Pakistan's economy has declined significantly since 2008 due to security concerns from its role in the War on Terror and capital flight. GDP growth has slowed and unemployment has increased. Afghanistan's economic woes include a GDP heavily reliant on international aid and the opium trade, high unemployment, and underutilized agricultural land. After US withdrawal, it is likely the Taliban will regain control of Afghanistan, and there is a possibility the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban could eventually unite.
Pakistan – the problems and solutions regarding terrorism and 4thGWZaid Hamid
4th Generation War is the latest weapon being deployed against the Muslim world to dismember Muslim countries in the greater middle east. This mode of War fare is least understood by the policy makers, leaders, and the media. Here BrassTacks brings a comprehensive presentation for the policy makers on this illusive subject.
This slide covers the USA foreign Policy about Afghanistan and Pakistan from Bush era to Obama era. Your feedbacks are welcomed on mjf110@gmail.com
+92-313-3132995
Pakistan – the problems and solutions regarding terrorism and 4thGWZaid Hamid
4th Generation War is the latest weapon being deployed against the Muslim world to dismember Muslim countries in the greater middle east. This mode of War fare is least understood by the policy makers, leaders, and the media. Here BrassTacks brings a comprehensive presentation for the policy makers on this illusive subject.
This slide covers the USA foreign Policy about Afghanistan and Pakistan from Bush era to Obama era. Your feedbacks are welcomed on mjf110@gmail.com
+92-313-3132995
National security is a state or condition where our most cherished values and beliefs, our democratic way of life, our institutions of governance and our unity, welfare and well-being as a nation and people are permanently protected and continuously enhanced
NARENDRA MODI’S AND XI JINPING’S HISTORIC ROLES AMID THREATS AND CHALLENGESKeshav Prasad Bhattarai
Includes- Contradictions in India and China Relations ,India and China: Living with the Common Threats of Terrorism and Joint Responsibility of Modi and Jinping
The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens-security of life & property, the standard of living, political empowerment
For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies. Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country
This presentation is an attempt to explain how the foreign policy of Pakistan is shaped, history, successes & failures, as well as challenges
Before going further, you are advised to read Part 1 of this series for acquainting yourself with theoretical aspects of foreign policy
Introduction Of Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy Making Agencies Of Pakistan
Determinants Of Foreign Policy
Principles Of Foreign Policy
Objectives Of Foreign Policy
Salient Features Of Foreign Policy
Conclusion
National security is a state or condition where our most cherished values and beliefs, our democratic way of life, our institutions of governance and our unity, welfare and well-being as a nation and people are permanently protected and continuously enhanced
NARENDRA MODI’S AND XI JINPING’S HISTORIC ROLES AMID THREATS AND CHALLENGESKeshav Prasad Bhattarai
Includes- Contradictions in India and China Relations ,India and China: Living with the Common Threats of Terrorism and Joint Responsibility of Modi and Jinping
The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens-security of life & property, the standard of living, political empowerment
For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies. Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country
This presentation is an attempt to explain how the foreign policy of Pakistan is shaped, history, successes & failures, as well as challenges
Before going further, you are advised to read Part 1 of this series for acquainting yourself with theoretical aspects of foreign policy
Introduction Of Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy Making Agencies Of Pakistan
Determinants Of Foreign Policy
Principles Of Foreign Policy
Objectives Of Foreign Policy
Salient Features Of Foreign Policy
Conclusion
Clearly global warning is inevitable and hence water problems in the sub-continent will get further exacerbated.
We can only hope to mitigate effects by early and meaningful co-operation.
We suffer from a knowledge deficit about the state of the glaciers and on changing monsoon patterns.
We know even less about our groundwater resources. Aquifers have no borders.
What can be done together?
India’s Adivasi problem at Claws - Presentation by Mohan Guruswamyavidas
India's War on India
Adivasi is an umbrella term for a heterogeneous set of ethnic
and tribal groups believed to be the aboriginal people of India.
