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Credit Derivatives




                        11EX-013   Bishnu Kumar
                        11EX-015   Davinder Singh
                        11EX-040   Prateek Wadhwa
                        11EX-041   Priyanka Tyagi




    Institute of Management Technology
                 Ghaziabad
Credit Derivatives


Table of Contents
Credit Derivatives .............................................................................................................................................. 2
   A definition of Credit Derivative .................................................................................................................... 2
   Types of Credit Derivatives ............................................................................................................................ 2
   Risks of Credit Derivatives ............................................................................................................................. 3
   Growth of Credit Derivatives ......................................................................................................................... 4
Credit Default Swaps ......................................................................................................................................... 5
   Types of Credit Default Swaps ....................................................................................................................... 8
   Settlement methods for CDS ......................................................................................................................... 9
   Uses of Credit Default Swaps ........................................................................................................................ 9
   CDS Pricing ................................................................................................................................................... 12
Credit Derivatives Market in India ................................................................................................................... 12
   Benefits from Credit Derivatives ................................................................................................................. 13
   Participants in the Indian Market ................................................................................................................ 13
   Minimum Conditions ................................................................................................................................... 13
   Draft CDS Guidelines ................................................................................................................................... 14
   Participants allowed .................................................................................................................................... 14
CDS & its settlement in India ........................................................................................................................... 16
Role of CCIL ...................................................................................................................................................... 17
First Credit Default Swap in India .................................................................................................................... 18
References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….19




   Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                                                                                                    1
Credit Derivatives


Credit Derivatives

   The development of credit derivatives is a logical extension of the ever-growing
array of derivatives trading in the market. The concept of a derivative is to create a
contract that transfers some risk or some volatility. Credit derivatives apply the same
notion to a credit asset. Credit asset is the asset that a provider of credit creates, such
as a loan given by a bank, or a bond held by a capital market participant. A credit
derivative enables the stripping of the loan or the bond, from the risk of default, such
that the loan or the bond can continue to be held by the originator or holder thereof,
but the risk gets transferred to the counterparty. The counterparty buys the risk
obviously for a premium, and the premium represents the rewards of the
counterparty. Thus, credit derivatives essentially use the derivatives format to acquire
or shift risks and rewards in credit assets, viz., loans or bonds, to other financial
market participants.


A definition of Credit Derivative

   Credit derivatives can be defined as arrangements that allow one party (protection
buyer or originator) to transfer, for a premium, the defined credit risk, or all the credit
risk, computed with reference to a notional value, of a reference asset or assets,
which it may or may not own, to one or more other parties (the protection sellers).
   So here the protection buyer continues to hold the reference asset (loan or bond)
and protection seller holds the risk associated with the asset (loan or bond) also called
as holding synthetic asset. The protection seller holds the risk of default, losses,
foreclosure, delinquency, prepayment, etc. and the reward of premium. There could
be two possible ways of settlement in case of credit event. In first case, physical
settlement, protection seller gives the par value of asset to the protection buyer and
protection buyer hands over the asset to the protection seller. Whereas in second
case, cash settlement the difference between the par value of the asset and the
market value of the asset is given by protection seller to the protection buyer.


Types of Credit Derivatives

   Some of the fundamental types of credit derivatives are credit default swap, total
return swap, credit linked notes, and credit spread options.

   Credit Default Swaps: A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative contract
between two counterparties. The buyer makes periodic payments to the seller, and in
return receives a payoff if an underlying financial instrument defaults. Credit default
swaps are the most important type of credit derivatives in use in the market.

   Total Return Swaps: As the name implies, a total return swap is a swap of the
total return out of a credit asset swapped against a contracted prefixed return. The
total return out of a credit asset is reflected by the actual stream of cash-flows from
the reference asset as also the actual appreciation/depreciation in its price over time,
and can be affected by various factors, some of which may be quite extraneous to the
asset in question, such as interest rate movements. Nevertheless, the protection
seller here guarantees a prefixed spread to the protection buyer, who in turn, agrees
to pass on the actual collections and actual variations in prices on the credit asset to

  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                          2
Credit Derivatives


the protection seller. Total Return Swap is also known as Total Rate of Return Swap
(TRORS).

   Credit Linked Notes: It is a security with an embedded credit default swap
allowing the issuer (protection buyer) to transfer a specific credit risk to credit
investors. CLNs are created through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), or trust, which is
collateralized with securities. Investors buy securities from a trust that pays a fixed or
floating coupon during the life of the note. At maturity, the investors receive par
unless the referenced credit defaults or declares bankruptcy, in which case they
receive an amount equal to the recovery rate. The trust enters into a default swap
with a deal arranger. In case of default, the trust pays the dealer par minus the
recovery rate in exchange for an annual fee which is passed on to the investors in the
form of a higher yield on the notes.

   Credit Spread Options: A financial derivative contract that transfers credit risk
from one party to another. A premium is paid by the buyer in exchange for potential
cash flows if a given credit spread changes from its current level. The buyer of credit
spread put option hopes that credit spread will widen and credit spread call buyer
hopes for narrowing of credit spread. It can be viewed as similar to that of credit
default swaps but it hedges also against credit deterioration along with default.
Consider the buyer of credit spread put: he/she pays a premium for the put. If the
bond (the reference entity) deteriorates, the spread on the bond will increase and the
buyer will profit. But if the bond quality increases, the credit spread will narrow, bond
price will decrease, and the put will be worthless (i.e., put buyer has lost the
premium). In summary, the credit spread put buyer wants to hedge against price
deterioration and/or default risk of the obligation.




   The payoff is -
         Duration (D) x Notional (N) x [credit spread (-) strike spread; CS - K].


Risks of Credit Derivatives

   Various risks associated with credit derivatives are credit risk, market risk, and
legal risk.

   Credit Risk: The protection seller is having a credit risk related to underlying
reference asset because protection seller synthetically holds the asset and needs to do
due diligence to counter this risk. Another risk is associated is counterparty risk
against protection seller if he fails to make good of his obligations.
   Market Risk: Market risk is associated with credit derivatives traders as the prices
of the instruments are a function of interest rates, the shape of the yield curve, and

  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         3
Credit Derivatives


credit spread. Other types of risks involved are marking to market risk, margin call
risks, etc.

   Legal Risk: Lack of standard documentation and agreement as to the definitions of
credit event leads to legal risks. Usage of master agreements though has simplified
and homogenized the trading of credit derivatives. More efforts are being taken
recently to counter this risk with International Swaps and Derivatives Association
(ISDA) taking active role in it. The most important legal issues still revolves around
the nature of credit event and the nature of obligations.


Growth of Credit Derivatives

   Within no time credit derivatives have grown to a great extent to be a big part of
derivatives segment after interest rate contracts (82% Q4‟08) and foreign exchange
contracts (8.4% Q4‟08) as per notional amounts outstanding (Credit derivatives –
7.9% Q4‟08.
   Much of the significance credit derivatives enjoy today is because of the
marketability imparted by securitization. A securitized credit derivative, or synthetic
securitization, is a device of embedding a credit derivative feature into a capital
market security so as to transfer the credit risk into the capital markets. The synthesis
of credit derivatives with securitization methodology has complimented each other.
This had allowed keeping the portfolio of assets on the books but transferring the
credit risk associated with it. The index products have also contributed to the
increasing popularity of credit derivatives. It provides a means to buy or sell exposure
to a broad-based indices, or sub-indices diversifying the risks instead to buying or
selling exposure to the credit risk of a single entity.
   The third important factor contributing to the growth of credit derivatives is
structured credit trading or tranching. Here the portfolio of assets is divided into
various subclasses known as tranches (means slice in French) to fulfill the risk
appetite of various investors. The tranches are divided into various levels like senior
tranche, mezzanine tranche, subordinate tranche, and equity tranche with the risk of
default rising in a sequence for these tranches. Talking about the growth of credit
derivatives from year-end 2003 to 2008,
credit derivative contracts grew at a
100% compounded annual growth rate.
But due to the global turmoil the growth
has been curtailed from the end of
2007.
   The composition of credit derivatives
is shown in the figure. As can be seen
credit default swaps dominates the
composition      of   credit   derivatives
followed by total return swaps. The
composition of credit default swaps
sometimes makes people believe that
credit derivatives are nothing but credit
default swaps.




  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                        4
Credit Derivatives


Credit Default Swaps

Origin of CDS

   By the mid-'90s, JPMorgan's books were loaded with billions of dollars in loans to
corporations and foreign governments, and by federal law it had to keep huge
amounts of capital in reserve in case any of them went bad. But what if JPMorgan
could create a device that would protect it if those loans defaulted, and free up that
capital? And the solution they come up with is nothing but the origin of “Credit Default
Swap”.
   Credit Default Swap (CDS) is some sort of insurance policy where the third party
assumes the risk of debt going sour and in exchange will receive regular payments
from the bank who issues debt, similar to insurance premiums. Although the idea was
floating for a while JP Morgan was the first bank to make a bet on CDS. They opened
up a Swap desk in mid-„90s and formally brought the idea of CDS into reality.

