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AssignmentInvestment Management, Fin 3720Final
examAgreement: By submitting the complete final exam to Bb I
agree that I have not given any help to another student nor has
another person given help to me.Fall 20141. Only open
Blackboard and Excel on your computer.2. Please save your file
frequently on the computer's desktop.3. Please use the cells to
the right of the data to make calculations, or you can add rows
in the ss to make calculations.4. Write your comments in the
folder "Written comments".5. When done rename the file to
your ID number (no names) and post in Bb and email to
[email protected]AssignmentWelcome to Alpha Value Investors,
LLC. We are pleased you have joined our investment firm, and
hope that you appreciate our approach to investing. Almost all
of our clients have well-diversified, efficient portfolios. Most
have a "reasonably conservative" risk profile, but are also
interested in having a non-core part of their portfolios invested
in individual securities.Unfortunately, Mike has been called to a
meeting, but he would like your help on a recommendation to
the investment committee. As a retail industry analyst, he is
considering recommending one of two stocks to our clients next
week. The firms are the Gap, Inc. (GPS) and Coach, Inc.
(COH).In this file are analyst reports and data on the firms.
Please analyze these two companies and make a
recommendation of one firm to our clients to be purchased as a
long-term investment. The non-core, security portion of their
portfolios are balanced across sectors but additional weight in
the consumer cyclical sector would improve the allocation. The
investment committee meeting is in two hours and Mike will
meet you out side the meeting room so please complete your
analysis in this file and be prepared to share your findings with
the committee and Mike.
Written commentsWritten comments:Note: Your are welcome to
format this areas as you like to present the most compelling
case for investing in one of the firms.
FrameworkBAGrowth70%80%Perf. Ratios70%60%Mkt.
Metrics90%70%Cash flow70%65%Value Creation70%95%
B Growth Perf. Ratios Mkt. Metrics Cash flow Value
Creation 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 A Growth Perf. Ratios
Mkt. Metrics Cash flow Value Creation 0.8 0.6 0.7
0.65 0.95
FormulasFormulasSustainable growth rate gs = ROE * bInternal
growth rate gi = ROE * b * (E/A)Free Cash Flow Ebit * (1-t) +
depreciation - change in NWC - CapExDividend Discount
Model (constant-growth)P0 = (D1 / (ke - gss))Value with non-
constant growth modelsP0 = (Div1 / (1+ r)1) + (Div2 / (1+ r)2)
+ (Div3 / (1+ r)3) +(TV3 / (1+ r)3)Where TV3 = (Div4 / (r -
gss))And, where Divn cnd be substituted for FCFnAnd, where
ke is also called rAnd, where Terminal Value (TV) also called
Horizontal ValueDividend Discount Model (no-growth)P0 =
Div1 / keHolding period returnReturn = (D1 + (P1 - P0)) /
P0CAPMke = rf + β (rm - rf), last element often referred to as
"market premium"WACCWACC = ke (E / (E + D)) + kd (1 - t)
(D / (E + D)), at market weightsReturn on Invested Capital
(ROIC)(EBIT * (1-t)) / (Total assets - excess cash (if any) -
non-interesting bearing current liabilities)Note: There are many
ways to calculate ROIC, this is just one simple one.
Analyst Note COHCoach is investing in its brand for the long
term, although patience is needed in the short term.by Paul
Swinand Authors can be reached at Analyst Feedback
Morningstar's Editorial PoliciesAnalyst NoteCoach's Fiscal 1Q
Sales and Earnings Show Brand Relaunch On Track; Shares
Still Below Fair Value by Paul Swinand,
10/28/2014MorningstarInvestment Thesis 10/13/2014 Coach has
developed a narrow economic moat through a brand that enables
pricing, sourcing and distribution advantages, and capital
efficiency. Despite the company's recent struggles, it is still
creating economic profits, and at a level greater than most
retailers.Attention to capital efficiency and consumers' strong
brand loyalty have been key drivers of Coach's economic
returns. We judge brand to be more important in bags and
leather accessories than other softgoods categories as consumers
tend to be more brand-loyal. Despite Coach's long-run plans to
increase penetration in footwear and ready-to-wear, we believe
accessories will remain the core of the business. The men's
business also offers some upside; it currently constitutes around
14% of sales. Coach's international business is still
underdeveloped and represents an opportunity if growth there
can continue for the long run. Although fiscal 2013 and 2014
struggles highlight Coach's market concentration in North
America, using long-run success in Japan as a guide, we think
there is plenty of room for Coach to take market share in other
geographies. In Japan, Coach has had flat to low-single-digit
growth for the past 10 years while competitors generally have
experienced declines. The company entered Europe in 2012
through department store partnerships and is now penetrating
further wholesale accounts and opening retail stores. We believe
there is room for a brand such as Coach offering uniquely
American styles and high-quality products at lower price points.
In China, Coach lags other luxury brands with respect to sales,
but has greater growth potential. The company increased its
China business to more than $100 million in 2010 and
approximately $550 million in fiscal 2014. Coach should also
see higher operating margins in China as it expands because of
lower operating costs and higher gross margins. In Europe,
where Coach has just a small number of boutiques and is
developing dedicated shops in department stores, the company
should leverage selling, general, and administrative expenses
over time and now projects $100 million in revenue in fiscal
2015.Economic Moat 10/13/2014 While Coach might not have
complete pricing power because of the price/value equation
inherent at some level in consumers' decision to purchase its
midtier luxury offerings, the company's ability to design,
distribute, and source has historically enabled it to produce high
operating margins. Coach's gross margins (currently in the high
60s despite recent headwinds), and gross margin return on
investment (taking inventory value and turns into account) are
among the best in our coverage list, lending evidence that the
firm has some pricing power in the range where it competes.
Despite the short-term adverse fashion cycle, we believe the
Coach brand to be valuable and believe the company will again
be able to return to high operating margins, which should drive
returns on capital back into the high 20s and even 30s. Thus, in
our opinion, Coach's brand and premium pricing warrant a
narrow economic moat. Brand history and the extensive,
directly operated, and wholesale distribution network also
contribute to the defensibility of the position, in our thinking,
and although currently in a reinvestment phase, the revamping
and refurbishment of the network only serve to reinforce the
brand image and solidify the economic moat. Our viewpoint is
supported by returns on capital that have averaged over 40%
before fiscal 2013. Operating margins have averaged above 30%
in the past, and despite short-term declines in fiscal 2014 and
2015, they can eventually reach the high 20s again, in our
view.Valuation 10/28/2014 Our fair value estimate remains $45
per share, as we have incorporated fiscal first-quarter results
and management's reiteration of full-year guidance for low-
double-digit revenue declines and high teens operating margins.
Our fair value estimate implies 18 times forward fiscal June
2015 year-ending earnings per share. On an enterprise
value/EBITDA basis, our valuation implies 9 times fiscal June
2015 estimates, and on a cash flow yield basis, our fair value
estimate suggests approximately 3.7% cash flow yield for fiscal
2015, at the low end of a five-year historical range of 4%-6%.
Fiscal 2015 metrics include $55 million in one-time charges for
store closings and restructuring. Our estimate for earnings per
share in fiscal 2015 has not changed from $1.69 GAAP, and our
adjusted earnings per share estimate is up by one penny to
$1.82. For fiscal 2015 (year ended June), we project a revenue
decline of 13.1% (unchanged), with mid-20s negative same-
store sales growth implied in North America. Gross margins are
now forecast to be below 68%, less than company guidance for
around 70%. Although cost pressure worries have diminished,
increased SG&A around the design changes should cause
operating margins to dip below 18%, in line with the company's
expectations of high-teens operating margin but more negative
than our prior assumptions. We model roughly 100 basis points
of additional gross margin decline, year over year, in fiscal
2015, as we remain concerned that some inventory clearing may
still have to occur in the outlets and that fresh product from the
new designer may face some reluctant consumer acceptance. In
fiscal 2015, we model capital spending of $450 million. Over
our 10-year explicit forecast period, we model operating
margins first averaging 23.7% for the first five years going from
under 18% in fiscal 2015 to over 27% in year five, and
remaining between 26% and 27% after that. This is somewhat
more conservative than the company's plans to return to 30%
operating margins by fiscal 2019. Top-line growth to reach our
cash flow-based valuation averages just over 4%, or just over
6% excluding the previously mentioned 13% decline forecast
for fiscal 2015. Although we have increased our capital
spending assumptions for fiscal 2015 through 2017, we model
spending eventually returning to 4%-5% of sales.Risk
10/13/2014 Remaining fashionable and extending the brand are
constant risks at Coach, and as such we assign the firm a high
uncertainty rating. If Coach extends the brand beyond what
consumers understand it to be, the company could damage its
core image or create confusion in consumers' minds. Coach has
embarked on an ambitious plan to expand its product lines and
become a full lifestyle brand, not unlike many older and more
prestigious European luxury brands, but the strategy is not
without risk. It is also now undertaking a pullback on
promotions and a repositioning of the store base, in the same
year it will launch new product lines from recently hired chief
design officer Stuart Vevers. New designers hold promise, but
there is always the risk that new lines and looks are not
accepted by the public. In addition, there is fashion and
execution risk at the product levels. Footwear does leverage
some competitive advantages in leather sourcing but, in our
opinion, is a different category from bags and accessories.
Men's accessories have lower risk, in our opinion, and we agree
that the men's leather goods market is underserved, but we
cannot be sure that the extension will not dilute the women's
business. The new fashion designs have met with very positive
reviews in the fashion press, yet no amount of testing and
publicity can assure success with consumers.While Coach has
established a niche in the fashion world, and customers are very
brand-loyal in the handbag and accessories category, it runs the
risk that changes in tastes and preferences will eventually lead
consumers to believe it is a brand for a past era. Coach also has
been successful thus far extending the brand into new
geographies, and a portion of our fair value estimate is based on
that continued expansion. Today, sales growth prospects appear
strong, but there is a risk that new entrants or other market
forces could derail the international projects that today look
promising for Coach.Management 10/13/2014 Lew Frankfort
was replaced by Victor Luis at the beginning of 2014. Luis, who
was head of international operations, has been assembling a new
team of designers and management, including a new creative
director, Stuart Vevers. His experience includes terms as CEO
of Baccarat, running North America, and with other LVMH
brands earlier in his career. We believe his international
experience will be important to develop the future growth of the
firm. A majority of Coach's board is independent, and officers
and directors own nearly 5% of the shares outstanding.
Frankfort is currently chairman but will retire after the
November annual meeting. Jide Zeitlin, currently the lead
outside director, will be appointed the next chairman of the
board. Thus the chairman and CEO roles will remain split, a
structure we view favorably. We believe management does a
good job of providing transparency around the business.
