From WBS to Integrated Master ScheduleGlen Alleman
A step by step guide to increasing the Probability of Program success starting with the WBS, developing the Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule, risk adjusting the IMS, and measuring progress to plan in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.
Establishing schedule margin using monte carlo simulation Glen Alleman
The first order goal is to develop a resource loaded, risk tolerant, Integrated Master Schedule, derived from the Integrated Master Plan that clearly shows the increasing maturity of the program's deliverables, through vertical and horizontal traceability to the program's requirements.
Getting To Done - A Master Class WorkshopGlen Alleman
The Principles, Processes, Practices, and Tools to Increase the Probability of successfully completing Project's On-Tiem, On-Budget, and Needed Capabilities
Understanding the five immutable principles to project success will help project managers deliver on time, on budget when talking projects of any size, in any domain
From WBS to Integrated Master ScheduleGlen Alleman
A step by step guide to increasing the Probability of Program success starting with the WBS, developing the Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule, risk adjusting the IMS, and measuring progress to plan in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers.
Establishing schedule margin using monte carlo simulation Glen Alleman
The first order goal is to develop a resource loaded, risk tolerant, Integrated Master Schedule, derived from the Integrated Master Plan that clearly shows the increasing maturity of the program's deliverables, through vertical and horizontal traceability to the program's requirements.
Getting To Done - A Master Class WorkshopGlen Alleman
The Principles, Processes, Practices, and Tools to Increase the Probability of successfully completing Project's On-Tiem, On-Budget, and Needed Capabilities
Understanding the five immutable principles to project success will help project managers deliver on time, on budget when talking projects of any size, in any domain
Every tool, process, and practice has a dark side. Knowing these is a Critical Success Factor to the integration of EVM and Agile at the desired Maturity Level.
Both Earned Value Management and Agile have Dark Sides. Things that are not talked about in public.
But when they are Integrated, each provides a solution for the problems of the other.
Assess current and desired Maturity for Agile and EVM is the starting point for integrating these two processes.
Making Agile Development work in Government ContractingGlen Alleman
Before any of the current “agile” development
methods, Earned Value Management provided information
for planning and controlling complex projects by
measuring how much “value” was produced for a given
cost in a period of time. One shortcoming of an agile
development method is its inability to forecast the future
cost and schedule of the project beyond the use of “yesterdays
weather” metrics. These agile methods assume
the delivered value, “velocity” in the case of XP, is compared
with the estimated value – this is a simple comparison
between budget and actual cost resulting in a Cost
Variance.
Monte Carlo Simulation for Agile DevelopmentGlen Alleman
Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires making decisions with models of that uncertainty. Monte Carlo Simulation and related approaches are the basis of making informed decisions in the presence of uncertainty
The notion of integrating cost, schedule, technical performance, and risk is possible in theory. In practice care is needed to assure credible information is provided to the Program Manager.
Capabilities‒Based Planning the capabilities needed to accomplish a mission or fulfill a business strategy
Only when capabilities are defined can we start with requirements elicitation
Risk Management is essential for the success of any significant project. Information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes is often unknown until the project is underway.
The management of risk is a critical success factor of any project or program. This document is a collection of risk management categories that are used to ask the question “did you think about this risk and its impact on our probability of success?”
Showing how to Increase the Probability of Project Success by applying the ...Glen Alleman
All projects ‒ Traditional and Agile ‒ operate in the presence of uncertainty that creates risk.
Five Immutable Principles and their supporting Processes and Practices can be used to increase the probability of success in the presence of these uncertainties.
Probabilistic Schedule and Cost AnalysisGlen Alleman
An overview of the probabilistic risk analysis processes that can be applied to a program. Although it may not appear to be a “simple” overview, this material is the tip of the iceberg of this complex topic.
Just schedule analysis has been addressed in detail here. The cost aspects of forecasting and simulation must be addressed as well to complete the connections between schedule and cost.
Probabilistic cost will be surveyed here, but an in depth review is for a later time.
Project Success: The Basis of the Five Immutable PrinciplesGlen Alleman
Some people in the field talk about the “basic tenets” of project management. Where do these come from? Some say they come from hands-on experience, anecdotal “best practices,” and the good old “school of hard knocks.”
Published in The Public Manager, Vol. 43, No. 3, Fall 2014
With uncertainty comes opportunity. But if a project manager is consumed with managing the risks, there is little time to manage the opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure; it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
IMP & WBS - Getting Both Right is ParamountGlen Alleman
WBS is the starting point for program success. It tells us what DONE looks like in terms of deliverables.
Integrated Master Plan (IMP) tells us how the increasing maturity of the deliverables will be assessed at each Program Event.