They form about 7% of Indian population. In the past, most tribals were able to cover most of the shortfall with foods gathered from the forests. Forest degradation and curtailed forest access has reduced the availability of natural foods, compelling these communities, to depend more on purchased foods to meet their minimum
survival needs. This has lead to unrest.
THIS IS A TRANSCRIPT OF A TALK GIVEN AT A CONFERENCE ON CENTRAL ASIA AT JAMIA MILLIA SPONSORED BY THE MEA.
Is India going to be the new China? If I had to terminate this discussion I would say no because the gap is huge and open now. It might be very difficult because the kind of political consensus in the last few years that we have and the way we conduct our internal affairs and manage our economy. China is the world’s largest GDP now in terms of PPP terms. It is almost 19 trillion dollars which is astounding. If you project this to 2050 you would be looking at over 60 trillion and an Indian GDP would be 45 trillion.
We are entering a period of exponential growth. It is another thing that wealth does not get distributed in China and India. It is concentrated in a few hands. China has slowed down and I will discuss it later. It has posted per Capita GDP of almost below 8000. This is India here. 8 trillion dollars in PPP terms. That is where a little controversy when PM Modi suddenly started quoting PPP figures. It always sounds much bigger then the normal GDP which is. In GDP terms we are now third in terms of PPP just below USA. China is first. This is how we strike up in the world. China is almost three times our size and United States and this how the world is going to transit.
This is what excites people, excites people who are looking for investment opportunities in India, excites people like me who are not going to be around 2050 to see if we have made the tryst to destiny. What is being projected is our GDP of 3.7 billion of 2009 will move on to 43 trillion in 2050. US becomes smaller than India. The complete ranking in the world will change. If you look at United Kingdom it will be no. 10, Italy will be no. 15, Saudi Arabia 19, Russia is no. 6. The top two countries will be Asian countries. This is the projected growth on the other side. Vietnam will be no. 1, India will be no. 2, Nigeria will be no. 3. It is all unbelievable.
When I was doing my dissertation in 1984 I had proposed to my supervisor that I would do my work on future projection on economies. Lotus had just introduced spreadsheets and you could put in numbers and have different growth rates and come out with astounding figures. One day I was playing around in the computation lab in the Kennedy School of government at Harvard and I was putting in the figures in the computer. I was getting astounding results for 25 years, 30 years, 50 years. Some of it looked like real at that time. So when I proposed it to my supervisor who was a famous economist, he asked me not to do this and do something practical. You think India and China will actually reach the top , dominating the world and making the big noise? Forget it.... it is not going to happen or going to happen in my lifetime. So I did my dissertation on the Presidential decision making which is a totally different subject. I wish I had done it then. I would have been a famous man....
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan Th.docxalfred4lewis58146
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan
The second largest country in South Asia is Pakistan, which has volatile country in every sense of the world. Pakistan’s
economy is growing. Its agricultural sector exports rice to other countries. Also, the manufacturing sector is expanding.
Although these are hopeful signs, Pakistan has many issues that hinder making improvements in the lives of its people. First,
Pakistan, predominantly a Muslim country, is locked in a costly
rivalry with India, which has Hindu majority. (It is important to
note that Pakistan too has conflict between Sunni and Shi’ite
Muslims – the two main branches of Islam.) As you recall,
Pakistan came to being after Britain’s relinquishing its control
over the Indian subcontinent. In 1949, the subcontinent was
partitioned into Pakistan and India. Thereafter, two nations
really did not behave as neighbors in the true sense of the
world. Pakistan considers India a threat and, actually, they are
locked in a territorial dispute over Kashmir. This rivalry and
animosity has sparked a nuclear arms race and Pakistan,
despite it economic underdevelopment, is a nuclear power.
Pakistan has other threats, namely, Islamic fundamentalists who object to Pakistan’s support of the American-led war of
terror. The United States has recruited Pakistan’s help in its war in Afghanistan, which has led to infusion of American aid to
Pakistan. However, supporters of Taliban, Al Qaeda, and other radical
Islamic elements object to this relationship and has been conducting
terror campaign against the government.