Overall, corporate governance is sound and aligned with
shareholders, in our opinion, and we rate Coach's stewardship of
shareholder capital as exemplary given its long record of above-
average returns and recent actions to return cash to
shareholders. We note that in 2013, Frankfort bought Coach
shares on the open market, despite having announced his
diminishing role.Overview Profile: Coach is a manufacturer,
distributor, and retailer of handbags and accessories and is
expanding to broader product categories. Its products offer the
quality of higher luxury brands but at more attractive price
points. While 60% of sales come from more than 500 North
American retail stores, Coach also sells its products through
department stores, international shops, the Internet, its catalog,
and Coach stores in Japan and China. Coach recently
established a foothold in Europe, where it plans to reach $100
million in sales in fiscal 2015.S&P 500 index data: S&P 500
Copyright @ 2014
COH ISCOACH INC (COH) INCOME STATEMENTFiscal year
ends in June. USD in millions except per share data.2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-
06Revenue3,6084,1594,7635,0754,806YOY growth
rate15%15%7%-
5%Avg.8%CAGR7%gs40%45%43%32%17%GDP - current
$GDP raalGDP const.Cost of
revenue9741,1351,2971,3771,509Gross
profit2,6343,0243,4663,6983,297Operating expensesSales,
General and administrative1,4841,7191,9542,1742,177YOY
growth rate16%14%11%0%Avg.10%CAGR10%Operating
income1,1501,3051,5121,5251,12013%16%1%-
27%Avg.1%CAGR-1%Other income (expense)2-4 -6 -4
2Income before income
taxes1,1521,3011,5061,5211,122Provision for income
taxes41742046748634136%32%31%32%30%Avg.32%Net
income from continuing operations7358811,0391,034781Net
income7358811,0391,03478120%18%-0%-
24%Avg.3%CAGR2%Net income available to common
shareholders7358811,0391,034781Earnings per
shareBasic2.362.993.603.662.81YOY growth rate27%20%2%-
23%Avg.6%CAGR4%Diluted2.332.923.533.612.79Weighted
average shares
outstandingBasic311295288282278Diluted316302294286280EB
ITDA1,2771,4301,6451,6881,309YOY growth rate12%15%3%-
22%Avg.2%CAGR1%ROIC40%43%42%37%25%NOPAT77888
310231031757Invested capital1,9382,0432,4082,8102,990Free
cash flow9057917627981,237
COH BSCOACH INC (COH) BALANCE SHEETFiscal year
ends in June. USD in millions except per share data.2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-06AssetsCurrent
assetsCashCash and cash equivalents5967009171,063592Short-
term investments100272277Total
cash6967029171,13586971%62%71%82%58%Receivables10914
3174175199Inventories363422504525526Deferred income
taxes779495111113Prepaid expenses303845Other current
assets269211387104Total current
assets1,3031,4521,8052,0711,855Non-current assetsProperty,
plant and equipmentLand155169169169169Fixtures and
equipment364427525598579Other
properties515570638700734Property and equipment, at
cost1,0341,1661,3321,4671,482CapEx-132 -166 -135 -15
Accumulated Depreciation-485 -584 -687 -772 -768 Property,
plant and equipment, net548582644695714Equity and other
investments6197485Goodwill306331376345361Intangible
assets1010101010Deferred income taxes1561049585112Other
long-term assets138156174129127Total non-current
assets1,1641,1831,3001,4611,808Total
assets2,4672,6353,1043,5323,663Liabilities and stockholders'
equityLiabilitiesCurrent liabilitiesShort-term
debt11220140Accounts payable106119155179154Accrued
liabilities423408455448426Other current
liabilities65869593Total current
liabilities529593718723813NWC7748591,0871,3481,042-85 -
228 -261 306Non-current liabilitiesLong-term
debt242310Deferred taxes liabilities60Deferred
revenues163139Other long-term
liabilities409244253400370Total non-current
liabilities433430393400429Total
liabilities9621,0231,1111,1231,242Stockholders'
equityCommon stock3333Additional paid-in
capital1,5032,0002,3272,5202,646Retained earnings-30 -446 -
387 -102 -219 Accumulated other comprehensive
income325550-12 -9 Total stockholders'
equity1,5051,6131,9932,4092,421Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity2,4672,6353,1043,5323,663
COA CFCOACH INC (COH) Statement of CASH FLOWFiscal
year ends in June. USD in millions except per share data.2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-06Cash Flows From Operating
ActivitiesNet income7358811,0391,034781Depreciation &
amortization127125133163189Deferred income taxes-17 4028-7
-23 Stock based compensation819610812095Accounts
receivable4-32 -27 -14 -24 Inventory-34 -65 -72 -39 -64
Accounts payable1103630-30 Accrued
liabilities6854849914Other working capital64-29 -40 27-58
Other non-cash items-39 -46 -67 0105Net cash provided by
operating activities9911,0331,2221,414985Cash Flows From
Investing ActivitiesInvestments in property, plant, and
equipment-81 -148 -184 -241 -220 Acquisitions, net-1 -53 -147
-4 Purchases of investments-230 -234 -171 -631
Sales/Maturities of investments1303222146Other investing
charges-24 -11 Net cash used for investing activities-182 -60 -
259 -570 -708 Cash Flows From Financing ActivitiesShort-term
borrowing-7 Long-term debt issued450Long-term debt
repayment-1 -1 -1 -22 -310 Excess tax benefit from stock based
compensation2858682712Warrant issued185Repurchases of
treasury stock-1,150 -1,098 -700 -400 -525 Cash dividends
paid-94 -178 -260 -340 -376 Other financing activities205344-
34 462Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities-
1,020 -875 -742 -689 -748 Effect of exchange rate changes75-3
-9 -1 Net change in cash-204 103217146-471 Cash at beginning
of period8005967009171,063Cash at end of
period5967009171,063592Free Cash FlowOperating cash
flow9911,0331,2221,414985Capital expenditure-81 -148 -184 -
241 -220 Free cash flow9108861,0371,173766Supplemental
schedule of cash flow dataCash paid for income
taxes364364439445Cash paid for interest1121
COA RatiosKey Ratios -> ProfitabilityMargins % of Sales2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-
06Revenue100100100100100COGS27.027.327.227.131.4Gross
Margin73.072.772.872.968.6SG&A41.141.341.042.845.3R&DOt
herOperating Margin31.931.431.730.023.3Net Int Inc &
Other0.1-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1EBT
Margin31.931.331.630.023.4Profitability2010-062011-062012-
062013-062014-06Tax Rate %36.232.331.032.030.4Net Margin
%20.421.221.820.416.3Asset Turnover
(Average)1.41.61.71.51.3Return on Assets
%29.234.536.231.221.7Financial Leverage
(Average)1.61.61.61.51.5Return on Equity
%45.956.557.647.032.4Return on Invested Capital
%45.155.656.946.731.4Interest CoverageKey Ratios ->
Growth2010-062011-062012-062013-062014-06Revenue %Year
over Year11.715.314.56.6-5.3 3-Year
Average11.49.413.812.14.95-Year
Average16.114.512.89.88.310-Year
Average20.721.020.818.213.8Operating Income %Year over
Year18.313.515.90.8-26.5 3-Year Average5.04.415.99.9-5.0 5-
Year Average13.111.38.85.92.910-Year
Average35.329.127.520.19.7Net Income %Year over
Year17.919.918.0-0.4 -24.5 3-Year Average3.54.018.612.1-3.9
5-Year Average13.612.39.45.74.610-Year
Average34.330.028.321.611.6EPS %Year over
Year22.025.320.92.3-22.7 3-Year Average9.810.422.715.7-1.5
5-Year Average18.418.114.910.77.910-Year
Average36.331.431.124.815.2Key Ratios -> Cash Flow2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-06Cash Flow RatiosOperating
Cash Flow Growth % YOY428Free Cash Flow Growth % YOY-
266 Cap Ex as a % of Sales2.33.63.94.84.6Free Cash Flow/Sales
%25.221.321.823.115.9Free Cash Flow/Net
Income1.21.01.01.11.0Key Ratios -> Financial Health2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-06Balance Sheet Items (in
%)Cash & Short-Term Investments2827303224Accounts
Receivable45655Inventory1516161514Other Current
Assets57777Total Current Assets5355585951Net
PP&E2222212019Intangibles1313121010Other Long-Term
Assets121091220Total Assets100100100100100Accounts
Payable45554Short-Term Debt00104Taxes PayableAccrued
Liabilities1716151312Other Short-Term Liabilities2333Total
Current Liabilities2123232022Long-Term Debt1100Other Long-
Term Liabilities1715131112Total Liabilities3939363234Total
Stockholders' Equity6161646866Total Liabilities &
Equity100100100100100Liquidity/Financial Health2010-
062011-062012-062013-062014-06Current
Ratio2.52.52.52.92.3Quick Ratio1.51.41.51.81.3Financial
Leverage1.61.61.61.51.5Debt/Equity0.00.0Key Ratios ->
Efficiency Ratios2010-062011-062012-062013-062014-
06EfficiencyDays Sales Outstanding11.011.112.212.614.2Days
Inventory129.2126.2130.3136.4127.1Payables
Period39.136.138.644.340.2Cash Conversion
Cycle101.1101.3103.9104.7101.0Receivables
Turnover33.133.030.029.025.7Inventory
Turnover2.82.92.82.72.9Fixed Assets
Turnover6.37.47.87.66.8Asset Turnover1.41.61.71.51.3
COA Key StatsFrom Yahoo! FinanceKey StatisticsData
provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.Trading
InformationValuation MeasuresStock Price HistoryMarket Cap
(intraday)5:9.74BBeta:0.75Enterprise Value (Nov 19,
2014)3:8.99B52-Week Change3:-34.0%Trailing P/E (ttm,
intraday):14.4S&P500 52-Week Change3:15.2%Forward P/E
(fye Jun 28, 2016)1:17.252-Week High (Nov 29,
2013)3:57.95PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1:3.452-Week Low (Nov
5, 2014)3:32.72Price/Sales (ttm):2.150-Day Moving
Average3:34.69Price/Book (mrq):4.0200-Day Moving
Average3:36.62Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:1.9Share
StatisticsEnterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6:6.9Avg Vol (3
month)3:4,109,440Financial HighlightsAvg Vol (10
day)3:3,709,440Fiscal YearShares Outstanding5:275.59MFiscal
Year Ends:6/28/14Float:273.22MMost Recent Quarter
(mrq):9/27/14% Held by Insiders1:0.91%Profitability% Held by
Institutions1:89.30%Profit Margin (ttm):14.5%Shares Short (as
of Oct 31, 2014)3:26.04MOperating Margin (ttm):23.7%Short
Ratio (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:5.4Management EffectivenessShort
% of Float (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:9.5%Return on Assets
(ttm):19.5%Shares Short (prior month)3:27.73MReturn on
Equity (ttm):28.3%Dividends & SplitsIncome StatementForward
Annual Dividend Rate4:1.35Revenue (ttm):4.69BForward
Annual Dividend Yield4:3.8%Revenue Per Share
(ttm):17Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3:1.35Qtrly Revenue
Growth (yoy):-9.70%Trailing Annual Dividend
Yield3:3.8%Gross Profit (ttm):3.30B5 Year Average Dividend
Yield4:2.3%EBITDA (ttm)6:1.30BPayout Ratio4:55.0%Net
Income Avl to Common (ttm):682.54MDividend
Date3:12/29/14Diluted EPS (ttm):2.45Ex-Dividend
Date4:12/3/14Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):-45.30%Last Split
Factor (new per old)2:2:01Balance SheetLast Split
Date3:4/5/05Total Cash (mrq):907.50MTotal Cash Per Share
(mrq):3.29Total Debt (mrq):170.00MTotal Debt/Equity
(mrq):6.97Current Ratio (mrq):2.37Book Value Per Share
(mrq):8.85Cash Flow StatementOperating Cash Flow
(ttm):960.21MLevered Free Cash Flow (ttm):705.62MSee Key
Statistics Help for definitions of terms used.Abbreviation
Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billionsmrq = Most
Recent Quarter (as of Sep 27, 2014) ttm = Trailing Twelve
Months (as of Sep 27, 2014) yoy = Year Over Year (as of Sep
27, 2014) lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Jun 28, 2014) fye =
Fiscal Year Ending1 Data provided by Thomson Reuters2 Data
provided by EDGAR Online3 Data derived from multiple
sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance4 Data provided by
Morningstar, Inc.5 Shares outstanding is taken from the most
recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is
calculated using shares outstanding.6 EBITDA is calculated by
Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by
a company in its reportingCurrency in
USD.http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/capiq/SIG=10r7m9m4m/*ht
tp:/www.capitaliq.com/http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/finance
/tools/fitakeystats.html
Analyst Note GPSGap has a positive moat trend, but we expect
near-term weakness in the core Gap brand.Morningstar,
IncBridget WeishaarAnalyst Note 11/06/2014 In tonight's
October monthly sales report, Gap reported third-quarter sales
and updated earnings guidance. As expected, Gap's third-quarter
comp growth came in on the weak side, suffering under the
pressure of product missteps at the core Gap brand. That being
said, guidance for third-quarter earnings per share in the range
of $0.78-$0.79 was better than we'd expected, with management
stating strength in both gross margin rate and operating
expenses. We await additional commentary on earnings
performance but tentatively think that this could be a reflection
of improving inventory management and supply chain
investments--the basis for our positive moat trend rating.