Definition

   A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative contract between two
counterparties. The buyer makes periodic payments to the seller, and in return
receives a payoff if an underlying financial instrument defaults.

   There are three parties involved in a typical CDS contract –
   1. Protection Buyer (Risk Hedger)
   2. Protection Seller
   3. Reference Entity

   Protection buyer is the one who pays a premium (CDS spread, generally a quarterly
premium) to the protection seller for taking credit risk to a reference entity and if the
credit event happens then protection seller will have to pay off. Typical credit events
include – material default, bankruptcy, and debt restructuring. The size of the
payment is usually linked to the decline in the reference asset‟s market value
following the credit event. The concept of CDS is explained pictorially in Figure 1.

   The interesting thing about CDS market is you don‟t need to own the underlying
reference entity to get into the contract. Such contract is known as naked CDS. Just
like any derivatives market CDS can be used for speculation, hedging and arbitrage
purpose.

Significance of Credit Default Swaps

  CDS creates Liquidity: The CDS adds depth to the secondary market of
underlying credit instruments which may not be liquid for many reasons.
   Risk Management: Credit derivatives makes risk management more efficient and
flexible by allocation of credit risk to most efficient manager of that risk.
   Risk Separation: Credit derivatives allows for separation of credit risk from other
risks of the asset.
   Reliable funding source: Credit derivatives help exploit a funding advantage or
avoiding a funding disadvantage. Since there is no up-front principal outlay required
for most Protection Sellers when assuming a Credit Swap position, these provide an

  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                        5
Credit Derivatives


opportunity to take on credit exposure in off balance-sheet positions that do not need
to be funded. On the other hand, institutions with low funding costs may capitalize on
this advantage by funding assets on the balance sheet and purchasing default
protection on those assets. The premium for buying default protection on such assets
may be less than the net spread such a bank would earn over its funding costs.




                                              Figure 1


CDS Premium

  Premium prices – also known as fees or credit default spreads – are quoted in basis
point per annum of the contract‟s notional value. In case of highly distressed credits in
which CDS market remains open upfront premium payment is a common thing. The
CDS spread is inversely related to the credit worthiness of the underlying reference
entity.

CDS Size & Price

  There are no predetermined limits on the size or maturity of CDS contracts, which
have ranged in size from a few million to several billions of dollars. In general the
contracts are concentrated in the $10 million to $20 million range with maturities of
between one and 10 years, although 5 years maturities are the most common.



  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                        6
Credit Derivatives


   Inevitably, the maturity of a CDS will depend on the credit quality of the reference
entity, with longer-dated contracts of five years and more only written on the best-
rated names. Although there are differences in the quotes given by banks on CDS
prices due to some technical reasons rather than financial reasons, but the CDS
premium price more or less remains the same. Over and above a valuation of credit
risk, probability of default, actual loss incurred, and recovery rate, the various factors
in determination of CDS premium are – liquidity, regulatory capital requirements,
market sentiments and perceived volatility, etc.

Trigger Events

  The market participants view the following three to be the most important trigger
events:

          Bankruptcy
          Failure to Pay
          Restructuring

   Bankruptcy, the clearest concept of all, is the reference entity‟s insolvency or
inability to repay its debt. Failure-to-Pay occurs when the reference entity, after a
certain grace period, fails to make payment of principal or interest. Restructuring
refers to a change in the terms of debt obligations that are adverse to the creditors.

Growth of CDS Market

   Since the inception of the CDS market its growth has been astounding. The growth
of CDS market over the period has been shown in the figure. As the market matured,
CDSs came to be used less by banks seeking to hedge against default and more by
investors wishing to bet for or against the likelihood that particular companies or
portfolios would suffer financial difficulties as well as those seeking to profit from
perceived mispricing; the rapid growth of index compared with single name CDS after
2003 reflected this change.

   The market size
for Credit Default
Swaps began to grow
rapidly from 2003;
by the end of 2007,
the CDS market had
a notional value of
$62 trillion (as seen
in the above figure).
But notional amount
began to fall during
2008 as a result of
dealer        "portfolio
compression" efforts,
and by the end of
2008            notional
amount outstanding
had fallen 38 percent
to $38.6 trillion.

  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         7
Credit Derivatives


   It is important to note that since default is a relatively rare occurrence (historically
around 0.2% of investment grade companies would default in any one year) in most
CDS contracts the only payments are the spread payments from buyer to seller. Thus,
although the above figures for outstanding notional amount sound very large, the net
cash flows will generally only be a small fraction of this total.
   Currently CDS dominates the credit derivatives market with its unprecedented
growth. Although after the subprime crisis (which will be discussed later) the credit
derivatives market, in the 4th quarter of 2008, reported credit derivatives notionals
declined 2%, or $252 billion, to $15.9 trillion, reflecting the industry‟s efforts to
eliminate many offsetting trades (Reference: OCC‟s Quarterly Report).




   As shown in the chart above CDS represent the dominant product at 98% of all
credit derivatives notionals. As we can see from the other chart although majority of
the CDSs composition is dominated by the investment grade CDSs sub-investment
grade CDSs also forms a significant part of CDSs (34%) which is considered to be one
of prime cause for subprime crisis. Considering the global OTC market, the CDS
accounts for about 8%.


Types of Credit Default Swaps

   The CDSs can be classified as Single-name CDSs or Multi-name CDSs.

          Single-name CDS: These are credit derivatives where the reference entity
           is a single name.

          Multi-name CDS: CDS contracts where the reference entity is more than
           one name as in portfolio or basket credit default swaps or credit default swap
           indices. A basket credit default swap is a CDS where the credit event is the
           default of some combination of the credits in a specified basket of credits. In
           the particular case of an nth-to-default basket it is the nth credit in the
           basket of reference credits whose default triggers payments.

  Another common form of multi-name CDS is that of the “tranched” credit default
swap. Variations operate under specifically tailored loss limits – these may include a


  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                          8
Credit Derivatives


“first loss” tranched CDS, a “mezzanine” tranched CDS, and a senior (also known as a
“super-senior”) tranched CDS.


Settlement methods for CDS

  The settlement for CDSs can be done in either of two ways: Physical Settlement or
Cash Settlement.

     Physical Settlement: The seller of the protection will buy back the distressed
      reference entity at par. Clearly given that the credit event will have reduced the
      secondary market value of the underlying reference entity, this will result in
      protection seller (CDS seller) incurring a loss. This was the most common means
      for the settlement in CDSs and will generally take place no later than 30 days
      after the credit event. Till 2006 ISDA2 allowed settlement only in the form of
      physical settlement. But due to increased amount of naked CDSs in the credit
      market ISDA has now allowed the choice between cash and physical settlement.

     Cash Settlement: The seller of the protection will pay the buyer the difference
      between the notional of the default swap and a final value for the same notional
      of the reference obligation. Cash settlement is less prevalent because obtaining
      precise quotes can be difficult when the reference credit is distressed. After the
      Auction process being started for the settlement of CDSs as per ISDA, this
      problem has been resolved.

  The example for the Physical and Cash settlement shown below will explain the
process.


Uses of Credit Default Swaps

   As mentioned already CDSs can be used for speculation, hedging or arbitrage. Out
of which we will be considering
hedging and speculation in
detail.

CDS for Hedging

   When JP Morgan invented
the credit instrument named
CDS they meant it to be for
hedging    their  credit    risk.
Although market has changed a
lot since then but still the use
of CDSs for hedging purpose
remains to be a primary
reason.
   Credit default swaps are
often used to manage the
credit risk (i.e. the risk of
default) which arises from
holding debt. Typically, the

  Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                        9
Credit Derivatives


holder of, for example, a corporate bond may hedge their exposure by entering into a
CDS contract as the buyer of protection. If the bond goes into default, the proceeds
from the CDS contract will cancel out the losses on the underlying bond.
   For example, if you own a bond of Apple worth $10 million maturing after 5 years
and you are worried about its future then you can create a CDS contract with an
insurance company like AIG which will charge a premium of say 200bps annually for
insuring your bond. In this way you are hedging the risk of losing $10 million in case
Apple goes bankrupt. Here you will be paying $200000 to AIG for insuring your bond.
If Apple goes bankrupt you will receive the par value of bond from AIG and even if
does not, you will lose premium value at the most which is worth transferring the risk
to AIG.

Counterparty Risks

  When entering into a CDS, both the buyer and seller of credit protection take on
counterparty risk. Examples of counter party risks:

     The buyer takes the risk that the seller will default. If reference entity and seller
      default simultaneously ("double default"), the buyer loses its protection against
      default by the reference entity. If seller defaults but reference entity does not,
      the buyer might need to replace the defaulted CDS at a higher cost.
     The seller takes the risk that the buyer will default on the contract, depriving the
      seller of the expected revenue stream. More important, a seller normally limits
      its risk by buying offsetting protection from another party - that is, it hedges its
      exposure. If the original buyer drops out, the seller squares its position by either
      unwinding the hedge transaction or by selling a new CDS to a third party.
      Depending on market conditions, that may be at a lower price than the original
      CDS and may therefore involve a loss to the seller.