Pakistan, has many socio-economic issues to grapple with. To begin with,
Pakistan’s economy is growing but not fast enough to noticeably improve
the lives of Pakistanis. Its main revenue source remains the exports of rice,
cotton textile goods and some industrial products. However, most
Pakistanis are engaged in subsistence farming. (Like other third world
countries, Pakistan has a significant “informal economy” such as street
barbering, as shown in the left.) Also, Pakistan has to deal with its
explosive population increases. Pakistan’s doubling time is 33 years,
which means, at the present rate of population increase, there will be another Pakistan in 2038. Interestingly, this Islamic
country also suffers from massive heroine addiction among its people. According to a United Nations estimate, there are
about 1.5 million heroin addicts. According to a New York Times report, “Addicts are everywhere and nowhere, easy to
overlook from a car but impossible to miss on foot. They are huddled on the sidewalk, under the bridge, behind the truck,
against the fence, along the prime begging space beside the shrine.” Why so high a heroine addiction? Pakistan is located
next to Afghanistan, which is a major heroine producing country. Also, some addicts argue that the Koran prohibits
intoxicants such as liquor but not narcotics.
Here is how one geogr.
Pakistanis can speak nearly 20 Languages
Pakistanis can speak Punjabi,Saraiki,Pashto,Sindhi,Baloehi,Kashmiri,Hindko,
Brahui,Shina,Balti,Khowar,Dhatki,Marwari,Wakhi,Burushski,Dari and English.
Pakistan receives foreign aid from several countries and international
organizations. Since the start of the War in Afghanistan, the majority of the aid
comes from the United States via the Coalition Support Fund which is
reimbursement to Pakistan for counter-terrorism operations. Foreign aid from
America has been stopped in 2018.
This is Sabina Ashurova's International Recruitment Project for the completion of the Business Achievement Awards. The country she chose was Russia. This document includes information on Russia's history, geography and wildlife, culture, politics, economy, business customs, etc.
Sino-Indian Relations and the Elephant in the Roomavidas
India and China exist in different orbits of the world economy. A slowed down China now growing at 7% still adds $490 billion to global growth, while a speeded up India, now growing at 7%, adds a mere $160 billion.
Even when the rate of Indian growth exceeds China’s by a big margin, it will be a long time before it adds more to global growth than China. Although the Chinese economy does not compete directly with India’s, the effect the former imposes on the global economy will influence the Indian economy.
Hence, whether a slowing Chinese economy will really create more opportunities for the Indian economy needs rethinking.
MEET INDIA - Paris presentation -Mohan Guruswamyavidas
Modern India now has over 2000 ethnic groups. Modern Indian languages have evolved from all the world’s four language families. Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-Asiatic and Tibeto-Burman. India has 1652 individual mother tongues. 30 languages are spoken by over a million each, and 122 by over 10,000 each.
India has almost 1.2 billion people, and the Union of India consists of 32 States and Union Territories. The biggest of these is Uttar Pradesh with a population of 199.6 million or 16.49% of India’s. It is as big as Brazil. The smallest political unit is Lakshadweep which has just 64,000 (0.01%)
In late 2012 India became the world’s third largest economy in PPP terms and has grown at an average rate of over 7.4% during 2004-14 and GDP from about $750 bn to $2 trl. Between 2008-11 it grew at more than 9%. In consonance with global trends India’s growth also has tapered off these past two years.
Clearly it’s a country of great heterogeneity, complexity and promise. Its diversity makes it unsuitable for any other form of government but a very raucous DEMOCRACY.
Mohan Guruswamy's presentation at a recent seminar on how to respond to another state sponsored terrorist attack from Pakistan. A tit for tat reaction may not dissuade Pakistan from more of it, but the GOI owes it to the Indian public to get satisfaction. Turning the other cheek is not policy.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
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#First_India_NewsPaper
1. Post 2014, Pakistan will be the only country in the
region that can play a substantial role in
Afghanistan.
No country has or can have the kind of strategic
interest in Afghanistan that Pakistan has.
