This is a lecture I delivered at Mysore University Academic Staff College. The lecture takes into account the entire experience on agricultural policy of mine.References are purposefully not given as the readers can gwt to me.
http://www.candlestickforums.com
Agricultural commodities
Trading agricultural commodities is the province of agricultural producers and the likes of multinational grain companies. It is also the province of traders speculating on movements in the agricultural commodities markets. Both groups trading commodities rely upon fundamental analysis of the commodity in question and engage in technical analysis using technical analysis tools such as Candlestick chart formations in order to judge when to stay with a market trend and when to expect a market reversal. The world needs food but growing conditions, food transport and storage, and diversion of food stuffs into energy all affect availability and, therefore, commodity price. This mixture of facts and conditions drives pricing in the futures markets in agricultural commodities. Whether you are interested in trading corn futures or live cattle Commodities and Futures Training will be a good place to start.
The Traders
When you start commodity trading you will be up against the likes of traders working for companies like Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland. These multinational food companies know the fundamentals of the agricultural commodities markets as it is their business. They will, in fact, know fundamentals before you do. Although their advantage may only be minutes or even seconds they will cause market movement to which you will have to react. They are typically the drivers of the commodities markets in wheat, corn, soybeans and other products. You will be in the pack with other traders doing Candlestick analysis to predict market reaction to the trades made by the big money.
Why They Trade
There are two types of traders in agricultural commodities. There are the producers and the buyers who are hedging commodities and their investment risk. There are traders looking to profit on market movement. Farm cooperatives growing sugar beets and sugar producers who buy sugar beets or cane each buy or sell commodities futures contacts to lock in price at a future date. Because these folks know the market in their commodity they may well also trade for profit but their primary motive is to maintain a stable price for their product. The trader speculates on market movement and market reversal in looking to profit. The producers and buyers want a stable market. The pure trader would like to see lots of market volatility.
“Food Price Volatility and Resilience in Africa” presented by Nicholas Minot, Senior Research Fellow, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, IFPRI at 2014 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 9, 2014
This is a lecture I delivered at Mysore University Academic Staff College. The lecture takes into account the entire experience on agricultural policy of mine.References are purposefully not given as the readers can gwt to me.
http://www.candlestickforums.com
Agricultural commodities
Trading agricultural commodities is the province of agricultural producers and the likes of multinational grain companies. It is also the province of traders speculating on movements in the agricultural commodities markets. Both groups trading commodities rely upon fundamental analysis of the commodity in question and engage in technical analysis using technical analysis tools such as Candlestick chart formations in order to judge when to stay with a market trend and when to expect a market reversal. The world needs food but growing conditions, food transport and storage, and diversion of food stuffs into energy all affect availability and, therefore, commodity price. This mixture of facts and conditions drives pricing in the futures markets in agricultural commodities. Whether you are interested in trading corn futures or live cattle Commodities and Futures Training will be a good place to start.
The Traders
When you start commodity trading you will be up against the likes of traders working for companies like Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland. These multinational food companies know the fundamentals of the agricultural commodities markets as it is their business. They will, in fact, know fundamentals before you do. Although their advantage may only be minutes or even seconds they will cause market movement to which you will have to react. They are typically the drivers of the commodities markets in wheat, corn, soybeans and other products. You will be in the pack with other traders doing Candlestick analysis to predict market reaction to the trades made by the big money.
Why They Trade
There are two types of traders in agricultural commodities. There are the producers and the buyers who are hedging commodities and their investment risk. There are traders looking to profit on market movement. Farm cooperatives growing sugar beets and sugar producers who buy sugar beets or cane each buy or sell commodities futures contacts to lock in price at a future date. Because these folks know the market in their commodity they may well also trade for profit but their primary motive is to maintain a stable price for their product. The trader speculates on market movement and market reversal in looking to profit. The producers and buyers want a stable market. The pure trader would like to see lots of market volatility.
