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Capacity Planning
Make the best of your assets you have &
Making them work for you effectively
Mattias Fridström
CTO, TeliaSonera International Carrier
Delivery speed 299,792,458 m/s
TeliaSonera
Lastupdated:April2013
Our footprint
• 460 million population
• 183 million subscriptions
- 71.2 m consolidated
- 111.8 m in associated companies
3
Putting data centers
at the core of the
global network
• Control and management of optical and IP
• Two distinct core networks at duct level
• Diversity at duct, cable and node level
TeliaSonera International Carrier
01 July 2013
Exploding
bandwidth
5
Five trends shaping our world
Anywhereization
A flattening world
Connecting the dots
Socialization of everything
The age of diversity
The age of
diversity
Access to network
capabilities will come in
many shapes and forms,
with diverse business
models coexisting for the
foreseeable future.
Anywhereization
Wherever you are, you
want instant access to
everything, no matter
where it is. As a global
carrier we are keeping
it all together.
Connecting the dots
We believe that every
industry will eventually rely
on connectivity to create
value. The ones that best
leverage the network will
outpace their competitors.
A flattening world
Today we see global access
to knowledge that previously
was limited to a chosen few
– all made possible through
connectivity.
Socialization of
everything
Online socialization is
changing the very basis for
how people behave and
interact. On an individual
level, and in society at large.
… with industry consequences
01 July 2013
Bandwidth demand is continuing to grow…
1996 2000 2003 2006 2010 2012 2015
Bandwidth
Mbit/s
Time
• Base Internet
usage
• Peer-to-peer
music sharing
• IPTV
• Video
streaming
• Video on
demand
• HD TV
• 3D
multiplayer
gaming
• Multiple
streaming
HD/3D TV
• Mass market
cloud
services
• Full scale
3D emulating
• HD voice
• Full 3D
(real time &
voice & 3D
holograms)
• More
services that
we can not
even
imagine
today
3G
2G
4G
VDSL2
ISDN
DSL
ADSL
ADSL2+,
VDSL
0.128
1-2
6-16
25-50
50-100
100-250
>250
Source: McKinsey
• HD
• Remote
hosting
• 3D TV
and
interactive
solutions
6 01 July 2013
…it comes to us
from new sources…
7 01 July 2013
New devices bring new traffic…
50 billion M2M connected devices are forecasted by 2020
8 01 July 2013
No link between
economic slowdowns
and growth of
bandwidth demand
(2006-2012)
01 July 2013
Dow Jones Index
TeliaSonera International Carrier bandwidth
…and irrespective of economic slowdowns
9
•Changes in the
optical networking
landscape
Applications
Infrastructure (ducts, fibers, technical sites)
Data Centers
Backbone (”lit” equipment)
Access network (fixed / mobile)
Server farms
Application /
content providers
Operators /
service providers
Regional /
Global carriers
Users
Applications
(and web
browsers) fetch
data from
remote servers
Each layer has value
Online
applications
are dependent
on each layer
working with
high
bandwidth
and Quality
of Service
01 July 201311
Appetite for capacity drives fiber optical
development
Infinera
DTN-X
2x500
Gb/s
Tx PICs
‘Live’ 30 x 10Gb/s waves to 2x500 Gb/s super channels
World’s First Terabit Trial
Nov 2011
Total SP Bandwidth Usage
Tb/s
Source: Based onTelegeography data, 2011
Source: TeliaSonera International Carrier & Infinera, 2011
Source: TeliaSonera International Carrier & Infinera, 2012
01 July 201312
Data Rate 2.5G 10G 40/100G 500G 1Tb/s
Enabling
Technology
Wavelengths Super-Channels
Late 90s c2008 2012 2014
While others use ring or mesh diversity…
• Traffic flows before and after link fault:
2013-03-07 Internal13
• Consequences in a fault scenario:
– Significantly increased latency.
– Some links carry more than twice the normal traffic.
– Hot-potato routing to other providers means traffic flows can be hard to
predict for all parties.
…We in TSIC use red/blue diversity
• Exactly half of the capacity lost in case of a fault:
2013-03-07 Internal14
• Easy to understand consequences of a link fault.