   As is true with other forms of over-the-counter derivative, CDS might involve
liquidity risk. If one or both parties to a CDS contract must post collateral (which is
common), there can be margin calls requiring the posting of additional collateral. The
required collateral is agreed on by the parties when the CDS is first issued. This
margin amount may vary over the life of the CDS contract, if the market price of the
CDS contracts changes, or the credit rating of one of the party‟s changes.

CDSs for Speculation

    Credit default swaps allow investors to speculate on changes in CDS spreads of
single names or of market indexes such as the North American CDX index3 or the
European iTraxx index4. An investor might speculate on an entity's credit quality,
since generally CDS spreads will increase as credit-worthiness declines and decline as
credit-worthiness increases. The investor might therefore buy CDS protection on a
company in order to speculate that the company is about to default. Alternatively, the
investor might sell protection if they think that the company's creditworthiness might
improve. As there is no need to own an underlying entity to enter into a CDS contract
it can be viewed as a betting or gambling tool.
    For example if you feel that Microsoft is not performing well and may go bankrupt
in near future then you might enter into a CDS contract with AIG for a notional value
of $10 million for 5 years even if you don‟t own a single share of Microsoft. This kind
of CDS is known as Naked CDS.


Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                           10
Credit Derivatives


Changing Nature of CDS Market towards Speculation

   CDS was originally meant for hedging but as market matured the market has
moved more towards using it for speculation purpose. Speculation entered the CDS
market in three forms: 1) using structured investment vehicles such as MBS, ABS,
CDO and SIV securities as the underlying asset, 2) creating CDS between parties
without any connection to the underlying asset, and 3) development of a secondary
market for CDS.
   Much has been written about the structured investment vehicle market and the lack
of understanding of what was included in the various products. Sellers of protection in
the CDS market more than likely did not have sufficient understating of the underlying
asset to determine an appropriate risk profile (plus there was no history of these
products to assist in determining a risk profile). As it has become clear, the structured
investment vehicle market was a speculative market which was not really understood
which led to speculative CDS related to these products.
   A larger problem is the pure speculation in the CDS market. Many hedge funds and
investment companies started to write CDS contracts without owning the underlying
security, but were just a "bet" on whether a "credit event" would occur. These CDS
contracts created a way to "short" sell the bond market, or to make money on the
decline in the value of bonds. Many hedge funds and other investment companies
often place "bets" on the price movement of commodities, interest rates, and many
other items, and now had a vehicle to "short" the credit markets.

  [Actually CDS can be viewed as short in bond and buying a put option. Because in
the case of default protection buyer will have to give the underlying reference entity
(bond) to the protection seller (in case of physical settlement) so shorting the bond.
While protection seller will have to pay the par amount to protection buyer in case of
default hence can be viewed to be a put option. The payout to credit protection buyer
can be described as –
  Asset value at the time of swap – Asset market value;
  Payout to investor = if default
  0; if no default

   So above expression can be viewed as binary put option based on two states of the
world: default and no default.]
   A still larger problem was the development of a secondary market for both legs of
the CDS product, particularly the seller of protection. The problem may be that a
"weak link" would occur in the chain of sales even if the CDS terms are the same. The
"weak link" is often a speculative buyer that offers to sell protection, but, in fact, is
just looking to quickly turn the product to another investor. This problem becomes
particularly acute when the CDS is based on structured investment vehicles and firms
looking for a quick profit.
   An insurance company may unknowingly be pulled into one of these speculative
aspects of the CDS market. The insurance company would be viewed as "the deep
pocket" and may be asked (or sued) to recover losses by the buyer of protection.




Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         11
Credit Derivatives


CDS is not insurance

  In many terms CDS is like an insurance policy where there is a regular premium to
be paid, there is a reference entity and in case of default a pay-off will be paid. But
CDS differs in many aspects from insurance like –
   The seller need not be a regulated entity
   The seller is not required to maintain any reserves to pay off buyers, although
      major CDS dealers are subject to bank capital requirements (because CDS
      dealers are generally banks).
   Insurers manage risk primarily by setting loss reserves based on the Law of
      large numbers, while dealers in CDS manage risk primarily by means of
      offsetting CDS (hedging) with other dealers and transactions in underlying bond
      markets.
   In the United States CDS contracts are generally subject to mark to market
      accounting, introducing income statement and balance sheet volatility that
      would not be present in an insurance contract.
   The buyer of a CDS does not need to own the underlying security or other form
      of credit exposure; in fact the buyer does not even have to suffer a loss from
      the default event. By contrast, to purchase insurance the insured is generally
      expected to have an insurable interest such as owning a debt.


CDS Pricing

   The main aim of CDS pricing is to calculate the amount of premium to be paid by
protection buyer to the protection seller. For calculating the CDS premium we need to
know the Recovery Rate and Probability of Default. Simple explanation of calculating
CDS premium (spread) for a 1-year CDS contract (with yearly premium) is shown
below.
   Let S = CDS premium (spread), p = probability of default, R = recovery rate.
   The protection buyer expects to pay S. And his expected payoff is (1-R) p.
   When the two parties enter a CDS contract, S is set so that the value of swap
transaction is zero. That is,
                                        S = (1-R) p


Credit Derivatives Market in India

   Banks are major players in the credit market and are, therefore, exposed to credit
risk. Credit market is considered to be an inefficient market with market players like
banks and financial institutions mostly have loans and little of bonds in their portfolios
while mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds have mostly
bonds in their portfolios, with little access to loans, depriving them of high returns of
loans portfolios. The market in the past did not provide the necessary credit risk
protection to banks and financial institutions. Neither did it provide any mechanism to
the mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds to have an
access to loan market to diversify their risks and earn better return. Credit derivatives
were, therefore, developed to provide a solution to the inefficiencies in the credit
market. Internationally, banks are able to protect themselves from the credit risk
through the mechanism of credit derivatives. However, credit derivative has not yet
been used by banks and financial institutions in India in a formal way.


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Credit Derivatives




Benefits from Credit Derivatives
   Banks and Financial Institutions currently require a mechanism that would allow
them to provide long term financing without taking the credit risk if they so desire.
Currently banks and financial institutions need to hold their portfolios on books
depriving them of diversifying the portfolio as well as making them forgo some of the
opportunities. Also non-banking institutions loses on some of the opportunities of
holding high yielding portfolios like loans.
   Credit derivatives would help resolve these issues. Banks and the financial
institutions derive four main benefits from credit derivatives, namely:
   Credit derivatives allow banks to transfer credit risk and hence free up capital,
      which can be used in productive opportunities.
   Banks can conduct business on existing client relationships in excess of exposure
      norms and transfer away the risks.
   Banks can construct and manage a credit risk portfolio of their own choice and
      risk appetite unconstrained by funds, distribution and sales effort. Banks can
      acquire exposure to, and returns on, an asset or a portfolio of assets by simply
      writing a credit protection.
   Credit risk would be diversified – from banks/FIs alone to other players in the
      financial markets and lead to financial stability.

  Apart from above mentioned benefits credit derivatives also provides better liquidity
than the existing mechanisms of managing the risks like insurance, guarantee,
securitization, etc. It also allows financial intermediaries to gain access to high gain
portfolios.


Participants in the Indian Market
   In order to ensure that the credit market functions efficiently, it is important to
maximize the number of participants in the market to encompass banks, financial
institutions, NBFCs (all regulated by RBI), mutual funds, insurance companies and
corporates.


Minimum Conditions
  As per Report of the Working Group on Introduction of Credit Derivatives in India
by Department of Banking Operations and Development the bank should fulfill
minimum conditions relating to risk management processes and that the credit
derivative should be direct, explicit, irrevocable and unconditional. These conditions
are explained below.
   Direct: The credit protection must represent a direct claim on the protection
     provider.
   Explicit: The credit protection must be linked to specific exposures, so that the
     extent of the cover is clearly defined and incontrovertible.
   Irrevocable: Other than a protection purchaser‟s non-payment of money due in
     respect of the credit protection contract, there must be no clause in the contract
     that would allow the protection provider unilaterally to cancel the credit cover.
   Unconditional: There should be no clause in the protection contract that could
     prevent the protection provider from being obliged to pay out in a timely manner
     in the event that the original obligor fails to make the payment(s) due.


Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                        13
Credit Derivatives


Draft CDS Guidelines
  Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has come out with draft guidelines on Credit Default
Swap (CDS) per notification dated May 2007. The details of which are as follows:



Participants allowed

Protection Buyers:
   Commercial banks and Primary dealers
   A protection buyer shall have an underlying credit risk exposure in the form of
     permissible underlying asset / obligation

Protection Sellers:
   Commercial banks and Primary dealers
   RBI will consider allowing insurance companies and mutual funds as protection
     buyer or protection seller as and when their respective regulators permit them to
     transact in credit default swaps.