“Food Price Volatility and Resilience in Africa” presented by Nicholas Minot, Senior Research Fellow, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, IFPRI at 2014 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 9, 2014
50 years of measuring support to agriculture in CanadaLars Brink
Overview and interpretation of 50 years of measuring support to agriculture in Canada. One-off and sustained initiatives; expenditures and price gaps; domestic context and international context such as OECD, WTO and other; thoughts on future priorities for governments.
This study examined the effectiveness of agricultural protection policy and other macroeconomic variables on food supply, agricultural export, and farmers welfare in Nigeria, from 1980-2016 with a special interest in their relationship with the political economy. The specific objectives were to (i) estimate the degrees of agricultural protection, domestic agricultural food supply and economic welfare to farmers in Nigeria, (ii) determine the effectiveness of agricultural protection on food self-supply, agricultural export; and farmer-welfare. Data were obtained from secondary sources. Descriptive statistics and generalized method of moment (GMM) were used. Nigeria’s self-food supply was slightly above 50% while the rest of the consumption depended on importation. The welfare measure to farmers was relatively poor and not good enough to motivate them. There was a positive and significant relationship between export and agricultural protection. A significant and positive relationship also exists between farmer-welfare and protection in the sector.
Agricultural commodity marketing; marketing issues related to timeDaisy Ifeoma
This chapter will enable students to understand the different stages of agricultural commodity marketing. At the end of this chapter, students should have an understanding of how agricultural commodity exchanges operate, how the prices of commodities are determined and most importantly be able to argue in favour of /against the presence of hedgers and speculators in the futures market.
The global grain products market was valued at around $265 billion in 2017. Asia Pacific was the largest region in the grain products market in 2017, accounting for under 57% market share.
Read Report
https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/grain-products-global-market-report-2018
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for MalawiIFPRIMaSSP
On 27 January 2017, Dr. Nicholas Minot, Deputy Division Director of IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division led a seminar at IFPRI-Malawi on, “Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi.” His presentation explored the objectives and tradeoffs of creating public grain reserves and various policy options that affect their performance and cost.
This chapter is intended to ensure that students understand why agricultural policies are needed in both developing and developed countries. It will also shed light on the major forces that cause policy change, reasons for government involvement in agriculture and the place of agricultural policies in the future.
Livestock markets and smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa: A reviewILRI
Presentation by Gebremedhin, B. and Hoekstra, D. to the 5th All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture and the 18th Annual Meeting of the Ethiopian Society of Animal Production (ESAP), Addis Ababa, October 25-28, 2010.
capacity building in agricultural trade2rishabhkumar
international trade barriers both tariff and non-tariff.
Indian perspective
Trade competitiveness of rice
Case study on India-Pakistan bilateral trade in agriculture
Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustain...ijtsrd
There is an urgent need for the revitalization of the Nigerian Agricultural sector especially now the economic situation of the economy is nothing to write home about. The Agricultural sector of Nigeria was neglected for years owing to the discovery of crude oil in the 70s. Crude oil exportation gradually replaced Agricultural products exportation until Nigeria became a mono product exporting nation. The current fall in oil prices have led to the recent clamor for the diversification of the economy through agricultural export performance. Serveral policies have been implemented by the government both in state and federal levels in order to boost the agricultural sector but no significant change has been achieved. This indicates that the sector is faced with challenges which must be identified and nipped in the bud for the sector to flourish. Marketing of Agricultural products has been identified by various researchers globally and in Nigeria as the major problems of the Agricultural sector. Various scholars have discovered that if the right marketing practices is not put in place in the Agricultural sector of an economy, the sector would not flourish. Therefore the thrust of this conceptual study was to identify the problems associated with the marketing of Agricultural products with a view to proffering recommendations of the best marketing practices to adopt in order to boost the Agricultural sector of the economy for economic growth and sustainable development. Nwuba, Chibike Onyije "Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38503.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/marketing/38503/marketing-of-agricultural-products-a-panacea-for-economic-growth-and-sustainable-development-in-nigeria/nwuba-chibike-onyije