• Customers and peering partners get predictable traffic.
The “strange” Management Challenge
01 July 201315
During the ‘crazy days’ an enormous
amount of fiber was installed
192 fibers per cable. The majority
remain dark today.
Despite this, Carriers are
investigating additional fiber routes
to support overlay designs.
Its about designing in reliability and
performance
Mapping between IP and transmission topology
• IP and DWDM network topologies need to be in sync in order to
build an efficient network.
2013-03-07 Internal16
But you don’t want to build an
IP/MPLS topology like this ...
... on top of a transmission
network topology like this:
New fiber routes
01 July 201317
To increase the mesh and allow for a
true red and blue structure more
fibers are needed
The FLAP ring is just the start of this
Lifespan gets shorter on TSIC
European DWDM systems.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
First
generation
System capacity: 16*2,5G
Regeneration length: ~700 km
Full system:
40G
Second generation
Full system:
800G
System capacity: 80*10G/(40G/100G)
Regeneration length: ~1500 km
(~700 km)
Third generationFull system:
~2000G
Fourth generation
System capacity: 80*10G
Regeneration length: ~700 km
Full system:
9600G
System capacity: 96*100G
Regeneration length: ~1500 km
•Changes in the
IP Ecosystem
• Listed Company Example
– Personnel are in Norway
– Customers are in Sweden
– Internet servers are in Finland
Personnel
Customers
Server towards
Internet
01 July 201320
Borders are disappearing……but
Connectivity is
business critical.
Storage is a big
question mark
Public IP – who connects data centers?
IPv4 (99.5%) IPv6 (<0.5%)
• Some big names fall away
• TeliaSonera International Carrier rises
• Level3 ‘x2’ is mega-sized
• Making ”the change” - not just network
but DNS, routing, tools, reporting.
• Users - still too few, and mainly large
networks.
Source: Internet Intelligence Authority Renesys for screenshots and blog commentary. Retrieved May, 2013
IPv6 is the answer.
We all need to
”walk the walk”
01 July 201321
While Major players are building out dedicated
data-centers and networks, carriers remain vital
ISP 1
ISP 2
ISP 3 ISP 4
ISP 6
ISP 5
”Internal backbone approach” ”CDN approach”
X
X
X X X X X
X
XX
TRENDS
“Best effort” to everyone
is not good enough
anymore
Some Carriers have
already built massive
networks. Why not let
them build some more
Those with fiber have all
the capabilities needed
Ownership of logotypes are respected and just used for illustrative purpose
01 July 201322
Outsourcing to optical operators
– a new Business Model
For carriers… …and content providers
Photos: Wikicommons . Rostelecom Cup, Russia (left) and Facebook’s “like” symbol in Luleå, northern Sweden
01 July 201323
New big Datacenters have challenging
requirements
• ”Cold” places
• Green energy ONLY
• Politically stable countries
• No seismographic activities
• High power knowledge and experience
This is not where the
worlds fibers are
01 July 201324
Optical Transport Partner Requirements
• Enable differentiation in a competitive market
• Exceptional focus on customer experience
• Technology leadership
• Outstanding reliability
• Quick deliveries
01 July 201325
The Cloud
01 July 201326
Online gaming – lessons for today’s cloud
• Blizzard – ‘World of Warcraft’
– Since 2004
• Activision – ‘Call of Duty’
– Since 2004
– 1 million users online
• Gaming
– Highly interactive
– High capacity storage
– On demand
– Global Access
01 July 201327
• After cloud “latency” is today’s buzz word
• Latency has always been a factor
– but not driven by the same needs
– This leads to new ways of building networks
Buzz words
01 July 201328
29
Putting data centers
at the core of the
global network
• Luleå – San Francisco 200ms
• Hong Kong – London 130ms
• Boden - Istanbul 30ms
and new routes give better latency…..