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) tells us the order of the Work Packages needed to produce this increasing maturity.
Control Account Plan (CAP) defines the authorized scope, budget, and period of performance for the work that produces the deliverables defined in the WBS, assessed in the IMP, and sequenced in the IMS.
Increasing the probability of program successGlen Alleman
Program Success starts and end with Process. Along the way, people and tools are needed, but process is the foundation of program success. These processes start with the Concept of Operations, describing what Capabilities are needed by the stakeholder to accomplish the mission of the program. Assessment of progress to plan must be made in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Measures of Effectiveness are defined by the Government. Measures of Performance and Technical Performance Measures are defined by Industry.
This presentation show how to perform project risk analysis with uncertainties defined using risk events and event chains.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
Every tool, process, and practice has a dark side. Knowing these is a Critical Success Factor to the integration of EVM and Agile at the desired Maturity Level.
Both Earned Value Management and Agile have Dark Sides. Things that are not talked about in public.
But when they are Integrated, each provides a solution for the problems of the other.
Assess current and desired Maturity for Agile and EVM is the starting point for integrating these two processes.
Making Agile Development work in Government ContractingGlen Alleman
Before any of the current “agile” development
methods, Earned Value Management provided information
for planning and controlling complex projects by
measuring how much “value” was produced for a given
cost in a period of time. One shortcoming of an agile
development method is its inability to forecast the future
cost and schedule of the project beyond the use of “yesterdays
weather” metrics. These agile methods assume
the delivered value, “velocity” in the case of XP, is compared
with the estimated value – this is a simple comparison
between budget and actual cost resulting in a Cost
Variance.
Monte Carlo Simulation for Agile DevelopmentGlen Alleman
Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires making decisions with models of that uncertainty. Monte Carlo Simulation and related approaches are the basis of making informed decisions in the presence of uncertainty
The notion of integrating cost, schedule, technical performance, and risk is possible in theory. In practice care is needed to assure credible information is provided to the Program Manager.
Capabilities‒Based Planning the capabilities needed to accomplish a mission or fulfill a business strategy
Only when capabilities are defined can we start with requirements elicitation
Risk Management is essential for the success of any significant project. Information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes is often unknown until the project is underway.
The management of risk is a critical success factor of any project or program. This document is a collection of risk management categories that are used to ask the question “did you think about this risk and its impact on our probability of success?”
Showing how to Increase the Probability of Project Success by applying the ...Glen Alleman
All projects ‒ Traditional and Agile ‒ operate in the presence of uncertainty that creates risk.
Five Immutable Principles and their supporting Processes and Practices can be used to increase the probability of success in the presence of these uncertainties.
Probabilistic Schedule and Cost AnalysisGlen Alleman
An overview of the probabilistic risk analysis processes that can be applied to a program. Although it may not appear to be a “simple” overview, this material is the tip of the iceberg of this complex topic.
Just schedule analysis has been addressed in detail here. The cost aspects of forecasting and simulation must be addressed as well to complete the connections between schedule and cost.
Probabilistic cost will be surveyed here, but an in depth review is for a later time.
Project Success: The Basis of the Five Immutable PrinciplesGlen Alleman
Some people in the field talk about the “basic tenets” of project management. Where do these come from? Some say they come from hands-on experience, anecdotal “best practices,” and the good old “school of hard knocks.”
Published in The Public Manager, Vol. 43, No. 3, Fall 2014
With uncertainty comes opportunity. But if a project manager is consumed with managing the risks, there is little time to manage the opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure; it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
IMP & WBS - Getting Both Right is ParamountGlen Alleman
WBS is the starting point for program success. It tells us what DONE looks like in terms of deliverables.
Integrated Master Plan (IMP) tells us how the increasing maturity of the deliverables will be assessed at each Program Event.
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) tells us the order of the Work Packages needed to produce this increasing maturity.
Control Account Plan (CAP) defines the authorized scope, budget, and period of performance for the work that produces the deliverables defined in the WBS, assessed in the IMP, and sequenced in the IMS.
Increasing the probability of program successGlen Alleman
Program Success starts and end with Process. Along the way, people and tools are needed, but process is the foundation of program success. These processes start with the Concept of Operations, describing what Capabilities are needed by the stakeholder to accomplish the mission of the program. Assessment of progress to plan must be made in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Measures of Effectiveness are defined by the Government. Measures of Performance and Technical Performance Measures are defined by Industry.
