Session I As Denmark has not had an foot and mouth disease (FMD)-outbreak since 1983, the objective of this study was to use epidemiological modelling to compare the effects of a set of different mitigation measures on e.g. predicted number of infected and culled herds, and epidemic control duration1. The epidemiological impact of basic mitigation measures was compared to additional mitigation strategies on top of the basic measures. Additionally, the geographical influence and the impact of specific cattle production systems as index herds were analysed in terms of the predictive variables.

1. EuFMD
OS22
Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth
disease spread and mitigation
measures in the Danish
livestock population
B. Conrady, S. Mortensen, S.S. Nielsen, H. Houe, F.F. Calvo-Artavia,
J. Ellis-Iversen, A. Boklund
Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen
Danish Veterinary and Food Administration

2. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 2
FMD susceptible herds in Denmark
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark
Capital (Copenhagen)
 14.90 Mio. livestock in 28,748 farms
- 62% farms: Central and South DK
 Trade value: €21.6 Mio per day
- 48% EU27 (≈ 15% livestock)
- 61% assigned to the Pig Industry
 Epidemic initiate
- Scenario A: 1,000 index herds per species (each region)
- Scenario B: 1,000 index herds for one specific
production type (per species) in entire DK

3. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 3
Spread and Control (EuFMDiS)
 19 herd types
 Spread: (in)-direct, local(3km)*, market, air (43 weather stations)
- SPF* ≈ 40% of the pig herds + biosecurity weighting for all other herds
 14 control strategies on top of the basic measures initiated by
e.g., pending culling, number of infected herds
 Control strategies influenced by
- Epidemic size
- Resources (e.g. human resources)
- Efficiency of tracing system
- False reports of cases
 Post-outbreak management**
Herd Contact probability
* SPF=specific pathogen-free pig herds are regularly checked for freedom from several pathogens and follow a certain set of rules regarding
transport and biosecurity including investments in farm facilities. Thus, lower risk of becoming infected through the local spread and indirect contacts
** To demonstrate the absence of virus: clinical inspection and serological testing in the previous infected/vaccinated areas
13% farms: > 1 species
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark
Scenario A: All production types
Scenario B:

4. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 4
Total Economic losses
 Direct Costs
- Operational activities (e.g., surveillance, culling and disposal, cleaning and disinfection, vaccination)
- Compensation
- Control centre
- Post-outbreak surveillance costs (e.g., follow-up costs for positive herds: testing, culling, disposal, and compensation)
- Production losses due to empty stables caused by culling or suppressive vaccination (contribution margin model) *
 Indirect Costs (daily trade value * trade recovery period)
- Approach 1: 3-months after culling last infected/vaccinated animal (suppressive) or 6-months (protective) (“WOAH”) **
- Approach 2: 4 months plus 3.8 months for each epidemic control duration of 30 days based on analysed trade
data from “historical” FMD outbreaks from different countries (Seitzinger et al., 2022) ***
* Contribution margin: difference between the total revenue and total variable costs. Costs were calculated from culling or vaccination day until the end of the outbreak/post-outbreak
** Based on EU council directive 2003/85/EC (EU countries) and Terrestrial Animal Health Code (Non-EU countries). Losses due to a restriction on livestock product exports to EU countries were assumed to apply for
the same period but only to farms in zones (PZ and SZ); *** For protective vaccination, the days after all post-outbreak surveillance activities were completed were added to the calculation
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark

5. #OS22
Conclusion
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark

6. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 6
 No-significant epidemiological
benefit in terms of reduced number of
infected farms by additional mitigation
measures on top of the basic measure
- Control Duration (Basic): 30-45 (1-148)
- Post-Outbreak (Basic): 58-86 (1-277)
Initiation
of
epidemics
in
1,000
cattle
herds
in
each
of
the
four
regions
* Median (5th and 95th percentile) for basic mitigation measures
Box limits are the 25th and 75th percentiles. The whiskers are the minimum and
maximum values
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark
 A significantly higher number of
infected farms (cattle: up to 11; pig: up
to 30), if infections were initiated in
specific production systems*
compared to simulations covering all
production systems located in specific
regions
- Control Duration (Basic): 30-79 (46-180)
- Post-Outbreak (Basic): 58-180 (101-322)
* Epidemic initate in production systems (entire DK):
- large commercial dairy herds
- large-scale commercial weaner pig herds, no SPF
- small commercial ruminant herds

7. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 7
From North to Zealand: Epidemic was initated
in 1,000 index herds across all production systems
Entire DK: The epidemic was initiated in 1,000 index herds of one specific
production system per species (e.g. shown here for Cattle: large dairy herds)
Cattle
Historical
Trade
Data
(Approach
2)
Median=
€
2.7
billion
(Basic)
Median=
€
1.7
billion
(Basic)
WOAH
(Approach
1)
1/3 total economic losses difference between
(Approach 1) and (Approach 2)
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark

8. #OS22
Main Conclusion for the Veterinary
Contingency Planning in Denmark
 Basic mitigation measures are sufficient to control FMD on average
 The chosen index herd significantly influenced the course of an epidemic
 Thus, if FMD will occur in specific production systems
the currently estimated resources for surveillance and culling
would be “insufficient” to control FMD
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark

9. Thank you !..
https://ivh.ku.dk/english
bcon@sund.ku.dk
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark

10. #OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22 10
How often depopulation (or suppressive ring vaccination) of all susceptible herds within a 1km (or 3km) radius around
each infected herd was triggered after confirmation of 15 (25) infected herds?
Central
Entire Zealand South North Entire Zealand South North
Central
Source: Programmed by Conrady
%
of
all
runs
Depopulation Vaccination
Beate Conrady
Simulating FMD in Denmark