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Foreign Policy of Pakistan Part 2

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The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens-security of life & property, the standard of living, political empowerment
For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies. Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country

This presentation is an attempt to explain how the foreign policy of Pakistan is shaped, history, successes & failures, as well as challenges
Before going further, you are advised to read Part 1 of this series for acquainting yourself with theoretical aspects of foreign policy

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Foreign Policy of Pakistan Part 2

  1. 1. Shahid Hussain Raja February 14 , 2020
  2. 2.  Introduction  1947-49: Exploring the Options  1950-61:Tilting towrds West  1962-1977: Tilting towards East  1978-1988: Second Honeymoon with USA  1989-2001: The Most Sanctioned Ally  2002-2011: The Great Game-3  2012-2018: The Second Estrangement  2019-2020: The (False) Bonhomei  Features of Pakistan's Foreign Policy  Challenges and Response  Conclusion
  3. 3.  Prime objective of a state is to improve quality of life of its citizens- security of life & property, standard of living, political empowerment  For this, state formulates comprehensive set of interdependent policies. Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilising the foreign relations of a country  This presentation is an attempt to explain how the foreign policy of Pakistan is shaped, history, successes & failures, as well as challenges  Before going further, you are advised to read the Part 1 of this series for acquainting yourself with theoritical aspects of foreign policy
  4. 4.  Demands of National Interest: External Security/Internal Stability/ Economic Growth/Regional Peace/Kashmir/Water Security  Our Geostrategic Location: Confluence of South Asia, Middle East, Central Asia/China's Neighbour/Littoral State/Three Nuclear Powers  Our Geopolitical Compulsions; Chinese-American Rivalry/American- Iranian Standoff/Indian hegemonic designs/Afghan War  Our Geoeconomic Significance: Trade Corridor/Pipeline Corridor/ Labour Resources/Market/FDI destination
  5. 5.  Our Colonial Past: Westren linkages/Inclinations of Ruling Elite/ Westren educated opinion makers/Our diaspora  Sociocultural Structure: Islamic foundations/Religious affinity/ Shia-Sunni Divide/  Our Development/Trade Imperatives: Sources of imports/ export destination/Technology needs  Global Trends/ Events: Going with the flow/ Climate Change/SDGs/Globalisation/Superpowers rivalry
  6. 6.  No country issues a formal documented version of its foreign policy. It issues various statements, carries out different activites and takes/refuses to take decisions on any matter requiring attention  These statements, activities & decisions are result of countless meetings & lot of paperwork by multiple stakeholders. While the parliament is the supreme authority, foreign office coordinates it  However, analysts and acedemia sift out patterns of relations and behaviour from this and describe it as the foreign policy of country  This provides us clues to the formulation of forein policy process in Pakistan also-an iterative process involving multiple stakeholders
  7. 7.  Any issue requiring action is first examined by the concerned ministry which solicits the opinions of other stakeholders  After examination, it lists the options and recommends its prefered option with cogent reasons to cabinet through foreign office for recording its observations en route.  Elected representatives discuss these options and suggestion of the foreign office in select committees/cabinet meetings  Once an option is approved, the statement is issued/action taken as the response of the state to that issue
  8. 8.  Article 40 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan outlines a number of principles that guide Pakistan’s foreign policy for all times to come. This article states that: “The State shall endeavour to preserve and strengthen fraternal relations among Muslim countries based on Islamic unity, support the common interests of the people of Asia, Africa and Latin America, promote international peace and security, foster goodwill and friendly relations among all nations and encourage the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means.”
  9. 9.  Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all States  Non-interference in the internal affairs of other State  Non-aggression  Peaceful settlement of disputes  Mutual cooperation
  10. 10.  Promoting Pakistan as dynamic, progressive, moderate, democratic Islamic country.  Developing friendly relations with all countries,especially major powers/ neighbours.  Safeguarding national security and geo-strategic interests, including Kashmir.  Consolidating our commercial/economic cooperation with international community.  Safeguarding the interests of Pakistani Diaspora abroad.  Ensuring optimal utilization of national resources for regional/global cooperation.