This presentation show how to perform project risk analysis with uncertainties defined using risk events and event chains.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
Improved Schedule Risk Analysis through Metric AssessmentAcumen
This paper discusses the importance of establishing a sound schedule basis and ensuring valid risk inputs so as to generate an accurate and realistic schedule risk model. A technique for ensuring both of these criteria is discussed using specific metrics targeted at risk model validation.
www.projectacumen.com
@projectacumen
RiskyProject Software.
Overview of RiskyProject project risk management and risk analysis software: features and benefits.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
How Traditional Risk Reporting Has Let Us DownAcumen
This white paper discusses risk reporting techniques and ways of interpreting risk analysis results that actually enable the project team to make pro-active changes in reducing their risk exposure.
Building a risk tolerant integrated master scheduleGlen Alleman
Traditional approaches to planning, scheduling, and managing technical performance are not adequate to defend against these disruptions. This paper outlines the six steps for building a risk-tolerant schedule, using a field-proven approach.
Its all about risk, risk analysis, method, pros and cons, important factors and stake holders.
Ignoring risk does not make the risk go way. So organizations and stake holders has to accept some certain degree of risk which we called it risk tolerance.
Adopting the Quadratic Mean Process to Quantify the Qualitative Risk AnalysisRicardo Viana Vargas
The objective of this paper is to propose a mathematical process to turn the results of a qualitative risk analysis into numeric indicators to support better decisions regarding risk response strategies.
Using a five-level scale for probability and a set of scales to measure different aspects of the impact and time horizon, a simple mathematical process is developed using the quadratic mean (also known as root mean square) to calculate the numerical exposition of the risk and consequently, the numerical exposition of the project risks.
This paper also supports the reduction of intuitive thinking when evaluating risks, often subject to illusions, which can cause perception errors. These predictable mental errors, such as overconfidence, confirmation traps, optimism bias, zero-risk bias, sunk-cost effect, and others often lead to the underestimation of costs and effort, poor resource planning, and other low-quality decisions (VIRINE, 2010).
Presenting this set of slides with name - Project Assignments PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The stages in this process are Project Assignments, Project Management, Project Tasks.
Planning projects usually starts with tasks and milestones. The planner gathers this information from the participants – customers, engineers, subject matter experts. This information is usually arranged in the form of activities and milestones. PMBOK defines “project time management” in this manner. The activities are then sequenced according to the projects needs and mandatory dependencies.
Increasing the Probability of Project SuccessGlen Alleman
Risk Management is essential for development and production programs. Information about key cost, performance and schedule attributes are often uncertain or unknown until late in the program.
Risk issues that can be identified early in the program, which may potentially impact the program, termed Known Unknowns, can be alleviated with good risk management. -- Effective Risk Management 2nd Edition, Page 1, Edmund Conrow, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2003
Cost and schedule growth for complex projects is created when unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, inadequate risk assessments, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management, contribute to project technical and programmatic shortfalls
From Principles to Strategies for Systems EngineeringGlen Alleman
From Principles to Strategies How to apply Principles, Practices, and Processes of Systems Engineering to solve complex technical, operational,
and organizational problems
Building a Credible Performance Measurement BaselineGlen Alleman
Establishing a credible Performance Measurement Baseline, with a risk adjusted Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule, starts with the WBS and connects Technical Measures of progress to Earned Value
Starting with the development of a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimate of work and duration, creating the Product Roadmap and Release Plan, the Product and Sprint Backlogs, executing and statusing the Sprint, and informing the Earned Value Management Systems, using Physical Percent Complete of progress to plan.
Program Management Office Lean Software Development and Six SigmaGlen Alleman
Successfully combining a PMO, Agile, and Lean / 6 starts with understanding what benefit each paradigm brings to the table. Architecting a solution for the enterprise requires assembling a “Systems” with processes, people, and principles – all sharing the goal of business improvement.
This resource document describes the Program Governance Road map for product development, deployment, and sustainment of products and services in compliance with CMS guidance, ITIL IT management, CMMI best practices, and other guidance to assure high quality software is deployed for sustained operational success in mission critical domains.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
Slack (or Teams) Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Soluti...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on the notifications, alerts, and approval requests using Slack for Bonterra Impact Management. The solutions covered in this webinar can also be deployed for Microsoft Teams.
Interested in deploying notification automations for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
Transcript: Selling digital books in 2024: Insights from industry leaders - T...BookNet Canada
The publishing industry has been selling digital audiobooks and ebooks for over a decade and has found its groove. What’s changed? What has stayed the same? Where do we go from here? Join a group of leading sales peers from across the industry for a conversation about the lessons learned since the popularization of digital books, best practices, digital book supply chain management, and more.
Link to video recording: https://bnctechforum.ca/sessions/selling-digital-books-in-2024-insights-from-industry-leaders/
Presented by BookNet Canada on May 28, 2024, with support from the Department of Canadian Heritage.