Although we expect it to take some time to get the Gap product
back on track, we remain comfortable in the intrinsic strength of
the brand portfolio and our narrow moat rating. We expect no
change to our $48 fair value estimate as we expect the
unexpected strength in margin to offset most of the weakness in
the top line. We look forward to additional color when the
company presents its third-quarter results on Nov. 20.Total
third-quarter comparable sales declined 2% year over year with
Gap Global down 5%, Banana Republic Global flat, and Old
Navy Global up 1%. For the third quarter, Gap's net sales were
$3.97 billion, down from $3.98 billion in the third quarter of
fiscal 2013. Management now expects diluted earnings per share
of $0.78 to $0.79 for the quarter (including a $0.06 benefit from
a lower effective tax rate versus third quarter 2013), up from
$0.72 in third quarter fiscal 2013 and better than expectations at
the September sales update. As a reminder, in the September
sales release, management had expected gross margins for the
third quarter to be moderately down from the prior year and that
operating expenses would be approximately 8% above the third
quarter of 2013.Investment Thesis 08/25/2014 Gap is one of the
most iconic of American brands, selling basics at affordable
prices. The company scored a second hit with Old Navy, which
has a slightly more family and value oriented bent. Together the
two brands compose almost 80% of the company’s revenue.
Although competition has flooded the space, namely through
fast fashion retailers H&M, Zara, and Uniqlo, the company has
delivered about 14% average annual adjusted return on invested
capital over the last three years--evidence of brand strength and
a narrow economic moat, in our opinion. The challenge the
company now faces is to minimize fashion misses and inventory
mismatches through a responsive supply chain, to become more
technologically sophisticated for younger consumers, and to
maintain a differentiated and relevant brand identity in the face
of growing fast fashion competition.On many fronts Gap is
succeeding. The company has been right-sizing its store base
while growing its online presence, shedding about 14% of the
North America specialty fleet since 2008 and growing e-
commerce to 14% of sales in 2013 (roughly doubling in five
years). In fact, rebalancing the portfolio toward online, outlet
stores (550 by the end of 2014), and franchise stores (450 stores
by end of 2014) has contributed about 12 points of contribution
shifts toward higher returning channels since 2008 (now 31% of
business). We think further margin expansion is on the horizon
and that this is an underappreciated opportunity. We believe
that investments in seamless inventory, omni-channel, and
responsive supply chain development could narrow the spread
between Gap's 12% average operating margin (last three years)
and the high teens margins at fast-fashion competitors Inditex
and H&M. Successful execution of these projects should put
Gap’s planning calendar and manufacturing and distribution
processes more in line with global competition and enable a
pull-based ordering system which better aligns supply and
demand and increases full-price sell-through. We think returns
can begin to be seen in 2015 and that full seamless inventory
and 50% penetration of the responsive model assortment can be
achieved by the end of 2016.Economic Moat 08/25/2014 We are
maintaining Gap’s narrow moat rating primarily to reflect the
strength of the Gap and Old Navy brand intangible assets as
well as for the secondary reason of the cost efficiencies from
economies of scale that we expect will continue to allow the
company to achieve adjusted ROIC’s in the midteens for at least
the next 10 years, well north of its 10% cost of capital.The Gap
and Old Navy brands account for almost 80% of the company’s
revenue and have shown strength across multiple geographies
and distribution channels. In its 2014 publication, The Most
Valuable U.S. Retail Brands, Interbrand ranked Gap number 24
and Old Navy number 26 on its list. On the Global Brand
Survey completed in 2013, Interbrand ranked Gap number 100.
We think this demonstrates the continuing cultural relevance of
the brand, almost 45 years after its founding. Although fast
fashion retailers including H&M, Zara, and Uniqlo have moved
into the space, The Gap and Old Navy have remained
synonymous with all-American casual basics at an affordable
price. This has kept customers coming to its stores and willing
to pay a price high enough to roughly maintain a gross margin
of 39.0% in 2013 (a 40 basis point decline) versus 33.7% at
American Eagle (a 630-basis-point decline) and 17.1% at
Aeropostale (a 760 basis point decline). Scale also has provided
the company with cost advantages, allowing Gap and Old Navy
to be relatively price competitive with fast fashion retailers,
while also preserving profitability. The company boasts more
than 3,000 total stores, with over 1,300 Gaps and over 1,000
Old Navys. According to company reports, Gap Inc. generated
$16 billion in revenue in 2013 versus a $2 billion mean at its
U.S. competitors (Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American
Eagle, Ann Taylor, Children's Place, Express, and Urban
Outfitters). Operating margin averaged 12% over the last three
years versus 18% at narrow-moat H&M and 19% at narrow-moat
Inditex. Although below its large fast-fashion retailers, we note
that this is still well above domestic competitors including
Abercrombie & Fitch at 7%, American Eagle at 10%, and
Aeropostale at (0.4)%. According to company documents, the
average operating margin in 2013 of all U.S. peers
(Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle, Ann
Taylor, Children's Place, Express, and Urban Outfitters) was
only 5% versus Gap’s 13%. Over the last five years, earnings
per share has grown at a 15% compound annual growth rate
versus the U.S. peers mean of a 38%
decline.Valuation 08/25/2014 We are slightly lowering our fair
value estimate to $48 from $50 as we see weakness in the core
Gap brand pressuring near-term performance and the transition
to a new CEO to increasing short-term volatility. That said, we
continue to like the long-term story and we see operating
margin expansion as the main driver of valuation as Gap has
invested heavily in technology and supply chain systems which
we believe can narrow the margin disparity between Gap and its
global fast-fashion competitors. In our updated model, we think
Gap can reach an operating margin of 15.4% in five years (down
from 15.9% in our prior model) from 13.3% currently. This is
still well below the high-teens margins of fast-fashion
competitors. This reflects our belief that the company is
successfully executing on its responsive supply chain,
omnichannel, and seamless inventory initiatives as evidenced by
its work on fabric platforming, reserve in store, and order in
store. In 2014, we are continuing to model 3% revenue growth
but now expect the operating margin to decline to 12.7% from
13.3% in 2013 versus our prior expectation for a 10-basis-point
year-over-year increase in operating margin to 13.4%. We think
poor merchandising (product was too spring-forward) and heavy
inventory levels weighed on first-half results. In our opinion,
products at the core Gap brand remain uninspiring and the new
ad campaign from Wieden+Kennedy appears to be failing to
resonate with consumers. We expect discounting to weigh on
2014 margins. However, we are encouraged that Banana
Republic is showing some signs of a turnaround with improved
marketing and more contemporary merchandising. Ultimately
we see full year top-line growth driven by flat comparable sales
and a 3% increase in stores. Over the next five years, we
continue to expect 4% average annual revenue growth driven by
2% comparable sales growth on average and 3% new store
growth weighted toward factory stores, Asia expansion, and
franchises. We think operating margins will expand from 13.3%
in 2013 to 15.4% in 2018 (7% average annual operating income
growth) on improved responsiveness and supply chain
management. This estimate is slightly lower than our prior
expectation for operating margin to reach 15.9% in 2018 as we
see deleverage due to the core Gap brand offsetting some of the
upside of investments in the near term. We note that this is still
below average high teen margins at H&M and
Inditex.Risk 10/09/2014 We are giving Gap a medium
uncertainty rating. We believe that exposure to economic risks
including unemployment, wage growth, consumer confidence,
and debt is compounded by fashion risk, a competitive and
overcrowded apparel retail space with no barriers to entry,
international expansion, and difficulty in implementing change
in a large organization. From fiscal 2011 through 2013, monthly
comparable sales have ranged from an increase of 10% to a
decrease of 3%. Over the past five years, operating margins
have ranged from 13.4% in fiscal 2010 to 9.9% in fiscal
2011.Additionally, we believe the company could be facing
some margin headwinds. With Asia being a high-growth
geography and approximately 28% of purchases by dollar value
from factories in China, Gap is exposed to rising wage costs in
Asia. This could mean increased pressure on margins. Omni-
channel investments may also have a less than expected impact
on driving top-line growth and gross margin
expansion.Offsetting these risks is Gap's established brand
portfolio. We think the portfolio strategy at various price points
hedges some of the risk of fashion misses or unique customer
weakness at any one brand. Additionally, strong brands may
inspire more customer loyalty and be slightly more sticky than
brands with less history.Management 10/09/2014 We are giving
Gap a Standard stewardship rating. Glenn Murphy is expected to
depart from his CEO position in February 2015 and to be
replaced by internal employee Art Peck. Although we're sorry to
see Murphy go, we think Peck is a sound choice for CEO. Peck
has the experience and skill set necessary to continue to execute
Gap’s strategic goals as seamlessly as possible. Peck joined the
company in 2005 after more than 20 years at Boston Consulting
Group, and has worked in various brand, strategic, and
operational roles within the company. He is currently serving as
president of Gap’s growth, innovation, and digital operations,
which we think positions him perfectly to continue Gap’s global
expansion, digital strategy, and margin improvement initiatives.
Having worked closely with Murphy, Peck should be able to
guide Gap further along the existing strategic path. We expect
no outsized swings in vision or goals.The board is composed of
10 directors, nine of whom are independent. All directors and
executive officers combined own 29% of stock, with members
of the Fisher family being the majority of the holders. Total
ownership by various members of the Fisher family is 40.7% of
outstanding shares and is held by Doris Fisher, John J. Fisher,
Robert J. Fisher, William S. Fisher, and Fisher Core Holdings.
We think that a high degree of shareownership aligns the
board’s interest with shareholders. Over the last five years,
Gap’s stock has delivered a 30% compound annual growth rate,
well ahead of the S&P 500 which grew at 19%. We are satisfied
with management’s use of cash to invest in technology and
better supply chain management, to grow high-margin brands
and distribution channels, and to return cash to shareholders
through dividends and share repurchases.Overview Profile: Gap
is a global apparel and accessories retailer for men, women, and
children operating under the brands of Gap, Banana Republic,
Old Navy, Piperlime, Athleta, and Intermix. Distribution
channels include over 3,000 specialty and outlet stores, online,
and franchises. About 77% of revenue is generated in the U.S.