But does Pakistan has the ability to play its role is
the big question?
2. 12/9/12 Mohan Guruswamy ORF 2
Pakistan’s economic crisis.
Since the beginning of 2008, Pakistan's economic outlook has taken a dramatic
downturn.
Security concerns stemming from the nation's role in the War on Terror have
created great instability and led to a decline in FDI from a height of
approximately $8 bn to $3.5bn for the current fiscal year.
Concurrently, the insurgency has forced massive capital flight from Pakistan to
the Gulf. Combined with high global commodity prices, the dual impact has
shocked Pakistan's economy, with gaping trade deficits, high inflation and a
crash in the value of the Rupee.
GDP growth has slowed down to the lowest in Asia. The savings rate has been
dropping each year. Investment has been dropping every year. Pakistan has the
second highest population growth in the world and it has a growing problem
with opportunities for young people.
A civil war in Afghanistan is unaffordable for Pakistan. A spillover of this civil
war into Pakistan is even more unaffordable.
5. “The future of Pakistan is a wildcard in considering the
trajectory of neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan’s
Northwest Frontier Province and tribal areas probably
will continue to be poorly governed and the source or
supporter of cross-border instability.
If Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025, a
broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge
and act together to erase the Durand Line, maximizing
Pashtun space at the expense of the Punjabis in Pakistan
and the Tajiks and others in Afghanistan.”
……. The US National Intelligence Council 2008 report on “Global Trends
2025”
Pakistan’s uncertain future!
12/9/12 5Mohan Guruswamy ORF
6. Son one word I have for thee,
Fear no one and no one you flee.
Pull out your sword and slay any one,
That says Pashtun and Afghan are not one.
Arabs know this and so do Romans,
Afghans are Pashtuns,
Pashtuns are Afghans……
Khushal Khan Khattak
7. Afghanistan only emerged as a country-
of-sorts in the mid-18th century, when
Ahmad Khan, later Ahmad Shah, leader
of the Abdali contingent in the Persian
army of Nadir Shah the Great, carved out
a buffer zone between Persia and a
crumbling Mughal empire in the Indian
subcontinent that was later to evolve into
a buffer zone between Czarist Russia and
British India.
Emergence of Afghanistan.
06/10/14 7Mohan Guruswamy
8. As a consequence of the May 1879 Treaty of Gandamak
after the Second Afghan War, Britain had taken control of
Afghanistan’s foreign affairs. This treaty also gave Britain
control over traditional Pashtun territory west of the
Indus including Peshawar and the Khyber Pass.
After the Panjdeh incident a joint Anglo-Russian boundary
commission, without any Afghan participation, fixed the
Afghan border with Turkestan, which was the whole of
Russian Central Asia, now Kirghizstan, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Thus, as a consequence of the competition between Britain
and Russia, a new country, the Afghanistan we know
today, was created to serve as the buffer.
How present day Afghanistan came to be.
12/9/12 8Mohan Guruswamy ORF
9. Afghanistan’s economic woes.
12/9/12 Mohan Guruswamy ORF 9
Its GDP is about $26 bn.
About 30% is due to international aid and US/ISAF spending. What will happen
after withdrawal?
Afghan exports about $2.5 bn. Of which opium accounts for $2.0 bn. Of rest
33% is to Pakistan & 25% ($154 mn.) is to India.
Afghan and Pak generate $18 bn. from heroin export.
Last year Afghanistan produced 5600 tons of opium. It earns a farmer $16000
per acre, while wheat earns him about $1600 per acre.
Afghanistan has about 30% unemployment.
It has 8 mn. acres of arable land. It uses only 1.6 now.
It produces $800 mn. of fruits and farm produce.
It has rich marble deposits.
Pakistan does not allow it trans-shipment to India, potentially its biggest
market. Consumption in India will spur demand for greater irrigation and land
use, creating huge number of jobs.
It has 1.9 mn. pcs of small arms.