01 July 2013
Demand for capacity remains strong
- from corporate to consumer driven
Opportunities for those that move fast
- differentiating services in time adds value
Datacentres should be located correct
- power & cooling cost vital
Summary
1
2
3
Infrastructure more important than ever
- combination of fiber and IP
Choose you allies carefully
- customers and network spanning the globe
4
5
01 July 201330
Carrier of the future

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Capacity planning

  • 1. Capacity Planning Make the best of your assets you have & Making them work for you effectively Mattias Fridström CTO, TeliaSonera International Carrier Delivery speed 299,792,458 m/s
  • 2. TeliaSonera Lastupdated:April2013 Our footprint • 460 million population • 183 million subscriptions - 71.2 m consolidated - 111.8 m in associated companies
  • 3. 3 Putting data centers at the core of the global network • Control and management of optical and IP • Two distinct core networks at duct level • Diversity at duct, cable and node level TeliaSonera International Carrier 01 July 2013
  • 5. 5 Five trends shaping our world Anywhereization A flattening world Connecting the dots Socialization of everything The age of diversity The age of diversity Access to network capabilities will come in many shapes and forms, with diverse business models coexisting for the foreseeable future. Anywhereization Wherever you are, you want instant access to everything, no matter where it is. As a global carrier we are keeping it all together. Connecting the dots We believe that every industry will eventually rely on connectivity to create value. The ones that best leverage the network will outpace their competitors. A flattening world Today we see global access to knowledge that previously was limited to a chosen few – all made possible through connectivity. Socialization of everything Online socialization is changing the very basis for how people behave and interact. On an individual level, and in society at large. … with industry consequences 01 July 2013
  • 6. Bandwidth demand is continuing to grow… 1996 2000 2003 2006 2010 2012 2015 Bandwidth Mbit/s Time • Base Internet usage • Peer-to-peer music sharing • IPTV • Video streaming • Video on demand • HD TV • 3D multiplayer gaming • Multiple streaming HD/3D TV • Mass market cloud services • Full scale 3D emulating • HD voice • Full 3D (real time & voice & 3D holograms) • More services that we can not even imagine today 3G 2G 4G VDSL2 ISDN DSL ADSL ADSL2+, VDSL 0.128 1-2 6-16 25-50 50-100 100-250 >250 Source: McKinsey • HD • Remote hosting • 3D TV and interactive solutions 6 01 July 2013
  • 7. …it comes to us from new sources… 7 01 July 2013
  • 8. New devices bring new traffic… 50 billion M2M connected devices are forecasted by 2020 8 01 July 2013
  • 9. No link between economic slowdowns and growth of bandwidth demand (2006-2012) 01 July 2013 Dow Jones Index TeliaSonera International Carrier bandwidth …and irrespective of economic slowdowns 9
  • 10. •Changes in the optical networking landscape
  • 11. Applications Infrastructure (ducts, fibers, technical sites) Data Centers Backbone (”lit” equipment) Access network (fixed / mobile) Server farms Application / content providers Operators / service providers Regional / Global carriers Users Applications (and web browsers) fetch data from remote servers Each layer has value Online applications are dependent on each layer working with high bandwidth and Quality of Service 01 July 201311
  • 12. Appetite for capacity drives fiber optical development Infinera DTN-X 2x500 Gb/s Tx PICs ‘Live’ 30 x 10Gb/s waves to 2x500 Gb/s super channels World’s First Terabit Trial Nov 2011 Total SP Bandwidth Usage Tb/s Source: Based onTelegeography data, 2011 Source: TeliaSonera International Carrier & Infinera, 2011 Source: TeliaSonera International Carrier & Infinera, 2012 01 July 201312 Data Rate 2.5G 10G 40/100G 500G 1Tb/s Enabling Technology Wavelengths Super-Channels Late 90s c2008 2012 2014
  • 13. While others use ring or mesh diversity… • Traffic flows before and after link fault: 2013-03-07 Internal13 • Consequences in a fault scenario: – Significantly increased latency. – Some links carry more than twice the normal traffic. – Hot-potato routing to other providers means traffic flows can be hard to predict for all parties.
  • 14. …We in TSIC use red/blue diversity • Exactly half of the capacity lost in case of a fault: 2013-03-07 Internal14 • Easy to understand consequences of a link fault. • Customers and peering partners get predictable traffic.