and almost 80% of revenue comes from the Gap and Old Navy
brands.S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright @ 2014
GPS ISGAP INC (GPS) INCOME STATEMENTFiscal year
ends in January. USD in millions except per share data.2010-
012011-012012-012013-012014-
01Revenue14,19714,66414,54915,65116,148YOY growth
rate3%-1%8%3%Avg.3%CAGR3%gs19%21%17%32%32%GDP
- current $Cost of revenue8,4738,7759,2759,4809,855Gross
profit5,7245,8895,2746,1716,293Operating expensesOther
operating expenses3,9093,9213,8364,2294,144Total operating
expenses3,9093,9213,8364,2294,144Operating
income1,8151,9681,4381,9422,1498%-
27%35%11%Avg.7%CAGR4%Interest Expense6748761Other
income (expense)714565Income before income
taxes1,8161,9821,3691,8612,093Provision for income
taxes71477853672681339%39%39%39%39%Avg.39%Net
income from continuing operations1,1021,2048331,1351,280Net
income1,1021,2048331,1351,2809%-
31%36%13%Avg.7%CAGR4%Net income available to common
shareholders1,1021,2048331,1351,280Earnings per
shareBasic1.591.891.572.352.78YOY growth rate19%-
17%50%18%Avg.17%CAGR15%Diluted1.581.881.562.332.74W
eighted average shares
outstandingBasic694636529482461Diluted699641533488467EB
ITDA2,4772,6302,0352,5072,690YOY growth rate6%-
23%23%7%Avg.4%CAGR2%ROIC19%24%16%23%24%NOPA
T1105119887611821308Invested
capital58544970535351265429Free cash
flow1760240290820071398
GPS BSGAP INC (GPS) BALANCE SHEETFiscal year ends in
January. USD in millions except per share data.2010-012011-
012012-012013-012014-01AssetsCurrent assetsCashCash and
cash equivalents2,3481,5611,8851,4601,510Short-term
investments22510050Total
cash2,5731,6611,8851,5101,51030%19%20%16%15%Receivabl
es205297331462Inventories1,4771,6201,6151,7581,928Deferred
income taxes193190220179Prepaid
expenses260145211242Other current
assets161105512102109Total current
assets4,6643,9264,3094,1324,430Non-current assetsProperty,
plant and equipmentLand1,0861,0931,0961,1011,106Fixtures
and equipment3,2493,3403,4233,5423,666Other
properties3,0923,1403,2643,2673,387Property and equipment,
at cost7,4277,5737,7837,9108,159CapEx-146 -210 -127 -249
Accumulated Depreciation-4,799 -5,010 -5,260 -5,291 -5,401
Property, plant and equipment,
net2,6282,5632,5232,6192,758Goodwill999999184180Intangibl
e assets615777132131Other long-term
assets533420414403350Total non-current
assets3,3213,1393,1133,3383,419Total
assets7,9857,0657,4227,4707,849Liabilities and stockholders'
equityLiabilitiesCurrent liabilitiesShort-term debt5925Accounts
payable1,0271,0491,0661,1441,242Taxes
payable4150510836Accrued liabilities1,063996395395369Other
current liabilities603697773Total current
liabilities2,1312,0952,1282,3442,445NWC2,5331,8312,1811,78
81,985702-350 393-197 Non-current liabilitiesLong-term
debt8901,6061,2461,369Capital leases933Other long-term
liabilities963986973Total non-current
liabilities9638902,5392,2322,342Total
liabilities3,0942,9854,6674,5764,787Stockholders'
equityCommon stock555555Additional paid-in
capital2,9352,9392,8672,8642,899Retained
earnings10,81511,76712,36413,25914,218Treasury stock-9,069
-10,866 -12,760 -13,465 -14,245 Accumulated other
comprehensive income210240229181135Total stockholders'
equity4,8914,0802,7552,8943,062Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity7,9857,0657,4227,4707,849
GPS CFGAP INC (GPS) Statement of CASH FLOWFiscal year
ends in January. USD in millions except per share data.2010-
012011-012012-012013-012014-01Cash Flows From Operating
ActivitiesNet income1,1021,2041,1351,280Depreciation &
amortization655648592559536Amortization of debt
discount/premium and issuance costs-82 -86 -86 -76 -66
Deferred income taxes-50 93-11 -37 69Stock based
compensation647758113116Inventory43-127 4-143 -193
Accounts payable40-7 1191105Accrued liabilities-23 -141 -45
68-5 Income taxes payable6466-91 146-74 Other working
capital105-38 27703Other non-cash items105590410-66 Net
cash provided by operating
activities1,9281,7441,3631,9361,705Cash Flows From Investing
ActivitiesInvestments in property, plant, and equipment-334 -
557 -548 -659 -670 Property, plant, and equipment
reductions1Acquisitions, net-129 Purchases of investments-350
-475 -50 -200 Sales/Maturities of
investments12560015015050Other investing charges213-6 -6 -4
Net cash used for investing activities-537 -429 -454 -844 -624
Cash Flows From Financing ActivitiesShort-term borrowing316-
19 Long-term debt issued1,646144Long-term debt repayment-50
-400 Excess tax benefit from stock based
compensation4111316Common stock issued174Repurchases of
treasury stock-547 -1,959 -2,092 -1,030 -979 Cash dividends
paid-234 -252 -236 -240 -321 Other financing
activities56705133146Net cash provided by (used for) financing
activities-771 -2,127 -602 -1,481 -1,004 Effect of exchange rate
changes132517-36 -27 Net change in cash633-787 324-425
50Cash at beginning of period1,7152,3481,5611,8851,460Cash
at end of period2,3481,5611,8851,4601,510Free Cash
FlowOperating cash flow1,9281,7441,3631,9361,705Capital
expenditure-334 -557 -548 -659 -670 Free cash
flow1,5941,1878151,2771,035Supplemental schedule of cash
flow dataCash paid for income taxes702677599582805Cash paid
for interest31458377
GPS RatiosKey Ratios -> ProfitabilityMargins % of Sales2010-
012011-012012-012013-012014-
01Revenue100100100100100COGS59.759.863.860.661.0Gross
Margin40.340.236.339.439.0SG&AR&DOther27.526.726.427.02
5.7Operating Margin12.813.49.912.413.3Net Int Inc &
Other0.00.1-0.5-0.5-0.4EBT
Margin12.813.59.411.913.0Profitability2010-012011-012012-
012013-012014-01Tax Rate %39.339.339.239.038.8Net Margin
%7.88.25.77.37.9Asset Turnover
(Average)1.82.02.02.12.1Return on Assets
%14.216.011.515.216.7Financial Leverage
(Average)1.61.72.72.62.6Return on Equity
%23.826.824.440.243.0Return on Invested Capital
%23.722.416.925.030.7Interest Coverage303.719.522.435.3Key
Ratios -> Growth2010-012011-012012-012013-012014-
01Revenue %Year over Year-2.33.3-0.87.63.23-Year Average-
3.8-2.40.13.33.35-Year Average-2.7-1.8-1.8-0.12.110-Year
Average2.00.70.50.80.2Operating Income %Year over
Year17.38.4-26.935.110.73-Year Average15.614.4-2.42.33.05-
Year Average-2.72.44.18.16.810-Year Average-
0.03.115.66.71.4Net Income %Year over Year14.09.3-
30.836.312.83-Year Average12.313.1-4.91.02.15-Year Average-
0.91.61.46.45.810-Year Average-0.23.29.12.2EPS %Year over
Year17.919.0-17.049.417.63-Year
Average19.321.45.213.813.45-Year
Average5.58.710.917.315.410-Year Average2.36.515.79.7Key
Ratios -> Cash Flow2010-012011-012012-012013-012014-
01Cash Flow RatiosOperating Cash Flow Growth % YOY-
954Free Cash Flow Growth % YOYCap Ex as a % of
Sales2.43.83.84.24.2Free Cash Flow/Sales
%11.28.15.68.26.4Free Cash Flow/Net
Income1.51.01.01.10.8Key Ratios -> Financial Health2010-
012011-012012-012013-012014-01Balance Sheet Items (in
%)Cash & Short-Term
Investments32.223.525.420.219.2Accounts
Receivable2.94.04.45.9Inventory18.522.921.823.524.6Other
Current Assets7.76.26.97.16.8Total Current
Assets58.455.658.155.356.4Net
PP&E32.936.334.035.135.1Intangibles2.02.22.44.24.0Other
Long-Term Assets6.75.95.65.44.5Total
Assets100100100100100Accounts
Payable12.914.914.415.315.8Short-Term Debt0.80.3Taxes
Payable0.50.70.11.50.5Accrued
Liabilities13.314.15.35.34.7Other Short-Term
Liabilities8.19.39.9Total Current
Liabilities26.729.728.731.431.2Long-Term
Debt12.621.616.717.4Other Long-Term
Liabilities12.112.613.212.4Total
Liabilities38.842.362.961.361.0Total Stockholders'
Equity61.357.837.138.739.0Total Liabilities &
Equity100100100100100Liquidity/Financial Health2010-
012011-012012-012013-012014-01Current
Ratio2.21.92.01.81.8Quick Ratio1.20.91.00.80.8Financial
Leverage1.61.72.72.62.6Debt/Equity0.20.90.40.5Key Ratios ->
Efficiency Ratios2010-012011-012012-012013-012014-
01EfficiencyDays Sales Outstanding5.16.37.39.0Days
Inventory64.364.463.764.968.3Payables
Period43.143.241.642.544.2Cash Conversion
Cycle26.328.329.733.0Receivables
Turnover71.558.049.840.7Inventory
Turnover5.75.75.75.65.4Fixed Assets
Turnover5.15.75.76.16.0Asset Turnover1.82.02.02.12.1
GPD Key StatsKey StatisticsData provided by Capital IQ,
except where noted.Trading InformationValuation
MeasuresStock Price HistoryMarket Cap
(intraday)5:17.15BBeta:1.67Enterprise Value (Nov 19,
2014)3:16.99B52-Week Change3:-4.6%Trailing P/E (ttm,
intraday):14.5S&P500 52-Week Change3:15.2%Forward P/E
(fye Feb 1, 2016)1:12.552-Week High (Sep 4, 2014)3:46.9PEG
Ratio (5 yr expected)1:1.152-Week Low (Oct 16,
2014)3:35.5Price/Sales (ttm):1.150-Day Moving
Average3:38.3Price/Book (mrq):5.8200-Day Moving
Average3:41.0Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:1.0Share
StatisticsEnterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6:6.5Avg Vol (3
month)3:4,823,180Financial HighlightsAvg Vol (10
day)3:2,984,710Fiscal YearShares Outstanding5:434.86MFiscal
Year Ends:2/1/14Float:272.72MMost Recent Quarter
(mrq):8/2/14% Held by Insiders1:40.8%Profitability% Held by
Institutions1:56.1%Profit Margin (ttm):7.6%Shares Short (as of
Oct 31, 2014)3:8.07MOperating Margin (ttm):12.8%Short Ratio
(as of Oct 31, 2014)3:1.2Management EffectivenessShort % of
Float (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:3.3%Return on Assets
(ttm):16.8%Shares Short (prior month)3:7.87MReturn on Equity
(ttm):38.6%Dividends & SplitsIncome StatementForward
Annual Dividend Rate4:0.88Revenue (ttm):16.31BForward
Annual Dividend Yield4:2.20%Revenue Per Share
(ttm):36.32Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3:0.86Qtrly Revenue
Growth (yoy):2.9%Trailing Annual Dividend
Yield3:2.20%Gross Profit (ttm):6.29B5 Year Average Dividend
Yield4:1.90%EBITDA (ttm)6:2.63BPayout Ratio4:31.0%Net
Income Avl to Common (ttm):1.24BDividend
Date3:1/28/15Diluted EPS (ttm):2.71Ex-Dividend
Date4:1/5/15Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):9.6%Last Split Factor
(new per old)2:3:02Balance SheetLast Split Date3:6/22/99Total
Cash (mrq):1.52BTotal Cash Per Share (mrq):3.49Total Debt
(mrq):1.39BTotal Debt/Equity (mrq):47.28Current Ratio
(mrq):1.9Book Value Per Share (mrq):6.8Cash Flow
StatementOperating Cash Flow (ttm):1.84BLevered Free Cash
Flow (ttm):1.12BSee Key Statistics Help for definitions of
terms used.Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M =
Millions; B = Billionsmrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Aug 2,
2014) ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Aug 2, 2014) yoy =
Year Over Year (as of Aug 2, 2014) lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as
of Feb 1, 2014) fye = Fiscal Year Ending1 Data provided by
Thomson Reuters2 Data provided by EDGAR Online3 Data
derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo!