Marketing is the fruit of success in any form of business. Agricultural Marketing is the process of supplying farm inputs to the farmers and the movement of agricultural products from the producer to its ultimate consumer which involves various functions such as buying, selling, packaging, transportation, grading and standardization, storage, processing etc. during this process, there is a chance for some risks and uncertainties to take place. Uncertainty is the unknown factor which causes sudden loss that cannot be predicted and managed where risk is the part of uncertainty which is a known factor that means stepping into a process or technique even-though by knowing that there is a probability of loss. Agricultural marketing experiences three types of risks namely the Physical risk, Price risk and the Institutional risk. The physical risk is the loss in the quantity and quality of the product during storage and transport like fire accident; rodents, pest and disease attack and due to improper packing. The price risk includes the fluctuation in the price of the agricultural marketing; changes in the demand and supply of the product. The institutional risk arises due to the change in the government budget policy; due to the change in the import and export policy. The physical risk can be managed by using fire proof materials in the storage structures, by proper packing and by giving pre-storage treatments. The price risk can be minimized by following contract farming, forward and future market, speculation and hedging. The farmer or trader must have thorough knowledge in the management of risk and should adopt the suitable methods in order to get better outcome in the agricultural marketing.
50 years of measuring support to agriculture in CanadaLars Brink
Overview and interpretation of 50 years of measuring support to agriculture in Canada. One-off and sustained initiatives; expenditures and price gaps; domestic context and international context such as OECD, WTO and other; thoughts on future priorities for governments.
This study examined the effectiveness of agricultural protection policy and other macroeconomic variables on food supply, agricultural export, and farmers welfare in Nigeria, from 1980-2016 with a special interest in their relationship with the political economy. The specific objectives were to (i) estimate the degrees of agricultural protection, domestic agricultural food supply and economic welfare to farmers in Nigeria, (ii) determine the effectiveness of agricultural protection on food self-supply, agricultural export; and farmer-welfare. Data were obtained from secondary sources. Descriptive statistics and generalized method of moment (GMM) were used. Nigeria’s self-food supply was slightly above 50% while the rest of the consumption depended on importation. The welfare measure to farmers was relatively poor and not good enough to motivate them. There was a positive and significant relationship between export and agricultural protection. A significant and positive relationship also exists between farmer-welfare and protection in the sector.
Agricultural commodity marketing; marketing issues related to timeDaisy Ifeoma
This chapter will enable students to understand the different stages of agricultural commodity marketing. At the end of this chapter, students should have an understanding of how agricultural commodity exchanges operate, how the prices of commodities are determined and most importantly be able to argue in favour of /against the presence of hedgers and speculators in the futures market.
The global grain products market was valued at around $265 billion in 2017. Asia Pacific was the largest region in the grain products market in 2017, accounting for under 57% market share.
Read Report
https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/grain-products-global-market-report-2018
Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for MalawiIFPRIMaSSP
On 27 January 2017, Dr. Nicholas Minot, Deputy Division Director of IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division led a seminar at IFPRI-Malawi on, “Public grain reserves: International experience and lessons for Malawi.” His presentation explored the objectives and tradeoffs of creating public grain reserves and various policy options that affect their performance and cost.
This chapter is intended to ensure that students understand why agricultural policies are needed in both developing and developed countries. It will also shed light on the major forces that cause policy change, reasons for government involvement in agriculture and the place of agricultural policies in the future.
Livestock markets and smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa: A reviewILRI
Presentation by Gebremedhin, B. and Hoekstra, D. to the 5th All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture and the 18th Annual Meeting of the Ethiopian Society of Animal Production (ESAP), Addis Ababa, October 25-28, 2010.
capacity building in agricultural trade2rishabhkumar
international trade barriers both tariff and non-tariff.