Product Requirements:

   Structure: A CDS may be used –
    By the eligible protection buyers, for buying protection on specified loans and
     advances, or investments where the protection buyer has a credit risk exposure.
    By the eligible protection sellers, for selling protection on specified loans and
     advances, or investments on which the protection buyer has a credit risk
     exposure.

   Settlement Methods:
    Physical Settlement
    Cash Settlement
    Fixed Amount Settlement (binary CDS)

   Documentation:
    1992 or 2002 ISDA Master Agreement compliance.
    2003 ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions and subsequent supplements to
     definitions compliance.
    Documenting the establishment of the legal enforceability of the contracts in all
     relevant jurisdictions before undertaking CDS transactions.

   Credit Events:
    Bankruptcy
    Obligation Acceleration
    Obligation Default
    Failure to pay
    Repudiation/ Moratorium
    Restructuring




Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                       14
Credit Derivatives


   Minimum Requirements:
    A CDS contract must represent a direct claim on the protection seller and must
       be explicitly referenced to specific exposures of the protection buyer, so that
       the extent of the cover is clearly defined and indisputable. It must be
       irrevocable.
    The CDS contract shall not have any clause that could prevent the protection
       seller from making the credit event payment in a timely manner after
       occurrence of the credit event and completion of necessary formalities in terms
       of the contract.
    The protection seller shall have no recourse to the protection buyer for losses.
    The credit events specified in the CDS contract shall contain as wide a range of
       triggers as possible with a view to adequately cover the credit risk in the
       underlying / reference asset and, at a minimum, cover –
            o Failure to pay
            o Bankruptcy, insolvency or inability of the obligor to pay its debts
            o Restructuring of the underlying obligation involving forgiveness or
              postponement of principal, interest or fees that results in a credit loss
              event
    CDS contracts must have a clearly specified period for obtaining post-credit-
       event valuations of the reference asset, typically no more than 30 days
    The credit protection must be legally enforceable in all relevant jurisdictions
    The underlying asset/ obligation shall have equal seniority with, or greater
       seniority than, the reference asset/ obligation.
    The protection buyer must have the right/ability to transfer the reference/
       deliverable asset/ obligation to the protection seller, if required for settlement
       (in case of physical settlement).
    The credit risk transfer should not contravene any terms and conditions relating
       to the reference / deliverable / underlying asset / obligation and where
       necessary all consents should have been obtained.
    The credit derivative shall not terminate prior to expiration of any grace period
       required for a default on the underlying obligation to occur as a result of a
       failure to pay. The grace period in the credit derivative contract must not be
       longer than the grace period agreed upon under the loan agreement.
    The identity of the parties responsible for determining whether a credit event
       has occurred must be clearly defined. This determination must not be the sole
       responsibility of the protection seller. The protection buyer must have the
       right/ability to inform the protection seller of the occurrence of a credit event.
    Where there is an asset mismatch between the underlying asset/ obligation and
       the reference asset/ obligation then:
            o The reference and underlying assets/ obligations must be issued by the
              same obligor (i.e. the same legal entity)
            o The reference asset must rank pari passu or more junior than the
              underlying asset/ obligation; and
            o There are legally effective cross-reference clauses between the reference
              asset and the underlying asset.




Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         15
Credit Derivatives



Risk Management:

       Banks should consider carefully all related risks and rewards before entering the
        credit derivatives market. They should not enter into such transaction unless
        their management has the ability to understand and manage properly the credit
        and other risks associated with these instruments. They should establish sound
        risk management policy and procedures integrated into their overall risk
        management.
       Banks which are protection buyers should periodically assess the ability of the
        protection sellers to make the credit event payment as and when they may fall
        due. The results of such assessments should be used to review the counterparty
        limits.
       Banks should be aware of the potential legal risk arising from an unenforceable
        contract, e.g. due to inadequate documentation, lack of authority for a
        counterparty to enter into the contract, etc.
       The credit derivatives activity to be undertaken by bank should be under the
        adequate oversight of its Board of Directors and senior management (via a copy
        of a resolution passed by their Board of Directors or via adequate MIS).

Procedures: The bank should have adequate procedures for:
  Measuring, monitoring, reviewing, reporting and managing the associated risks.
  Full analysis of all credit risks to which the banks will be exposed, the
    minimization and management of such risks.
  Ensuring that the credit risk of a reference asset is captured in the bank‟s normal
    credit approval and monitoring regime.
  Management of market risk associated with credit derivatives held by banks in
    their trading books by measuring portfolio exposures at least daily using robust
    market accepted methodology.
  Management of the potential legal risk arising from unenforceable contracts and
    uncertain payment procedures.
  Determination of an appropriate liquidity reserve to be held against uncertainty
    in valuation.

  Now after understanding the need for credit derivatives and the draft guidelines
provided by RBI we will now understand the possible settlement procedures to be
adopted for CDS contracts.


CDS & its settlement in India

   The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken the first step towards introducing credit
default swaps (CDS) to India‟s financial markets by sending out feelers to a number of
banks with a view to gauging the acceptability of CDS contracts. The questionnaire
sent by RBI to the banks enquires about bankers‟ expectations from the derivative
instrument. Although CDSs for the Indian companies like ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, SBI
etc. are already traded in US and some Asian market it is yet to be traded in Indian
market. And RBI is looking at CDS for debt issued in the domestic market. The move
by RBI to launch CDS in India is considered significant considering its cautious nature
and the role CDS played in subprime crisis. The move is welcomed by some of the
banks. “There is surely a need for such a product (CDS)” said Ashish Vaidya, head of


Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         16
Credit Derivatives


interest rate trading at HDFC Bank. “Indian regulators have the benefit of learning
from the difficult experience (in derivatives) in the West and can build in a robust
system that effectively curtails the concentration of risks in a few hands”. RBI expects
to develop the corporate bond market through the introduction of CDS contracts.

CDS Settlement in India:
  The CDS market will be an OTC market in India which means the deals between
    the protection buyer and the protection seller will be bilateral deals making them
    do the negotiation and pricing for the CDS contracts.
  In the infancy stage of CDS market in India one can have a trade reporting
    platform which will be gathering all the information about the trades happening.
    This will provide the required transparency and help in gaining the confidence in
    the product.
  Once the market matures one can think of having an electronic order matching
    platform with central counterparty settlement (like CCIL).


Role of CCIL

   The Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) was set up with the prime objective to
improve efficiency in the transaction settlement process, insulate the financial system
from shocks emanating from operations related issues, and to undertake other related
activities that would help to broaden and deepen the Money, Gilts and Forex markets
in India. The role of CCIL is unique as it provides settlement of three different
products under one umbrella. It has been instrumental in setting up and running
electronic trading platforms like NDS-OM, NDS-Call and NDS-Auction system for the
central bank that had helped the Indian market to evolve and grow immensely. It had
also immensely bolstered CCIL's image in terms of ability to provide transparent,
efficient, robust and cost effective end to end solutions to market participants in
various markets. The introduction of ClearCorp14 Repo Order Matching System
(CROMS), an anonymous Repo trading platform, has also changed the trading pattern
in Repo market i.e. shifting of interest from specific security to basket of securities.
The success of its money market product 'CBLO' has helped the market participants as
well as RBI to find a solution to unusual dependence on uncollateralized call market.
The total settlement volume during 2009-10 in government securities, forex market
and CBLO stood at Rs.14934 billion, Rs.25424 billion, and Rs.20433 billion
respectively.
   The CCIL already has the necessary infrastructure for the settlement of OTC
products like interest rate swaps and forward rate agreement. CCIL already has a
trade reporting platform for IRS which provides non-guaranteed settlement for the
reported trades. Now CCIL is moving towards the guaranteed settlement of IRS which
will involve trade matching, initial and MTM margining, exposure check, novation,
multilateral netting, default handling etc. On this backdrop one can say CCIL is well
equipped with all its experience to act as central counterparty for the settlement of
CDS contracts.
   But before the introduction of CDS contracts in India, there are some issues that
need to be handled for the effective CDS market. Those are –
   Although RBI has allowed insurance companies and mutual funds as protection
      buyer or protection seller, the permission of respective regulators needs to be
      addressed quickly before making CDS market open. Otherwise it may obstruct
      the stipulated expeditious growth of the CDS in India and will also defeat the


Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         17
Credit Derivatives


      purpose of CDS, i.e., to maximize the number of participants in the market and
      transmit the credit risk from the banking system to other risk seeking financial
      entities.
     As per the draft guidelines provided by RBI restructuring is considered as a credit
      event which has created many legal disputes in the global CDS market.
      Considering the complexities associated with the restructuring, restructuring as a
      credit event has been removed from North American CDS contracts. So more
      clear information on restructuring as credit event is required.
     As CDS contract in India is only allowed if the protection buyer bears the loss
      making it similar to insurance. Considering this close proximity of CDS contract
      with that of insurance contract, CDS contract should be made to be out of the
      purview of regulations of insurance contract making it incontrovertible.

  Although CDS has helped in perforation of subprime crisis which has created
negative vibes about CDS but CDS as in instrument is very effective means of hedging
your risk. And in India it is expected to provide the needed push to the corporate
bond market. So it won‟t be long for the CDS market to pick up in India.