Finance4 Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.5 Shares
outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or
annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares
outstanding.6 EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using
methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its
reportinghttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/capiq/SIG=10r7m9m4m
/*http:/www.capitaliq.com/http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/fin
ance/tools/fitakeystats.html
Sheet1Bonds being traded and reported in Finra's
websiteRatingOutstanding
(000)CouponMaturityPriceYTMYears to MaturityCurrent value
(000) Note to students -- do not use this
folder!Mosaic12/4/13MOS.GDBBB3004.9%11/15/4191.423.8%
28.0274MOS.GSBBB4503.8%11/15/2199.243.9%8.0447MOS.40
6BBB9004.3%11/15/2399.634.3%10.0897MOS.40692BBB5005.
5%11/15/33101.885.3%20.0509MOS.4069206BBB6005.6%11/1
5/43101.795.5%30.06112,750Wt. avg4.6%2,738Potash
CorpPOT.GDA35005.9%12/1/36107.445.3%23.0537POT.GEA3
5005.3%5/15/14102.030.7%0.4510POT.GFA35006.5%5/15/191
20.642.4%5.4603POT.GGA35003.8%9/30/15105.150.9%1.8526
POT.GHA35004.9%3/30/20110.353.1%6.3552POT.ABA35005.6
%12/1/40106.205.2%27.0531POT.AAA35003.3%12/1/17105.58
1.8%4.05283,500Wt. avg2.8%3,787Source Finra.org

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AssignmentInvestment Management, Fin 3720Final examAgreement By s.docx

  • 1. AssignmentInvestment Management, Fin 3720Final examAgreement: By submitting the complete final exam to Bb I agree that I have not given any help to another student nor has another person given help to me.Fall 20141. Only open Blackboard and Excel on your computer.2. Please save your file frequently on the computer's desktop.3. Please use the cells to the right of the data to make calculations, or you can add rows in the ss to make calculations.4. Write your comments in the folder "Written comments".5. When done rename the file to your ID number (no names) and post in Bb and email to [email protected]AssignmentWelcome to Alpha Value Investors, LLC. We are pleased you have joined our investment firm, and hope that you appreciate our approach to investing. Almost all of our clients have well-diversified, efficient portfolios. Most have a "reasonably conservative" risk profile, but are also interested in having a non-core part of their portfolios invested in individual securities.Unfortunately, Mike has been called to a meeting, but he would like your help on a recommendation to the investment committee. As a retail industry analyst, he is considering recommending one of two stocks to our clients next week. The firms are the Gap, Inc. (GPS) and Coach, Inc. (COH).In this file are analyst reports and data on the firms. Please analyze these two companies and make a recommendation of one firm to our clients to be purchased as a long-term investment. The non-core, security portion of their portfolios are balanced across sectors but additional weight in the consumer cyclical sector would improve the allocation. The investment committee meeting is in two hours and Mike will meet you out side the meeting room so please complete your analysis in this file and be prepared to share your findings with the committee and Mike. Written commentsWritten comments:Note: Your are welcome to format this areas as you like to present the most compelling case for investing in one of the firms.
  • 2. FrameworkBAGrowth70%80%Perf. Ratios70%60%Mkt. Metrics90%70%Cash flow70%65%Value Creation70%95% B Growth Perf. Ratios Mkt. Metrics Cash flow Value Creation 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 A Growth Perf. Ratios Mkt. Metrics Cash flow Value Creation 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.65 0.95 FormulasFormulasSustainable growth rate gs = ROE * bInternal growth rate gi = ROE * b * (E/A)Free Cash Flow Ebit * (1-t) + depreciation - change in NWC - CapExDividend Discount Model (constant-growth)P0 = (D1 / (ke - gss))Value with non- constant growth modelsP0 = (Div1 / (1+ r)1) + (Div2 / (1+ r)2) + (Div3 / (1+ r)3) +(TV3 / (1+ r)3)Where TV3 = (Div4 / (r - gss))And, where Divn cnd be substituted for FCFnAnd, where ke is also called rAnd, where Terminal Value (TV) also called Horizontal ValueDividend Discount Model (no-growth)P0 = Div1 / keHolding period returnReturn = (D1 + (P1 - P0)) / P0CAPMke = rf + β (rm - rf), last element often referred to as "market premium"WACCWACC = ke (E / (E + D)) + kd (1 - t) (D / (E + D)), at market weightsReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC)(EBIT * (1-t)) / (Total assets - excess cash (if any) - non-interesting bearing current liabilities)Note: There are many ways to calculate ROIC, this is just one simple one. Analyst Note COHCoach is investing in its brand for the long term, although patience is needed in the short term.by Paul Swinand Authors can be reached at Analyst Feedback Morningstar's Editorial PoliciesAnalyst NoteCoach's Fiscal 1Q Sales and Earnings Show Brand Relaunch On Track; Shares Still Below Fair Value by Paul Swinand, 10/28/2014MorningstarInvestment Thesis 10/13/2014 Coach has developed a narrow economic moat through a brand that enables pricing, sourcing and distribution advantages, and capital efficiency. Despite the company's recent struggles, it is still creating economic profits, and at a level greater than most
  • 3. retailers.Attention to capital efficiency and consumers' strong brand loyalty have been key drivers of Coach's economic returns. We judge brand to be more important in bags and leather accessories than other softgoods categories as consumers tend to be more brand-loyal. Despite Coach's long-run plans to increase penetration in footwear and ready-to-wear, we believe accessories will remain the core of the business. The men's business also offers some upside; it currently constitutes around 14% of sales. Coach's international business is still underdeveloped and represents an opportunity if growth there can continue for the long run. Although fiscal 2013 and 2014 struggles highlight Coach's market concentration in North America, using long-run success in Japan as a guide, we think there is plenty of room for Coach to take market share in other geographies. In Japan, Coach has had flat to low-single-digit growth for the past 10 years while competitors generally have experienced declines. The company entered Europe in 2012 through department store partnerships and is now penetrating further wholesale accounts and opening retail stores. We believe there is room for a brand such as Coach offering uniquely American styles and high-quality products at lower price points. In China, Coach lags other luxury brands with respect to sales, but has greater growth potential. The company increased its China business to more than $100 million in 2010 and approximately $550 million in fiscal 2014. Coach should also see higher operating margins in China as it expands because of lower operating costs and higher gross margins. In Europe, where Coach has just a small number of boutiques and is developing dedicated shops in department stores, the company should leverage selling, general, and administrative expenses over time and now projects $100 million in revenue in fiscal 2015.Economic Moat 10/13/2014 While Coach might not have complete pricing power because of the price/value equation inherent at some level in consumers' decision to purchase its midtier luxury offerings, the company's ability to design, distribute, and source has historically enabled it to produce high
  • 4. operating margins. Coach's gross margins (currently in the high 60s despite recent headwinds), and gross margin return on investment (taking inventory value and turns into account) are among the best in our coverage list, lending evidence that the firm has some pricing power in the range where it competes. Despite the short-term adverse fashion cycle, we believe the Coach brand to be valuable and believe the company will again be able to return to high operating margins, which should drive returns on capital back into the high 20s and even 30s. Thus, in our opinion, Coach's brand and premium pricing warrant a narrow economic moat. Brand history and the extensive, directly operated, and wholesale distribution network also contribute to the defensibility of the position, in our thinking, and although currently in a reinvestment phase, the revamping and refurbishment of the network only serve to reinforce the brand image and solidify the economic moat. Our viewpoint is supported by returns on capital that have averaged over 40% before fiscal 2013. Operating margins have averaged above 30% in the past, and despite short-term declines in fiscal 2014 and 2015, they can eventually reach the high 20s again, in our view.Valuation 10/28/2014 Our fair value estimate remains $45 per share, as we have incorporated fiscal first-quarter results and management's reiteration of full-year guidance for low- double-digit revenue declines and high teens operating margins. Our fair value estimate implies 18 times forward fiscal June 2015 year-ending earnings per share. On an enterprise value/EBITDA basis, our valuation implies 9 times fiscal June 2015 estimates, and on a cash flow yield basis, our fair value estimate suggests approximately 3.7% cash flow yield for fiscal 2015, at the low end of a five-year historical range of 4%-6%. Fiscal 2015 metrics include $55 million in one-time charges for store closings and restructuring. Our estimate for earnings per share in fiscal 2015 has not changed from $1.69 GAAP, and our adjusted earnings per share estimate is up by one penny to $1.82. For fiscal 2015 (year ended June), we project a revenue decline of 13.1% (unchanged), with mid-20s negative same-
  • 5. store sales growth implied in North America. Gross margins are now forecast to be below 68%, less than company guidance for around 70%. Although cost pressure worries have diminished, increased SG&A around the design changes should cause operating margins to dip below 18%, in line with the company's expectations of high-teens operating margin but more negative than our prior assumptions. We model roughly 100 basis points of additional gross margin decline, year over year, in fiscal 2015, as we remain concerned that some inventory clearing may still have to occur in the outlets and that fresh product from the new designer may face some reluctant consumer acceptance. In fiscal 2015, we model capital spending of $450 million. Over our 10-year explicit forecast period, we model operating margins first averaging 23.7% for the first five years going from under 18% in fiscal 2015 to over 27% in year five, and remaining between 26% and 27% after that. This is somewhat more conservative than the company's plans to return to 30% operating margins by fiscal 2019. Top-line growth to reach our cash flow-based valuation averages just over 4%, or just over 6% excluding the previously mentioned 13% decline forecast for fiscal 2015. Although we have increased our capital spending assumptions for fiscal 2015 through 2017, we model spending eventually returning to 4%-5% of sales.Risk 10/13/2014 Remaining fashionable and extending the brand are constant risks at Coach, and as such we assign the firm a high uncertainty rating. If Coach extends the brand beyond what consumers understand it to be, the company could damage its core image or create confusion in consumers' minds. Coach has embarked on an ambitious plan to expand its product lines and become a full lifestyle brand, not unlike many older and more prestigious European luxury brands, but the strategy is not without risk. It is also now undertaking a pullback on promotions and a repositioning of the store base, in the same year it will launch new product lines from recently hired chief design officer Stuart Vevers. New designers hold promise, but there is always the risk that new lines and looks are not