Indian perspective
Trade competitiveness of rice
Case study on India-Pakistan bilateral trade in agriculture
Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustain...ijtsrd
There is an urgent need for the revitalization of the Nigerian Agricultural sector especially now the economic situation of the economy is nothing to write home about. The Agricultural sector of Nigeria was neglected for years owing to the discovery of crude oil in the 70s. Crude oil exportation gradually replaced Agricultural products exportation until Nigeria became a mono product exporting nation. The current fall in oil prices have led to the recent clamor for the diversification of the economy through agricultural export performance. Serveral policies have been implemented by the government both in state and federal levels in order to boost the agricultural sector but no significant change has been achieved. This indicates that the sector is faced with challenges which must be identified and nipped in the bud for the sector to flourish. Marketing of Agricultural products has been identified by various researchers globally and in Nigeria as the major problems of the Agricultural sector. Various scholars have discovered that if the right marketing practices is not put in place in the Agricultural sector of an economy, the sector would not flourish. Therefore the thrust of this conceptual study was to identify the problems associated with the marketing of Agricultural products with a view to proffering recommendations of the best marketing practices to adopt in order to boost the Agricultural sector of the economy for economic growth and sustainable development. Nwuba, Chibike Onyije "Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38503.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/marketing/38503/marketing-of-agricultural-products-a-panacea-for-economic-growth-and-sustainable-development-in-nigeria/nwuba-chibike-onyije
Marketing is the fruit of success in any form of business. Agricultural Marketing is the process of supplying farm inputs to the farmers and the movement of agricultural products from the producer to its ultimate consumer which involves various functions such as buying, selling, packaging, transportation, grading and standardization, storage, processing etc. during this process, there is a chance for some risks and uncertainties to take place. Uncertainty is the unknown factor which causes sudden loss that cannot be predicted and managed where risk is the part of uncertainty which is a known factor that means stepping into a process or technique even-though by knowing that there is a probability of loss. Agricultural marketing experiences three types of risks namely the Physical risk, Price risk and the Institutional risk. The physical risk is the loss in the quantity and quality of the product during storage and transport like fire accident; rodents, pest and disease attack and due to improper packing. The price risk includes the fluctuation in the price of the agricultural marketing; changes in the demand and supply of the product. The institutional risk arises due to the change in the government budget policy; due to the change in the import and export policy. The physical risk can be managed by using fire proof materials in the storage structures, by proper packing and by giving pre-storage treatments. The price risk can be minimized by following contract farming, forward and future market, speculation and hedging. The farmer or trader must have thorough knowledge in the management of risk and should adopt the suitable methods in order to get better outcome in the agricultural marketing.
IFPRI South Asia researchers Devesh Roy, Ruchira Boss, Mamata Pradhan and Manmeet Ajmani presented ‘Understanding the landscape of pulse policy in India and implications for trade’ to the Global Pulse Federation. The paper examines Indian policy around production, consumption and trade. The need for pulse trade policy in India to be supportive of Domestic priorities focused on serving interest of both India’s farmers and consumers.
Presentation given at regional dialogue on the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition, Addis Ababa, June 2014.
http://www.future-agricultures.org/pastoralism/7984-pastoralism-in-ethiopia-new-briefings-and-paper
Duke CGGC researchers Ghada Ahmed and Danny Hamrick gave the presentation at the International Policy Studies Organization (IPSO) conference on Middle East Dialogue on February 26, 2015. Following the presentation is a link to a YouTube video of the presentation.
FOR DOWNLOAD CONTACT - eduvish24@gmail.com
AGRICULTURE PRICE POLICY :
This presentation has evolution of price policy, instruments of agricultural price policies, MSP (Minimum support prices), crops under MSP, procurement prices, public distribution system,Types of rationing, buffer stock,objectives of buffer stock, features of price policy,, types of price policy,effects of price policy,drawback of agricultural price policy.
GLOBILISATION OF AGRICULTURE AND WTO.pptxshivalika6
This refers to the integration of agricultural markets, production processes, and supply chains on a global scale. It involves the increasing interconnectedness of agricultural producers, consumers, and markets worldwide.