First Credit Default Swap in India

   The first credit-default-swap trades offering protection on Indian corporate bonds
were completed on Dec 7, 2011, according to separate statements from India's IDBI
Bank and ICICI Bank.
   IDBI said it underwrote one CDS transaction and ICICI said it was responsible for
another. The combined trade sizes totalled $1.9 million, according to the Clearing
Corporation of India, Ltd., and comprised a pair of trades each worth 50 million
rupees.
   The protection was sold on bonds issued by India's Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd., a
lender to the power sector, and Indian Railway Finance Corp. Ltd.
   The buyers of protection paid 90 basis points. One basis point translates to $1,000
a year on a derivatives contract used to protect $10 million of debt against default for
five years.




Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                         18
Credit Derivatives




   References
   -Investopedia.com
   -Introduction to Credit Derivative Article by Vinod Kothari
   -hereisthecity.com
   -Futures and Options by J.C. Hull
   -RBI warms up to credit default swaps”, The Economic Times, dated 30 June 2009
   -OCC‟s Quarterly Report
   -ISDA
   -Call Reports
   -CCIL




Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad                                   19

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Fim project credit derivatives in india

  • 1. Credit Derivatives 11EX-013 Bishnu Kumar 11EX-015 Davinder Singh 11EX-040 Prateek Wadhwa 11EX-041 Priyanka Tyagi Institute of Management Technology Ghaziabad
  • 2. Credit Derivatives Table of Contents Credit Derivatives .............................................................................................................................................. 2 A definition of Credit Derivative .................................................................................................................... 2 Types of Credit Derivatives ............................................................................................................................ 2 Risks of Credit Derivatives ............................................................................................................................. 3 Growth of Credit Derivatives ......................................................................................................................... 4 Credit Default Swaps ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Types of Credit Default Swaps ....................................................................................................................... 8 Settlement methods for CDS ......................................................................................................................... 9 Uses of Credit Default Swaps ........................................................................................................................ 9 CDS Pricing ................................................................................................................................................... 12 Credit Derivatives Market in India ................................................................................................................... 12 Benefits from Credit Derivatives ................................................................................................................. 13 Participants in the Indian Market ................................................................................................................ 13 Minimum Conditions ................................................................................................................................... 13 Draft CDS Guidelines ................................................................................................................................... 14 Participants allowed .................................................................................................................................... 14 CDS & its settlement in India ........................................................................................................................... 16 Role of CCIL ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 First Credit Default Swap in India .................................................................................................................... 18 References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….19 Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 1
  • 3. Credit Derivatives Credit Derivatives The development of credit derivatives is a logical extension of the ever-growing array of derivatives trading in the market. The concept of a derivative is to create a contract that transfers some risk or some volatility. Credit derivatives apply the same notion to a credit asset. Credit asset is the asset that a provider of credit creates, such as a loan given by a bank, or a bond held by a capital market participant. A credit derivative enables the stripping of the loan or the bond, from the risk of default, such that the loan or the bond can continue to be held by the originator or holder thereof, but the risk gets transferred to the counterparty. The counterparty buys the risk obviously for a premium, and the premium represents the rewards of the counterparty. Thus, credit derivatives essentially use the derivatives format to acquire or shift risks and rewards in credit assets, viz., loans or bonds, to other financial market participants. A definition of Credit Derivative Credit derivatives can be defined as arrangements that allow one party (protection buyer or originator) to transfer, for a premium, the defined credit risk, or all the credit risk, computed with reference to a notional value, of a reference asset or assets, which it may or may not own, to one or more other parties (the protection sellers). So here the protection buyer continues to hold the reference asset (loan or bond) and protection seller holds the risk associated with the asset (loan or bond) also called as holding synthetic asset. The protection seller holds the risk of default, losses, foreclosure, delinquency, prepayment, etc. and the reward of premium. There could be two possible ways of settlement in case of credit event. In first case, physical settlement, protection seller gives the par value of asset to the protection buyer and protection buyer hands over the asset to the protection seller. Whereas in second case, cash settlement the difference between the par value of the asset and the market value of the asset is given by protection seller to the protection buyer. Types of Credit Derivatives Some of the fundamental types of credit derivatives are credit default swap, total return swap, credit linked notes, and credit spread options. Credit Default Swaps: A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative contract between two counterparties. The buyer makes periodic payments to the seller, and in return receives a payoff if an underlying financial instrument defaults. Credit default swaps are the most important type of credit derivatives in use in the market. Total Return Swaps: As the name implies, a total return swap is a swap of the total return out of a credit asset swapped against a contracted prefixed return. The total return out of a credit asset is reflected by the actual stream of cash-flows from the reference asset as also the actual appreciation/depreciation in its price over time, and can be affected by various factors, some of which may be quite extraneous to the asset in question, such as interest rate movements. Nevertheless, the protection seller here guarantees a prefixed spread to the protection buyer, who in turn, agrees to pass on the actual collections and actual variations in prices on the credit asset to Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 2
  • 4. Credit Derivatives the protection seller. Total Return Swap is also known as Total Rate of Return Swap (TRORS). Credit Linked Notes: It is a security with an embedded credit default swap allowing the issuer (protection buyer) to transfer a specific credit risk to credit investors. CLNs are created through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), or trust, which is collateralized with securities. Investors buy securities from a trust that pays a fixed or floating coupon during the life of the note. At maturity, the investors receive par unless the referenced credit defaults or declares bankruptcy, in which case they receive an amount equal to the recovery rate. The trust enters into a default swap with a deal arranger. In case of default, the trust pays the dealer par minus the recovery rate in exchange for an annual fee which is passed on to the investors in the form of a higher yield on the notes. Credit Spread Options: A financial derivative contract that transfers credit risk from one party to another. A premium is paid by the buyer in exchange for potential cash flows if a given credit spread changes from its current level. The buyer of credit spread put option hopes that credit spread will widen and credit spread call buyer hopes for narrowing of credit spread. It can be viewed as similar to that of credit default swaps but it hedges also against credit deterioration along with default. Consider the buyer of credit spread put: he/she pays a premium for the put. If the bond (the reference entity) deteriorates, the spread on the bond will increase and the buyer will profit. But if the bond quality increases, the credit spread will narrow, bond price will decrease, and the put will be worthless (i.e., put buyer has lost the premium). In summary, the credit spread put buyer wants to hedge against price deterioration and/or default risk of the obligation. The payoff is - Duration (D) x Notional (N) x [credit spread (-) strike spread; CS - K]. Risks of Credit Derivatives Various risks associated with credit derivatives are credit risk, market risk, and legal risk. Credit Risk: The protection seller is having a credit risk related to underlying reference asset because protection seller synthetically holds the asset and needs to do due diligence to counter this risk. Another risk is associated is counterparty risk against protection seller if he fails to make good of his obligations. Market Risk: Market risk is associated with credit derivatives traders as the prices of the instruments are a function of interest rates, the shape of the yield curve, and Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 3
  • 5. Credit Derivatives credit spread. Other types of risks involved are marking to market risk, margin call risks, etc. Legal Risk: Lack of standard documentation and agreement as to the definitions of credit event leads to legal risks. Usage of master agreements though has simplified and homogenized the trading of credit derivatives. More efforts are being taken recently to counter this risk with International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) taking active role in it. The most important legal issues still revolves around the nature of credit event and the nature of obligations. Growth of Credit Derivatives Within no time credit derivatives have grown to a great extent to be a big part of derivatives segment after interest rate contracts (82% Q4‟08) and foreign exchange contracts (8.4% Q4‟08) as per notional amounts outstanding (Credit derivatives – 7.9% Q4‟08. Much of the significance credit derivatives enjoy today is because of the marketability imparted by securitization. A securitized credit derivative, or synthetic securitization, is a device of embedding a credit derivative feature into a capital market security so as to transfer the credit risk into the capital markets. The synthesis of credit derivatives with securitization methodology has complimented each other. This had allowed keeping the portfolio of assets on the books but transferring the credit risk associated with it. The index products have also contributed to the increasing popularity of credit derivatives. It provides a means to buy or sell exposure to a broad-based indices, or sub-indices diversifying the risks instead to buying or selling exposure to the credit risk of a single entity. The third important factor contributing to the growth of credit derivatives is structured credit trading or tranching. Here the portfolio of assets is divided into various subclasses known as tranches (means slice in French) to fulfill the risk appetite of various investors. The tranches are divided into various levels like senior tranche, mezzanine tranche, subordinate tranche, and equity tranche with the risk of default rising in a sequence for these tranches. Talking about the growth of credit derivatives from year-end 2003 to 2008, credit derivative contracts grew at a 100% compounded annual growth rate. But due to the global turmoil the growth has been curtailed from the end of 2007. The composition of credit derivatives is shown in the figure. As can be seen credit default swaps dominates the composition of credit derivatives followed by total return swaps. The composition of credit default swaps sometimes makes people believe that credit derivatives are nothing but credit default swaps. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 4
