Credit Default Swap (CDS)
Finanzas Empresariales II
Omar Pernas López-Sarry
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
2
Index
• Introduction
• Credit Default Swap
• Example
• Conclusions
• Bibliography
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
3
Index
• Introduction
• Credit Default Swap
• Example
• Bibliography
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
4
What’s a financial derivative?
Derivatives are financial instruments whose payoffs
derive from other, more primitive financial variables such
as a stock price, a commodity price, an index level, an
interest rate, or an exchange rate.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
5
Composition of global derivatives
contracts by trading arrangement as at
the end of 2014 by outstanding gross
notional value
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
6
How can derivatives be used?
• Forwards and futures: to hedge an existing
market exposure.
• Options: to obtain downside protection to an
exposure even while retaining upside
potential.
• Swaps: to transform the nature of an
exposure.
• Credit derivative: to obtain insurance
against events such as default.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
7
Size of global OTC derivatives
markets by outstanding gross
notional value
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
8
What’s gross notional outstanding
value?
Notional outstanding refers to the principal amount of the contracts.
• If a forward contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 oz of gold at a
price of $1,800/oz, the notional outstanding in the contract is $(1,
800 × 1, 000) = $1.80 million.
• If an option gives the holder the right to buy 10,000 shares of
Google at $500/ share, the notional outstanding in the contract is
$(10, 000 × 500) = $5 million.
• If a swap calls for the exchange of floating cash flows for fixed cash
flows on a principal of $100 million, the notional outstanding in the
swap is $100 million.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
9
What’s a credit derivative?
Credit derivatives are derivatives written
on the credit risk of an underlying reference
entity. Isolate credit risk from other risks
present in an asset. Are off-balance-sheet
instruments.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
10
Isolation and separate
trading of credit risk
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
11
Credit Derivative Market Growth
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
12
Types of credit derivatives
• Credit Default Swap (CDS)
• Total Return Swap
• Constant Maturity Credit Default Swap (CMCDS)
• First to Default Credit Default Swap
• Portfolio Credit Default Swap
• Secured Loan Credit Default Swap
• Credit Default Swap on Asset Backed Securities
• Credit default swaption
• Recovery lock transaction
• Credit Spread Option
• CDS index products
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
13
Index
• Introduction
• Credit Default Swap
• Example
• Bibliography
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
14
CDS: definition
A Credit Default Swap (CDS) is a kind of
insurance against credit risk.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
15
How does a CDS work?
Protection buyer
(short position)
Protection seller
(long position)
Bp per annum
Contingent
payment
Credit event
• Municipal bonds
• Emerging market bonds
• Mortgage-backed
securities
• Corporate debt
Reference
entity
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
16
Three main types of CDS
• Single name: The reference entity is an individual
corporation, bank, or government.
• Index: CDS referring to multiple constitutent entities
in the index with each entity having an equal share of
the notional amount. The degree of standardisation is
highest for these contracts.
• Basket CDS: CDS with more than one reference entity
(typically between three and one hundred names).
Specific types include first-to-default CDS, full basket
CDS, untranched basket and tranched basket known as
a synthetic CDO.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
17
Types of credit events
• Bankruptcy: where the reference entity becomes bankrupt
or suffers an analogous.
• Failure to pay: where the reference entity fails to make a
payment of interest or principal.
• Obligation default: where the reference entity defaults on
one of its obligations.
• Repudiation/moratorium: where the reference entity
repudiates or declares a moratorium over some or all of its
debts.
• Restructuring: where the reference entity arranges for
some or all of its debts to be restructured causing a material
change in their creditworthiness.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
18
CDS features
Size
Averaging $25 to $50 million per
transaction.
Time to maturity 1 to 10 years.
Transaction
method
Direct contracting and trading
between the seller and the buyer
Guarantees
required
Not if rated >= AA
Secondary
market
Existent
Settlement Whole losses or gains at maturity
Guarantying
institution
The own contracting parties
Contract
compliance
Physical delivery or cash settlement
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
19
CDS uses: hedging and Speculation
• An individual or company that is exposed
to a lot of credit risk can shift some of
that risk by buying protection in a CDS
contract.
• CDS provide a very efficient way to take a
view on the credit of a reference entity.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
20
CDS: Market risks
• The market for CDS is OTC and unregulated.
• Contracts often get traded so much that it is hard
to know who stands at each end of a transaction.
• Counterparty risk.
• The possibility that a widespread downturn in the
market could cause massive defaults and
challenge the ability of risk buyers to pay their
obligations.
• Leverage.
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
21
Index
• Introduction
• Credit Default Swap
• Example
• Bibliography
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
22
AIG’s involvement in mortgage backed
securities (MBS)
Protection buyer:
Lenders, investors
Protection seller:
AIG
Bp per annum
Contingent
payment
Credit event:
Sub-prime crisis
Reference entity
Mortgage
Backed
Obligations
(MBO)
Returns on
different
tranches
Borrowers
Borrowers
Principal +
Interest
$180 billion
bailout
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
23
The Big Short
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cxjdj5_
5yNM
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
24
CDS from business newspaper
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
25
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
26
The evolution of average 5-years
weekly CDS spreads (bp) for strong-
economy countries
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
27
The evolution of average 5-years
weekly CDS spread (bp) for PIIGS
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
28
Index
• Introduction
• Credit Default Swap
• Example
• Bibliography
U n i v e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a
29
Bibliography
• The J.P. Morgan guide to credit derivatives
• Credit derivatives: an overview, Federal
Reserve of Atlanta
• Derivatives in Financial Market Development,
International Growth Centre, February 2013
• Credit Default Swaps and counterparty risk,
European Central Bank, August 2009

CDS - Credit Default Swap

  • 1.