Poorva Pandya
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Organized by IFPRI, with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
SEP 17, 2020 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
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African cities are growing rapidly This growth can be attributed to the increase in population from natural births within cities and migration of people from rural areas in search of better job opportunities. The increase in urban population has led to an expansion of urban boundaries into peri-urban and rural areas, And the associated increase in demand for land previously not classified as urban has sped up the development of land markets in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) cities. It is in the context of this trend that a spike in global energy and food prices in 2007 and 2008 led to a sharp – albeit temporary – increase in demand by international investors for rural agricultural land in Africa and beyond, stoking fears of a “land grab.”
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This presentation was made by Dr. Tabitha C. Nindi, a Research Fellow at the Malawi University of Science and Technology (MUST), on the 24th of March 2021.
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f you offer a service on the web, odds are that someone will abuse it. Be it an API, a SaaS, a PaaS, or even a static website, someone somewhere will try to figure out a way to use it to their own needs. In this talk we'll compare measures that are effective against static attackers and how to battle a dynamic attacker who adapts to your counter-measures.
About the Speaker
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Diogo Sousa, Engineering Manager @ Canonical
An opinionated individual with an interest in cryptography and its intersection with secure software development.
This presentation by Morris Kleiner (University of Minnesota), was made during the discussion “Competition and Regulation in Professions and Occupations” held at the Working Party No. 2 on Competition and Regulation on 10 June 2024. More papers and presentations on the topic can be found out at oe.cd/crps.
This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
This presentation, created by Syed Faiz ul Hassan, explores the profound influence of media on public perception and behavior. It delves into the evolution of media from oral traditions to modern digital and social media platforms. Key topics include the role of media in information propagation, socialization, crisis awareness, globalization, and education. The presentation also examines media influence through agenda setting, propaganda, and manipulative techniques used by advertisers and marketers. Furthermore, it highlights the impact of surveillance enabled by media technologies on personal behavior and preferences. Through this comprehensive overview, the presentation aims to shed light on how media shapes collective consciousness and public opinion.
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Have you ever wondered how search works while visiting an e-commerce site, internal website, or searching through other types of online resources? Look no further than this informative session on the ways that taxonomies help end-users navigate the internet! Hear from taxonomists and other information professionals who have first-hand experience creating and working with taxonomies that aid in navigation, search, and discovery across a range of disciplines.
Acorn Recovery: Restore IT infra within minutesIP ServerOne
Introducing Acorn Recovery as a Service, a simple, fast, and secure managed disaster recovery (DRaaS) by IP ServerOne. A DR solution that helps restore your IT infra within minutes.
Cereal Price Stabilization in East Africa:Implications of International Experience
1. Cereal Price Stabilization in East Africa:
Implications of International Experience
Paul A. Dorosh, Bart Minten and David Stifel
IFPRI
Economics of Malawi (ECAMA) 2015 Research Symposium
Lilongwe, Malawi
June 4 and 5, 2015
2. Page 2
Cereal Price Stabilization in East Africa
• East Africa: Evolution of Maize and Wheat Prices
• Price Stabilization: Competing Approaches
• Utilizing Trade to Stabilize Prices
• Bangladesh 1998
• Madagascar Rice Crisis 2004
• Principles of a Price Stabilization Strategy
• Utilize international trade, not just stocks
• Promote private sector trade
• Ensure transparency and predictability of policies
3. Page 3
Domestic cereal prices in East Africa: 2006-2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
US$(2014)/ton
Ethiopia Wheat Ethiopia Maize Kenya Maize Uganda Maize
4. Page 5
Cereal Price Variability in East Africa
• Domestic prices of maize in Ethiopia and Kenya
and of wheat in Ethiopia were more stable than
border prices (international prices converted to
local currency units using nominal exchange
rates).
• This is largely due to the large spike in international
prices in 2007 and 2008.
• Domestic prices in real local currency units were
most stable for wheat in Ethiopia (c.v. = 0.139)
which at times actively used imports to stabilize
markets, and least stable in Uganda, which had
relatively connection with major international
markets.
