Meet India!

Meet India!
1
A SHORT CONDUCTED TOUR OF THE WORLD’S MOST
COMPLEX AND ONE OF ITS FASTEST GROWING
ECONOMIES.
MOHAN GURUSWAMY
Mohan Guruswamy June 17, 2014

Meet India!
Modern India now has over 2000 ethnic groups. Modern Indian languages have
evolved from all the world’s four language families. Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-
Asiatic and Tibeto-Burman. India has 1652 individual mother tongues. The 2001
Census tells us that 30 languages are spoken by over a million each, and 122 by
over 10,000 each.
India has almost 1.2 billion people, and the Union of India consists of 32 States and
Union Territories. The biggest of these is Uttar Pradesh with a population of 199.6 million
or 16.49% of India’s. It is as big as Brazil. The smallest political unit is Lakshadweep which
has just 64,000 (0.01%). Quite clearly the omnibus term India, incidentally derived from
the name of a river that hardly flows through it, masks a diversity of nations.
In late 2012 India became the world’s third largest economy in PPP terms and has
grown at an average rate of over 7% since 2000. Between 2008-11 it grew at more than 9%.
In consonance with global trends India’s growth also has tapered off these past two years.
Clearly it’s a country of great heterogeneity and complexity. Its diversity makes it
unsuitable for any other form of government but DEMOCRACY.
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

The once and future world?
Major world economies from 0-2005.
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A history of World GDP’s (1990 $ PPP)
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The brave new world to come!
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

The world at the end of the current decade.
Mohan Guruswamy 6 June 17, 2014

Where will the next $10 trillion of GDP come from?
-WORLD GDP over the past 12 months was about $65 trillion. In the year
to September 2013, global output will be about $10 trillion bigger,
according to the IMF's projections.*
-But where will that next $10 trillion be added? That depends on the size of
a country's economy, its growth rate and the appreciation of its real
exchange rate. Focusing on any one of those things, to the exclusion of the
others, can be a misleading guide to a market's potential.
-For example, China's economy in 2013 will still be smaller than America's.
But because it is growing so fast, it will add $1.65 trillion compared to
America's $1.43 trillion. Japan—a slow-growing economy—will contribute
$410 billion, less than Russia ($698 billion) or Brazil ($461 billion). But
because Japan is so big, it will still contribute more than India ($392
billion).
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

Goldman Sachs predictions of GDP’s till 2050.
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The stuff our dreams are made off?
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Source: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf

BRIC’s will be bigger than G-6 by 2050.
(In 2003 US $ bns.)
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WGDP growth since 2004.

Whatever happened to Japan?
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The story of the pyramids.

Why everybody is excited about India?

India’s late surge!

India’s burgeoning middle-class.
17

China’s aging problem.
It will get old before it gets rich.
Life expectancy has more than doubled from 35 in 1949 to 75 today, a
miraculous achievement. Meanwhile, the fertility rate has plummeted to 1.5 or
lower, far below the 2.1 needed to keep a population stable.
Cai Fang, a demographer at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says the
country will have moved from labour surplus to labour shortage at the fastest
pace in history.
In 2011, its workforce shrank for the first time, years before anyone had
predicted.
Japan reached a similar turning point in about 1990. Ominously for China, that
was just before its economy sank into two stagnant decades. By then, its living
standards were already at nearly 90 per cent of US levels. In purchasing power
parity terms, China’s per capita income is still below 20 per cent.
“There’s now no doubt,” says Professor Cai. “China will be old before it is rich.”

India’s growing workforce.
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Structure of the Economy

The Poverty Map of India.
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What are India’s grim realities?
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Reality 1. 62% of agricultural land is rainfed. 64.8% of
the population is linked to agriculture for livelihood
either as cultivators or as agricultural laborers. Rural
workforce in 2001 about 250 mn.
Reality 2. In 2001, 260.3 mn or 26.1% below poverty line
of 2400 calories per day or Rs. 328 per month (rural) and
Rs.454 per month (urban).
Reality 3. 83.5% of all households (176.5 mn) below
median per capita of Rs.17,736 per annum. Income
inequality –Gini increasing.