  11. 11.  Resource Deficiency: Dismal conomic conditions, reconstruction/ development  Defence Needs: Immediate outbreak of hostilities needed equipment and training  Regional Isolation: Pakistan suffered sense of isolation; Muslim countries suspicious, other countries ignorant, neighbours hostile  Moscow Option: Moscow's inclination towards India, no embassy opened delay of date setting for visit to Moscow of the PM  China Option: China struggling from pangs of revolution-not able to assist  American Option: Best option-super power of the day, could meet all the above three needs.Invitation of USA to visit -prompt finalisation/great welcome-
  12. 12.  Leadership Preferences: West-oriented due to education, public against infidel communist China and USSR, businesses favoured West  External Security: War over Kashmir plus Afghanistan’s hostility; need for latest weaponry necessitated the friendship with the west.  Budgetary Solvency: Economic/food crisis of 1950/51.Timely offer of USA of one-million-ton wheat built a lot of goodwill  Resource Deficiency: Economic development requiring huge resource- only country which could help was USA-hence the tilt
  13. 13.  Cooperation: February 1954-Pakistan started developing close cooperation with Turkey, later expanded to include other allies  Pacts: May 1954-US Pakistan Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement, September 1954, Pakistan joined SEATO), September 1955-Baghdad Pact, renamed CENTO  Joint Exercises: Pakistan armed forces participated in several joint military exercises with the westren countries  Base: March 1959-Pakistan leased out Badaber, near Peshawar, for ten years under Bilateral Agreement of Cooperation with USA
  14. 14.  Economic Assistance: Grant of $ 650 million, credit facilities worth $ 55 million gave great boost to Pakistan's faltering economy.  Advisory Group: U.S. Military Assistance Advisory Group set up to advise on modernisation of armed forces and security arrangements.  Equipment: Several divisions were reequipped, few new ones were raised, restructuring of defence system/came handy in subsequent wars with India  Training: Training facilities improved and Pakistan military officers were sent to the United States on different training courses;  Recognition & Image: Pakistan became an important member of westren lobby and got prominence at regional/global stage
  15. 15.  Compromised its Principles: Pakistan's independent foreign policy was compromised; its image as vassal state of the USA emerged  Communist World Antagonism: Relations with Communist world suffered heavily; except China, we did not enjoy good relations with any East European country  Muslim World Alienation: Except for Iran and Turkey. Middle Eastern states responded negatively to Pakistan's security ties with the West.
  16. 16.  Exclusion from NAM: Pakistan an active member of Bandung Conference was excluded because of its participation in defence pacts  Institutional Imbalance: Pakistan had already inherited an over- developed military machine, American military aid further strengthened their power, resulting in the derailment of democratic train at the start of the journey.  Faustian Bargain with USA: Despite Pakistan's full support,USA never extended enough diplomatic support to Pakistan in its problems with India and used Pakistan for its own objectives with disastrous results
  17. 17.  U-2 Incident: USSR downed US spy plane which had taken off from Badaber leased to USA for establishing a listening post. Its use as an airport for flying spy planes was quite embarrassing for Pakistan. Soviet leaders issued dire warning to Pakistan.  Change of Guards in USA: Kennedy administration, installed in January 1961, started cultivating India and projected it as a counterweight to China. Pakistan viewed this development detrimental to its national interest but to no avail.  Change of Ground Realities: Pakistan lost its importance after USA developed ICBM/submarines fitted with missiles which could be fired from anywhere  Sino-India War 1962: U.S. and several other Western states rushed weapons and military equipment to India after the Sino-Indian border war in October 1962 without any security related commitment like they did with Pakistan
  18. 18.  Pakistan-China Friendship-economic cooperation/ border dispute resolution/diplomatic cooperation/ full support & defence equipment after 1965 war with India  Pakistan-Russia Friendship-economic cooperation/Tashkent Declaration/1971 war  Pakistan-Communist World Cooperation-Romania/ North Korea  Pakistan's abondonment of Commonwealth, SEATO & CENTO
  19. 19.  American defeat in Vietnam/quest for revenge/Removal and execution of Bhutto for not supporting CIA to dstabilise Afghanistan  USSR’s Entry in Afghanistan and use of Afghan mujahadeen trained by the ISI for fightinging against the Soviet forces by the CIA  Pakistan's full support partly fear of USSR push for warm water port and partly to avenge its support to India during 1971 War  Start of usual civilian and military aid to Pakistan
  20. 20.  American abandonment of Afghanistan-Pakistan lost its relevance  Disintegaration of the USSR/emergence of uni-polar world order with USA as the only super power-Pakistan lost its importance  Rise of Taliban in Afghanistan/rise of global terrorism-both blamed on Pakistan  Pakistan’s detonation of atom bomb prompting the USA to impose sanctions/Pakistan-the most sanctioned ally
  21. 21.  9/11 and war on terrorism resulted in catapulting of Pakistan as the front line ally of the West again-relevance  Pakistan as cheapest and safest transit route for arms and supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan-importance  Removal of sanctions and inflow of usual civil/military assistance  Coming into power of anti-Pakistan government in Kabul/ greater influence of India, forcing Pakistan to support anti- Kabul forces/growing distrust between US-Pakistan