5. Page 6
Cereal prices in East Africa:
Average 2000-2012
Pworld($) Ex rate Pborder Pdom Pdom($) Pborder/CPI Pdom/CPI
$/ton lcu/$ lcu/kg lcu/kg $/ton Lcu (2000)/kg Lcu (2000)/kg
Ethiopia wheat
Mean 291.14 15.89 5.21 6.25 395.03 1.42 1.75
CV 0.173 0.165 0.298 0.195 0.127 0.182 0.139
Ethiopia maize
Mean 240.01 15.89 4.34 4.13 259.82 1.17 1.13
CV 0.262 0.165 0.354 0.285 0.154 0.226 0.174
Kenya maize
Mean 240.01 83.21 22.69 29.69 371.20 25.28 34.92
CV 0.262 0.063 0.275 0.237 0.178 0.152 0.176
Uganda maize
Mean 240.01 2364.45 650.85 639.26 268.35 322.35 283.90
CV 0.262 0.106 0.312 0.334 0.297 0.165 0.291
Domestic prices of maize in Ethiopia and Kenya and of wheat in Ethiopia were more
stable than border prices.
Domestic prices in real local currency units were most stable for wheat in Ethiopia
(c.v. = 0.139) which at times actively used imports to help stabilize prices.
6. Page 9
Price Stabilization: Competing Approaches
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Rely on markets with Primary reliance on Role for markets with
limited role of state markets with rules-based discretionary state
role of state intervention
• Role of state limited to • Role for rules-based • Based on premise that the
State operations private sector cannot ensure
• Public goods investment adequate food supplies in
• Buffer stock release response to production
• Regulatory framework in response to defend shortfalls
stated ceiling price
• Strengthening of institutions • Justification for
and property rights • Marketing board unconstrained role for
purchases at stated state intervention in
• Policies supportive of floor price announced markets to correct for
private sector entry and in advance market failures
competition
• Transparent rules for
Initiating state imports
• Public goods invest-
ments
Source: Jayne and Tschirley (2009).
7. Government Cereal Market Interventions
in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan
(averages for 2000-07)
Pakistan India India Bangladesh Bangladesh
Wheat Wheat Rice Wheat Rice
Production (mn tons) 20.33 70.51 87.23 1.21 25.68
Procurement (mn tons) 3.89 16.09 22.52 0.11 0.88
Share of production 19.2% 23.0% 25.7% 6.7% 3.4%
Stocks (mn tons) 1.16 17.06 16.40 0.23 0.54
Stocks (kg/capita) 7.6 16.2 15.4 1.7 3.8
Distribution channels Subsidized Subsidized Subsidized Targeted Targeted
sales to sales through sales through Distrib Distrib;
flour mills PDS PDS (FFW, etc.) Sales
Source: Dorosh (2009).
8. India – Production Subsidies and
Public Stocks
• Beginning in the late 1960s, India adopted policies to
promote a Green Revolution in cereal production
• Investments in agricultural research and externsion
• Government procurement of rice and wheat at high prices
• Subsidies to fertilizer, irrigation water and electricity
• By the early 1980s, India was self-sufficient in cereals
and large scale food aid flows ended – national food
security had been achieved.
• Political pressure to increase support prices led to a
sharp increase in the volume of procurement in the
early 1990s and in public stocks.
9. India: Central Pool Public Stocks of Rice and
Wheat, 1980-2008
Rice
Wheat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
MillionTons
Data are for January 1 of each year.
Source: Calculated from data from Government of India, Department of Food and Public Distribution.
