Presentation prepared by Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow, all with the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. This is part of the Global Crisis Country Series.

1. Version: 28 June 2022
Cambodia
Impacts of the Ukraine and Global
Crisis on Food Systems and Poverty
Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, and James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC
These country studies are conducted by IFPRI with financial support from
BMGF, FCDO, and USAID. All studies use data and models developed with
ongoing support from BMGF, USAID and the CGIAR’s “Foresight and Metrics”
initiative.
Xinshen Diao (x.diao@cgiar.org) |Paul Dorosh (p.dorosh@cgiar.org) | James Thurlow (j.thurlow@cgiar.org)

2. Version: 28 June 2022
Overview
• Series of country case studies
• Economywide modeling
• Capture world market shocks
• Estimate impacts on economy, agri-food
system, poverty, food security, etc.
• Simulate policy responses
• Three phases of analysis:
1. Initial data collection and impact assessment
2. Data revisions and analysis of broad policy options
• Cash transfers, food aid, and fertilizer subsidies
• Fiscal implications for national governments
3. In-country engagement and tailored policy analysis
Impact
assessment
Policy
analysis
Country coverage
Countries with IFPRI RIAPA models
May June
July

3. Version: 28 June 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are imports in local market?
Can local producers substitute for imports?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations World Price Shocks
Source: World Bank Pink Sheets
Global data
11%
-13%
100%
56%
34%
88%
101%
Maize Rice Wheat Palm oil Crude oil Natural gas Fertilizer
Change in real world prices (June 2021 to April 2022)
30 Jun 2021 - 31 Jan 2022 31 Jan 2022 - 30 Apr 2022
30 Jun 2021 - 30 Apr 2022

4. Version: 28 June 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are imports in local market?
Can local producers substitute for imports?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations Supply and Demand
Supply
(% by source)
Demand
(% by use)
Cambodia data
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
95%
81%
19%
98%
Maize Rice Edible oils Oil products
Imports
Domestic
16%
64%
100%
84%
70%
32%
17%
4%
Maize Rice Edible oils Oil products
Exports
Final use
Input use
+ Others = 100%
+ + +
0.3% 5.5% 0.7% 2.7%
Products’ share of the
value of total demand
throughout the economy

5. Version: 28 June 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are imports in local market?
Can local producers substitute for imports?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations Consumption Baskets
Cambodia data
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
15.5% 16.2% 14.8%
25.8%
13.9%
32.4% 33.6%
31.7%
38.1%
32.0%
52.2% 51.8%
55.5%
38.4%
55.6%
All households Rural Urban Poor Nonpoor
Composition of household consumption spending
Cereals & edible oils Other foods Non-food goods & services

6. Version: 28 June 2022
Shocks | Fertilizer Response (crop productivity effect)
Adoption
Application
Price
Demand
Response
What share of cultivated land uses fertilizers?
How much fertilizer is being used?
(i.e., fertilizer application rate)
How big is the domestic fertilizer price increase?
How do farmers react to rising fertilizer prices?
(i.e., price elasticity of fertilizer demand)
How do yields change with reduced fertilizer use?
(i.e., fertilizer response ratio)
Impact Channel Considerations Fertilizer Adoption Rate
Source: 2014 Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey
Timing When is the fertilizer needed?
74%
83%
94%
59%
66%
65%
67%
58%
85%
79%
99%
100%
46%
56%
56%
52%
56%
Maize
Rice
Pulses
Groundnuts
Oilseeds
Cassava
Irish potatoes
Sweet potatoes
Leafy vegetables
Other vegetables
Sugarcane
Tobacco
Fruits
tea
Coffee
Rubber
Other crops
Share of cultivated land using fertilizer
Cambodia data

7. Version: 28 June 2022
Shocks | Fertilizer Response (crop productivity effect)
Adoption
Application
Price
Demand
Response
What share of cultivated land uses fertilizers?
How much fertilizer is being used?
(i.e., fertilizer application rate)
How big is the domestic fertilizer price increase?
How do farmers react to rising fertilizer prices?
(i.e., price elasticity of fertilizer demand)
How do yields change with reduced fertilizer use?
(i.e., fertilizer response ratio)
Impact Channel Considerations
Crop Calendar
Source: USDA/FAS/IPAD
Timing When is the fertilizer needed?
Planting for Cambodia’s main 2022 season is already
underway

8. Version: 28 June 2022
Results | GDP and Employment
• National GDP and employment decline
• Negative terms-of-trade shock
(i.e., negative effect of higher import prices outweighs positive
effect of higher export prices)
• Rising import costs reduces spending on
domestically produced goods
• Falling production leads to job losses
• Impacts occur throughout the economy
• Agri-food system GDP and employment also fall
• Larger GDP declines in both primary agriculture
and off-farm agri-food sectors (equal to 38% and
21% of overall GDP losses in the country
respectively)
• Larger employment declines in agriculture
• More job losses in absolute number outside of the
agri-food system (70% of total job losses in the
country)
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
Contribution to total change
GDP
Jobs
-1.1%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.2%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-1.6%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
Agri-food
system
Change in GDP and employment due to
food, fuel and fertilizer shocks (%)
GDP Employment
38%
21%
41%
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
24%
5%
71%

9. Version: 28 June 2022
Results | Drivers of GDP Losses
• Fuel and fertilizer shocks drive most of the decline in
national GDP
• Agri-food GDP losses also mostly driven by fertilizer
and fuel shocks
• Fertilizer directly affects primary agricultural production
• Disrupts downstream processing via supply chains
• Higher fuel prices raise the cost of transport and other
agri-food related services
• GDP losses outside the agri-food system driven by
higher fuel prices
• Higher transaction costs
• Lower consumer demand
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
Contribution
to change
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.3%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-0.5%
-1.1%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-2.2%
-0.7%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
Agri-food
system
Percentage change in real GDP due to food, fuel
and fertilizer shocks (%)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
7%
68%
24%
Notes: One-third of the effect on agriculture GDP under “fertilizer prices and response” is directly from rising fertilizer, while
the remaining two-thirds are from the productivity shock caused by lowering the use of fertilizer.

