Brexit forecast: What does it mean for you, our industry and UK business?
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Economist and journalist Hamish McRae provides the post-Brexit forecast for the media & marketing industry speaking at MMS Mobile in July 2016.
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Brexit forecast: What does it mean for you, our industry and UK business?
- 1. Brexit – what does it mean for our industry and for UK business? Hamish McRae • Five great medium-term global shifts and … • … their implications for the world of finance • Three big questions about the future
- 2. People get consumers wrong … There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. Steve Balmer, 2007
- 3. … and the economy wrong I am 100 per cent sure the US will go into hyperinflation. Marc Faber, 2009
- 4. The presentation's structure • Europe’s place in the world economy … • … its long-term trends and performance … • … and its short-term outlook • How far this changed by Brexit? • What does this mean for our industry?
- 10. Some implications so far • Europe is a huge market – but slow-growing • There is general shift to the emerging world • Thanks to demography, that shift will continue • So is Europe becoming the new Japan?
- 11. Now the short-term outlook • The entire developed world has suffered … • … but much of the emerging world escaped • But the recovery is fragile and uneven • There would have been a downturn anyway • How bad might it be for Europe in general? • And how bad for us?
- 17. Thoughts about the cycle • There is such a thing as the business cycle! • This one was already mature … • … and it is artificially supported • But there is spare capacity and little inflation • Some dip between 2017 and 2019 was inevitable
- 18. How does Brexit change this? • It hits growth: say 1% off UK, 0.5% off Eurozone • Some sectors – London property – take a beating • But beyond 2017 everything is to play for • What is the nature of the deal and the process? • How quickly are other EU stresses tackled? • Will the UK remain outward-looking?
- 19. And the hit to our industry? • Technology trumps politics ... • … this is nothing like the great financial crisis • Communications technologies are global • Britons are technologically sophisticated … • … and if they have money they shop • But first, let’s go to Rome …
- 20. Inauguration of Pope Benedict XVI 2005
- 21. Inauguration of Pope Francis 2013
- 24. What does this this mean for us? • We need to counter the discourtesy … • … and the segmentation of discourse • Paradoxically, communications drive us apart • So how do we talk across divides? • How do we restore trust in experts? • Will culture and identity trump physical proximity?
- 25. What does this mean for Europe? • Brexit need not be a long-term disaster … • … though of course in the short-term it is • But a multi-speed Europe is both inevitable … • … and preferable (soft membership for Russia?) • How do politicians adapt a 60-year-old-model?
- 26. Europe’s future – one view … The euro is our common fate, and Europe is our common future Angela Merkel
- 27. Europe’s future – another one … The UK is not going to leave the European Union. Of course not. We are inextricably wound up with Europe. Nick Clegg
- 28. Europe’s future – and a third! It's a European Union of economic failure, of mass unemployment and of low growth. Nigel Farage
- 29. Brexit – what does it mean for our industry and for UK business? Hamish McRae • Five great medium-term global shifts and … • … their implications for the world of finance • Three big questions about the future