  • 6. accepted by the public. In addition, there is fashion and execution risk at the product levels. Footwear does leverage some competitive advantages in leather sourcing but, in our opinion, is a different category from bags and accessories. Men's accessories have lower risk, in our opinion, and we agree that the men's leather goods market is underserved, but we cannot be sure that the extension will not dilute the women's business. The new fashion designs have met with very positive reviews in the fashion press, yet no amount of testing and publicity can assure success with consumers.While Coach has established a niche in the fashion world, and customers are very brand-loyal in the handbag and accessories category, it runs the risk that changes in tastes and preferences will eventually lead consumers to believe it is a brand for a past era. Coach also has been successful thus far extending the brand into new geographies, and a portion of our fair value estimate is based on that continued expansion. Today, sales growth prospects appear strong, but there is a risk that new entrants or other market forces could derail the international projects that today look promising for Coach.Management 10/13/2014 Lew Frankfort was replaced by Victor Luis at the beginning of 2014. Luis, who was head of international operations, has been assembling a new team of designers and management, including a new creative director, Stuart Vevers. His experience includes terms as CEO of Baccarat, running North America, and with other LVMH brands earlier in his career. We believe his international experience will be important to develop the future growth of the firm. A majority of Coach's board is independent, and officers and directors own nearly 5% of the shares outstanding. Frankfort is currently chairman but will retire after the November annual meeting. Jide Zeitlin, currently the lead outside director, will be appointed the next chairman of the board. Thus the chairman and CEO roles will remain split, a structure we view favorably. We believe management does a good job of providing transparency around the business. Overall, corporate governance is sound and aligned with
  • 7. shareholders, in our opinion, and we rate Coach's stewardship of shareholder capital as exemplary given its long record of above- average returns and recent actions to return cash to shareholders. We note that in 2013, Frankfort bought Coach shares on the open market, despite having announced his diminishing role.Overview Profile: Coach is a manufacturer, distributor, and retailer of handbags and accessories and is expanding to broader product categories. Its products offer the quality of higher luxury brands but at more attractive price points. While 60% of sales come from more than 500 North American retail stores, Coach also sells its products through department stores, international shops, the Internet, its catalog, and Coach stores in Japan and China. Coach recently established a foothold in Europe, where it plans to reach $100 million in sales in fiscal 2015.S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright @ 2014 COH ISCOACH INC (COH) INCOME STATEMENTFiscal year ends in June. USD in millions except per share data.2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014- 06Revenue3,6084,1594,7635,0754,806YOY growth rate15%15%7%- 5%Avg.8%CAGR7%gs40%45%43%32%17%GDP - current $GDP raalGDP const.Cost of revenue9741,1351,2971,3771,509Gross profit2,6343,0243,4663,6983,297Operating expensesSales, General and administrative1,4841,7191,9542,1742,177YOY growth rate16%14%11%0%Avg.10%CAGR10%Operating income1,1501,3051,5121,5251,12013%16%1%- 27%Avg.1%CAGR-1%Other income (expense)2-4 -6 -4 2Income before income taxes1,1521,3011,5061,5211,122Provision for income taxes41742046748634136%32%31%32%30%Avg.32%Net income from continuing operations7358811,0391,034781Net income7358811,0391,03478120%18%-0%- 24%Avg.3%CAGR2%Net income available to common shareholders7358811,0391,034781Earnings per
  • 8. shareBasic2.362.993.603.662.81YOY growth rate27%20%2%- 23%Avg.6%CAGR4%Diluted2.332.923.533.612.79Weighted average shares outstandingBasic311295288282278Diluted316302294286280EB ITDA1,2771,4301,6451,6881,309YOY growth rate12%15%3%- 22%Avg.2%CAGR1%ROIC40%43%42%37%25%NOPAT77888 310231031757Invested capital1,9382,0432,4082,8102,990Free cash flow9057917627981,237 COH BSCOACH INC (COH) BALANCE SHEETFiscal year ends in June. USD in millions except per share data.2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014-06AssetsCurrent assetsCashCash and cash equivalents5967009171,063592Short- term investments100272277Total cash6967029171,13586971%62%71%82%58%Receivables10914 3174175199Inventories363422504525526Deferred income taxes779495111113Prepaid expenses303845Other current assets269211387104Total current assets1,3031,4521,8052,0711,855Non-current assetsProperty, plant and equipmentLand155169169169169Fixtures and equipment364427525598579Other properties515570638700734Property and equipment, at cost1,0341,1661,3321,4671,482CapEx-132 -166 -135 -15 Accumulated Depreciation-485 -584 -687 -772 -768 Property, plant and equipment, net548582644695714Equity and other investments6197485Goodwill306331376345361Intangible assets1010101010Deferred income taxes1561049585112Other long-term assets138156174129127Total non-current assets1,1641,1831,3001,4611,808Total assets2,4672,6353,1043,5323,663Liabilities and stockholders' equityLiabilitiesCurrent liabilitiesShort-term debt11220140Accounts payable106119155179154Accrued liabilities423408455448426Other current liabilities65869593Total current liabilities529593718723813NWC7748591,0871,3481,042-85 - 228 -261 306Non-current liabilitiesLong-term debt242310Deferred taxes liabilities60Deferred
  • 9. revenues163139Other long-term liabilities409244253400370Total non-current liabilities433430393400429Total liabilities9621,0231,1111,1231,242Stockholders' equityCommon stock3333Additional paid-in capital1,5032,0002,3272,5202,646Retained earnings-30 -446 - 387 -102 -219 Accumulated other comprehensive income325550-12 -9 Total stockholders' equity1,5051,6131,9932,4092,421Total liabilities and stockholders' equity2,4672,6353,1043,5323,663 COA CFCOACH INC (COH) Statement of CASH FLOWFiscal year ends in June. USD in millions except per share data.2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014-06Cash Flows From Operating ActivitiesNet income7358811,0391,034781Depreciation & amortization127125133163189Deferred income taxes-17 4028-7 -23 Stock based compensation819610812095Accounts receivable4-32 -27 -14 -24 Inventory-34 -65 -72 -39 -64 Accounts payable1103630-30 Accrued liabilities6854849914Other working capital64-29 -40 27-58 Other non-cash items-39 -46 -67 0105Net cash provided by operating activities9911,0331,2221,414985Cash Flows From Investing ActivitiesInvestments in property, plant, and equipment-81 -148 -184 -241 -220 Acquisitions, net-1 -53 -147 -4 Purchases of investments-230 -234 -171 -631 Sales/Maturities of investments1303222146Other investing charges-24 -11 Net cash used for investing activities-182 -60 - 259 -570 -708 Cash Flows From Financing ActivitiesShort-term borrowing-7 Long-term debt issued450Long-term debt repayment-1 -1 -1 -22 -310 Excess tax benefit from stock based compensation2858682712Warrant issued185Repurchases of treasury stock-1,150 -1,098 -700 -400 -525 Cash dividends paid-94 -178 -260 -340 -376 Other financing activities205344- 34 462Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities- 1,020 -875 -742 -689 -748 Effect of exchange rate changes75-3 -9 -1 Net change in cash-204 103217146-471 Cash at beginning of period8005967009171,063Cash at end of
  • 10. period5967009171,063592Free Cash FlowOperating cash flow9911,0331,2221,414985Capital expenditure-81 -148 -184 - 241 -220 Free cash flow9108861,0371,173766Supplemental schedule of cash flow dataCash paid for income taxes364364439445Cash paid for interest1121 COA RatiosKey Ratios -> ProfitabilityMargins % of Sales2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014- 06Revenue100100100100100COGS27.027.327.227.131.4Gross Margin73.072.772.872.968.6SG&A41.141.341.042.845.3R&DOt herOperating Margin31.931.431.730.023.3Net Int Inc & Other0.1-0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1EBT Margin31.931.331.630.023.4Profitability2010-062011-062012- 062013-062014-06Tax Rate %36.232.331.032.030.4Net Margin %20.421.221.820.416.3Asset Turnover (Average)1.41.61.71.51.3Return on Assets %29.234.536.231.221.7Financial Leverage (Average)1.61.61.61.51.5Return on Equity %45.956.557.647.032.4Return on Invested Capital %45.155.656.946.731.4Interest CoverageKey Ratios -> Growth2010-062011-062012-062013-062014-06Revenue %Year over Year11.715.314.56.6-5.3 3-Year Average11.49.413.812.14.95-Year Average16.114.512.89.88.310-Year Average20.721.020.818.213.8Operating Income %Year over Year18.313.515.90.8-26.5 3-Year Average5.04.415.99.9-5.0 5- Year Average13.111.38.85.92.910-Year Average35.329.127.520.19.7Net Income %Year over Year17.919.918.0-0.4 -24.5 3-Year Average3.54.018.612.1-3.9 5-Year Average13.612.39.45.74.610-Year Average34.330.028.321.611.6EPS %Year over Year22.025.320.92.3-22.7 3-Year Average9.810.422.715.7-1.5 5-Year Average18.418.114.910.77.910-Year Average36.331.431.124.815.2Key Ratios -> Cash Flow2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014-06Cash Flow RatiosOperating Cash Flow Growth % YOY428Free Cash Flow Growth % YOY- 266 Cap Ex as a % of Sales2.33.63.94.84.6Free Cash Flow/Sales
  • 11. %25.221.321.823.115.9Free Cash Flow/Net Income1.21.01.01.11.0Key Ratios -> Financial Health2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014-06Balance Sheet Items (in %)Cash & Short-Term Investments2827303224Accounts Receivable45655Inventory1516161514Other Current Assets57777Total Current Assets5355585951Net PP&E2222212019Intangibles1313121010Other Long-Term Assets121091220Total Assets100100100100100Accounts Payable45554Short-Term Debt00104Taxes PayableAccrued Liabilities1716151312Other Short-Term Liabilities2333Total Current Liabilities2123232022Long-Term Debt1100Other Long- Term Liabilities1715131112Total Liabilities3939363234Total Stockholders' Equity6161646866Total Liabilities & Equity100100100100100Liquidity/Financial Health2010- 062011-062012-062013-062014-06Current Ratio2.52.52.52.92.3Quick Ratio1.51.41.51.81.3Financial Leverage1.61.61.61.51.5Debt/Equity0.00.0Key Ratios -> Efficiency Ratios2010-062011-062012-062013-062014- 06EfficiencyDays Sales Outstanding11.011.112.212.614.2Days Inventory129.2126.2130.3136.4127.1Payables Period39.136.138.644.340.2Cash Conversion Cycle101.1101.3103.9104.7101.0Receivables Turnover33.133.030.029.025.7Inventory Turnover2.82.92.82.72.9Fixed Assets Turnover6.37.47.87.66.8Asset Turnover1.41.61.71.51.3 COA Key StatsFrom Yahoo! FinanceKey StatisticsData provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.Trading InformationValuation MeasuresStock Price HistoryMarket Cap (intraday)5:9.74BBeta:0.75Enterprise Value (Nov 19, 2014)3:8.99B52-Week Change3:-34.0%Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):14.4S&P500 52-Week Change3:15.2%Forward P/E (fye Jun 28, 2016)1:17.252-Week High (Nov 29, 2013)3:57.95PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1:3.452-Week Low (Nov 5, 2014)3:32.72Price/Sales (ttm):2.150-Day Moving Average3:34.69Price/Book (mrq):4.0200-Day Moving Average3:36.62Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:1.9Share
  • 12. StatisticsEnterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6:6.9Avg Vol (3 month)3:4,109,440Financial HighlightsAvg Vol (10 day)3:3,709,440Fiscal YearShares Outstanding5:275.59MFiscal Year Ends:6/28/14Float:273.22MMost Recent Quarter (mrq):9/27/14% Held by Insiders1:0.91%Profitability% Held by Institutions1:89.30%Profit Margin (ttm):14.5%Shares Short (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:26.04MOperating Margin (ttm):23.7%Short Ratio (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:5.4Management EffectivenessShort % of Float (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:9.5%Return on Assets (ttm):19.5%Shares Short (prior month)3:27.73MReturn on Equity (ttm):28.3%Dividends & SplitsIncome StatementForward Annual Dividend Rate4:1.35Revenue (ttm):4.69BForward Annual Dividend Yield4:3.8%Revenue Per Share (ttm):17Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3:1.35Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):-9.70%Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3:3.8%Gross Profit (ttm):3.30B5 Year Average Dividend Yield4:2.3%EBITDA (ttm)6:1.30BPayout Ratio4:55.0%Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):682.54MDividend Date3:12/29/14Diluted EPS (ttm):2.45Ex-Dividend Date4:12/3/14Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):-45.30%Last Split Factor (new per old)2:2:01Balance SheetLast Split Date3:4/5/05Total Cash (mrq):907.50MTotal Cash Per Share (mrq):3.29Total Debt (mrq):170.00MTotal Debt/Equity (mrq):6.97Current Ratio (mrq):2.37Book Value Per Share (mrq):8.85Cash Flow StatementOperating Cash Flow (ttm):960.21MLevered Free Cash Flow (ttm):705.62MSee Key Statistics Help for definitions of terms used.Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billionsmrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Sep 27, 2014) ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Sep 27, 2014) yoy = Year Over Year (as of Sep 27, 2014) lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Jun 28, 2014) fye = Fiscal Year Ending1 Data provided by Thomson Reuters2 Data provided by EDGAR Online3 Data derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance4 Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.5 Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is