  22. 22.  Killing of OBL/Salalah attack/vacation of Shamsi Base used for anti- Iran activities  Pakistan's strategic relationship with China, the rising super power/CPEC/Shanghai Cooperation Organisation  American India strategic relationship to contain China  Greater Pakistan-Russia friendship  Rise of Trump in the USA/ Anti-Pakistan rhetoric/Stoppage of American aid
  23. 23.  New American plan-containment of China by using India as bulwark- need Pakistan not to pose any threat to India  Trump's desperate bid to exit Afghanistan before next election  American public's war weariness  Wooing Pakistan away from China/CPEC/Gawadar/pipelines  Emegence of China/Russia/Iran nexsus
  24. 24.  There are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies in international relations, only permanent interests  present bonhomei is just for those objectives mentioned above-Afghanistan exit, base for anti-Iran operations  Biggest lesson of history is that we seldom learn from history; Pakistan was always treated as a tactical, need-based friend  India can offer much more to the USA than Pakistan-strategic partnership to contain China
  25. 25.  Procedural Mismatch-Domination Of armed forces in Foreign Policy instead of elected representatives/foreign office  Security Interest Paramount-Result of above-preference of security over other components of national interest  Reactionary-Two Pillars of reaction against India’s moves and USA actions  Playing larger than life Role in glonbal politics- resourc constraint  Emotionalism over Real Politica-going to IMF or not? wasted crucial 07 months, unnecessay uncertainty  Implementation Inadequacies-capacity deficit
  26. 26.  Extremely difficult to assess 70 years of a policy in either or answer  Different periods have their share of successes and failure  Foreign policy is just the reflection of internal strengths and weaknesses of a country not otherway round  Overall- not bad keeping in view Pakistan's size va a vis challenges it had to face and opportunities it got-played larger than life role  Mixed bag-stellar successes in several cases, dismal failure in few
  27. 27.  Survived the traumatic first 25 years despite all odds  Economic growth- made possible by aid , trade, technology  CPEC-the game changer  Soviet Union defeat in Afghanistan  Becoming nuclear power despite all restrictions/opposition  American defeat in Afghanistan
  28. 28.  Bifurcated in two parts just after 25 years/military defeat aside, we failed before that at diplomatic front  Economic growth could have been better/dismal human development record/Failed to attract FDI  Extremely unsatisfactory global image-terrorism, nuclear proliferation  Hostility all around-India/ Bangladesh/Afghanistan/Iran
  29. 29.  Permanent Challenge- realisation of national interest objectives-security, wellbeing, regional peace, Kashmir  New global/regional geopolitical realignments-India-US strategic alliance, containment of China, Iran-US stand off  Post-NATO Afghanistan-depends how US withdraws, Vietnam style or USSR exit from Afghanistan/ different implications  Terrorism, insurgency and regional proxy wars- Pakistan cannot afford nor allow terrorist activities
  30. 30.  Attracting FDI/Increasing Exports: Pakistan desperately needs foreign investment, technology, foreign exchange  Globalization Challenges: Smooth but gainful integration of Pakistani economy with the rest of the world  Water Scarcity-Growing population, climate change leading to water scarcity creating tensions between India-Pakistan  Improving Global Image-to project Pakistan as modern, prosperous, forward looking country, tolerant society
  31. 31.  Setting house in order  Economic Growth  Strong Defence Capability  Proactive Foreign Policy  Reset USA-Pakistan Relations  Cement Pakistan-China Relations  Avoiding Arab-Iran Conflict  Reinvigorate Pakistan-Russia Relations  Reassess Pakistan-India Relations
  32. 32.  Effectiveness of foreign policy=f (domestic situation + diplomatic efforts). Divided house never generates confidence  All parties consensus on fundamentals-federal form of state, parliamentary democracy, fundamental rights etc  Institutional Strengthening-supremacy of parliament, independent judiciary, de-politicised civil/military bureaucracy,
  33. 33.  Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. Healthy growth rate over a period automatically improves image.  Let us devote our energies to economic development including human and social development for a decade and see how Pakistan gets a prominent place in the global ranking.  However, this growth process should be inclusive, and its results are shared by all. Inequitable distribution of wealth is security threat also  All out efforts to attract FDI for greater technological diffusion and smooth integration of Pakistan economy with the rest of the world.
  34. 34.  Formulation of a proactive foreign policy anchored around a broad-based national consensus on our national interest is the need of the day.  While territorial integrity and national sovereignty would remain the cornerstones of this national interest, we should now emphasize improving the quality of life of its citizens as the pivot of our foreign policy.  Needless to reiterate, it is possible only if we extricate its formulation from security establishment and vesting it with the public representatives.  Only they are in a position to select the best available options and the strategies to achieve its objectives by utilising all our resources.