  • 6. Credit Derivatives Credit Default Swaps Origin of CDS By the mid-'90s, JPMorgan's books were loaded with billions of dollars in loans to corporations and foreign governments, and by federal law it had to keep huge amounts of capital in reserve in case any of them went bad. But what if JPMorgan could create a device that would protect it if those loans defaulted, and free up that capital? And the solution they come up with is nothing but the origin of “Credit Default Swap”. Credit Default Swap (CDS) is some sort of insurance policy where the third party assumes the risk of debt going sour and in exchange will receive regular payments from the bank who issues debt, similar to insurance premiums. Although the idea was floating for a while JP Morgan was the first bank to make a bet on CDS. They opened up a Swap desk in mid-„90s and formally brought the idea of CDS into reality. Definition A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative contract between two counterparties. The buyer makes periodic payments to the seller, and in return receives a payoff if an underlying financial instrument defaults. There are three parties involved in a typical CDS contract – 1. Protection Buyer (Risk Hedger) 2. Protection Seller 3. Reference Entity Protection buyer is the one who pays a premium (CDS spread, generally a quarterly premium) to the protection seller for taking credit risk to a reference entity and if the credit event happens then protection seller will have to pay off. Typical credit events include – material default, bankruptcy, and debt restructuring. The size of the payment is usually linked to the decline in the reference asset‟s market value following the credit event. The concept of CDS is explained pictorially in Figure 1. The interesting thing about CDS market is you don‟t need to own the underlying reference entity to get into the contract. Such contract is known as naked CDS. Just like any derivatives market CDS can be used for speculation, hedging and arbitrage purpose. Significance of Credit Default Swaps CDS creates Liquidity: The CDS adds depth to the secondary market of underlying credit instruments which may not be liquid for many reasons. Risk Management: Credit derivatives makes risk management more efficient and flexible by allocation of credit risk to most efficient manager of that risk. Risk Separation: Credit derivatives allows for separation of credit risk from other risks of the asset. Reliable funding source: Credit derivatives help exploit a funding advantage or avoiding a funding disadvantage. Since there is no up-front principal outlay required for most Protection Sellers when assuming a Credit Swap position, these provide an Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 5
  • 7. Credit Derivatives opportunity to take on credit exposure in off balance-sheet positions that do not need to be funded. On the other hand, institutions with low funding costs may capitalize on this advantage by funding assets on the balance sheet and purchasing default protection on those assets. The premium for buying default protection on such assets may be less than the net spread such a bank would earn over its funding costs. Figure 1 CDS Premium Premium prices – also known as fees or credit default spreads – are quoted in basis point per annum of the contract‟s notional value. In case of highly distressed credits in which CDS market remains open upfront premium payment is a common thing. The CDS spread is inversely related to the credit worthiness of the underlying reference entity. CDS Size & Price There are no predetermined limits on the size or maturity of CDS contracts, which have ranged in size from a few million to several billions of dollars. In general the contracts are concentrated in the $10 million to $20 million range with maturities of between one and 10 years, although 5 years maturities are the most common. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 6
  • 8. Credit Derivatives Inevitably, the maturity of a CDS will depend on the credit quality of the reference entity, with longer-dated contracts of five years and more only written on the best- rated names. Although there are differences in the quotes given by banks on CDS prices due to some technical reasons rather than financial reasons, but the CDS premium price more or less remains the same. Over and above a valuation of credit risk, probability of default, actual loss incurred, and recovery rate, the various factors in determination of CDS premium are – liquidity, regulatory capital requirements, market sentiments and perceived volatility, etc. Trigger Events The market participants view the following three to be the most important trigger events:  Bankruptcy  Failure to Pay  Restructuring Bankruptcy, the clearest concept of all, is the reference entity‟s insolvency or inability to repay its debt. Failure-to-Pay occurs when the reference entity, after a certain grace period, fails to make payment of principal or interest. Restructuring refers to a change in the terms of debt obligations that are adverse to the creditors. Growth of CDS Market Since the inception of the CDS market its growth has been astounding. The growth of CDS market over the period has been shown in the figure. As the market matured, CDSs came to be used less by banks seeking to hedge against default and more by investors wishing to bet for or against the likelihood that particular companies or portfolios would suffer financial difficulties as well as those seeking to profit from perceived mispricing; the rapid growth of index compared with single name CDS after 2003 reflected this change. The market size for Credit Default Swaps began to grow rapidly from 2003; by the end of 2007, the CDS market had a notional value of $62 trillion (as seen in the above figure). But notional amount began to fall during 2008 as a result of dealer "portfolio compression" efforts, and by the end of 2008 notional amount outstanding had fallen 38 percent to $38.6 trillion. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 7
  • 9. Credit Derivatives It is important to note that since default is a relatively rare occurrence (historically around 0.2% of investment grade companies would default in any one year) in most CDS contracts the only payments are the spread payments from buyer to seller. Thus, although the above figures for outstanding notional amount sound very large, the net cash flows will generally only be a small fraction of this total. Currently CDS dominates the credit derivatives market with its unprecedented growth. Although after the subprime crisis (which will be discussed later) the credit derivatives market, in the 4th quarter of 2008, reported credit derivatives notionals declined 2%, or $252 billion, to $15.9 trillion, reflecting the industry‟s efforts to eliminate many offsetting trades (Reference: OCC‟s Quarterly Report). As shown in the chart above CDS represent the dominant product at 98% of all credit derivatives notionals. As we can see from the other chart although majority of the CDSs composition is dominated by the investment grade CDSs sub-investment grade CDSs also forms a significant part of CDSs (34%) which is considered to be one of prime cause for subprime crisis. Considering the global OTC market, the CDS accounts for about 8%. Types of Credit Default Swaps The CDSs can be classified as Single-name CDSs or Multi-name CDSs.  Single-name CDS: These are credit derivatives where the reference entity is a single name.  Multi-name CDS: CDS contracts where the reference entity is more than one name as in portfolio or basket credit default swaps or credit default swap indices. A basket credit default swap is a CDS where the credit event is the default of some combination of the credits in a specified basket of credits. In the particular case of an nth-to-default basket it is the nth credit in the basket of reference credits whose default triggers payments. Another common form of multi-name CDS is that of the “tranched” credit default swap. Variations operate under specifically tailored loss limits – these may include a Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 8
  • 10. Credit Derivatives “first loss” tranched CDS, a “mezzanine” tranched CDS, and a senior (also known as a “super-senior”) tranched CDS. Settlement methods for CDS The settlement for CDSs can be done in either of two ways: Physical Settlement or Cash Settlement.  Physical Settlement: The seller of the protection will buy back the distressed reference entity at par. Clearly given that the credit event will have reduced the secondary market value of the underlying reference entity, this will result in protection seller (CDS seller) incurring a loss. This was the most common means for the settlement in CDSs and will generally take place no later than 30 days after the credit event. Till 2006 ISDA2 allowed settlement only in the form of physical settlement. But due to increased amount of naked CDSs in the credit market ISDA has now allowed the choice between cash and physical settlement.  Cash Settlement: The seller of the protection will pay the buyer the difference between the notional of the default swap and a final value for the same notional of the reference obligation. Cash settlement is less prevalent because obtaining precise quotes can be difficult when the reference credit is distressed. After the Auction process being started for the settlement of CDSs as per ISDA, this problem has been resolved. The example for the Physical and Cash settlement shown below will explain the process. Uses of Credit Default Swaps As mentioned already CDSs can be used for speculation, hedging or arbitrage. Out of which we will be considering hedging and speculation in detail. CDS for Hedging When JP Morgan invented the credit instrument named CDS they meant it to be for hedging their credit risk. Although market has changed a lot since then but still the use of CDSs for hedging purpose remains to be a primary reason. Credit default swaps are often used to manage the credit risk (i.e. the risk of default) which arises from holding debt. Typically, the Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 9