  • 13. calculated using shares outstanding.6 EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its reportingCurrency in USD.http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/capiq/SIG=10r7m9m4m/*ht tp:/www.capitaliq.com/http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/finance /tools/fitakeystats.html Analyst Note GPSGap has a positive moat trend, but we expect near-term weakness in the core Gap brand.Morningstar, IncBridget WeishaarAnalyst Note 11/06/2014 In tonight's October monthly sales report, Gap reported third-quarter sales and updated earnings guidance. As expected, Gap's third-quarter comp growth came in on the weak side, suffering under the pressure of product missteps at the core Gap brand. That being said, guidance for third-quarter earnings per share in the range of $0.78-$0.79 was better than we'd expected, with management stating strength in both gross margin rate and operating expenses. We await additional commentary on earnings performance but tentatively think that this could be a reflection of improving inventory management and supply chain investments--the basis for our positive moat trend rating. Although we expect it to take some time to get the Gap product back on track, we remain comfortable in the intrinsic strength of the brand portfolio and our narrow moat rating. We expect no change to our $48 fair value estimate as we expect the unexpected strength in margin to offset most of the weakness in the top line. We look forward to additional color when the company presents its third-quarter results on Nov. 20.Total third-quarter comparable sales declined 2% year over year with Gap Global down 5%, Banana Republic Global flat, and Old Navy Global up 1%. For the third quarter, Gap's net sales were $3.97 billion, down from $3.98 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2013. Management now expects diluted earnings per share of $0.78 to $0.79 for the quarter (including a $0.06 benefit from a lower effective tax rate versus third quarter 2013), up from $0.72 in third quarter fiscal 2013 and better than expectations at the September sales update. As a reminder, in the September
  • 14. sales release, management had expected gross margins for the third quarter to be moderately down from the prior year and that operating expenses would be approximately 8% above the third quarter of 2013.Investment Thesis 08/25/2014 Gap is one of the most iconic of American brands, selling basics at affordable prices. The company scored a second hit with Old Navy, which has a slightly more family and value oriented bent. Together the two brands compose almost 80% of the company’s revenue. Although competition has flooded the space, namely through fast fashion retailers H&M, Zara, and Uniqlo, the company has delivered about 14% average annual adjusted return on invested capital over the last three years--evidence of brand strength and a narrow economic moat, in our opinion. The challenge the company now faces is to minimize fashion misses and inventory mismatches through a responsive supply chain, to become more technologically sophisticated for younger consumers, and to maintain a differentiated and relevant brand identity in the face of growing fast fashion competition.On many fronts Gap is succeeding. The company has been right-sizing its store base while growing its online presence, shedding about 14% of the North America specialty fleet since 2008 and growing e- commerce to 14% of sales in 2013 (roughly doubling in five years). In fact, rebalancing the portfolio toward online, outlet stores (550 by the end of 2014), and franchise stores (450 stores by end of 2014) has contributed about 12 points of contribution shifts toward higher returning channels since 2008 (now 31% of business). We think further margin expansion is on the horizon and that this is an underappreciated opportunity. We believe that investments in seamless inventory, omni-channel, and responsive supply chain development could narrow the spread between Gap's 12% average operating margin (last three years) and the high teens margins at fast-fashion competitors Inditex and H&M. Successful execution of these projects should put Gap’s planning calendar and manufacturing and distribution processes more in line with global competition and enable a pull-based ordering system which better aligns supply and
  • 15. demand and increases full-price sell-through. We think returns can begin to be seen in 2015 and that full seamless inventory and 50% penetration of the responsive model assortment can be achieved by the end of 2016.Economic Moat 08/25/2014 We are maintaining Gap’s narrow moat rating primarily to reflect the strength of the Gap and Old Navy brand intangible assets as well as for the secondary reason of the cost efficiencies from economies of scale that we expect will continue to allow the company to achieve adjusted ROIC’s in the midteens for at least the next 10 years, well north of its 10% cost of capital.The Gap and Old Navy brands account for almost 80% of the company’s revenue and have shown strength across multiple geographies and distribution channels. In its 2014 publication, The Most Valuable U.S. Retail Brands, Interbrand ranked Gap number 24 and Old Navy number 26 on its list. On the Global Brand Survey completed in 2013, Interbrand ranked Gap number 100. We think this demonstrates the continuing cultural relevance of the brand, almost 45 years after its founding. Although fast fashion retailers including H&M, Zara, and Uniqlo have moved into the space, The Gap and Old Navy have remained synonymous with all-American casual basics at an affordable price. This has kept customers coming to its stores and willing to pay a price high enough to roughly maintain a gross margin of 39.0% in 2013 (a 40 basis point decline) versus 33.7% at American Eagle (a 630-basis-point decline) and 17.1% at Aeropostale (a 760 basis point decline). Scale also has provided the company with cost advantages, allowing Gap and Old Navy to be relatively price competitive with fast fashion retailers, while also preserving profitability. The company boasts more than 3,000 total stores, with over 1,300 Gaps and over 1,000 Old Navys. According to company reports, Gap Inc. generated $16 billion in revenue in 2013 versus a $2 billion mean at its U.S. competitors (Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle, Ann Taylor, Children's Place, Express, and Urban Outfitters). Operating margin averaged 12% over the last three years versus 18% at narrow-moat H&M and 19% at narrow-moat
  • 16. Inditex. Although below its large fast-fashion retailers, we note that this is still well above domestic competitors including Abercrombie & Fitch at 7%, American Eagle at 10%, and Aeropostale at (0.4)%. According to company documents, the average operating margin in 2013 of all U.S. peers (Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle, Ann Taylor, Children's Place, Express, and Urban Outfitters) was only 5% versus Gap’s 13%. Over the last five years, earnings per share has grown at a 15% compound annual growth rate versus the U.S. peers mean of a 38% decline.Valuation 08/25/2014 We are slightly lowering our fair value estimate to $48 from $50 as we see weakness in the core Gap brand pressuring near-term performance and the transition to a new CEO to increasing short-term volatility. That said, we continue to like the long-term story and we see operating margin expansion as the main driver of valuation as Gap has invested heavily in technology and supply chain systems which we believe can narrow the margin disparity between Gap and its global fast-fashion competitors. In our updated model, we think Gap can reach an operating margin of 15.4% in five years (down from 15.9% in our prior model) from 13.3% currently. This is still well below the high-teens margins of fast-fashion competitors. This reflects our belief that the company is successfully executing on its responsive supply chain, omnichannel, and seamless inventory initiatives as evidenced by its work on fabric platforming, reserve in store, and order in store. In 2014, we are continuing to model 3% revenue growth but now expect the operating margin to decline to 12.7% from 13.3% in 2013 versus our prior expectation for a 10-basis-point year-over-year increase in operating margin to 13.4%. We think poor merchandising (product was too spring-forward) and heavy inventory levels weighed on first-half results. In our opinion, products at the core Gap brand remain uninspiring and the new ad campaign from Wieden+Kennedy appears to be failing to resonate with consumers. We expect discounting to weigh on 2014 margins. However, we are encouraged that Banana
  • 17. Republic is showing some signs of a turnaround with improved marketing and more contemporary merchandising. Ultimately we see full year top-line growth driven by flat comparable sales and a 3% increase in stores. Over the next five years, we continue to expect 4% average annual revenue growth driven by 2% comparable sales growth on average and 3% new store growth weighted toward factory stores, Asia expansion, and franchises. We think operating margins will expand from 13.3% in 2013 to 15.4% in 2018 (7% average annual operating income growth) on improved responsiveness and supply chain management. This estimate is slightly lower than our prior expectation for operating margin to reach 15.9% in 2018 as we see deleverage due to the core Gap brand offsetting some of the upside of investments in the near term. We note that this is still below average high teen margins at H&M and Inditex.Risk 10/09/2014 We are giving Gap a medium uncertainty rating. We believe that exposure to economic risks including unemployment, wage growth, consumer confidence, and debt is compounded by fashion risk, a competitive and overcrowded apparel retail space with no barriers to entry, international expansion, and difficulty in implementing change in a large organization. From fiscal 2011 through 2013, monthly comparable sales have ranged from an increase of 10% to a decrease of 3%. Over the past five years, operating margins have ranged from 13.4% in fiscal 2010 to 9.9% in fiscal 2011.Additionally, we believe the company could be facing some margin headwinds. With Asia being a high-growth geography and approximately 28% of purchases by dollar value from factories in China, Gap is exposed to rising wage costs in Asia. This could mean increased pressure on margins. Omni- channel investments may also have a less than expected impact on driving top-line growth and gross margin expansion.Offsetting these risks is Gap's established brand portfolio. We think the portfolio strategy at various price points hedges some of the risk of fashion misses or unique customer weakness at any one brand. Additionally, strong brands may
  • 18. inspire more customer loyalty and be slightly more sticky than brands with less history.Management 10/09/2014 We are giving Gap a Standard stewardship rating. Glenn Murphy is expected to depart from his CEO position in February 2015 and to be replaced by internal employee Art Peck. Although we're sorry to see Murphy go, we think Peck is a sound choice for CEO. Peck has the experience and skill set necessary to continue to execute Gap’s strategic goals as seamlessly as possible. Peck joined the company in 2005 after more than 20 years at Boston Consulting Group, and has worked in various brand, strategic, and operational roles within the company. He is currently serving as president of Gap’s growth, innovation, and digital operations, which we think positions him perfectly to continue Gap’s global expansion, digital strategy, and margin improvement initiatives. Having worked closely with Murphy, Peck should be able to guide Gap further along the existing strategic path. We expect no outsized swings in vision or goals.The board is composed of 10 directors, nine of whom are independent. All directors and executive officers combined own 29% of stock, with members of the Fisher family being the majority of the holders. Total ownership by various members of the Fisher family is 40.7% of outstanding shares and is held by Doris Fisher, John J. Fisher, Robert J. Fisher, William S. Fisher, and Fisher Core Holdings. We think that a high degree of shareownership aligns the board’s interest with shareholders. Over the last five years, Gap’s stock has delivered a 30% compound annual growth rate, well ahead of the S&P 500 which grew at 19%. We are satisfied with management’s use of cash to invest in technology and better supply chain management, to grow high-margin brands and distribution channels, and to return cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.Overview Profile: Gap is a global apparel and accessories retailer for men, women, and children operating under the brands of Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, Piperlime, Athleta, and Intermix. Distribution channels include over 3,000 specialty and outlet stores, online, and franchises. About 77% of revenue is generated in the U.S.