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a buttonDianaGray10
Here is something new! In our next Connector Corner webinar, we will demonstrate how you can use a single workflow to:
Create a campaign using Mailchimp with merge tags/fields
Send an interactive Slack channel message (using buttons)
Have the message received by managers and peers along with a test email for review
But there’s more:
In a second workflow supporting the same use case, you’ll see:
Your campaign sent to target colleagues for approval
If the “Approve” button is clicked, a Jira/Zendesk ticket is created for the marketing design team
But—if the “Reject” button is pushed, colleagues will be alerted via Slack message
Join us to learn more about this new, human-in-the-loop capability, brought to you by Integration Service connectors.
And...
Speakers:
Akshay Agnihotri, Product Manager
Charlie Greenberg, Host
Generating a custom Ruby SDK for your web service or Rails API using Smithyg2nightmarescribd
Have you ever wanted a Ruby client API to communicate with your web service? Smithy is a protocol-agnostic language for defining services and SDKs. Smithy Ruby is an implementation of Smithy that generates a Ruby SDK using a Smithy model. In this talk, we will explore Smithy and Smithy Ruby to learn how to generate custom feature-rich SDKs that can communicate with any web service, such as a Rails JSON API.
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 3. In this session, we will cover desktop automation along with UI automation.
Topics covered:
UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
2. Assessing Schedule Risk is One Step
2
Probability of Success P(s)
Assesses a project’s
performance using 4 simple
metrics.
It is the Planning metric that
can be assessed using two
methods deployed by Lewis &
Fowler
Monte Carlo Simulation
Schedule Health
3. 3
The Data Elements of a Project are Random Variables
Cost, Schedule, Technical Performance and Risk
Each is drawn from a
probability
distribution.
The shape of this
distribution has direct
impact on the
confidence of the
outcome.
Modeling this
probability
distributions and
their outcomes is
what a Monte Carlo
tool does.
4. The Schedule Assessment Process
Topology
Task with no successors
Tasks with no
predecessors
Constraints
Must Finish On
Finish No Later Than
Must Start On
Start No Later Than
Margin analysis
Task duration
probability
distributions
Confidence of
completing on or
before a planned
date
Schedule Health Schedule Risk
5. Every Manager Should Know…
5
When will this project finish?
Is the project’s schedule realistic and achievable?
What will it cost when we are done?
How is the project performing against its plan?
What deliverables are slipping?
How are we going to get the deliverables back on schedule?
What does past performance say about the future performance?
What is the impact on the schedule of any change requests?
Is there enough schedule slack and reserve to cover the risk?
Is there enough management reserve to cover any overrun?
Where is the risk in the schedule?
How can we get the work done sooner to reduce risk?
How can we recover from any foreseen delays?
How can we work around a problem?
7. 7
Monte Carlo Risk analysis starts with a credible
schedule and defines the probabilistic behavior of
each activities and how it drives the deliverables
The Risk+ tool sets the upper and lower bounds of the possible durations
8. 8
Date: 2/25/2009 3:34:12 PM
Samples: 300
Unique ID: 30
Name: Final Testing
Completion Std Deviation: 5.51d
95% Confidence Interval: 0.62d
Each bar represents 2d
Completion Date
Frequency
CumulativeProbability
Tue 2/11/03Mon 1/20/03 Mon 3/3/03
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16 Completion Probability Table
Prob ProbDate Date
0.05 Wed 1/29/03
0.10 Fri 1/31/03
0.15 Tue 2/4/03
0.20 Wed 2/5/03
0.25 Wed 2/5/03
0.30 Thu 2/6/03
0.35 Fri 2/7/03
0.40 Mon 2/10/03
0.45 Mon 2/10/03
0.50 Tue 2/11/03
0.55 Wed 2/12/03
0.60 Thu 2/13/03
0.65 Fri 2/14/03
0.70 Fri 2/14/03
0.75 Mon 2/17/03
0.80 Tue 2/18/03
0.85 Wed 2/19/03
0.90 Thu 2/20/03
0.95 Tue 2/25/03
1.00 Mon 3/3/03
The output of Risk+ is a Probability Distribution Function and a
Cumulative Distribution of all the possible dates that “watched”
activity could take.
This shows the Confidence in the target date – 2/10/3
It shows 40% chance of completely on or before 2/10/03
9. Beneficial Outcomes
A confidence metric that the project will complete
on or before the planned date
Measures of the integrity of the activity network
Overly constrained plan
Activities with no dependencies
Visibility into the Probability of Success from a
schedule point of view