  • 11. Credit Derivatives holder of, for example, a corporate bond may hedge their exposure by entering into a CDS contract as the buyer of protection. If the bond goes into default, the proceeds from the CDS contract will cancel out the losses on the underlying bond. For example, if you own a bond of Apple worth $10 million maturing after 5 years and you are worried about its future then you can create a CDS contract with an insurance company like AIG which will charge a premium of say 200bps annually for insuring your bond. In this way you are hedging the risk of losing $10 million in case Apple goes bankrupt. Here you will be paying $200000 to AIG for insuring your bond. If Apple goes bankrupt you will receive the par value of bond from AIG and even if does not, you will lose premium value at the most which is worth transferring the risk to AIG. Counterparty Risks When entering into a CDS, both the buyer and seller of credit protection take on counterparty risk. Examples of counter party risks:  The buyer takes the risk that the seller will default. If reference entity and seller default simultaneously ("double default"), the buyer loses its protection against default by the reference entity. If seller defaults but reference entity does not, the buyer might need to replace the defaulted CDS at a higher cost.  The seller takes the risk that the buyer will default on the contract, depriving the seller of the expected revenue stream. More important, a seller normally limits its risk by buying offsetting protection from another party - that is, it hedges its exposure. If the original buyer drops out, the seller squares its position by either unwinding the hedge transaction or by selling a new CDS to a third party. Depending on market conditions, that may be at a lower price than the original CDS and may therefore involve a loss to the seller. As is true with other forms of over-the-counter derivative, CDS might involve liquidity risk. If one or both parties to a CDS contract must post collateral (which is common), there can be margin calls requiring the posting of additional collateral. The required collateral is agreed on by the parties when the CDS is first issued. This margin amount may vary over the life of the CDS contract, if the market price of the CDS contracts changes, or the credit rating of one of the party‟s changes. CDSs for Speculation Credit default swaps allow investors to speculate on changes in CDS spreads of single names or of market indexes such as the North American CDX index3 or the European iTraxx index4. An investor might speculate on an entity's credit quality, since generally CDS spreads will increase as credit-worthiness declines and decline as credit-worthiness increases. The investor might therefore buy CDS protection on a company in order to speculate that the company is about to default. Alternatively, the investor might sell protection if they think that the company's creditworthiness might improve. As there is no need to own an underlying entity to enter into a CDS contract it can be viewed as a betting or gambling tool. For example if you feel that Microsoft is not performing well and may go bankrupt in near future then you might enter into a CDS contract with AIG for a notional value of $10 million for 5 years even if you don‟t own a single share of Microsoft. This kind of CDS is known as Naked CDS. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 10
  • 12. Credit Derivatives Changing Nature of CDS Market towards Speculation CDS was originally meant for hedging but as market matured the market has moved more towards using it for speculation purpose. Speculation entered the CDS market in three forms: 1) using structured investment vehicles such as MBS, ABS, CDO and SIV securities as the underlying asset, 2) creating CDS between parties without any connection to the underlying asset, and 3) development of a secondary market for CDS. Much has been written about the structured investment vehicle market and the lack of understanding of what was included in the various products. Sellers of protection in the CDS market more than likely did not have sufficient understating of the underlying asset to determine an appropriate risk profile (plus there was no history of these products to assist in determining a risk profile). As it has become clear, the structured investment vehicle market was a speculative market which was not really understood which led to speculative CDS related to these products. A larger problem is the pure speculation in the CDS market. Many hedge funds and investment companies started to write CDS contracts without owning the underlying security, but were just a "bet" on whether a "credit event" would occur. These CDS contracts created a way to "short" sell the bond market, or to make money on the decline in the value of bonds. Many hedge funds and other investment companies often place "bets" on the price movement of commodities, interest rates, and many other items, and now had a vehicle to "short" the credit markets. [Actually CDS can be viewed as short in bond and buying a put option. Because in the case of default protection buyer will have to give the underlying reference entity (bond) to the protection seller (in case of physical settlement) so shorting the bond. While protection seller will have to pay the par amount to protection buyer in case of default hence can be viewed to be a put option. The payout to credit protection buyer can be described as – Asset value at the time of swap – Asset market value; Payout to investor = if default 0; if no default So above expression can be viewed as binary put option based on two states of the world: default and no default.] A still larger problem was the development of a secondary market for both legs of the CDS product, particularly the seller of protection. The problem may be that a "weak link" would occur in the chain of sales even if the CDS terms are the same. The "weak link" is often a speculative buyer that offers to sell protection, but, in fact, is just looking to quickly turn the product to another investor. This problem becomes particularly acute when the CDS is based on structured investment vehicles and firms looking for a quick profit. An insurance company may unknowingly be pulled into one of these speculative aspects of the CDS market. The insurance company would be viewed as "the deep pocket" and may be asked (or sued) to recover losses by the buyer of protection. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 11
  • 13. Credit Derivatives CDS is not insurance In many terms CDS is like an insurance policy where there is a regular premium to be paid, there is a reference entity and in case of default a pay-off will be paid. But CDS differs in many aspects from insurance like –  The seller need not be a regulated entity  The seller is not required to maintain any reserves to pay off buyers, although major CDS dealers are subject to bank capital requirements (because CDS dealers are generally banks).  Insurers manage risk primarily by setting loss reserves based on the Law of large numbers, while dealers in CDS manage risk primarily by means of offsetting CDS (hedging) with other dealers and transactions in underlying bond markets.  In the United States CDS contracts are generally subject to mark to market accounting, introducing income statement and balance sheet volatility that would not be present in an insurance contract.  The buyer of a CDS does not need to own the underlying security or other form of credit exposure; in fact the buyer does not even have to suffer a loss from the default event. By contrast, to purchase insurance the insured is generally expected to have an insurable interest such as owning a debt. CDS Pricing The main aim of CDS pricing is to calculate the amount of premium to be paid by protection buyer to the protection seller. For calculating the CDS premium we need to know the Recovery Rate and Probability of Default. Simple explanation of calculating CDS premium (spread) for a 1-year CDS contract (with yearly premium) is shown below. Let S = CDS premium (spread), p = probability of default, R = recovery rate. The protection buyer expects to pay S. And his expected payoff is (1-R) p. When the two parties enter a CDS contract, S is set so that the value of swap transaction is zero. That is, S = (1-R) p Credit Derivatives Market in India Banks are major players in the credit market and are, therefore, exposed to credit risk. Credit market is considered to be an inefficient market with market players like banks and financial institutions mostly have loans and little of bonds in their portfolios while mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds have mostly bonds in their portfolios, with little access to loans, depriving them of high returns of loans portfolios. The market in the past did not provide the necessary credit risk protection to banks and financial institutions. Neither did it provide any mechanism to the mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds to have an access to loan market to diversify their risks and earn better return. Credit derivatives were, therefore, developed to provide a solution to the inefficiencies in the credit market. Internationally, banks are able to protect themselves from the credit risk through the mechanism of credit derivatives. However, credit derivative has not yet been used by banks and financial institutions in India in a formal way. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 12
  • 14. Credit Derivatives Benefits from Credit Derivatives Banks and Financial Institutions currently require a mechanism that would allow them to provide long term financing without taking the credit risk if they so desire. Currently banks and financial institutions need to hold their portfolios on books depriving them of diversifying the portfolio as well as making them forgo some of the opportunities. Also non-banking institutions loses on some of the opportunities of holding high yielding portfolios like loans. Credit derivatives would help resolve these issues. Banks and the financial institutions derive four main benefits from credit derivatives, namely:  Credit derivatives allow banks to transfer credit risk and hence free up capital, which can be used in productive opportunities.  Banks can conduct business on existing client relationships in excess of exposure norms and transfer away the risks.  Banks can construct and manage a credit risk portfolio of their own choice and risk appetite unconstrained by funds, distribution and sales effort. Banks can acquire exposure to, and returns on, an asset or a portfolio of assets by simply writing a credit protection.  Credit risk would be diversified – from banks/FIs alone to other players in the financial markets and lead to financial stability. Apart from above mentioned benefits credit derivatives also provides better liquidity than the existing mechanisms of managing the risks like insurance, guarantee, securitization, etc. It also allows financial intermediaries to gain access to high gain portfolios. Participants in the Indian Market In order to ensure that the credit market functions efficiently, it is important to maximize the number of participants in the market to encompass banks, financial institutions, NBFCs (all regulated by RBI), mutual funds, insurance companies and corporates. Minimum Conditions As per Report of the Working Group on Introduction of Credit Derivatives in India by Department of Banking Operations and Development the bank should fulfill minimum conditions relating to risk management processes and that the credit derivative should be direct, explicit, irrevocable and unconditional. These conditions are explained below.  Direct: The credit protection must represent a direct claim on the protection provider.  Explicit: The credit protection must be linked to specific exposures, so that the extent of the cover is clearly defined and incontrovertible.  Irrevocable: Other than a protection purchaser‟s non-payment of money due in respect of the credit protection contract, there must be no clause in the contract that would allow the protection provider unilaterally to cancel the credit cover.  Unconditional: There should be no clause in the protection contract that could prevent the protection provider from being obliged to pay out in a timely manner in the event that the original obligor fails to make the payment(s) due. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 13
  • 15. Credit Derivatives Draft CDS Guidelines Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has come out with draft guidelines on Credit Default Swap (CDS) per notification dated May 2007. The details of which are as follows: Participants allowed Protection Buyers:  Commercial banks and Primary dealers  A protection buyer shall have an underlying credit risk exposure in the form of permissible underlying asset / obligation Protection Sellers:  Commercial banks and Primary dealers  RBI will consider allowing insurance companies and mutual funds as protection buyer or protection seller as and when their respective regulators permit them to transact in credit default swaps. Product Requirements: Structure: A CDS may be used –  By the eligible protection buyers, for buying protection on specified loans and advances, or investments where the protection buyer has a credit risk exposure.  By the eligible protection sellers, for selling protection on specified loans and advances, or investments on which the protection buyer has a credit risk exposure. Settlement Methods:  Physical Settlement  Cash Settlement  Fixed Amount Settlement (binary CDS) Documentation:  1992 or 2002 ISDA Master Agreement compliance.  2003 ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions and subsequent supplements to definitions compliance.  Documenting the establishment of the legal enforceability of the contracts in all relevant jurisdictions before undertaking CDS transactions. Credit Events:  Bankruptcy  Obligation Acceleration  Obligation Default  Failure to pay  Repudiation/ Moratorium  Restructuring Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 14