  • 19. and almost 80% of revenue comes from the Gap and Old Navy brands.S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright @ 2014 GPS ISGAP INC (GPS) INCOME STATEMENTFiscal year ends in January. USD in millions except per share data.2010- 012011-012012-012013-012014- 01Revenue14,19714,66414,54915,65116,148YOY growth rate3%-1%8%3%Avg.3%CAGR3%gs19%21%17%32%32%GDP - current $Cost of revenue8,4738,7759,2759,4809,855Gross profit5,7245,8895,2746,1716,293Operating expensesOther operating expenses3,9093,9213,8364,2294,144Total operating expenses3,9093,9213,8364,2294,144Operating income1,8151,9681,4381,9422,1498%- 27%35%11%Avg.7%CAGR4%Interest Expense6748761Other income (expense)714565Income before income taxes1,8161,9821,3691,8612,093Provision for income taxes71477853672681339%39%39%39%39%Avg.39%Net income from continuing operations1,1021,2048331,1351,280Net income1,1021,2048331,1351,2809%- 31%36%13%Avg.7%CAGR4%Net income available to common shareholders1,1021,2048331,1351,280Earnings per shareBasic1.591.891.572.352.78YOY growth rate19%- 17%50%18%Avg.17%CAGR15%Diluted1.581.881.562.332.74W eighted average shares outstandingBasic694636529482461Diluted699641533488467EB ITDA2,4772,6302,0352,5072,690YOY growth rate6%- 23%23%7%Avg.4%CAGR2%ROIC19%24%16%23%24%NOPA T1105119887611821308Invested capital58544970535351265429Free cash flow1760240290820071398 GPS BSGAP INC (GPS) BALANCE SHEETFiscal year ends in January. USD in millions except per share data.2010-012011- 012012-012013-012014-01AssetsCurrent assetsCashCash and cash equivalents2,3481,5611,8851,4601,510Short-term investments22510050Total cash2,5731,6611,8851,5101,51030%19%20%16%15%Receivabl es205297331462Inventories1,4771,6201,6151,7581,928Deferred
  • 20. income taxes193190220179Prepaid expenses260145211242Other current assets161105512102109Total current assets4,6643,9264,3094,1324,430Non-current assetsProperty, plant and equipmentLand1,0861,0931,0961,1011,106Fixtures and equipment3,2493,3403,4233,5423,666Other properties3,0923,1403,2643,2673,387Property and equipment, at cost7,4277,5737,7837,9108,159CapEx-146 -210 -127 -249 Accumulated Depreciation-4,799 -5,010 -5,260 -5,291 -5,401 Property, plant and equipment, net2,6282,5632,5232,6192,758Goodwill999999184180Intangibl e assets615777132131Other long-term assets533420414403350Total non-current assets3,3213,1393,1133,3383,419Total assets7,9857,0657,4227,4707,849Liabilities and stockholders' equityLiabilitiesCurrent liabilitiesShort-term debt5925Accounts payable1,0271,0491,0661,1441,242Taxes payable4150510836Accrued liabilities1,063996395395369Other current liabilities603697773Total current liabilities2,1312,0952,1282,3442,445NWC2,5331,8312,1811,78 81,985702-350 393-197 Non-current liabilitiesLong-term debt8901,6061,2461,369Capital leases933Other long-term liabilities963986973Total non-current liabilities9638902,5392,2322,342Total liabilities3,0942,9854,6674,5764,787Stockholders' equityCommon stock555555Additional paid-in capital2,9352,9392,8672,8642,899Retained earnings10,81511,76712,36413,25914,218Treasury stock-9,069 -10,866 -12,760 -13,465 -14,245 Accumulated other comprehensive income210240229181135Total stockholders' equity4,8914,0802,7552,8943,062Total liabilities and stockholders' equity7,9857,0657,4227,4707,849 GPS CFGAP INC (GPS) Statement of CASH FLOWFiscal year ends in January. USD in millions except per share data.2010- 012011-012012-012013-012014-01Cash Flows From Operating ActivitiesNet income1,1021,2041,1351,280Depreciation &
  • 21. amortization655648592559536Amortization of debt discount/premium and issuance costs-82 -86 -86 -76 -66 Deferred income taxes-50 93-11 -37 69Stock based compensation647758113116Inventory43-127 4-143 -193 Accounts payable40-7 1191105Accrued liabilities-23 -141 -45 68-5 Income taxes payable6466-91 146-74 Other working capital105-38 27703Other non-cash items105590410-66 Net cash provided by operating activities1,9281,7441,3631,9361,705Cash Flows From Investing ActivitiesInvestments in property, plant, and equipment-334 - 557 -548 -659 -670 Property, plant, and equipment reductions1Acquisitions, net-129 Purchases of investments-350 -475 -50 -200 Sales/Maturities of investments12560015015050Other investing charges213-6 -6 -4 Net cash used for investing activities-537 -429 -454 -844 -624 Cash Flows From Financing ActivitiesShort-term borrowing316- 19 Long-term debt issued1,646144Long-term debt repayment-50 -400 Excess tax benefit from stock based compensation4111316Common stock issued174Repurchases of treasury stock-547 -1,959 -2,092 -1,030 -979 Cash dividends paid-234 -252 -236 -240 -321 Other financing activities56705133146Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities-771 -2,127 -602 -1,481 -1,004 Effect of exchange rate changes132517-36 -27 Net change in cash633-787 324-425 50Cash at beginning of period1,7152,3481,5611,8851,460Cash at end of period2,3481,5611,8851,4601,510Free Cash FlowOperating cash flow1,9281,7441,3631,9361,705Capital expenditure-334 -557 -548 -659 -670 Free cash flow1,5941,1878151,2771,035Supplemental schedule of cash flow dataCash paid for income taxes702677599582805Cash paid for interest31458377 GPS RatiosKey Ratios -> ProfitabilityMargins % of Sales2010- 012011-012012-012013-012014- 01Revenue100100100100100COGS59.759.863.860.661.0Gross Margin40.340.236.339.439.0SG&AR&DOther27.526.726.427.02 5.7Operating Margin12.813.49.912.413.3Net Int Inc &
  • 22. Other0.00.1-0.5-0.5-0.4EBT Margin12.813.59.411.913.0Profitability2010-012011-012012- 012013-012014-01Tax Rate %39.339.339.239.038.8Net Margin %7.88.25.77.37.9Asset Turnover (Average)1.82.02.02.12.1Return on Assets %14.216.011.515.216.7Financial Leverage (Average)1.61.72.72.62.6Return on Equity %23.826.824.440.243.0Return on Invested Capital %23.722.416.925.030.7Interest Coverage303.719.522.435.3Key Ratios -> Growth2010-012011-012012-012013-012014- 01Revenue %Year over Year-2.33.3-0.87.63.23-Year Average- 3.8-2.40.13.33.35-Year Average-2.7-1.8-1.8-0.12.110-Year Average2.00.70.50.80.2Operating Income %Year over Year17.38.4-26.935.110.73-Year Average15.614.4-2.42.33.05- Year Average-2.72.44.18.16.810-Year Average- 0.03.115.66.71.4Net Income %Year over Year14.09.3- 30.836.312.83-Year Average12.313.1-4.91.02.15-Year Average- 0.91.61.46.45.810-Year Average-0.23.29.12.2EPS %Year over Year17.919.0-17.049.417.63-Year Average19.321.45.213.813.45-Year Average5.58.710.917.315.410-Year Average2.36.515.79.7Key Ratios -> Cash Flow2010-012011-012012-012013-012014- 01Cash Flow RatiosOperating Cash Flow Growth % YOY- 954Free Cash Flow Growth % YOYCap Ex as a % of Sales2.43.83.84.24.2Free Cash Flow/Sales %11.28.15.68.26.4Free Cash Flow/Net Income1.51.01.01.10.8Key Ratios -> Financial Health2010- 012011-012012-012013-012014-01Balance Sheet Items (in %)Cash & Short-Term Investments32.223.525.420.219.2Accounts Receivable2.94.04.45.9Inventory18.522.921.823.524.6Other Current Assets7.76.26.97.16.8Total Current Assets58.455.658.155.356.4Net PP&E32.936.334.035.135.1Intangibles2.02.22.44.24.0Other Long-Term Assets6.75.95.65.44.5Total Assets100100100100100Accounts
  • 23. Payable12.914.914.415.315.8Short-Term Debt0.80.3Taxes Payable0.50.70.11.50.5Accrued Liabilities13.314.15.35.34.7Other Short-Term Liabilities8.19.39.9Total Current Liabilities26.729.728.731.431.2Long-Term Debt12.621.616.717.4Other Long-Term Liabilities12.112.613.212.4Total Liabilities38.842.362.961.361.0Total Stockholders' Equity61.357.837.138.739.0Total Liabilities & Equity100100100100100Liquidity/Financial Health2010- 012011-012012-012013-012014-01Current Ratio2.21.92.01.81.8Quick Ratio1.20.91.00.80.8Financial Leverage1.61.72.72.62.6Debt/Equity0.20.90.40.5Key Ratios -> Efficiency Ratios2010-012011-012012-012013-012014- 01EfficiencyDays Sales Outstanding5.16.37.39.0Days Inventory64.364.463.764.968.3Payables Period43.143.241.642.544.2Cash Conversion Cycle26.328.329.733.0Receivables Turnover71.558.049.840.7Inventory Turnover5.75.75.75.65.4Fixed Assets Turnover5.15.75.76.16.0Asset Turnover1.82.02.02.12.1 GPD Key StatsKey StatisticsData provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.Trading InformationValuation MeasuresStock Price HistoryMarket Cap (intraday)5:17.15BBeta:1.67Enterprise Value (Nov 19, 2014)3:16.99B52-Week Change3:-4.6%Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):14.5S&P500 52-Week Change3:15.2%Forward P/E (fye Feb 1, 2016)1:12.552-Week High (Sep 4, 2014)3:46.9PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1:1.152-Week Low (Oct 16, 2014)3:35.5Price/Sales (ttm):1.150-Day Moving Average3:38.3Price/Book (mrq):5.8200-Day Moving Average3:41.0Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:1.0Share StatisticsEnterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6:6.5Avg Vol (3 month)3:4,823,180Financial HighlightsAvg Vol (10 day)3:2,984,710Fiscal YearShares Outstanding5:434.86MFiscal Year Ends:2/1/14Float:272.72MMost Recent Quarter
  • 24. (mrq):8/2/14% Held by Insiders1:40.8%Profitability% Held by Institutions1:56.1%Profit Margin (ttm):7.6%Shares Short (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:8.07MOperating Margin (ttm):12.8%Short Ratio (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:1.2Management EffectivenessShort % of Float (as of Oct 31, 2014)3:3.3%Return on Assets (ttm):16.8%Shares Short (prior month)3:7.87MReturn on Equity (ttm):38.6%Dividends & SplitsIncome StatementForward Annual Dividend Rate4:0.88Revenue (ttm):16.31BForward Annual Dividend Yield4:2.20%Revenue Per Share (ttm):36.32Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3:0.86Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):2.9%Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3:2.20%Gross Profit (ttm):6.29B5 Year Average Dividend Yield4:1.90%EBITDA (ttm)6:2.63BPayout Ratio4:31.0%Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):1.24BDividend Date3:1/28/15Diluted EPS (ttm):2.71Ex-Dividend Date4:1/5/15Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):9.6%Last Split Factor (new per old)2:3:02Balance SheetLast Split Date3:6/22/99Total Cash (mrq):1.52BTotal Cash Per Share (mrq):3.49Total Debt (mrq):1.39BTotal Debt/Equity (mrq):47.28Current Ratio (mrq):1.9Book Value Per Share (mrq):6.8Cash Flow StatementOperating Cash Flow (ttm):1.84BLevered Free Cash Flow (ttm):1.12BSee Key Statistics Help for definitions of terms used.Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billionsmrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Aug 2, 2014) ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Aug 2, 2014) yoy = Year Over Year (as of Aug 2, 2014) lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Feb 1, 2014) fye = Fiscal Year Ending1 Data provided by Thomson Reuters2 Data provided by EDGAR Online3 Data derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance4 Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.5 Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.6 EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its reportinghttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/capiq/SIG=10r7m9m4m /*http:/www.capitaliq.com/http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/fin
  • 25. ance/tools/fitakeystats.html Sheet1Bonds being traded and reported in Finra's websiteRatingOutstanding (000)CouponMaturityPriceYTMYears to MaturityCurrent value (000) Note to students -- do not use this folder!Mosaic12/4/13MOS.GDBBB3004.9%11/15/4191.423.8% 28.0274MOS.GSBBB4503.8%11/15/2199.243.9%8.0447MOS.40 6BBB9004.3%11/15/2399.634.3%10.0897MOS.40692BBB5005. 5%11/15/33101.885.3%20.0509MOS.4069206BBB6005.6%11/1 5/43101.795.5%30.06112,750Wt. avg4.6%2,738Potash CorpPOT.GDA35005.9%12/1/36107.445.3%23.0537POT.GEA3 5005.3%5/15/14102.030.7%0.4510POT.GFA35006.5%5/15/191 20.642.4%5.4603POT.GGA35003.8%9/30/15105.150.9%1.8526 POT.GHA35004.9%3/30/20110.353.1%6.3552POT.ABA35005.6 %12/1/40106.205.2%27.0531POT.AAA35003.3%12/1/17105.58 1.8%4.05283,500Wt. avg2.8%3,787Source Finra.org