conclusion Manage life cycle Better targetting of your customer Optimize contact strategy and Improve profitability