  • 16. Credit Derivatives Minimum Requirements:  A CDS contract must represent a direct claim on the protection seller and must be explicitly referenced to specific exposures of the protection buyer, so that the extent of the cover is clearly defined and indisputable. It must be irrevocable.  The CDS contract shall not have any clause that could prevent the protection seller from making the credit event payment in a timely manner after occurrence of the credit event and completion of necessary formalities in terms of the contract.  The protection seller shall have no recourse to the protection buyer for losses.  The credit events specified in the CDS contract shall contain as wide a range of triggers as possible with a view to adequately cover the credit risk in the underlying / reference asset and, at a minimum, cover – o Failure to pay o Bankruptcy, insolvency or inability of the obligor to pay its debts o Restructuring of the underlying obligation involving forgiveness or postponement of principal, interest or fees that results in a credit loss event  CDS contracts must have a clearly specified period for obtaining post-credit- event valuations of the reference asset, typically no more than 30 days  The credit protection must be legally enforceable in all relevant jurisdictions  The underlying asset/ obligation shall have equal seniority with, or greater seniority than, the reference asset/ obligation.  The protection buyer must have the right/ability to transfer the reference/ deliverable asset/ obligation to the protection seller, if required for settlement (in case of physical settlement).  The credit risk transfer should not contravene any terms and conditions relating to the reference / deliverable / underlying asset / obligation and where necessary all consents should have been obtained.  The credit derivative shall not terminate prior to expiration of any grace period required for a default on the underlying obligation to occur as a result of a failure to pay. The grace period in the credit derivative contract must not be longer than the grace period agreed upon under the loan agreement.  The identity of the parties responsible for determining whether a credit event has occurred must be clearly defined. This determination must not be the sole responsibility of the protection seller. The protection buyer must have the right/ability to inform the protection seller of the occurrence of a credit event.  Where there is an asset mismatch between the underlying asset/ obligation and the reference asset/ obligation then: o The reference and underlying assets/ obligations must be issued by the same obligor (i.e. the same legal entity) o The reference asset must rank pari passu or more junior than the underlying asset/ obligation; and o There are legally effective cross-reference clauses between the reference asset and the underlying asset. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 15
  • 17. Credit Derivatives Risk Management:  Banks should consider carefully all related risks and rewards before entering the credit derivatives market. They should not enter into such transaction unless their management has the ability to understand and manage properly the credit and other risks associated with these instruments. They should establish sound risk management policy and procedures integrated into their overall risk management.  Banks which are protection buyers should periodically assess the ability of the protection sellers to make the credit event payment as and when they may fall due. The results of such assessments should be used to review the counterparty limits.  Banks should be aware of the potential legal risk arising from an unenforceable contract, e.g. due to inadequate documentation, lack of authority for a counterparty to enter into the contract, etc.  The credit derivatives activity to be undertaken by bank should be under the adequate oversight of its Board of Directors and senior management (via a copy of a resolution passed by their Board of Directors or via adequate MIS). Procedures: The bank should have adequate procedures for:  Measuring, monitoring, reviewing, reporting and managing the associated risks.  Full analysis of all credit risks to which the banks will be exposed, the minimization and management of such risks.  Ensuring that the credit risk of a reference asset is captured in the bank‟s normal credit approval and monitoring regime.  Management of market risk associated with credit derivatives held by banks in their trading books by measuring portfolio exposures at least daily using robust market accepted methodology.  Management of the potential legal risk arising from unenforceable contracts and uncertain payment procedures.  Determination of an appropriate liquidity reserve to be held against uncertainty in valuation. Now after understanding the need for credit derivatives and the draft guidelines provided by RBI we will now understand the possible settlement procedures to be adopted for CDS contracts. CDS & its settlement in India The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken the first step towards introducing credit default swaps (CDS) to India‟s financial markets by sending out feelers to a number of banks with a view to gauging the acceptability of CDS contracts. The questionnaire sent by RBI to the banks enquires about bankers‟ expectations from the derivative instrument. Although CDSs for the Indian companies like ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, SBI etc. are already traded in US and some Asian market it is yet to be traded in Indian market. And RBI is looking at CDS for debt issued in the domestic market. The move by RBI to launch CDS in India is considered significant considering its cautious nature and the role CDS played in subprime crisis. The move is welcomed by some of the banks. “There is surely a need for such a product (CDS)” said Ashish Vaidya, head of Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 16
  • 18. Credit Derivatives interest rate trading at HDFC Bank. “Indian regulators have the benefit of learning from the difficult experience (in derivatives) in the West and can build in a robust system that effectively curtails the concentration of risks in a few hands”. RBI expects to develop the corporate bond market through the introduction of CDS contracts. CDS Settlement in India:  The CDS market will be an OTC market in India which means the deals between the protection buyer and the protection seller will be bilateral deals making them do the negotiation and pricing for the CDS contracts.  In the infancy stage of CDS market in India one can have a trade reporting platform which will be gathering all the information about the trades happening. This will provide the required transparency and help in gaining the confidence in the product.  Once the market matures one can think of having an electronic order matching platform with central counterparty settlement (like CCIL). Role of CCIL The Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) was set up with the prime objective to improve efficiency in the transaction settlement process, insulate the financial system from shocks emanating from operations related issues, and to undertake other related activities that would help to broaden and deepen the Money, Gilts and Forex markets in India. The role of CCIL is unique as it provides settlement of three different products under one umbrella. It has been instrumental in setting up and running electronic trading platforms like NDS-OM, NDS-Call and NDS-Auction system for the central bank that had helped the Indian market to evolve and grow immensely. It had also immensely bolstered CCIL's image in terms of ability to provide transparent, efficient, robust and cost effective end to end solutions to market participants in various markets. The introduction of ClearCorp14 Repo Order Matching System (CROMS), an anonymous Repo trading platform, has also changed the trading pattern in Repo market i.e. shifting of interest from specific security to basket of securities. The success of its money market product 'CBLO' has helped the market participants as well as RBI to find a solution to unusual dependence on uncollateralized call market. The total settlement volume during 2009-10 in government securities, forex market and CBLO stood at Rs.14934 billion, Rs.25424 billion, and Rs.20433 billion respectively. The CCIL already has the necessary infrastructure for the settlement of OTC products like interest rate swaps and forward rate agreement. CCIL already has a trade reporting platform for IRS which provides non-guaranteed settlement for the reported trades. Now CCIL is moving towards the guaranteed settlement of IRS which will involve trade matching, initial and MTM margining, exposure check, novation, multilateral netting, default handling etc. On this backdrop one can say CCIL is well equipped with all its experience to act as central counterparty for the settlement of CDS contracts. But before the introduction of CDS contracts in India, there are some issues that need to be handled for the effective CDS market. Those are –  Although RBI has allowed insurance companies and mutual funds as protection buyer or protection seller, the permission of respective regulators needs to be addressed quickly before making CDS market open. Otherwise it may obstruct the stipulated expeditious growth of the CDS in India and will also defeat the Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 17
  • 19. Credit Derivatives purpose of CDS, i.e., to maximize the number of participants in the market and transmit the credit risk from the banking system to other risk seeking financial entities.  As per the draft guidelines provided by RBI restructuring is considered as a credit event which has created many legal disputes in the global CDS market. Considering the complexities associated with the restructuring, restructuring as a credit event has been removed from North American CDS contracts. So more clear information on restructuring as credit event is required.  As CDS contract in India is only allowed if the protection buyer bears the loss making it similar to insurance. Considering this close proximity of CDS contract with that of insurance contract, CDS contract should be made to be out of the purview of regulations of insurance contract making it incontrovertible. Although CDS has helped in perforation of subprime crisis which has created negative vibes about CDS but CDS as in instrument is very effective means of hedging your risk. And in India it is expected to provide the needed push to the corporate bond market. So it won‟t be long for the CDS market to pick up in India. First Credit Default Swap in India The first credit-default-swap trades offering protection on Indian corporate bonds were completed on Dec 7, 2011, according to separate statements from India's IDBI Bank and ICICI Bank. IDBI said it underwrote one CDS transaction and ICICI said it was responsible for another. The combined trade sizes totalled $1.9 million, according to the Clearing Corporation of India, Ltd., and comprised a pair of trades each worth 50 million rupees. The protection was sold on bonds issued by India's Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd., a lender to the power sector, and Indian Railway Finance Corp. Ltd. The buyers of protection paid 90 basis points. One basis point translates to $1,000 a year on a derivatives contract used to protect $10 million of debt against default for five years. Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 18
  • 20. Credit Derivatives References -Investopedia.com -Introduction to Credit Derivative Article by Vinod Kothari -hereisthecity.com -Futures and Options by J.C. Hull -RBI warms up to credit default swaps”, The Economic Times, dated 30 June 2009 -OCC‟s Quarterly Report -ISDA -Call Reports -CCIL Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad 19