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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
%
Years
Percentage change in standardised UK mortality rates (age 0-64) normalised to 100% in 1970
circulatory
ischaemic heart
cerebrovascular
neoplasms
respiratory
endocrine / metabolic
diabetes
Data from WHO-HFA database downloaded Oct 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
%
Years
Percentage change in standardised UK mortality rates (age 0-64) normalised to 100% in 1970
circulatory
ischaemic heart
cerebrovascular
neoplasms
respiratory
liver
endocrine / metabolic
diabetes
Data from WHO-HFA database downloaded Oct 2013
Sheron, Gilmore BMJ 2015 in press
Liver mortality Directly attributable alcohol mortality
Williams et al Lancet 2015
0100200300400500
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
%changesince1980
Trends in mortality from alcohol related liver disease in England and Wales , consumption
of spirits, wine, beer and cider, and changes in duty
Alcohol related
liver deaths E&W
%
White spirits
consumption %
Whisky
consumption %
Cider consumption
%
Wine consumption
%
Total lager / beer
consumption
alcohol %
Packaged strong
lager %
Dr Foster data, in-hospital mortality all E &W acute trusts
Nick Sheron, unpublished analysis
Survival of admissions to the Liver Unit Southampton
1/3
1/3
1/3
76%
P<0.001
Prior liver outpatient referrals in 5,112 Southampton first admissions with cirrhosis
Nick Sheron unpublished analysis
¾ of people
who will die
of cirrhosis
have no idea
they are ill
Population Hepatology
Liver cell
Liver Enzymes
eg ALT, AST, ALP, GGT
Necrosis = cell swells, membrane leaks,
enzymes escape
Liver enzymes are raised in blood
Viral hepatitis
Autoimmune hepatitis
necrosis apoptosis
Cell shrinks with
membrane intact
necrosis apoptosis
Liver enzymes normal
Alcohol
Obesity
Scarring or fibrosis
The current system for treating liver disease doesn’t work
Because it picks up people too late
The Southampton Liver Traffic Light Test
4,343 subjects followed for 12 years
30% reduced drinking to safe levels
65% reduced drinking to safe levels
Traffic light test given to 400 heavy drinkers in primary care
follow up data at one year
The
POLeMIC
programPrevention
Of
Liver
Mortality
In
Communities
Emma Greatorex, Katie Minards, David Cable, Alan Hales
Biochemistry data
Haematology data
Endoscopy data
PAS data
Pathology data
Hampshire Health Record data
Acknowledgments:
POLeMMIC
Colin Newell
Magdy El-Gohari
Emily Stimpson
Jo Dash
Tina Reinson
Jackie Hollis
Lucy Gruner
Maria Baggot
Natalie Stanton
Wendy O’Brien
Andrea Jarman
Mike Moore
Paul Roderick
Julia Sinclair
Miranda Kim
Maheswaran Naranjan
Topher Woelk
Data:
HHRIGG
NHS SCW CSU
Funding:
British Liver Trust
NIHR BRC

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