10. What will happen in Afghanistan after the Americans withdraw?
That the USA will leave Afghanistan is certain. That it will do so within
the next couple of years is also as certain. The only question that
remains is how long will it remain engaged with Afghanistan and the
war on terror that it has decided is now mostly confined to the rugged
Pathan homelands?
The Russians officially withdrew from Afghanistan when they signed a
peace accord on April 14, 1988 in Geneva with the Afghan government,
Pakistan and the United States. The agreement included “non-
interference” articles supposedly protecting Afghanistan’s sovereignty
and right to self-determination.
Till the attempted coup d’état in august 1991 leading to the final
collapse of the USSR in towards the end 1991, the Russians continued to
pour in money and material amounting to almost $300 million a
month. Najibullah’s government kept fighting beating back onslaughts
on Jalalabad, Herat and Kandahar. After Mikhail Gorbachev resigned
on Christmas day in 1991, Russian funding ceased almost immediately
11. The point is that as long money kept flowing in, and $300 million a
month is an amazing burn rate even by today’s standards, Najibullah
was able to retain control over the government in Kabul. How long
Hamid Karzai keeps going after the US withdrawal really depends on
how long the purse strings will be open. There are something’s even
America cannot afford these days.
As far as one can see now it seems inevitable that once again the
Taliban will rule an Afghanistan that is mostly the Pashtun territory
west of the Durand Line with its capital in Kabul. Then what?
There is a Pashtun Taliban in NWFP and FATA that is even now
waging a jihad against Pakistan.
Whatever else the Pakistani military may want, it doesn’t want a
Talibanized Pakistan. To this extent there is a commonality between
Pakistani and Indian interests.
But how long will it be before the two Pashtun Taliban’s unite to
become one nation once again?
12. Since 1990, 34 new countries have been created. The
dissolution of the USSR and Yugoslavia in the early 1990s
caused the creation of most of the newly independent.
USSR and Yugolavia gave us 22 new countries.
New CountriesThirteen other countries became
independent through a variety of reasons
Last was South Sudan peacefully seceded from
Sudan following a January 2011 referendum. Sudan
itself was the first to recognize South Sudan and did
so one day early, on July 8, 2011.
13. Does India has any strategic interest in Afghanistan?
Afghanistan’s two most relevant neighbors are Pakistan and
Iran. India has no access.
We read history seriously. We are not about to repeat what
happened to others.
Afghanistan is Pakistan’s problem. We will be quite happy to
let it keep you busy. You created the problems by getting
involved after the USSR left. You must pick up the pieces
now.
We see the partition of Afghanistan as inevitable. The
historical processes are rolling and cannot be stopped. Can
Pakistan stem the tide of nationalism? It has failed in the
past. Bigger and more powerful countries have not been able
to stem that tide.
14. Does India have any economic interest in Afghanistan?
One will have to scratch ones head very hard to find any,
except for a fondness for Afghan melons in Delhi
This talk of a $10 billion investment in an iron ore and steel
plant is extravagant, to say the least.
India produces 120 million tons of steel each year and there
is a glut in India. There is a world glut with Chinese
consumption slowing down.
No bank or FI in India will finance an overseas project of
this kind. I think our MEA needs a primary lesson in
business economics.
15. 06/10/14 Centre for Policy Alternatives 15
Raison d'état.
(For the good of the country)
The practice is first seen as being employed by France under the direction
of its Chief Minister Cardinal Richelieu in the Thirty Years' War (1618-48)
when it intervened on the Protestant side, despite its own Catholicism, to
block the increasing power of the Holy Roman Emperor.
At Richelieu's prompting, Jean de Silhon* defended the concept of reason
of state as "a mean between what conscience permits and affairs require.”
*A French philosopher and politician. He was a founding member, and the first to occupy seat 24 of the Académie
Française in 1634.
16. India has the world’s second largest Muslim
population.
A strong and modern Pakistan is a buffer against
the turmoil of the region west of it, near and far.
It is in India’s interest to have a prosperous and
happy Pakistan.
India can also live without Pakistan as we know it
now.