10. Version: 28 June 2022
Results | Household Consumption
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
• Household consumption falls significantly
• Larger than GDP losses as households are hit twice by rising
prices and falling incomes
• Larger impact from fuel shocks on consumption losses than
for GDP losses
• Importance of shocks differs across population groups:
• Fuel shocks important for all households and more so for
urban and nonpoor households
• Earn more income outside the agri-food system
• More import-intensive consumer basket
• Consume products with larger transaction cost margins
• Fertilizer shocks more important for rural and poor
households
• Rely more on farm incomes
• Consume more domestically-produced foods
• Food prices affect all households similarly
Contribution
to change
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-3.3%
-3.2%
-3.4%
-2.7%
-3.4%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-4.3%
-4.4%
-4.2%
-3.9%
-4.4%
National
Rural
Urban
Poor
Nonpoor
Percentage change in real consumption
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
9%
76%
15%

11. Version: 28 June 2022
Results | Changes in Inequality
• Differential effects on poor/nonpoor households are
driving changes in inequality:
• Fuel shocks cause larger consumption losses for
households in the top quintile
• Fertilizer shocks affect lowest quintile slightly more than
top quintile
• Food prices have similar impact across the income
distribution
• Overall, inequality rises
• Larger consumption losses for poorer households in
Quintile 1-2, which leads to increase in inequality
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
-5.0%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Percentage change in quintile consumption
Food prices
Fuel prices
Fertilizer prices & response
Combined food, fuel and fertilizer shocks

12. Version: 28 June 2022
Share of population
falling into poverty
Results | Poverty
• Poverty rises significantly
• Headcount rate up 2.4% points
• 385 thousand more people pushed into poverty
• Larger increase in poverty in rural areas
• 90% of expanded poor population
• Larger increase in rural poverty headcount rate
• Rural population much larger than urban population
• Mainly driven by fuel shock
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
Contribution
to change
0.2%
0.3%
1.9%
0.9%
2.1%
0.3%
0.4%
2.4%
1.0%
2.8%
National
Urban
Rural
Change in poverty headcount rate (%-point)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
32
32
304
37
267
49
48
385
38
347
National
Urban
Rural
Change in poor population (1000s)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
8%
79%
13%
10%
90%
Urban
Rural
Notes: About 18% of the country’s population have adult equivalent consumption levels that fall below the US$1.90 poverty
line. The poverty rate is higher in rural, about 21%, than in urban, about 6%.

13. Version: 28 June 2022
• Food, fuel and fertilizer shocks together increase the
cost of a healthy reference diet
• Reference diet is the EAT-Lancet’s “healthy” diet
thresholds for the six major food groups
• Rising prices for edible oils (in added fats) increase the
cost of the recommended healthy diet for added fats,
dairy and fruits, while falling incomes reduce demand
for vegetables and proteins (meats & fish), and thus
lower their costs slightly
Results | Diet Quality
Source: IFPRI Cambodia RIAPA Model
• Rising food prices and falling incomes cause diet quality
to worsen for many households
• Prior to the crisis, few households had consumption levels
and diversity needed for a healthy diet
• Rising world prices cause near one million people to
become deprived in at least one additional food group for
a health diet
• Rural population accounts for more of the deterioration in
diet quality
1.4%
0.3%
0.5%
-0.1%
0.9%
Net change in
cost of healthy
diet
Contributions of
food groups to
change
Change in the real cost of a healthy
reference diet caused by rising world
prices (%)
Added fats
Proteins
Dairy
Fruits
Vegetables
Staples
10.6%
13.2%
13.3%
21.7%
35.1%
6.0%
Shares of six food groups in
total cost of a healthy diet
prior to the crisis
Added fats
Proteins
Dairy
Fruits
Vegetables
Staples
166
134
291
103
189
535
113
421
991
247
744
National
Urban
Rural
Number of people to become deprived in at least one
additional food group for a healthy diet (1000s)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response

14. Version: 28 June 2022
Headlines
• Food, fuel and fertilizer shocks lead to large reductions in
GDP and employment in Cambodia
• Agri-food system adversely affected, alongside the broader
economy
• Agriculture is particularly at risk to fertilizer shocks, esp. if it
leads to lower fertilizer use in the current season
• Poor and rural households are especially vulnerable
• Larger income losses
• Greater increase in poverty (esp. number of poor people)
• Larger contribution to the deterioration in diet quality
• Next steps
• Evaluate policy options available to governments and
development partners to mitigate impacts on food systems,
poverty, and food insecurity (e.g., cash transfers, food aid,
fertilizer subsidies, fiscal support, etc.)
Impact
assessment
Policy
analysis
Country coverage
May June
July