What are India’s grim realities? - 2
23
Reality 4. Regional imbalances growing.
Reality 5. 34.6% illiterate.
Reality 6. Employment in organized sector stagnating
at around 31 mn for past 5 years. Government
employs 19.3 mn or 69%, while PSU’s & Pvt. Sector
employs only 10.65 mn.
Reality 7. Government capital expenditure for
development now down to less than 15% of budget.

Not a bad performance at all!
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Improving CAD.
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

A banking crisis ahead?
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The high cost of populism.
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A snapshot of the economic crisis.
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India’s International Trade.

The growing importance of Asia to India.

The nature of India’s International Trade.

India’s energy scenario.

A Petroleum Products Exporter!

BJP’s Main Economic Drivers.

Urbanization as an Economic Driver.
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Railways as an Economic Driver.
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The Immediate Economic Priorities.
The four critical areas to focus on are fiscal belt-tightening, improving
the business climate, complementing anti-inflation efforts and
sustaining the improvement in the current account deficit.
The deficit is forecast to come in at around 4.6% in the 2013-2014
financial year ended in March 2014, down from 4.9% in 2012-2013 and
5.8% in 2011-2012.
India recorded a Current Account Deficit of 1.70% of GDP in 2013. The
CAD/GDP ratio in India averaged -1.45% from 1980 until 2013, reaching
an all time high of 1.50% in 2003 and a record low of -4.70% in 2012. .
If the government chooses to expedite capital spending to orchestrate a
cyclical turn in the investment cycle and boost long-term growth, the
short-term casualty will be the Debt/GDP ratio,
Improving the business climate should be the anchor of the new
government's agenda.

Political Economy Constraints.
• The Modi government will be driven by its economic and
development agenda.
• India is straining to expand its domestic Savings/GDP ratio, which
has been declining in the past few years.
• It has evolved into a high subsidy regime in the past decade and it
will be difficult to roll back on this, given the nature of mandate of
the Modi government. But it will have to bite the bullet now.
• It will seek closer relationships with countries it can realize capital
inflows. Only two countries are capable of meeting India’s needs with
capital and technology. Japan and China. But Japan is not entirely a
free agent.
• India’s traditional strategic autonomy considerations will condition
it not to get into any strategic relationships.
• While the USA is an important player in geo-strategic terms, it is not
capable of the volumes of investment India needs. The USA is
habituated to being intrusive.

Key Economic Ratio’s & Long-term Trends.
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Balance of Payments & External Situation.
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Cost of Big Ticket Expansion & Modernization Plans till 2024.
 India’s largest city is Mumbai, with a population of 12.5 million, closely
followed by Delhi, with a population of 11 million. Overall, there are more
than 50 urban areas in India with a population of more than one million
people. Water and sanitation modernization. $50 billion.
 New cities program. $300 billion
 The National perspective plan envisions about 150 million acre feet (MAF)
of water storage along with building inter-links. These storages and the
interlinks will add nearly 170 million acre feet of water for beneficial uses
in India, enabling irrigation over an additional area of 35 million hectares,
generation of 40,000 MW capacity hydro power, flood control and other
benefits. Cost $60 billion.
 4000 kms of high speed railway network. $ 120 billion.
 Capital expenditure on Defence. $150 billion.
 Expansion and modernization of highway and road network. $120 billion.
 Additional 150,000 MW of power generation capacity. $800 billion.
 TOTAL: Over $1.6 trillion
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

Increasing urbanization. An economic growth
challenge & opportunity
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

Where will India’s growth come from?
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

Oil & Gas infrastructure expansion.
June 17, 2014
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Mohan Guruswamy

The implications of India’s urbanization.

Political options available to the NDA government.
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• It is capable of hard decisions, both because of the
temperament of Modi, but because it is a right of center
and market friendly government.
• It will be driven by its economic and development
priorities, and hence most likely to compromise for these
goals.
• It can reset India-China relations.
• It will reset India-Japan relations.

Thank you!
49
MOHANGURU@GMAIL.COM

Meet India!

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Meet India!