  35. 35.  USA is still a super power-no need to antagonise it; even China has no objection to better USA-Pakistan relations  USA/West our largest trade partner, technology source, biggest aid donors plus hosts of large diaspora/students  Genuine interests of USA must be protected-terrorism, safe exit from Afghanistan, nuclear safety guarantees etc  However, not at cost of genuine interests- CPEC, Kashmir, Nuclear deterrence
  36. 36.  Push for American multinationals FDI/greater access to US markets we are interested in.desist from issuing too many travel advisories restricting the visits of foreign investors into Pakistan.  positive nod to multilateral institutions like the World Bank/IMF can go a long way in boosting foreign investment in Pakistan. And that FATF sword-the sooner it is lifted, the better.  should play a proactive and a positive role in an amicable resolution of all interstate disputes in the region. This includes Kashmir dispute  It should also desist India from creating unrest in Pakistan, particularly in Baluchistan and Karachi
  37. 37.  Pakistan's relationship with China is strategic, historic, trouble-free and pivotal to our foreign policy. We depend upon each other more  With coming together of India and USA for containment of China, Pakistan has become even more important for China than before  We should keep on work actively for a just and peaceful solution to the Kashmir dispute and other issues of mutual interests  China should express publicly its opposition to any use or threat of force against Pakistan and warn that this would evoke an appropriate Chinese response.
  38. 38.  Affirm that security of CPEC is common responsibility of Pakistan & China as Indian terrorism to sabotage CPEC is an attack on our mutual interests  Any incentive to India to join CPEC should be made jointly by Pakistan and China without compromising Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir dispute.  China should provide Pakistan, on concessional terms, weapons systems and defence capabilities required to neutralise the advanced weapons technologies being acquired by India from the US or other sources.  If Pakistan capitulates to India’s hegemonic designs, New Delhi’s military capabilities will be increasingly deployed against China
  39. 39.  Pakistan-Russia relations have improved a lot due to multiple reasons-Chinese efforts, American attitude, mutual needs  However, they cannot be like those between Russia and India for sheer economic reasons-size does matter in global relations  Pakistan should seek avenues where there is convergence of mutual interests-terrorism, economic cooperation, Afghanistan solution  Pakistan should encourage inclusion of Russia in CPEC as it would blunt the Indian opposition to CPEC
  40. 40.  Iran -next door neighbour, can influence shias in Pakistan, has security interests in Afghanistan, harbours nuclear ambitions  Assure Iran of our neutrality in its standoff with the USA. However, it should reciprocate, not allow India to use its soil against Pakistan  Assure Iran that Pakistan values its help but will not be dictated on how it deals with others to safeguard national interest see us as bridge between it and the Sunni Arab world  More cooperation in oil/gas, energy generation/ joint ventures
  41. 41.  Saudi Arabia-religious affinity, defence cooperation,energy needs, financial assistance, hosts diaspora, made investment.  We should value Saudi help but must not be dictated by them on how Pakistan deals with its neighbors to safeguard its national interest  Pakistan should assure Saudi Arabia that our close relations with Iran should be construed as a bridge not a gulf between Iran & Arab world  We should push for honourable treatment of Pakistani expatriates, welcome more Saudi investment in oil/gas, urban development  We should also make it clear that their close relations with India should in no way be at the cost of vital national interest of Pakistan
  42. 42.  Almost permanent rivalry in foreseeable future, thanks to Modi-inspired anti-Pakistan hatred in India. Our traders must find new avenues of trade  Kashmir-not a lost cause even after abrogation of its special status and we must keep on supporting the just cause of the Kashmiris  India's reservations on CPEC are ill-founded and must be answered befittingly as CPEC is the real game changer for national interest  Possibility of Water war is becoming more grim with the rise of hinduata nationalists in policy making in India. We must be careful  Post-NATO Afghanistan-we must keep good relations with all the groups and try to play an honest broker to dilute Indian influence
  43. 43.  Afghanistan, our next-door neighbour with lot of historical love-hate baggage, ethnic overlapping, sociocultural similarities, economic interdependence and what not  However, our relations have never been harmonious except brief moments of exceptional goodwill; both countries blame each other but greater burden is on Afghanistan for this ill-will  Relations with Afghanistan depend a lot on the way NATO forces exit- Vietnam style or USSR exit style. Civil war or smooth transition  Pakistan should try to play a balancing act with all the warring factions to ensure a peaceful post-NATO Afghanistan
  44. 44.  Litmus test of success of any policy is the realisation of goals/ objectives determined under components of national interest  Geostrategically located medium powers like Pakistan become inconsequential unless they use their strengths and exploit opportunities with astute diplomacy  Despite its several handicaps, Pakistan has not done bad in pursuing the objectives of its national interest. It can claim some stellar successes in its diplomatic bag  However, there is no cause for complacency as the issues becoming complex transcending borders, involving multiple state/non-state stakeholders  As such, there is need to improve the capacity of all institutions to formulate proper policies, including foreign policy and implement them with ruthless efficiency

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