    Credit Default Swap(CDS) Finanzas Empresariales II Omar Pernas López-Sarry
  • 2.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 2 Index • Introduction • Credit Default Swap • Example • Conclusions • Bibliography
  • 3.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 3 Index • Introduction • Credit Default Swap • Example • Bibliography
  • 4.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 4 What’s a financial derivative? Derivatives are financial instruments whose payoffs derive from other, more primitive financial variables such as a stock price, a commodity price, an index level, an interest rate, or an exchange rate.
  • 5.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 5 Composition of global derivatives contracts by trading arrangement as at the end of 2014 by outstanding gross notional value
  • 6.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 6 How can derivatives be used? • Forwards and futures: to hedge an existing market exposure. • Options: to obtain downside protection to an exposure even while retaining upside potential. • Swaps: to transform the nature of an exposure. • Credit derivative: to obtain insurance against events such as default.
  • 7.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 7 Size of global OTC derivatives markets by outstanding gross notional value
  • 8.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 8 What’s gross notional outstanding value? Notional outstanding refers to the principal amount of the contracts. • If a forward contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 oz of gold at a price of $1,800/oz, the notional outstanding in the contract is $(1, 800 × 1, 000) = $1.80 million. • If an option gives the holder the right to buy 10,000 shares of Google at $500/ share, the notional outstanding in the contract is $(10, 000 × 500) = $5 million. • If a swap calls for the exchange of floating cash flows for fixed cash flows on a principal of $100 million, the notional outstanding in the swap is $100 million.
  • 9.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 9 What’s a credit derivative? Credit derivatives are derivatives written on the credit risk of an underlying reference entity. Isolate credit risk from other risks present in an asset. Are off-balance-sheet instruments.
  • 10.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 10 Isolation and separate trading of credit risk
  • 11.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 11 Credit Derivative Market Growth
  • 12.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 12 Types of credit derivatives • Credit Default Swap (CDS) • Total Return Swap • Constant Maturity Credit Default Swap (CMCDS) • First to Default Credit Default Swap • Portfolio Credit Default Swap • Secured Loan Credit Default Swap • Credit Default Swap on Asset Backed Securities • Credit default swaption • Recovery lock transaction • Credit Spread Option • CDS index products
  • 13.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 13 Index • Introduction • Credit Default Swap • Example • Bibliography
  • 14.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 14 CDS: definition A Credit Default Swap (CDS) is a kind of insurance against credit risk.
  • 15.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 15 How does a CDS work? Protection buyer (short position) Protection seller (long position) Bp per annum Contingent payment Credit event • Municipal bonds • Emerging market bonds • Mortgage-backed securities • Corporate debt Reference entity
  • 16.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 16 Three main types of CDS • Single name: The reference entity is an individual corporation, bank, or government. • Index: CDS referring to multiple constitutent entities in the index with each entity having an equal share of the notional amount. The degree of standardisation is highest for these contracts. • Basket CDS: CDS with more than one reference entity (typically between three and one hundred names). Specific types include first-to-default CDS, full basket CDS, untranched basket and tranched basket known as a synthetic CDO.
  • 17.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 17 Types of credit events • Bankruptcy: where the reference entity becomes bankrupt or suffers an analogous. • Failure to pay: where the reference entity fails to make a payment of interest or principal. • Obligation default: where the reference entity defaults on one of its obligations. • Repudiation/moratorium: where the reference entity repudiates or declares a moratorium over some or all of its debts. • Restructuring: where the reference entity arranges for some or all of its debts to be restructured causing a material change in their creditworthiness.
  • 18.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 18 CDS features Size Averaging $25 to $50 million per transaction. Time to maturity 1 to 10 years. Transaction method Direct contracting and trading between the seller and the buyer Guarantees required Not if rated >= AA Secondary market Existent Settlement Whole losses or gains at maturity Guarantying institution The own contracting parties Contract compliance Physical delivery or cash settlement
  • 19.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 19 CDS uses: hedging and Speculation • An individual or company that is exposed to a lot of credit risk can shift some of that risk by buying protection in a CDS contract. • CDS provide a very efficient way to take a view on the credit of a reference entity.
  • 20.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 20 CDS: Market risks • The market for CDS is OTC and unregulated. • Contracts often get traded so much that it is hard to know who stands at each end of a transaction. • Counterparty risk. • The possibility that a widespread downturn in the market could cause massive defaults and challenge the ability of risk buyers to pay their obligations. • Leverage.
  • 21.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 21 Index • Introduction • Credit Default Swap • Example • Bibliography
  • 22.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 22 AIG’s involvement in mortgage backed securities (MBS) Protection buyer: Lenders, investors Protection seller: AIG Bp per annum Contingent payment Credit event: Sub-prime crisis Reference entity Mortgage Backed Obligations (MBO) Returns on different tranches Borrowers Borrowers Principal + Interest $180 billion bailout
  • 23.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 23 The Big Short https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cxjdj5_ 5yNM
  • 24.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 24 CDS from business newspaper
  • 25.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 25
  • 26.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 26 The evolution of average 5-years weekly CDS spreads (bp) for strong- economy countries
  • 27.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 27 The evolution of average 5-years weekly CDS spread (bp) for PIIGS
  • 28.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 28 Index • Introduction • Credit Default Swap • Example • Bibliography
  • 29.
    U n iv e r s i d a d e d e S a n t i a g o d e C o m p o s t e l a 29 Bibliography • The J.P. Morgan guide to credit derivatives • Credit derivatives: an overview, Federal Reserve of Atlanta • Derivatives in Financial Market Development, International Growth Centre, February 2013 • Credit Default Swaps and counterparty risk, European Central Bank, August 2009