  • 15. The “strange” Management Challenge 01 July 201315 During the ‘crazy days’ an enormous amount of fiber was installed 192 fibers per cable. The majority remain dark today. Despite this, Carriers are investigating additional fiber routes to support overlay designs. Its about designing in reliability and performance
  • 16. Mapping between IP and transmission topology • IP and DWDM network topologies need to be in sync in order to build an efficient network. 2013-03-07 Internal16 But you don’t want to build an IP/MPLS topology like this ... ... on top of a transmission network topology like this:
  • 17. New fiber routes 01 July 201317 To increase the mesh and allow for a true red and blue structure more fibers are needed The FLAP ring is just the start of this
  • 18. Lifespan gets shorter on TSIC European DWDM systems. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 First generation System capacity: 16*2,5G Regeneration length: ~700 km Full system: 40G Second generation Full system: 800G System capacity: 80*10G/(40G/100G) Regeneration length: ~1500 km (~700 km) Third generationFull system: ~2000G Fourth generation System capacity: 80*10G Regeneration length: ~700 km Full system: 9600G System capacity: 96*100G Regeneration length: ~1500 km
  • 19. •Changes in the IP Ecosystem
  • 20. • Listed Company Example – Personnel are in Norway – Customers are in Sweden – Internet servers are in Finland Personnel Customers Server towards Internet 01 July 201320 Borders are disappearing……but Connectivity is business critical. Storage is a big question mark
  • 21. Public IP – who connects data centers? IPv4 (99.5%) IPv6 (<0.5%) • Some big names fall away • TeliaSonera International Carrier rises • Level3 ‘x2’ is mega-sized • Making ”the change” - not just network but DNS, routing, tools, reporting. • Users - still too few, and mainly large networks. Source: Internet Intelligence Authority Renesys for screenshots and blog commentary. Retrieved May, 2013 IPv6 is the answer. We all need to ”walk the walk” 01 July 201321
  • 22. While Major players are building out dedicated data-centers and networks, carriers remain vital ISP 1 ISP 2 ISP 3 ISP 4 ISP 6 ISP 5 ”Internal backbone approach” ”CDN approach” X X X X X X X X XX TRENDS “Best effort” to everyone is not good enough anymore Some Carriers have already built massive networks. Why not let them build some more Those with fiber have all the capabilities needed Ownership of logotypes are respected and just used for illustrative purpose 01 July 201322
  • 23. Outsourcing to optical operators – a new Business Model For carriers… …and content providers Photos: Wikicommons . Rostelecom Cup, Russia (left) and Facebook’s “like” symbol in Luleå, northern Sweden 01 July 201323
  • 24. New big Datacenters have challenging requirements • ”Cold” places • Green energy ONLY • Politically stable countries • No seismographic activities • High power knowledge and experience This is not where the worlds fibers are 01 July 201324
  • 25. Optical Transport Partner Requirements • Enable differentiation in a competitive market • Exceptional focus on customer experience • Technology leadership • Outstanding reliability • Quick deliveries 01 July 201325
  • 27. Online gaming – lessons for today’s cloud • Blizzard – ‘World of Warcraft’ – Since 2004 • Activision – ‘Call of Duty’ – Since 2004 – 1 million users online • Gaming – Highly interactive – High capacity storage – On demand – Global Access 01 July 201327
  • 28. • After cloud “latency” is today’s buzz word • Latency has always been a factor – but not driven by the same needs – This leads to new ways of building networks Buzz words 01 July 201328
  • 29. 29 Putting data centers at the core of the global network • Luleå – San Francisco 200ms • Hong Kong – London 130ms • Boden - Istanbul 30ms and new routes give better latency….. 01 July 2013
  • 30. Demand for capacity remains strong - from corporate to consumer driven Opportunities for those that move fast - differentiating services in time adds value Datacentres should be located correct - power & cooling cost vital Summary 1 2 3 Infrastructure more important than ever - combination of fiber and IP Choose you allies carefully - customers and network spanning the globe 4 5 01 July 201330
  • 31. Carrier of the future