10. Managing the 1998 flood in
Bangladesh
• Reforms in the early 1990s allowed private trade in grains
• Private imports responded to domestic supply and demand
conditions as reflected in the domestic price
• In 1994-95, the private sector imported rice from India,
stabilizing prices at import parity levels
• In 1996-97, domestic prices were below import parity levels
and private sector imports were essentially zero
• Following a massive flood in mid-1998, 2.4 million tons of private
sector imports stabilized domestic prices at import parity levels
• At the same time, the government scaled up public safety net
programs (Vulnerable Group Feeding and Food for Work)
12. Bangladesh: Monitoring Markets
• Comparisons of import parity with domestic prices
• Margins between import parity (inclusive of taxes) and domestic
wholesale prices were checked for changes that could not be
accounted for by changes in costs (an indication of possible
economic rents)
• Analysis of letters of credit
• Data on letters of credit were used to show how many traders
participated in imports and their market shares
• Dialogue with private traders
• Discussions with traders helped inform government analysts to
rapidly changing conditions in international markets, shipping, port
problems and domestic transport
• This dialogue also provided an opportunity for sharing of
information regarding government policies and concerns of
domestic traders
13. Madagascar’s Rice Policy
• Madagascar liberalized rice markets in the mid-1980s
• Over the period 1995–2003 private sector imports
averaged about 5% of total supply each year, stabilizing
rice prices in the months before the major rice harvest.
• Nonetheless, over this period, the country retained
high import tariffs and taxes to protect domestic
producers
15. Madagascar 2004:
Mixed Signals Contribute to a Crisis
• A production shortfall in early 2004 coincided with a rise in
world prices and a sharp depreciation of the currency.
• The slow pace of private commercial imports led the
government to float tenders for commercial imports of rice
BUT
• They left open the possibility that tariffs on these imports
might be waived or rebated.
• And set an official sales price below the tariff-inclusive
import parity price.
16. Madagascar: Rice Crisis 2004
The Result
• Private sector import trade was discouraged,
• The government did not have sufficient rice to meet all
demand at this official price, so it had to ration sales, and a
parallel market at a price above import parity levels
developed.
By destroying incentives for private trade, the
government unintentionally exacerbated price
instability.
17. Page 20
Principles: Stabilization Strategy
1) Utilize international markets, not just public
sector stocks
2) Promote private sector international trade
3) Maintain transparency & predictability of policies
18. Page 21
Utilize International Markets
1) Utilize international markets, not just public
sector stocks
o Import when domestic autarky (no trade) prices
are high relative to international border prices
o Export when domestic autarky (no trade) prices
are low relative to international border prices
o The alternative is to rely on public stocks – but this
can discourage private trade and can be very costly
o A judicious mix of public stocks and international
trade is often best.
19. Page 22
Promote Private Sector Trade
2) Promote private sector international trade
o Least cost
o Most efficient
o Quickest
Helps to maintain market supply
Enhances price stability (except in years of
extremely high or low international prices)
20. Page 23
Transparency and Predictability
3) Transparency & predictability of policies
o Uncertainty over government policy discourages:
o Private sector investment
o Domestic and international trade
o How to reduce uncertainty?
o Establish a platform for discussion and
information sharing between government,
traders, millers, etc.
21. References
Dorosh, Paul A. 2001. “Trade Liberalization and National Food Security: Rice Trade
between Bangladesh and India”, World Development, 29(4): 673-689.
Dorosh, Paul A. 2008. “Food Price Stabilization and Food Security: The International
Experience” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 44(1): 93-114.
Dorosh, Paul A. 2009. “Price Stabilization, International Trade and National Cereal
Stocks: World Price Shocks and Policy Response in South Asia”, Food Security
1(2):137-149.
Dorosh, Paul A., Bart Minten and David Stifel. 2015. “Cereal Price Stabilization in
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Jayne, Thomas, and David Tschirley. 2009. “Food Price Spikes and Strategic
Interactions Between the Public and Private Sectors: Market Failures or
Governance Failures?” A paper presented at the FAO meeting on Institutions and
Policies to Manage Global Market Risks and Price Spikes in Basic Food
Commodities, Rome, 26–27 October 2009.
Minten, Bart and Paul Dorosh (eds.). 2006. Rice Markets in Madagascar in Disarray:
Policy Options for Increased Efficiency and Price Stabilization. Africa Region
Working Paper Series, Number 101, September. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.