Chaos theory proposes that seemingly random events may actually arise from deterministic systems and can be predicted. It views organizations as complex systems with nonlinear relationships between variables. Applying chaos theory to organizational crises suggests that: 1) small changes can have large effects; 2) long-term predictions are impossible but short-term are feasible; 3) crises may arise from bifurcation points where outcomes oscillate. Chaos theory provides an alternative lens for analyzing unpredictable crisis events in organizations.

1. Chaos Theory An Alternative Paradigm in the Study of Organization Crises Sukanda Panpetch

2. Introduction. C haos theory is the study of nonlinear dynamics, where seemingly random but it’s have orders and events are actually predictable from simple deterministic equations. In social science chaos theory is revolution of complexity ideas system. This revolution began with a set of ideas having to do with disorder in nature and social behavior.

3. C haos theory is rooted in mathematics and the natural sciences, but the bestselling book by James Gleick made chaos theory understandable to those outside the mathematics and physics disciplines. Shortly thereafter, social, scientists, organizational scholars, and psychologists became interested in chaos theory and could be used as a lens for understanding the complex social and psychological interactions that make up these disciplines. Chaos theory is an alternative paradigm in the study of organization crises as a metaphor to explain phenomena. Introduction.

4. The appeal of chaos theory. T he appeal of chaos theory has been likened to a romantic appreciation of disorder and could be used as a lens for viewing organizations and seek to find order emerging in systems that may not exhibit a clear sense of cause and effect thus Chaos is a state whereby phenomena that appear to be unrelated actually follow an unknown or hidden pattern chaos used as metaphors to explain organizational phenomena of a nonmathematical nature. Morgan Gareth was a key player and Following this lead, others have encouraged the use of chaos theory as a metaphor in the study of organizational phenomena as well.

5. The Malden Mill Fire

6. The incident viewed through chaos theory. 1- sensitive dependence to intial conditions. 2- the inability to predict occurrences for the long run. 3- the presence of bifurcations. 4- a phenomenon known as a strange attractor. 5- behavior that is nonlinear. 6- the presence of positive feedback. All important concepts conditions in chaos theory.

7. S ensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions Components of chaos theory. Edward Lorenz noted that a slight change in the initial input of data can lead to vastly different results. This now famous occurrence led to the popular "butterfly effect" illustration. The key to unlocking chaos theory: A slight change in initial conditions can lead to a vastly different outcome in the system.

8. Components of chaos theory. U npredictability in the Long Run The behavior of a chaotic system cannot be predicted in the long run. At best, there may be some accuracy in short-term predictions. The predicting in the long-ran is impossible, but short-run predictions are possible.

9. Components of chaos theory. B ifurcations A bifurcation is a point in the behavior of the system where the outcome can actually oscillate between two possible values in alternating time periods. Chaos theorists call this period doubling. Two possible outcomes in alternating time periods when a chaotic state is reached and then the system continued to move in and out of chaos because bifurcations can change the system suddenly, causing it to behave in a difference way.

10. Components of chaos theory. A ttractors In chaos theory, an attractor is a pattern that forms the behavior of a nonlinear system, that is, the different states throught various points in time. Four types of attractors have been identified: point, pendulum, torus, and strange. Attractors are the behavior of the system follows a pattern through time.

11. Components of chaos theory. N onlinear Nonlinear systems have relationships among variables that are not linear and may be curvilinear, U-shaped, S-shaped, or any combination of these. Chaotic systems are nonlinear and do not have the predictability for variables that linear systems have. The natural world and the social world behave in a nonlinear fashion, chaos theory offers a suitable perspective for examining these systems. f(x+y) ≠ f(x)+f(y)

12. Components of chaos theory. F eedback Two concepts of feedback mush be presented: negative and potsitive. Negative feedback occurs when the system returns to a steady or normal state and Positive feedback, on the other hand, amplifies deviations until a chaotic state is reached. Negative feedback is returns to a steady or normal state,, Positive feedback is amplifies deviations.

13. Components of chaos theory. S elf-Organization This term describes the chaotic system's ability to change itself into a new form without intervention from forces outside the system. The concept posits that a chaotic stage is necessary before a new system can emerge. Self-Organization is changing to the organization are usually inevitable after a crisis hits.

14. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. C risis is part of a larger system that is displaying chaotic behavior. it is more accurate to start with the assumption that all organizations currently reside in chaotic systems. This perspective is reflected by Richard Pascale

15. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. S ensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions It is often because of a sensitive slight detail but vastly different way. ValuJet Flight 592

16. Unpredictability in the Long Run Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.

17. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. Bifurcations

18. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. Attractor Red river valley flood

19. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. Nonlinear

20. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. Feedback

21. Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises. Self-Organization Red river valley flood

22. Implications for Research and Management. F rom a research perspective, chaos theory offers an alternate framework for analyzing organizational crisis, one that can be used to supplement traditional (i.e., linear) perspectives as a useful tool when complex phenomena such as crisis events are analyzed. 1. Little things do matter in relation to an organizational crisis. 2. Long-term predictions of future crises are difficult to make, but short-term predictions are more feasible and necessary for crisis vulnerability assessment. next-

23. Implications for Research and Management. 3. Bifurcations represent key turning point whereby the crisis can be brought under control or can escalate out of control. Management's responsibility is important. 4. There are hidden patterns (i.e., attractors) in almost everything, including the causes of a crisis and the way it is managed. 5. A certain amount of order and disorder is natural and even healthy for the organization. next-

24. Implications for Research and Management. 6. Finding the cause of a crisis may be more difficult than originally anticipated. Isolating a single cause for every crisis is neither practical nor appropriate. 7. The concept of positive feedback in chaos theory is not a good thing. Negative feedback helps keep the organization at equilibrium. 8. Whether management realizes it or not, the organization is changing constantly.

25. Limitations of the Use of Chaos Theory 1. Chaos theory has been overly enthusiastically endorsed as a "cure-all" in organizational research applications. 2. There are some significant semantic misunderstandings of the word chaos. 3. The inability to forecast long-term events does not mean standard operating procedures and strategic planning should be abandoned.