1. The comparative evidence shows that agriculture-led growth strategies have rarely succeeded on their own and usually require strong urban demand or high agricultural prices to drive productivity gains. In Ethiopia, these conditions are currently lacking. 2. For agriculture to drive growth in Ethiopia, it would need sustained high prices to incentivize productivity increases. However, the country's isolation makes prices volatile and difficult to stabilize. Agricultural growth alone also cannot generate sufficient urban income growth to continuously drive demand. 3. Agricultural productivity gains in Ethiopia face constraints including inadequate seed systems, underdeveloped input markets, low returns from fertilizer use without improved seeds, and limitations of the input credit system. Faster urban-led growth is now needed